Finley Factor: Is Danica Really Any Good?

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Danica. Danica. Danica. Danica. Danica. Danica. Danica. Danica. Danica. Danica.

I’m still amazed at how popular this person is, in spite of having little to show for it after two years in full-time Sprint Cup competition.

It’s kind of sad, really. All of this talk of Danica being the face of women drivers in NASCAR, all four of them. I think there can be great female drivers. As a non-contact sport there is no doubt in my mind a woman can do it against men.

I think there are great female drivers. Johanna Long showed a lot of promise in the XFINITY series a couple of years ago. But because she can’t find sponsorship, she can’t find a ride. Let’s not pretend, however, this is a gender problem. It’s a NASCAR problem, where young drivers with promising careers, like Bubba Wallace Jr., Jeremy Clements or Chad Boat, regardless of gender, just cannot catch a break and get a single big company sponsor behind them. But, hey, that’s another Factor for another day.

Anyway, here is Danica. What happens when we take away the fact that yes, she is a she, and compare her fair and equally? What I did during the last month or so is simple. Using Racing Reference for stat lines, I have ranked the 52 drivers who competed in either 2013 or 2014 who had or completed two full-time seasons in those years, using only those year’s stats. I’ve also added Kyle Larson and Austin Dillon to the ranking, as both had comparable rankings already towards the rest of the field. What this basically means is that only the first two seasons, along with anything beforehand, matter in this ranking. For example, Tony Stewart won nine races in 1999 and 2000, his first two seasons in Cup, and thus he is listed as having nine wins in the ranking. However, his three victories in 2001 or anything else he has done since 2000 is not part of the ranking. This way, Danica and everybody else ranked are on completely equal footing. But first, Phoenix preview!

Favorite

Kevin Harvick is on a complete roll right now, with the last six Cup races ending with him either winning or in second. It won’t stop this weekend, as Harvick goes to his best racetrack. With an average finish of fourth in the last four races, and having won the last three races here, expect Happy to bring home another victory.

One to Watch

Dale Earnhardt Jr. has had a good start to the season. He has had an average finish of 4.8 in the last four starts here and is the only driver to have finished in the top 10 in all four of the last races. Don’t expect Earnhardt Jr. to win but another solid top five run would shock nobody.

Dark horse

This is one of Tony Stewart’s best race tracks, and certainly one he knows best, having raced here in various series for over 20 years. If there was ever a track for Stewart to turn his luck around at, it’s here.

Before I show the ranking, I would like to point out something. To those out there who do not fully understand NASCAR, to compare drivers you must remember that a driver may only be as good as their team and equipment 90 percent of the time. It’s like in football, where Tom Brady is such a great QB because he’s on the best team, whereas if he were drafted to the Jaguars at the start of his career I doubt we’d know his name.

Many claim that Danica has never had good equipment. This is a flat out lie. Why? Because her teammate won the Sprint Cup championship last year. She is part of Stewart-Haas Racing, which runs Hendrick Motorsport cars, whose cars have won eight of the last nine championships, two of which came from Stewart-Haas Racing. To say “Well, she can’t drive well because she isn’t in good equipment” is like saying “JR Motorsports needs to fire Chase Elliott and hire Jeffery Earnhardt, because Chase has no future and Jeffery is family.” It’s moronic and makes absolutely no sense. And if you turn around and say that Jimmie Johnson only wins because he has the best car IN SPITE of both the 48 and 10 being made at virtually the same shop, that’s double jeopardy stupid. Anyway, on with the list:

Key: Drivers ranked by wins, then top fives, then top 10s in their first two full time seasons as well as any races done beforehand. Attempting at least 30 races equals a full time season.

1^st Ryan Newman- 9 wins, 33 top fives, 46 top tens.

2^nd Tony Stewart- 9 wins, 24 top fives, 44 top tens.

3^rd Jimmie Johnson- 6 wins, 20 top fives, 41 top tens.

4^th Dale Earnhardt Jr.- 5 wins, 12 top fives, 20 top tens.

5^th Carl Edwards- 4 wins, 24 top fives, 43 top tens.

6^th Kurt Busch- 4 wins, 15 top fives, 26 top tens

7^th Brad Keselowski- 4 wins, 11 top fives, 18 top tens.

8^th Denny Hamlin- 3 wins, 20 top fives, 38 top tens.

9^th Kyle Busch- 3 wins, 19 top fives, 31 top tens.

10^th Greg Biffle- 3 wins, 7 top fives, 14 top tens.

11^th Jeff Gordon- 2 wins, 14 top fives, 25 top tens.

12^th Kasey Kahne- 1 win, 18 top fives, 22 top tens.

13^th Jamie McMurray- 1 win, 15 top fives, 38 top tens.

14^th Joey Logano- 1 win, 10 top fives, 23 top tens.

15^th Terry Labonte- 1 win, 9 top fives, 32 top tens.

16^th Clint Bowyer- 1 win, 9 top fives, 28 top tens

17^th Morgan Shepard- 1 win, 9 top fives, 24 top tens.

18^th Matt Kenseth- 1 win, 9 top fives, 22 top tens.

19^th Martin Truex Jr.- 1 win, 9 top fives, 20 top tens.

20^th Juan Pablo Montoya- 1 win, 5 top fives, 9 top tens.

21^st David Ragan- No wins, 8 top fives, 17 top tens.

21^st Kyle Larson*- No wins, 8 top fives, 17 top tens.

23^rd Mark Martin- No wins, 7 top fives, 23 top tens.

24^th Marcos Ambrose- No wins, 7 top fives, 11 top tens.

25^th Brian Vickers- No wins, 5 top fives, 14 top tens.

26^th Reed Sorenson- No wins, 4 top fives, 11 top tens.

27^th Aric Almirola- No wins, 3 top fives, 12 top tens.

28^th Scott Riggs- No wins, 3 top fives, 6 top tens.

29^th Jeff Burton- No wins, 3 top fives, 5 top tens.

30^th Ricky Stenhouse Jr.- No wins, 2 top fives, 8 top tens.

31^st Joe Nemechek- No wins, 2 top fives, 7 top tens.

31^st Sam Hornish Jr.- No wins, 2 top fives, 7 top tens

33^rd David Gilliland- No wins, 2 top fives, 4 top tens.

34^th Casey Mears- No wins, 1 top five, 9 top tens.

35^th Bobby Labonte- No wins, 1 top five, 8 top tens.

36^th J.J. Yeley- No wins, 1 top five, 6 top tens.

37^th Mike Bliss- No wins, 1 top five, 5 top tens.

38^th Austin Dillon*- No wins, 1 top five, 4 top tens.

39^th Scott Speed- No wins, 1 top five, 3 top tens.

40^th Paul Menard- No wins, 1 top five, 2 top tens.

40^th Mike Wallace- No wins, 1 top five, 2 top tens.

42^nd Dave Blaney- No wins, no top fives, 8 top tens.

43^rd Ken Schrader- No wins, no top fives, 7 top tens.

44^th David Reutimann- No wins, no top fives, 4 top tens.

44^th Danica Patrick- No wins, no top fives, 4 top tens.

46^th David Stremme- No wins, no top fives, 3 top tens.

47^th A.J. Allmendinger- No wins, no top fives, 2 top tens.

48^th Elliott Sadler- No wins, no top fives, 2 top tens.

49^th Travis Kvapil- No wins, no top fives, 2 top tens.

50^th Michael Waltrip- No wins, no top fives, 1 top ten.

Josh Wise- N/A

Landon Cassill- N/A

Michael McDowell- N/A

Regan Smith- N/A

*=Before Daytona statline, second season so far ignored.

Keeping in mind what I said beforehand, literally everybody on this list is in either comparable equipment or, for most, worse equipment than Patrick. They also usually have less experience racing in stock cars. Take A.J. Allmendinger, for instance. His rookie year, 2007, was plagued with a horrible team, a new car, an old car, less than a year of racing stock cars beforehand, and a new make of car (Toyota). He was never in a car that could break the speed limit on pit road until 2009, his third year in the sport, with Petty. Josh Wise and Landon Cassill have never been in even mediocre equipment. Perhaps most incredible to me, however, is just how well Kyle Larson has done. The youngster who I wrote about being the next big thing nearly two years ago is just that. And he has only had experience running cars on pavement since 2012, when Patrick had been running in NASCAR for two years up to that point and around seven years’ experience in national racing leagues (IndyCar).

There’s no doubting Danica has made some progress, wrecking less, but at her age and with her level of experience, the learning process is now over. If I where in charge of Stewart-Haas, I’d know what I’d do: not renew her contract at the end of the season..

Comments

13 responses to “Finley Factor: Is Danica Really Any Good?”

March 16, 2015

Ralph DerMattia

Danica Patrick is a J O K E !! She is a failed femnazi/media attempt to get women into racing, where they OBVIOUSLY don’t belong! There are more honest politicians than there are good women race car drivers. THEY SUCK, liberals! Face it! THEY SUCK!

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March 15, 2015

David

What seems to be missing is the basic concept that racing began when there was more than one. To compete in racing one must have SOME atheletic ability. Just the thrill of personal engagement is a heck of an emotional boost. A long time ago somebody got smart and realized money could be made charging non-competitors to watch. Some businesses realized supporting a particular competitor or competition helped improve business. NASCAR is basically nothing more than a semi-scripted “Annie Get your Gun”on Broadway, “Lawence of Arabia”in the movie theater, or Barnum and Bailey come to town. Poop, even the US Olimpic team is sponsored, never mind the Olimpics themselves. The thrill of competing in high powered cars under specific rules on a relatively safe for the spectators closed course is a tremendous adrenaline rush, something some of us enjoy watching. The closest I can come to actually participating is paying my quarter at the local go-cart track and motoring around a 100 yard wobbly round line of asphalt competing with 5 year olds for 5 minutes. I’m 67. I recognize Nascar for what it is, a 3 or 4 hour, maybe even 5 hour indulgence of an intense adrenalin rush of watching extreemly high powered car drivers performing for me the best they are capable and I love those guys and girls for it. And, I appreciate NASCAR doing whatever it can to offer that opportunity for me to watch while I sit back in my favorite chair with a bag of chips and a beer. I don’t know why I torture myself reading articles and comments of self-indulgent holier than me people lamenting or attacking things they have no control of. And, really, the only persons who might Honestly have any real interest with the ability ranking of the various drivers and/or teams is current or potential sponsors. Those lamenting can speak with their wallets or remote clicker. DVDing a race still captures advertizements and “Boogity-Boogity-Boogity Lets Go Racin Boys N Girl!!!”.
Maybe I should lobby the US Congress to designate a National NASCAR Day to celebrate all the participants who have willingly given me so much, like Mothers Day. I say Thank You to NASCAR and all the willing participants. (And Danica too)
David Kelley

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March 15, 2015

Kevin Jadecat

Excellent article, Mr Finley!! To add more context, I’d like to offer a few more stats on Ms Patrick.

In 2014, she had the second lowest GFPR of all drivers who ran at least 35 races. GFPR = Green Flag Pass Ratio, or, the number of times a car passes, or gets passed, on the race track and only under green flag conditions. Patrick’s 2014 GFPR was -289. This means that she was passed 289 more times than she passed anyone. This was second only to Brian Vickers’ -291, but he didn’t pass her until Homestead. She also had the 2nd lowest number of races with a positive GFPR at 10. Only Alex Bowman had fewer, at 8.

Here is the chart I made for this stat; https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1QuvZmBF9LFnxNvts7eV2HqbpJpx-eqaK8j5gDuDTlog/pubhtml

Second, in 2013, Danica finished P27 in final Cup points. For perspective, there were only 32 drivers who ran at least 35 races (included in that count are Hamlin, 32 races and Mark Martin, 28 races, but finished in front of her). This means that there were only 5 full schedule drivers that finished behind her in points. Those five drivers were; David Ragan, Dave Blaney, T Kvapil, JJ Yeley and David Reutimann. All five drivers are vastly underfunded teams compared to Danica’s HMS equipment. This means that Danica was the LAST PLACE car of drivers who are on top tier teams.

She didn’t fair any better in 2014, where she finished P28 amongst 36 drivers who ran at least 35 races (this includes Tony Stewart who only ran 33 races, but finished ahead of her). The 8 full schedule drivers that finished below her were; Michael Annett, Cole Whitt, Alex Bowman, Justin Allgaier, David Gilliland, David Ragan, Reed Sorenson and Josh Wise. 4 rookies and all 8 on vastly underfunded teams compared to Danica. So, once again, in 2014, Danica was the lowest finishing top tier team driver.

Third, Danica “gained” a total of 137 positions through PTA, or Position Through Attrition, or moving up the leaderboard solely because a car, or cars, in front of her dropped out of the race, or were put many laps back, because of a crash, mechanical issues, penalties or any other reason.

Fourth, Danica didn’t wreck as much in 2014 because she didn’t RACE as much in 2014 as she tried to do in 2013. This is shown by the PTA and GFPR numbers above. She just held point and waited for bad things to happen to drivers ahead of her. Thus lowering her crash stats.

Fifth and final, in 2014, Danica had the second highest number of Lucky Dogs of all drivers who ran at least 35 races, at 15. Second only to McMurray at 16 (and 8 of his came in one race at Talladega). This chart is at: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ccRQ_S6PptL8AWi4Fxfw6NhAkfIJd8gb4YNCeFW-6nQ/pubhtml

Already in 2015, Danica has “gained” 22 positions via PTA. Her GFPR is already at -12 and she already has a season total of being 4 laps down (she had a total of being 52 total laps down in 2014)

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March 15, 2015

Scott

Well said Michael… Now let’s see the danica fans come in with their ” you couldn’t do any better” comments…

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March 15, 2015

Joe Winkelmann Jr

There seems to be a glaring omission on this list. Where is Kevin Harvick? I suspect he would drop the bottom 30 or so down a notch.

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1. March 17, 2015
  
  Michael Finley
  
  Correct. When putting together this article I got all of the stats together in the pre-season then went through and ranked them on Word a couple of months later. For whatever reason I missed Harvick.
  He would be 10th with 3 victories, 11 top fives, 24 top tens. Everybody currently on the list behind Kyle Busch should be a rank below.
  
  Reply
March 15, 2015

Eddy S.

Bit of an incomplete picture. She’s been outperforming her boss this year. And, if she’s still able to bring in the sponsor dollars, you would rank pretty low in business acumen by opting not to renew her contract.

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March 15, 2015

Ken

Danica has a ride as long as she is an attractive celebrity. She will lose her ride when she gets older and her celebrity fades. She is starting to remind me of an aging movie star approaching the end of their career (and are quickly forgotten). I don’t think she will be anywhere near racing when she is the age of the young driver’s mothers.

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March 15, 2015

NASCARJeff

The answer is No!

But MustangRyan makes a very good point, it is all about money so SHR, Chevrolet and Go Daddy could give a crap where she finishes.

There are many talented female drivers competing for seats…Danica Patrick is just not one of them.

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March 15, 2015

Steven

Pretty good evaluation except the Dinger should be way ahead of Danicant.

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1. March 17, 2015
  
  Michael Finley
  
  Allmendinger was stuck on Red Bull the first two seasons of his career, with even less experience running stock cars than Montoya. He and the team missed a lot of races and didn’t really get a chance until he finished 5th in the 2009 Daytona 500 with Petty, at the start of his third year in Cup.
  
  Reply
March 15, 2015

Anne

Yes, she brings in money to SHR..that I suspect will soon dry up, and should. But hey it’s not my money. Can somebody please give me hard money facts on ROI? You can’t other than merchandise sales. I am glad somebody in the print media looked this very accessible information up, it is there for all the lovers and haters to see. But the promoters of this waste of a good seat rely on the lazy not to look it up, it would pull the curtain away and expose their bull****. She sucks.

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March 13, 2015

MustangRyan

NASCAR is a business first and foremost. The only thing that is more important than winning is remaining profitable. If Danica brings enough sponsor dollars, her seat at SHR will not go away, no matter how poorly she finishes each week. The extra money coming in from GoDaddy is not easily replaceable, even if there is a better driver in the fourth Stewart-Haas car. This is why Ryan Newman was let go two years ago instead of Danica. She brought the sponsor money that he couldn’t.

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