Author: Ron Thornton

Hot 20 – In search of the Sprint Cup series 2014 driver of the year

As justly proud I am of my ancestors, there is a downside to not being born a France. I could have a dream, wake in the morning and jot it all down on a napkin, and there is no chance in hell that it could be NASCAR policy by the afternoon. Some might think that a good thing. I think the circuit’s new emphasis on winning is also a good thing.

Just win baby, and it is a philosophy many of us can agree with. As I do not have to worry about television numbers or game seven moments, abandoning the Chase and adding 22 points to the winner’s total to a maximum of 70 seems just as good a way as any to determine just who was the most successful any given season.

Unless the champion at the end of the season turns out to be someone most can not accept, the new Chase elimination system will eventually be accepted. I mean, unless wins and wins alone determine who is king, then there has always been room for argument as to whether a champ was worthy or not.

We think back to 2003 when one race winner Matt Kenseth won the title over eight race winner Ryan Newman. Still, Kenseth won his crown using the same points system that had been in place for more than thirty years. Back in 1973, David Pearson won 11, Richard Petty had six, but the title that year went to single race victor Benny Parsons. No one seems to be arguing about that outcome today.

As I am not a France, I have no championship to bestow. However, I am interested in what keeping the present points system, but making a win worth between 25 and 28 points more than the runner-up, would have given us over a 36 race, non-Chase, season. The leader might not wind up our champion, but he sure would be my driver of the year.

Our Hot 20 as we head to Las Vegas are…

Pos	Driver	Points	Wins
1	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.	112	1
2	Kevin Harvick	101	1
3	Jeff Gordon	80	0
4	Jimmie Johnson	78	0
5	Joey Logano	75	0
6	Kyle Busch	71	0
7	Matt Kenseth	70	0
8	Denny Hamlin	68	0
9	Carl Edwards	65	0
10	Casey Mears	64	0
11	Greg Biffle	64	0
12	Jamie McMurray	64	0
13	Ricky Stenhouse, Jr.	63	0
14	Ryan Newman	60	0
15	Austin Dillon	56	0
16	Marcos Ambrose	49	0
17	Kasey Kahne	47	0
18	Reed Sorenson	41	0
19	A.J. Allmendinger	37	0
20	Tony Stewart	37	0

March 6, 2014

The season’s most successful is often not NASCAR’s champion

In 1949, Red Byron and Bob Flock each won two of the eight races run that inaugural NASCAR season. Bryon had more points, so he was the champion. The next year they ran 19 events with Curtis Turner winning four, Dick Linder had three, but one race winner Bill Rexford was king, and so it began.

While the fans revered the winners, winning never seemed that big a deal to NASCAR. Under the modern era’s first points system, a win might move the victor almost two full positions up on the runner-up. The present system could be worth up to six spots. In essence, wins contributed to the points total, but not by any great amount over those who followed behind.

That changes this year, where wins trump points. While they still do not shakeup the points total, a win puts one in the Chase and a win keeps one in the Chase. Points still have meaning, as they can get a winless driver into the Chase, enough can keep a winless driver in the Chase, and most points earned among the final four at Homestead will win a championship. Still, for the first time, wins trump points.

Of the 65 annual champions declared since 1949, a majority of our champions also claimed the most wins that season. Barely. 52% have been the most successful and won the title the same season. However, in seven of those seasons, the gap in victories between the champion and the winningest driver has been seven or more. In 2003, Ryan Newman won eight but still lost the crown to single race winner Matt Kenseth. Still, even that pales compared to 1963 where Richard Petty won 14, but it was three race winner Joe Weatherly with the trophy. Points were king, as they certainly have been in ten of the past 15 years, and in six of the past ten since the advent of the Chase.

Some might argue that a big jump in points for a victory might have been a solution, but there is no arguing that winning now definitely has its benefits. As I have mentioned before, the most successful driver in a race is the one who crosses the line first. It goes to reason that the most successful driver in a season has done the same more times than anyone else. Here is a look at those who have been the most successful in doing so each season since 1949.

Year	Most Wins	Victories	Runner-up	Victories	Season Champion	Victories
1949	Red Byron	2	Bob Flock	2	Red Byron	2
1950	Curtis Turner	4	Dick Linder	3	Bill Rexford	1
1951	Fonty Flock	8	Herb Thomas	7	Herb Thomas	7
1952	Tim Flock	8	Herb Thomas	8	Tim Flock	8
1953	Herb Thomas	12	Lee Petty	5	Herb Thomas	12
1954	Herb Thomas	12	Lee Petty	7	Lee Petty	7
1955	Tim Flock	18	Lee Petty	6	Tim Flock	18
1956	Buck Baker	14	Speedy Thompson	8	Buck Baker	14
1957	Buck Baker	10	Fireball Roberts	8	Buck Baker	10
1958	Lee Petty	7	Junior Johnson	6	Lee Petty	7
1959	Lee Petty	11	Rex White	5	Lee Petty	11
1960	Rex White	6	Ned Jarrett	5	Rex White	6
1961	Joe Weatherly	9	Rex White	7	Ned Jarrett	1
1962	Joe Weatherly	9	Richard Petty	8	Joe Weatherly	9
1963	Richard Petty	14	Ned Jarrett	8	Joe Weatherly	3
1964	Ned Jarrett	15	Richard Petty	9	Richard Petty	9
1965	Ned Jarrett	13	Junior Johnson	13	Ned Jarrett	13
1966	David Pearson	15	Richard Petty	8	David Pearson	15
1967	Richard Petty	27	Bobby Allison	6	Richard Petty	27
1968	David Pearson	16	Richard Petty	16	David Pearson	16
1969	Bobby Isaac	17	David Pearson	11	David Pearson	11
1970	Richard Petty	18	Bobby Isaac	11	Bobby Isaac	11
1971	Richard Petty	21	Bobby Allison	11	Richard Petty	21
1972	Bobby Allison	10	Richard Petty	8	Richard Petty	8
1973	David Pearson	11	Richard Petty	6	Benny Parsons	1
1974	Richard Petty	10	Cale Yarborough	10	Richard Petty	10
1975	Richard Petty	13	Buddy Baker	4	Richard Petty	13
1976	David Pearson	10	Cale Yarborough	9	Cale Yarborough	9
1977	Cale Yarborough	9	Darrell Waltrip	6	Cale Yarborough	9
1978	Cale Yarborough	10	Darrell Waltrip	6	Cale Yarborough	10
1979	Darrell Waltrip	7	Richard Petty	5	Richard Petty	5
1980	Cale Yarborough	6	Dale Earnhardt	5	Dale Earnhardt	5
1981	Darrell Waltrip	12	Bobby Allison	5	Darrell Waltrip	12
1982	Darrell Waltrip	12	Bobby Allison	8	Darrell Waltrip	12
1983	Bobby Allison	6	Darrell Waltrip	6	Bobby Allison	6
1984	Darrell Waltrip	7	Harry Gant	3	Terry Labonte	2
1985	Bill Elliott	11	Dale Earnhardt	4	Darrell Waltrip	3
1986	Tim Richmond	7	Dale Earnhardt	5	Dale Earnhardt	5
1987	Dale Earnhardt	11	Bill Elliott	6	Dale Earnhardt	11
1988	Bill Elliott	6	Rusty Wallace	6	Bill Elliott	6
1989	Rusty Wallace	6	Darrell Waltrip	6	Rusty Wallace	6
1990	Dale Earnhardt	9	Mark Martin	3	Dale Earnhardt	9
1991	Davey Allison	5	Harry Gant	5	Dale Earnhardt	4
1992	Bill Elliott	5	Davey Allison	5	Alan Kulwicki	2
1993	Rusty Wallace	10	Dale Earnhardt	6	Dale Earnhardt	6
1994	Rusty Wallace	8	Dale Earnhardt	4	Dale Earnhardt	4
1995	Jeff Gordon	7	Dale Earnhardt	5	Jeff Gordon	7
1996	Jeff Gordon	10	Rusty Wallace	5	Terry Labonte	2
1997	Jeff Gordon	10	Dale Jarrett	7	Jeff Gordon	10
1998	Jeff Gordon	13	Mark Martin	7	Jeff Gordon	13
1999	Jeff Gordon	7	Jeff Burton	6	Dale Jarrett	4
2000	Tony Stewart	6	Bobby Labonte	4	Bobby Labonte	4
2001	Jeff Gordon	6	Dale Jarrett	4	Jeff Gordon	6
2002	Matt Kenseth	5	Kurt Busch	4	Tony Stewart	3
2003	Ryan Newman	8	Kurt Busch	4	Matt Kenseth	1
2004	Jimmie Johnson	8	Dale Earnhardt Jr	6	Kurt Busch	3
2005	Greg Biffle	6	Tony Stewart	5	Tony Stewart	5
2006	Kasey Kahne	6	Jimmie Johnson	5	Jimmie Johnson	5
2007	Jimmie Johnson	10	Jeff Gordon	6	Jimmie Johnson	10
2008	Carl Edwards	9	Kyle Busch	8	Jimmie Johnson	7
2009	Jimmie Johnson	7	Mark Martin	5	Jimmie Johnson	7
2010	Denny Hamlin	8	Jimmie Johnson	6	Jimmie Johnson	6
2011	Tony Stewart	5	Kevin Harvick	4	Tony Stewart	5
2012	Brad Keselowski	5	Jimmie Johnson	5	Brad Keselowski	5
2013	Matt Kenseth	7	Jimmie Johnson	6	Jimmie Johnson	6

March 4, 2014

The Final Word – Harvick wins at Phoenix, Junior remains hot, but as for Danica…

Daytona was great. Phoenix was not bad, once you got used to the differences. One week we had a 2.5-mile superspeedway, the next we got was a single mile circuit. It rained in Florida, yet despite the forecast the only rain came to prematurely end the Nationwide race on Saturday. They ran in big packs in the southeast, not so much in the southwest. Rather than the huge grandstands, the feature of the PIR was Lonely Mountain and its band of hobbits just beyond the track. There was one similarity of note, however.

Dale Earnhardt Jr did run out front all day, just like at Daytona. He was almost the most dominant car on the day. Almost. The only difference was that Kevin Harvick remained ahead of him. All day. In the end, he had the horses to record his first victory as part of the Stewart-Haas team and an all but certain berth in the Chase, barring injury or alien abduction. Happy’s fender stated that it was Freaky Fast, and that was no lie.

If this was a wedding party, we had the happy couple at the alter, and the best men just behind them. Team mates Brad Keselowski and Joey Logano started on the front row and never seemed to fade beyond the top four. You need ushers, and Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Gordon were visible for the first half of the race, disappearing for much of the second half before returning at the end to round out the top half dozen. No one else really mattered from start to finish on Sunday in what was a great day for Hendrick, Penske, and Stewart-Haas.

The Hendrick weak sister was not all that delicate, with Kasey Kahne 11th. Not everyone at SHR was as stout. Tony Stewart was 16th, Danica Patrick 36th, and Kurt Busch 39th. Busch ran out the string with an ailing auto until it finally blew up with 20 laps left.

As for Patrick, she has still yet to show she can race, as the new qualifying rules left her starting closer to the rear. While a Top 20 might be a victory for her, she never got a chance to even get that far. Already a lap down, in 25th, she tangled with Justin Allgaier, which left her rear left quarter-panel buckled in. While the broadcast crew saw the tire rub, her crew did not, so they were probably the only folks surprised when the tire finally blew.

With wins pretty much equaling a Chase challenge, the only folks of note in trouble early are Patrick and Martin Truex Jr, both outside the top thirty in the standings. Truex was 22nd last Sunday after finishing dead last at Daytona, with Patrick still unable to crack the top 35 on race day. Still, it is early and you would think any fully funded driver surely would have to be able to crack the Top 30. Right?

So, off we go via FOX to Las Vegas this Sunday for a 400 miler on a 1.5-mile layout. Johnson has four wins there, while Gordon was best once back during his last championship season. Matt Kenseth has three, including the one last year. Carl Edwards has a pair, with Tony Stewart and Kyle Busch each with one.

Talking about Busch, does anyone give a damn that he won his all-time series best 64th Nationwide race in Phoenix on Saturday? NASCAR sees what we see, they are concerned that the big leaguers stomp all over the up and comers, but are not sure exactly what to do about it just yet. The tracks want the stars to bring out the fans, the team owners want them as they bring in sponsorship dollars, but they are for sure killing this series.

Regan Smith won at Daytona, but series regulars have just three of ten Top Five finishes, and 11 of a possible twenty Top Tens. What I wonder about is why bother wasting my time gushing over Kyle kicking minor league ass, when the most relevant finishers at Phoenix were Elliott Sadler (6th), Trevor Bayne (7th), and Smith (8th)? You know, the top three in the Nationwide standings, the boys who are truly relevant. I think the problem is not that the Cup drivers are allowed to race, but that the media focuses in on those who do not matter at the expense of those who do.

Winning is good, but at least one needs to strive to be relevant. Win a Cup race, stay in the Top 30, and one becomes relevant. Go winless, and one better be in the Top 16 in points to stay relevant. With a career average finish of 27.0, I think I can already identify one who is not. I believe Richard Petty might even agree with me.

Here are the sweet 16 as we head to Las Vegas.

Pos.	Drivers	Wins	Points
1	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.	1	90
2	Kevin Harvick	1	79
3	Brad Keselowski	0	84
4	Jeff Gordon	0	80
5	Jimmie Johnson	0	78
6	Joey Logano	0	75
7	Matt Kenseth	0	70
8	Denny Hamlin	0	68
9	Carl Edwards	0	65
10	Jamie McMurray	0	64
11	Greg Biffle	0	64
12	Casey Mears	0	64
13	Ricky Stenhouse, Jr.	0	63
14	Kyle Busch	0	61
15	Ryan Newman	0	60
16	Austin Dillon	0	56

March 3, 2014

Hot 20 – If wins alone decided a champion, you might not be happy with the result

Which driver has the highest level of success? Well, if the point of racing is to finish first, then the answer comes easy. Last Sunday, Dale Earnhardt Jr was the most successful driver in the Daytona 500. There is no argument.

So, who is the best over the course of an entire season and how should that be measured? NASCAR figures a 16-driver, 10 race, four round elimination system is the way to go. I propose giving 69-70 points per win (up from 47-48) and eliminating the Chase could be another. However, what if NASCAR had decided to award their championship to the driver with the most wins during the season, those with the most successful races, using points as a tie-breaker?

At present, Richard Petty and Dale Earnhardt lead the way with seven titles, with Jimmie Johnson at six, and Jeff Gordon with four. Five more drivers have each claimed three crowns, all either present or future Hall of Famers in Lee Petty, David Pearson, Cale Yarborough, Darrell Waltrip, and Tony Stewart. However, if wins trumped points per season, the landscape would change, and I dare say a lot of NASCAR fans would not like it.

Leading the way as the sport’s greatest driver would be Jeff Gordon. Six times between 1995 and 2001, including five straight, he was the season’s most successful driver. Richard Petty did it five times, with David Pearson and Darrell Waltrip one behind. Our three time “winners” would have included Cale Yarborough, Bill Elliott, Rusty Wallace, and Jimmie Johnson. As for Dale Earnhardt, he had the most wins in a season just twice, in 1987 and 1990. I told you some might not like that statistic.

Why rewrite history, why reinvent the wheel? So, to determine the most successful driver all I did was eliminate the Chase and give added weight to victories. As we go through the season, I’ll leave it to you to determine if this succeeds in doing so.

Our hottest 20 drivers coming out of Daytona are…

	Driver	Win	Points	Diff
1	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.	1	70
2	Denny Hamlin	0	43	-27
3	Brad Keselowski	0	42	-28
4	Jeff Gordon	0	40	-30
5	Jimmie Johnson	0	40	-30
6	Matt Kenseth	0	38	-32
7	Greg Biffle	0	37	-33
8	Ricky Stenhouse, Jr.	0	37	-33
9	Austin Dillon	0	36	-34
10	Joey Logano	0	34	-36
11	Casey Mears	0	34	-36
12	Kevin Harvick	0	31	-39
13	Jamie McMurray	0	30	-40
14	Bobby Labonte	0	29	-41
15	Reed Sorenson	0	28	-42
16	Carl Edwards	0	28	-42
17	Marcos Ambrose	0	26	-44
18	Kyle Busch	0	26	-44
19	Kurt Busch	0	24	-46
20	Terry Labonte	0	24	-46

February 26, 2014

The Final Word – Earnhardt wins at Daytona and all is right with the world

Jeff Gordon is correct. Now that Dale Earnhardt Jr has claimed his second Daytona 500, all is right with the world. Now, what on earth has made a 20 race winner, one who has won exactly three races in the past 279 events, all that popular?

A movie script career has as much to do with it as any. The son of a legend who won his first two races in 2000 with the team owner, his dad, joining him in celebration. Then came 2001, his father’s death on the sport’s biggest stage, Junior’s victory in Daytona that summer, his six wins in 2004 including the Daytona 500 to match the Intimidator in just his fifth attempt. Then came the drama and the disappointment of the next decade. His fans, and the driver himself, needing one more flash of sunshine, and ironically it came on a day when the race would go through a six hour rain delay. It came in a race that began with a slant No. 3 leading the way on the pole, its first appearance since that tragic day in 2001. It came as a black sheet of tape left Ryan Newman’s car to find a place on the front grill of Earnhardt’s auto, making it possibly even faster over the final few laps. It came, finally. We long needed a happy ending to the script, and on Sunday we got it.

Earnhardt’s total joy at victory swept along his fans, and maybe a few not part of Junior Nation. Hoots, hugs, and fist pumps for all. Of course, it is just one race, but if you are going to win just one, this is the one to win. For a week, at least, all is right with the world.

Steve Letarte will begin his new career with NBC next season as a Daytona 500 winning crew chief. That has a nice ring to it. The 34-year old leaves an employer he has been with since he was 15 to take a job that will have fewer demands and allows him more time with his wife and two children. In short, he gets to have a life. Now, being known as a season championship crew chief has an even nicer ring to it. To borrow from Robert Frost…

To the broadcast booth he’ll soon leap
But he still has promises yet to keep,
And miles to go before he’ll sleep,
And miles to go before he’ll sleep.

Rick Hendrick had a very good day, as both Six-time and Four-time also managed Top Five finishes. Denny Hamlin won the Sprint Unlimited, won his duel race, but was first loser when it counted, finishing just behind Junior. Brad Keselowski rounded out the Top Five.

Even the pole sitter had a Top Ten, but the No. 3 had a rather interesting day. It is better to give than receive, and Austin Dillon did his best to do unto others. After leading the first lap, he drifted back. With 55 laps to go, the 23-year old got caught up in the same mess that took out Danica Patrick (40th) and Michael Waltrip (41st). With 38 to go, Dillon spun fellow rookie Kyle Larson into a ten car wreck to end the Target car’s day. With seven left, Dillon got team mate Ryan Newman out of shape and seven more cars needed work. Friends? Who needs ‘em? The last guy who drove that number did not seem to have many of his own in the early going.

If Hamlin was first loser, outside pole sitter Martin Truex Jr was last loser, as his engine blew up 30 laps in. He was gone before the 6 hour rain delay. He could have been home before they got restarted. Clint Bowyer stayed at the track, only to blow up 90 laps after they returned, to wind up 42nd. Sometimes good things do not happen to those who wait.

Larson was already in the midst of an adventure before Dillon mercifully ended his race. He had a right front go down as his car bounced off the wall twice within the opening three laps. Not the start the rookie wanted. Then his right rear went soft. Later, Dillon arrived and Larson finished 38th.

Fuel pump issues left Tony Stewart 35th and hoping his 17th Daytona 500 might be the charm. While such contenders as Matt Kenseth and Greg Biffle had Top Tens, Joey Logano (11th), Kevin Harvick (13th), Carl Edwards (17th), Kurt Busch (21st), and Ryan Newman (22nd) are hoping for better things in Phoenix. Kyle Busch won the Friday truck race, was fourth in Saturday’s Nationwide event, but 19th was his fate on Sunday. Then again, a win in Arizona this weekend and all will be forgotten.

Seven years ago my sister and I, and other family members, were in the stands to see Harvick win. On Sunday, she watched the race from the couch with her daughters at her side. They were bored. I mean, even at three and one, the girls know a repeat when they see one. After about ten minutes, so did their mother. Others were not as quick, as FOX covered up their six hour broadcast hole with a replay of the 2013 event. It would appear thousands did not notice the difference, or the fact some drivers were in cars they were not supposed to be in. For the record, the outcome did not change. Jimmie Johnson still won.

A new season has dawned, a familiar face has returned to a familiar place, and all is right with the world. While the fair weather, fickle, big event fans may have wandered off until Talladega, the rest of us have a Sunday date coming up courtesy of Phoenix International Raceway. Qualifying goes Friday night, and that should be something different.

February 25, 2014

Hot 20 – As in 2003, the season’s dominant driver might not be our 2014 champion

My grandfather might have fought on the front lines in World War I from the time he was 18 until he turned 22, but he did not invent NASCAR. My father might have turned limited educational opportunities in World War II Saskatchewan into a career in public works, but he never ran NASCAR. My cousin Michelle might currently be vacationing in France, but we still are no relations to a certain family. Thus, I have no championship to bestow to any driver. What I do have is an idea to allow us to determine just who is the best driver of 2014, even if they fail to win the “championship” in Miami.

One need not try to re-invent the wheel. In fact, NASCAR almost came up with the best solution all on their lonesome. The current points system is right on the money, but still fails to fully reward victories. After all, winning is everything and second is just the first loser. So, I would make only two changes. First, increase the victor’s spoils from 47 to 48 points up to 69 or 70 points. That would give the winner a gap of between 22 and 25 points up on the runner up. Second, I would toss the Chase.

The champion over the past three seasons would still be the champion, while back in 2003 eight race winner Ryan Newman would have taken the crown from single race winner Matt Kenseth. Still, Kenseth would have had a shot of taking it heading into Homestead, and isn’t that all what we should really ask for? Okay, other than to have a champion declared we all might agree is actually the true king of the season.

2003 DRIVERS	WINS	POINTS
Ryan Newman	8	1310
Jimmie Johnson	3	1271
Matt Kenseth	1	1258
Jeff Gordon	3	1222
Dale Earnhardt, Jr.	2	1204
Kevin Harvick	1	1187
Tony Stewart	2	1132
Bobby Labonte	2	1072
Kurt Busch	4	1052
Bill Elliott	1	1046

Still, after more than 30 years with the same system, Kenseth was indeed the legitimate king that season. Even with the ten race Chase, and a field cluttered with non-contenders, enough events were run that we could grudgingly accept that the leader after Homestead should have his name engraved on the trophy. A single race with four survivors surrounded by 39 also-rans, the best among the four getting the prize, might be a bridge too far.

So, for those of us who want to keep our eye on who was the most dominant over the course of the season, we abandon the Chase and reward each race winner with 22 additional points. I submit that this might be a more legitimate, less contrived way, of deciding who, if not the champion, was the best over the course of the season. That season begins on Sunday.

2013 DRIVERS	WINS	POINTS	Act. Pos.
Jimmie Johnson	6	1380	1
Matt Kenseth	7	1357	2
Kevin Harvick	4	1295	3
Kyle Busch	4	1251	4
Carl Edwards	2	1162	13
Dale Earnhardt, Jr.	0	1144	5
Clint Bowyer	0	1115	7
Jeff Gordon	1	1109	6
Greg Biffle	1	1099	9
Joey Logano	1	1093	8
Brad Keselowski	0	1092	14
Kurt Busch	0	1071	10
Kasey Kahne	2	1066	12
Ryan Newman	1	1049	11
Jamie McMurray	1	1030	15
Martin Truex, Jr.	1	1020	16
Paul Menard	0	949	17
Aric Almirola	0	913	18
Ricky Stenhouse, Jr.	0	909	19
Jeff Burton	0	906	20

February 20, 2014

The Final Word – They are baaack

The long season, well it might have been just three months, of our winter discontent has come to a close. The engines are running, our hopes and dreams have been renewed, and NASCAR keeps trying its damndest to drive us to watching something else. Still, they have yet to turn it into basketball or soccer, so I continue to tune in.

Good to see the slant 3 back on the pole at Daytona. Some are not fond of Austin Dillon taking the sedan out for a ride, but even though I know where such folks are coming from, they are dead wrong. Dale Earnhardt did not want the number retired and his son did not want to carry the number. Earnhardt made it iconic, his best friend paid for its upkeep every year since his loss, and finally after 13 years Richard Childress turns it over to his grandson and keeps it in the family. As for Dillon himself, at 23 he already has a truck and junior circuit championship under his belt. NASCAR does not retire numbers, and I believe the time is right, with the right guy behind the wheel.

Dillon will start next Sunday on point, with new Furniture Row driver Martin Truex Jr right beside him. Under the hood was another Earnhardt-Childress engine. Funny, just seven minutes down I-95 from the Speedway is Furniture Row’s Daytona store. You would almost think they put the place there on purpose.

On Thursday, the rest of the boys and girl make their run for the other 41 spots in the Daytona 500. Last year’s pole sitter, Danica Patrick, was 25th in Sunday’s qualifying. She does not have a secure spot as of yet, though a dozen do.

The two front row cars are locked in, along with the next four best qualifiers. That would include Greg Biffle, Carl Edwards, Ryan Newman, and Brad Keselowski. The best six from 2013 also get a free pass. So, Jimmie Johnson, Matt Kenseth, Kevin Harvick, Kyle Busch, Dale Earnhardt Jr, and Jeff Gordon are in. Finally, the latest former champion not in yet is included, and that would be Tony Stewart.

The first to qualify are the pole sitters, followed by those who finish among the Top 15 in each race on Thursday, then the top four best qualifiers not yet in, followed by the six best from 2013 still on the outside, seven if there is not still a former champion needing a freebie. Six will go home early. Danica Patrick is not a sure thing, but the odds are in her favor.

Looking at qualifying and owner’s points from last season, I would expect Dave Blaney, Alex Bowman, Joe Nemechek, Michael McDowell, Josh Wise, and Morgan Shepherd to be those slated to get the bad news. Something tells me I might be wrong about somebody from that group.

As we go in, I still wonder if NASCAR is about to strip its champion of any relevance in its quest to keep folks watching right to the bitter end. I wonder if those fans upset by the return of the No. 3 will be even more upset after Homestead. I wonder how long SPEED will continue running its race positions by blocking out the right side of the screen instead of its usual crawl, out of the way, across the top. Lord help us if FOX decides to follow their lead or we will wind up just watching 2/3 of the action that remains visible on the left hand of the screen. I wonder if one of the rookies not named Austin or Kyle will be able to make an impact while driving for teams not considered top tier, at least for the moment.

Saturday night introduced us to what NASCAR’s championship game..er..race might eventually look like. Reduce the field to just the contenders, then let ‘er rip. They did manage to rip half of the field out of the event before they were done, with Denny Hamlin emerging as the night’s survivor. It was a nice selection of hors d’oeuvres to go with Thursday’s appetizers, to be followed by Sunday’s main course.

You always hurt the one you love, or so Ricky Stenhouse Jr demonstrated. Nice way to treat your valentine, buddy.

I hear that Richard Petty has received some backlash regarding his recent comments where he stated that Danica would win a race provided everyone else stayed home. Why? Does anyone actually disagree with his comments?

There are those who continue to criticize the Waltrips’ work in the broadcast booth. It is as if they have never even heard of Rusty Wallace or Brad Daugherty.

That was a nice looking pace car leading the way at the Sprint Unlimited last Saturday. Does fire come as part of the basic package or is it optional?

On Sunday, it does not matter how a champion will be declared in the fall. It does not matter if they have 10, 12, 13, 16 or 43 drivers making the Chase. All that matters is that we celebrate the 56th running of the Daytona 500. Enjoy your week, as I certainly will.

February 17, 2014
The Final Word – Did Matt Kenseth’s 2003 title run ruin NASCAR?

Matt Kenseth ruined NASCAR. He did not mean to do it, and we did not know at the time that he did, but it would seem his single win 2003 championship changed everything. Maybe if his personality was more like a Busch, a Harvick, or a Stewart, who would answer such criticism with a simple “kiss my ass” it might have been different. It was also the season Ryan Newman won eight races, but was a distant sixth in the standings.

Of course, the Chase was supposed to be the remedy. That was before we discovered that NASCAR had no interest in determining who was the best over the course of the season, but rather sought a gimmick to keep people watching to the end. A final four with winner take all, with wins being the determining factor, is now supposed to be the answer. This ignores the fact that a driver can still go winless, make the final four, and finish third at Homestead and win it all. So, the season crown could wind up being meaningless, no matter what legend might come out and parrot the company line.

Maybe a three race playoff, featuring the three track configurations (short, long, and road) and only those 16 drivers (or whatever cut off line they determine) taking part might be a more legitimate solution. Then again, one driver could win the first two and then we are back to a meaningless season finale.

Still, 2003’s result started the changes. What if we had a system at that time which rewarded wins, Top Fives, and Top Tens more? Might that have changed things? The new points system was a good start, so rather than reinvent the wheel let us start with that. I thought giving up 70 or 75 points for a win, extra for Top Fives and Top Tens might do the trick. I mean, close to 40 points between first and 11th should have altered the landscape somewhat, at least enough to close the gap back in 2003.

Actually, it would not. Kenseth, who lost an engine and was dead last at Homestead that year, would have finished well ahead of Jimmie Johnson and Newman. Kenseth was just too consistent, consistently high that is, to be caught as this system would have rewarded the eventual champion for his 25 Top Tens that year. So, what if we only gave the steroid treatment for wins, and leave everything else the same?

Just how many points should a win be worth? 65…70…75…more? In doing so, might we also be able to see at least one contender within 30 or so points from the leader going into the final race of the season? Hey, if it ticks all the boxes, including the “game seven” moment desired by Mr. France, so much the better, but with no gimmicks and no Chase.

Here are what the standings would have looked like going into Homestead for the season finale based on those numbers for 2003, 2011, 2012, and 2013. Do any of them tickle your own fancy? Do any of them identify a champion you would recognize as the very best on that particular season?

2003 Wins 65 pts 70 pts 75 pts

Newman 8 1263 1303 1343

Kenseth 1 1252 1257 1262

Johnson 3 1214 1229 1244

Awarding the winner a maximum 65 points, 2003 would have seen Ryan Newman entering Homestead with an 11 point lead over Matt Kenseth. Increase the winner’s total to 70, and Newman’s eight win season would have jumped him 46 points ahead. At 75, he would have had it already won, going in 81 points on top.

2011 Wins 65 pts 70 pts 75 pts

Edwards 1 1251 1256 1261

Harvick 4 1231 1251 1271

Stewart 4 1212 1232 1252

In 2011, Tony Stewart beat Carl Edwards in the Chase by win totals (5-to-1). Had they awarded up to 65 points for a win, Edwards would have entered Homestead 20 points up on Kevin Harvick, with Stewart 39 behind. At 70, the gap narrows to just 5 points, with Smoke 24 in arrears, while at 75, Harvick is up by ten and Stewart within 19 of the leader. Stewart’s Homestead win could have given him the title over Edwards by 1, 6, or 11 points.

2012 Wins 65 pts 70 pts 75 pts

Keselowski 5 1315 1340 1365

Johnson 5 1307 1332 1357

2012 was claimed by Brad Keselowski via the Chase, but as both he and Johnson were tied in wins, Keselowski would have entered Homestead up by eight points regardless.

2013 Wins 65 pts 70 pts 75 pts

Johnson 6 1315 1345 1375

Kenseth 7 1267 1302 1337

That brings us to last season when Johnson went into Homestead with the advantage but with Kenseth having one more win to his credit. Award up to 65 points per win, and Johnson leads by 48 points. By 70, and the lead is cut to 43. Award the victor up to 75 points, and we have a 38 point gap.

If wins mean almost everything, then as long as the challenger has a hope for the title with a win at Homestead, we should be satisfied. By awarding the winner 69 or 70 points for victory, the gap between first and second would be between 25 and 28 points, depending on race bonuses. In 2003, Kenseth would still have claimed the crown with a victory as long as Newman finished no better than 22nd. In 2011, Stewart would have won the title with a win, no matter what Edwards did that day. The same goes for Johnson in 2012 against Keselowski. Last season, a Kenseth win and a Johnson finish of no better than 18th would have given Matt his second championship.

No gimmicks. No Chase. Sometimes game seven moments are not to be. Win 27 races, like Richard Petty did in 1967, and you just hand the sceptre to the King. No other result would have been acceptable.

What do you think?

February 11, 2014
The Final Word – Be the changes bad or a fad, NASCAR’s return is sure to make you glad, sad, or just plain mad

Imagine the Super Bowl as Percy Harvin takes the second half kickoff. However, before he gets very far, he is blindsided by someone from … the 2 and 14 Houston Texans? The ball squirts loose, the Broncos pick it up and go in for a touchdown. Momentum shifts, Peyton Manning can find receivers, and Denver comes back to beat the Seahawks. If you think that is bizarre, welcome to NASCAR, 2014 style.

Now imagine Dale Earnhardt Jr finally challenging for the title. He is charging to the front at Homestead, when Dave Blaney, who never had a hope to winning it all, loses control and punts Junior into oblivion. Could happen. Forget consistency, wins will take the crown in the new Chase, they say. Then they say that under these rules, Junior could have won it all last season…a season in which he was winless. NASCAR logic.

Will it cause excitement at the end of the season? Well, you might be able to call it that. It would at least give us some reason to watch that abysmal crew from ESPN one final campaign. Will the new champion be the best of the best over the course of the season? Probably not. The only question we need answered is if the fans will accept who NASCAR deems as its champion under this rather contrived system or if an obviously superior candidate emerges.

Will Jimmie Johnson win his seventh title? Will fans give him credit for it if he does? Will a Hendrick driver win it all, again? Tony Stewart will be back, but its his leg we will wonder about. That, and how Kevin Harvick and Kurt Busch play as team mates. Maybe Danica Patrick will be a factor this year, and then again, maybe my butt might sprout wings.

Richard Childress brings back the slant No. 3 for his grandson Austin Dillon while welcoming Ryan Newman to the fold. Martin Truex Jr. is the new man for Furniture Row, and Brian Vickers joins Michael Waltrip’s team. Along with Dillon, we have highly regarded rookie Kyle Larson with Ganassi Racing. There is some young talent coming up with less than seasoned teams, but it is too early to tell if they are for real, or if they will simply be joining the ranks of starts and parks.

Win a race, wind up in the Chase, or at least if you manage to finish among the Top 30. Win a Chase race, and you avoid elimination when they strip four from contention after each set of three events as they move through the Challenger, Contender, and Elimination rounds. Finish best among the final four contenders at Homestead, and you win a championship. Nope, it is not you daddy’s NASCAR, anymore.

While we will have to wait until Phoenix to see the change in Cup qualifying, the junior and truck circuits will start demonstrating this at Daytona. No more single car one or two lap turns, as now everybody hits the circuit at the same time. For the bigger circuits, the fastest 24 after 25 minutes continue for another 10 minutes. The top dozen then go for another five to determine the first six rows for when they take the green flag. For tracks under a mile-and-a-quarter, they all run for 30 minutes, with the top dozen advancing to a second and final round to determine the top spots. Rather than determine who has the fastest car, it should decide who is the fastest racer. That is an innovation that actually makes some sense.

At least something does. The changes coming up in deciding a champion, according to pundits citing nameless experts, has everyone very excited. Yes, about as excited as grandma got when you hurled on her nice shag rug. Let us just say we are interested in how it all turns out. We begin with the Sprint Unlimited for pole winners and former Bud Shootout winners on February 15th. Unless you are a hockey or basketball fan, enjoy the quiet, or at least until the Winter Olympics get under way at the end of the week.

February 4, 2014

Hot 20 – NASCAR’s paper champions vs the real deal

I guess it was written in stone, after all. NASCAR has gone ahead and, starting this season, will award the season crown to the best finisher amongst just four drivers at the year’s finale in Homestead. I doubt more than a handful would consider such a champion as legitimate, at least among true fans. As for the rest of us, we can either find some other sport to watch, or decide amongst ourselves who really was the best on the season.

In 1967, Richard Petty won 27 races and the title. No surprise there, but if this new way of doing things had been in place, Petty would not have won the title. Last year, Jimmie Johnson averaged a 5.1 finish over the course of the Chase, but he would not have won the title, either. In fact, had Dale Earnhardt Jr finished second, ahead of Matt Kenseth at Homestead, he would have won the crown under this format. He would have done so without winning a single race all season. Now, that would have been ironic.

I understand what NASCAR boss Brian France is attempting, but those “game seven” moments just happen. They are not contrived. The Yankees did not fold by design in 2004 to allow the Red Sox to storm back to enter sports history. Even the Super Bowl does not always provide a game seven moment. While the 2013 game was tight, who can forget the 49’ers 55-10 drubbing of the Broncos back in 1990? Even Denver fans can’t get that one out of their heads.

Once again, we turn to the Fiddler on the Roof and its lesson on tradition. You win titles by consistency, so you need a system that forces championship contenders to run well in order to keep their hopes bright. You need wins, the most cherished statistic, Top Fives and Top Tens in order to succeed.

If Brian France can put forward his idea, let me provide one of my own. Wins are important, so let us make them worth 17 points more than they currently are. That way, a maximum of 65 points might be realized. Add 11 points to those finishing second through fifth, or a minimum of 50 points for a Top Five. Finish outside the Top Ten, you are an also ran, so let us give those who finish 6th through 10th an additional 6 points, or worth between 40 and 44 points, not including bonus points for leading. Finish 11th, you still receive 33 points, and on down to one for finishing dead last. Maybe, just maybe, we can also dispense with the Chase while we are at it.

What about the game seven finale? Well, you do not always get that, so just maybe NASCAR should promote, feature, honor, and salute its best of the best. Coronations can be fun, too, if one has a clue about promotion. Maybe recognize those who came close, podium style, like the other racing series. Finishing second or third over the season, indeed at any individual race, is a fine accomplishment. Does NASCAR honor those drivers? Hell, no. Still, it is bewildering that Jimmie Johnson is not marketed as a living legend, or Jeff Gordon or Tony Stewart, for that matter. Instead of cherishing their best, they seem almost embarrassed by them. It is like the MLB trying to play down the Yankees while hoping to some how get the Miami Marlins or the Houston Astros a shot at the World Series.

Will fans buy into this nonsense? Some probably will, tossing tradition into the scrap heap. Some never will. No one will beat Petty and Earnhardt’s string of titles in their minds. Why? Because no other champion will be legitimate, unless they also happen to have been the best over the course of the entire season…Chase be damned.

Using my proposed system, here is a look at the Hot 20 drivers over the 2013 season, those who proved themselves to be among the best, no gimmicks needed.

Points awarded as they presently are, with the exception of Wins worth 63 points (for a maximum of 65), Top Fives are worth from 50 – 53 points, and Top Tens are worth from 40- 44 points.

Pos	Driver	Points	W	T5	T10
1	Jimmie Johnson	1505	6	16	24
2	Matt Kenseth	1424	7	12	20
3	Kevin Harvick	1402	4	9	21
4	Kyle Busch	1399	4	16	22
5	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.	1326	0	10	22
6	Clint Bowyer	1279	0	10	19
7	Carl Edwards	1271	2	9	16
8	Joey Logano	1246	1	11	19
9	Jeff Gordon	1235	1	8	17
10	Kurt Busch	1222	0	11	16
11	Brad Keselowski	1212	0	9	16
12	Greg Biffle	1181	1	4	13
13	Kasey Kahne	1173	2	11	14
14	Ryan Newman	1171	1	6	18
15	Martin Truex, Jr.	1129	1	7	15
16	Jamie McMurray	1088	1	4	9
17	Paul Menard	1018	0	3	9
18	Juan Pablo Montoya	962	0	4	8
19	Aric Almirola	954	0	1	6
20	Jeff Burton	952	0	2	6

January 30, 2014

2003	Wins	65 pts	70 pts	75 pts
Newman	8	1263	1303	1343
Kenseth	1	1252	1257	1262
Johnson	3	1214	1229	1244

2011	Wins	65 pts	70 pts	75 pts
Edwards	1	1251	1256	1261
Harvick	4	1231	1251	1271
Stewart	4	1212	1232	1252

2012	Wins	65 pts	70 pts	75 pts
Keselowski	5	1315	1340	1365
Johnson	5	1307	1332	1357

2013	Wins	65 pts	70 pts	75 pts
Johnson	6	1315	1345	1375
Kenseth	7	1267	1302	1337