Author: Ron Thornton

The Final Word – The only 25 drivers’ names you need to concern yourself with this Cup season

When the 2014 Cup season begins, we will have new faces, old faces in new places, along with a cast of characters still where we last saw them. However, when they are done determining who is in and who is out each week, only 25 drivers on ten teams will actually matter. The rest will simply be hamburger helper sprinkled amongst the real meat.

The steak that will sizzle is once again expected to be provided by Team Hendrick, led by 6-time champion Jimmie Johnson. Four-time king Jeff Gordon, fan favorite Dale Earnhardt Jr, and 16-race winner Kasey Kahne will all be behind the wheel of Chevrolet SS models, but this quartet is all Corvette. 189 career wins and 10 championships between them. Enough said.

After a 13 year absence, Dale Earnhardt’s old slant No.3 returns with his old boss, with the team owner’s grandson in the driver’s seat. All 23-year old Austin Dillon has done to deserve the opportunity was to show Grandpa that he can win championships, as he did last year in the junior series and the year before in the trucks. Okay, he looks rather goofy in a cowboy hat, I admit, but when he pops on a racing helmet the lad is solid gold. Add to the mix Ryan Newman and Paul Menard and this should prove an interesting season for this outfit.

Joe Gibbs has his own trio of note, as Matt Kenseth, Kyle Busch, and Denny Hamlin all have shown star quality on the track. Kenseth was the chief contender to Johnson last year, Kyle is always in the mix, and Hamlin was the last guy we saw in Victory Lane last year, despite what was for him a season of misfortune.

Jack Roush drivers claimed three wins in 2013, even though 9th was the best season showing from a lineup that boasts Greg Biffle, Carl Edwards, and Ricky Stenhouse Jr. None have won a Cup crown, all are hungry to change that, and the pressure will be on to be succeed this season.

2014 brings us Kyle Larson, as the 21-year old joins Jamie McMurray with Chip Ganassi. He won one of two truck races he ran last year, but still is best known for being sent up into the fence and spreading car parts into the stands during Daytona’s junior series opener last year.

Roger Penske has a two car operation, with former champ Brad Keselowski and Joey Logano driving again for him. Richard Petty is back with Marcos Ambrose and Aric Almirola. Michael Waltrip had himself an annus horribilis, as Queen Elizabeth might say, in 2013. Still, while NAPA may be gone, Clint Bowyer and Brian Vickers remain. No sponsor, no Martin Truex Jr, but he wound up with Furniture Row, and along with the rest mentioned here should be more than relevant when they roll off the line.

No, I have not forgotten about Tony Stewart, nor Gene Haas who made himself relevant by hiring his own boy, namely Kurt Busch, for the team. Along with the mending co-owner and the arrival of Kevin Harvick, this should be quite a team to watch, both on and off the track. Call this the good, the bad, and the ugly, but I will leave it to you to determine who is who.

Did I miss anyone? Well, actually, no. I am with Kyle Petty when it comes to 31-year old Danica Patrick. She is a marketing machine but she has yet to prove she can race when there are others out there to compete against. Despite the quality equipment she has, and I am talking about that provided by Stewart-Haas not God Almighty, her results have been pedestrian, at best. A single Top Ten in 46 Cup races, 7 for 60 in the junior league, one win and 7 podiums in 115 IndyCar events does not a legend make. However, until another woman arrives on the scene, and I see none even close just yet, she will remain. At least she will until the novelty runs its course and she faces the same expectations as, say, 24-year old Landon Cassill, 22-year old Cole Whitt, 22- year old Trevor Bayne or 21-year old Ty Dillon.

Ten teams, I say, but what about Tommy Baldwin? If you expect Michael Annett or J.J. Yeley to do something, then maybe. I just do not see it. Swan Racing is running two teams, but will Whitt or Parker Kligerman outlast even start and parker Joe Nemechek? There will be Front Row (with David Ragan and David Gilliland), BK and Daugherty teams attempting to qualify and even making it, but will they add to your race experience? I doubt it, but wouldn’t it be nice if someone made a liar out of me? Anyone?

There will be a lot of story lines this season, such as Johnson’s quest to reach NASCAR immortality, Junior seeking a win, the rookie seasons of Dillon and Larson, Roush veterans seeking a title, the Stewart-Haas potential drama, if Furniture Row can maintain, and so much more. However, just as important will be the answer as to whether Patrick is the real deal or a 3 dressed up as a 9 and if Baldwin, Swan, or Front Row can make the jump to actually matter. We are down to just weeks before the results start trickling in.

In the meantime, enjoy the Super Bowl.

January 27, 2014
If by chance the France proposal had come to pass…in 2013

A year or two ago, let us say that Brian France had a brainwave. He came up with a proposal to allow 16 drivers into the Chase, first determined by wins gathered up to and including Richmond. The rest would get an invite due to the points accumulated. Let him add another twist. Let him have the rank of contenders drop by four after three Chase events, another four after six, with four more gone just as they headed to Homestead. In the big finale, an artificially engineered four driver showdown for all the marbles would take place, also featuring 39 also-rans out there to keep them company.

So, after the race in Richmond in 2013, they would have set the sweet 16, to steal yet another concept from another sport. A dozen would wind up getting a pass based on having won at least once up to that moment. Welcome David Ragan to the derby for his win at Talladega. Tony Stewart would limp in, though he would be gone after the third race of the Chase for obvious reasons. Just like Clint Bowyer, not enough penalties could have kept Martin Truex Jr out, due to his win at Sonoma. The remaining four spots get in on points, which would mean no help needed by Jeff Gordon as he would join Dale Earnhardt Jr, Kurt Busch, and Bowyer..

Three races down in the Chase, and four drivers would be eliminated. Stewart is officially gone, to be joined by Ragan, who in three races earned only 53 points more than the idle Smoke. A lousy day at Loudon finished Kasey Kahne’s hopes, while Joey Logano started the Chase bad and that was all that was needed. Then, to keep us all on the edge of our seats, they evened up the points to put the final dozen on an equal footing.

12 left, with four more about to go by the time they left Talladega. A bad day in Chicago was all that was needed to eliminate Ryan Newman while Truex had a tough time just finishing in the Top 20 in those initial Chase weeks. Chicago also meant the end of Kyle Busch’s hopes, as the second stage also would have spelled adios for Greg Biffle. For the eight that remain, the points are again evened out as they all start from scratch, season be damned.

While Johnson would have cruised through the next segment with a win and a pair of Top Fives, Kurt Busch was just so-so, so he had to go. Jeff Gordon and Carl Edwards both had Texas disasters, while Bowyer was good at a time he needed to be great. 12 drivers and nine races down and it was down to NASCAR’s manufactured “game seven”…even though no other sport actually attempts to engineer such a thing. There is the Super Bowl, I guess, but I can’t help but notice that only the contenders ever hit the field on game day and most often the two teams are meeting for the first time that year. Still, I digress.

So, off they would have gone to Homestead, just four still alive in the hunt for the paper title. Jimmie Johnson, Kevin Harvick, Dale Earnhardt Jr, and Matt Kenseth in a one race showdown. What a wonder for the ages it would have been, that is if the fans had bought into the nonsense. All four were on the lead lap on the final day, and while in-race observer Denny Hamlin was out in front at the end, the third place Junior was putting on a furious charge in an attempt to catch the second place Kenseth on the track. He would come up just short. Matt would no doubt have been overjoyed to win his second title, while Johnson finished ninth in the one race spectacular. Despite an average finish of 5.1 over the final ten races, it just would have not been good enough under the new France system. Would it have been a good enough finish for you?

While Matt celebrated and Johnson pondered what could have been, Dale Earnhardt rolled over in his grave. As for Richard Petty, he was just happy that the 1967 season was run under different rules. If it had not been, Bobby Allison’s sixth win that year in the Weaverville, North Carolina finale would have trumped the King’s 27 to claim the title that year. Petty finished second in the race, but even the best season in NASCAR history would have been reduced to a mere footnote. Still, imagine the excitement and joy of the fans in watching that “game seven” spectacular. Imagine the legitimacy of the championship.

Just imagine.

January 22, 2014
The Final Word – Mr. France, I’m afraid this is a terribly stupid idea

Playoffs. As exciting as they might be from time to time, they are simply a gimmick to keep interested those who are not all that interested in the first place. Still, as long as they do not go beyond the pale, to be too stupid in presenting their post-season tournament, they can create a measure of excitement.

The latest NASCAR proposal that has come to light would have 16 cars enter the Chase. Rather a large number, but actually in line with what some other sports welcome among the season’s championship contenders. Then let us whittle that group down over the ten race “playoff” until we just have four left in contention in the final race. That might work, except for the 39 other guys who have no business even being on the field of battle.

Imagine the upcoming Super Bowl between the Seattle Seahawks and the Denver Broncos. Let us play the game in San Francisco before only 49er fans, as we know just how much they love them Seahawks. Then, let us have the New England Patriots supply all the officials, on the field and beyond. While we are at it, let us have a few folks from the remaining 28 teams call a few plays, heck, let them even run a few themselves. Obviously, this would be a stupid idea, but thankfully no one in the NFL is stupid enough to institute it. NASCAR, however, might actually be thinking of implementing something just as stupid.

There is a reason they have a World Series. In 1903, they wondered who might be best, the champion of the National League or the American League. So, they played a series of games to answer the question. In 1969, Joe Namath and the New York Jets won the American Football League title, and then played the NFL champion Baltimore Colts to decide which champion was the best. Back in the spring of 1976, Guy Lafleur’s Montreal Canadiens were the best in hockey. Or were they? If they had played Bobby Hull’s Winnipeg Jets in a NHL/WHA showdown, we might have received a different answer. In each of the above cases, there was no cross-over, no common opponents. The only way to decide who was best was to have the two champions showdown for all the marbles.

There was no showdown prior to late October last year between the Red Sox and Cardinals, so the best team from each league needed a final series to determine the best. It’s the same this season in the NFL, where they can play no more than 16 of their 31 rivals during the course of the regular season. As Seattle and Denver have yet to play each other this campaign, we still need that final game to sort things out.

In NASCAR, we had the same 30 cars go head-to-head in each and every one of the 36 Cup races over the course of the season. From that number, Jimmie Johnson was the best over the season, beating Kevin Harvick by almost an entire race worth of points. Oh, but they had a 10 race Chase playoff, yet Johnson proved to be the best again, by 19 points over Matt Kenseth. Jimmie Johnson was the best over the season, the best in the playoffs, and any cockamamie system that would have deprived him of a championship would have made a mockery out of the sport.

Back in 2003, Kenseth won the title with but a single win (in the third race of the season) and that horrid occurrence spawned the Chase. Instead of giving out more points for a win, NASCAR decided it needed a playoff like all the other guys. In short, an attempt to artificially create some sort of excitement instead of being content with simply honoring the best over the course of the season. Maybe what they needed to do was rejig the points system at that time while adding more bonus points for victories, then possibly we would not even need the Chase. I mean, they had gone without it for 55 years just fine.

To be honest, we do not yet know the details of this plan, how 16 contenders would be whittled down to four over the course of ten races before determining a final champion. We do not even know for sure if this is the real deal. However, I think most of us have learned that when you hear someone proposing something stupid and you say nothing, don’t be surprised when you end up with stupid. If they want to trade legitimacy for drama in declaring a NASCAR champion, might I suggest a coin toss? It would save us all a lot of time and money.

January 20, 2014

Rating the Races – The best and the worst of 2013

It is not surprising that the race I thought was the most entertaining in 2013 was on one of the circuit’s premier venues. It was not a surprise to see the winner of that race the now six time champion. What was a surprise was that the race was broadcast on…get this…ESPN!

Best Race of the Year – As usual, Daytona in July provided us with a visual spectacle. Lap by lap there was always the promise that all hell might break loose and we were amazed when it did not. However, it did, as the likes of Kasey Kahne, Jeff Gordon, A.J. Allmendinger, Denny Hamlin, Aric Almirola, and Martin Truex Jr all ended the day on the hook. Then there was the final lap, where things did go a bit sideways after the green-white-checker took us into overtime. Carl Edwards got spun by Scott Speed in turn one, collecting four of the lesser lights, as Jimmie Johnson beat out Tony Stewart to claim his fourth of the season. Not even the horrid broadcast crew could mess this one up.

Honorable Mentions – Bristol (March), Fontana, Talladega (both), Sonoma

Worst Race of the Year – They race twice at Texas. In the spring, the big story was the NRA sponsorship. Not even FOX recognized who paid the big bucks to have their name up in lights. In November, we could have only hoped for such a distraction. Dull, dull, dull as Johnson led two-thirds of the event, Dale Earnhardt Jr finished a distant second, and fans could not wait for the season to come to an end. They turned left a lot, we had a couple of debris cautions and another to clean up some oil. Damn, that was exciting. Visually, it was almost as stimulating as watching paint dry, but not quite, and if you expected the ESPN announcers to dig into their bag of tricks to keep us entertained, you should have known better.

Dishonorable mentions – Dover (September), Charlotte (October), Martinsville (October)

Best 2 Race Track – Daytona provided some great action in July, but February’s Daytona 500 gave us a good start to the season. It was not perfection, as even the new cars could not slingshot by the leader and the inside line could not challenge them on the outside. However, the FOX crew did a great job setting the mood, reminding us of NASCAR’s past, the progression of the six generation of race cars, the driver intros, and the action was good enough to make it a fulfilling way to spend a Sunday afternoon.

Honorable Mentions – Talladega, Richmond, Bristol, Kansas

Worst 2 Race Track – My wife has a cousin who lives in Fort Worth. I have always thought one year, in either April or November, that it would be so nice to visit Andy and his family. You know, catch up, dip in his pool, and just maybe wander down the few miles to the west and check out that little racetrack and take in a little NASCAR. Maybe it might be best if we just stayed pool side.

Dishonorable mentions – Martinsville, Charlotte, Dover

Biggest Surprise of the Year – As much as having ESPN broadcast the most entertaining race of the year shocked me, the fact the action from California’s Fontana venue was top notch was another pleasant surprise. Two drivers with bad blood between them battled it out for the final three laps. When Hamlin and Joey Logano wrecked themselves, Kyle Busch shot to the front for the win, Denny went to the hospital, and Tony tried to kick Joey’s ass. The action was spread out, but there was racing and there was passing. It was the most entertaining race I have ever seen broadcast out of Fontana.

Biggest Disappointment of the Year – I have always loved Charlotte, the home of the NASCAR family and home to the World 600. Then there was Charlotte in October. It was lap after lap of whatever and who cares. I wish a win by Brad Keselowski might give me the warm and fuzzies, but it does not. Both the all-star race and the 600 endurance test were entertaining. Maybe if they had a camera fall out of the sky in the fall, like they did in May, or have engines blow up or have big name drivers take out other big name drivers it might have been different. Sadly, it was not. Maybe if it had been broadcast on FOX.

Rating the Broadcasters – In rating the races out of 10, TNT had a five race average of 8.3, FOX at 8.2 over their 13 broadcasts. ABC/ESPN was an 7.2 over their 18. I will miss TNT when they go but 2015 can not come quick enough so we can say goodbye to Allan, Dale, Rusty, and Brad. NBC is bringing in Rick Allen and Jeff Burton. See, good things really do happen for those who wait.

Being at the track does provide a very different feel than being on a couch thousands of miles away. However, from that vantage point, with these eyes, this is how I saw the 2013 Cup season unfold, thanks to the networks who broadcast all the action to our homes.

#	*Site*	*Winner*	*Miles*	*Cau*	*Rating*
1	Daytona	Jimmie Johnson	500	6	8.5
2	Phoenix	Carl Edwards	316	8	8.5
3	Las Vegas	Matt Kenseth	401	5	8
4	Bristol	Kasey Kahne	267	10	9
5	Fontana	Kyle Busch	400	9	9
6	Martinsville	Jimmie Johnson	263	12	7.5
7	Fort Worth	Kyle Busch	501	7	7
8	Kansas	Matt Kenseth	401	8	7.5
9	Richmond	Kevin Harvick	305	11	8.5
10	Talladega	David Ragan	511	5	9
11	Darlington	Matt Kenseth	501	5	8
12	Charlotte	Kevin Harvick	600	11	8
13	Dover	Tony Stewart	400	7	8.5
14	Pocono	Jimmie Johnson	400	6	8
15	Michigan	Greg Biffle	400	8	8
16	Sonoma	Martin Truex, Jr.	219	7	9
17	Kentucky	Matt Kenseth	401	10	8
18	Daytona	Jimmie Johnson	403	6	10
19	Loudon	Brian Vickers	320	12	8.5
20	Indianapolis	Ryan Newman	400	3	8
21	Pocono	Kasey Kahne	400	9	7
22	Watkins Glen	Kyle Busch	221	8	8
23	Michigan	Joey Logano	400	9	7.5
24	Bristol	Matt Kenseth	267	11	7.5
25	Atlanta	Kyle Busch	501	9	7.5
26	Richmond	Carl Edwards	300	5	8.5
27	Chicago	Matt Kenseth	401	9	6
28	Loudon	Matt Kenseth	317	7	6
29	Dover	Jimmie Johnson	400	4	5.5
30	Kansas	Kevin Harvick	401	15	9
31	Charlotte	Brad Keselowski	501	4	5.5
32	Talladega	Jamie McMurray	500	3	9
33	Martinsville	Jeff Gordon	263	17	5.5
34	Fort Worth	Jimmie Johnson	501	5	5
35	Phoenix	Kevin Harvick	312	8	6.5
36	Homestead	Denny Hamlin	401	8	7

December 11, 2013

Hot 20 over the Chase 10 – Jimmie Johnson was not perfect, but more than good enough in 2013

A mulligan is a do over, a chance to remove from consideration what one has done in the hopes of replacing it with something done better. This year in the Chase, a mulligan was no more than the name of a steam shovel operator from a book in primary school.

So, what would constitute a mulligan in Jimmie Johnson’s world? The closest he came during the Chase would have been his 13th place finish at Talladega. It was the only track he failed to record a Top Ten, one of just three he was not in the Top Five in those ten events. Matt Kenseth was 20th at Talladega and 23rd at Phoenix. Kevin Harvick was 20th at Loudon. Dale Earnhardt Jr had a 35th place result in Chicago, and 15th at Charlotte. All in all, pretty darn good, just not good enough when compared to the six time champion.

Johnson won the title by 19 points over Kenseth in the official standings and he was best over the ten Chase races by 22. Even if we went old school with a 36 race tally, Six Pack would have beat out Harvick by 41 points over the season and Kenseth by 56 to claim the crown. In short, Johnson did not allow any mulligan’s to be used, as a finish outside the Top 13 pretty much ended one’s hopes. His average finish in the Chase was a very hot 5.1.

The good news is that his standard, this hot streak, can, and has been done better. From August 12 through October 1st in 1967, Richard Petty’s average finish was 1…with a record of ten straight victories. Yes, it can be done but something tells me that this might not offer much solace to those hoping to keep J.J. from tying the King and the Intimidator in season championships in 2014.

Here is a look at our hottest 20 drivers over the ten Chase races.

	Driver	W	T5	T10	Ave	Pts
1	Jimmie Johnson	2	7	9	5.1	407
2	Matt Kenseth	2	6	7	7.4	385
3	Kevin Harvick	2	3	8	7.3	379
4	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.	0	5	8	8.5	363
5	Kyle Busch	0	5	7	9.5	352
6	Jeff Gordon	1	3	5	11.3	337
7	Clint Bowyer	0	2	6	10.9	336
8	Brad Keselowski	1	2	5	12.9	321
9	Joey Logano	0	3	5	12.6	320
10	Greg Biffle	0	1	3	12.6	318
11	Kurt Busch	0	3	3	13.3	309
12	Martin Truex, Jr.	0	1	4	13.4	307
13	Jamie McMurray	1	2	3	16	286
14	Ryan Newman	0	0	6	16	286
15	Kasey Kahne	0	3	3	16.2	283
16	Jeff Burton	0	0	1	16.5	278
17	Carl Edwards	0	1	3	16.9	276
18	Denny Hamlin	1	1	4	17.8	268
19	Ricky Stenhouse, Jr.	0	1	2	17.6	265
20	Paul Menard	0	1	2	18.9	251

December 3, 2013

The Final Word goes to Jimmie Johnson…again

He is one of the greatest drivers of all time. Jimmie Johnson’s name has long been among such icons as Tony Stewart, Darrell Waltrip, Cale Yarborough, David Pearson, and Lee Petty. By the time he was done his run of five, he had even surpassed Jeff Gordon and now only Dale Earnhardt and Richard Petty have claimed more titles. He is the best driver of his era, he has the best crew chief in Chad Knaus, drives for the best team owned by Rick Hendrick and, with the departure of NAPA, you could argue that Lowe’s is even the best sponsor in NASCAR. Is it any wonder Johnson has six Cup championships to his credit?

There are those who do not like to see one guy win so much. If I am watching greatness, if I am watching what has become an historic championship dynasty, I believe I am fortunate to be a witness to it. No one had before won five straight crowns and only two legends have won more titles over their career. Some may forget that Matt Kenseth, the race and season runner up, Kurt Busch, Bobby Labonte, Dale Jarrett, or even 2012 winner Brad Keselowski are former champs. No one with even a passing interest in the sport could ever say the same about Jimmie Johnson even years from today. Love him or not, Johnson is the Celtics, Yankees, Canadiens, and Eskimos (remember, I am Canadian) of his sport. Chad Knaus is their Red Auerbach, Joe McCarthy, Toe Blake, and Hugh Campbell. By the way, is Six Time a real athlete? If Donovan McNabb, who is ten months younger than Johnson, would like to challenge the driver to wind sprints, be my guest.

Johnson finished ninth on Sunday, while ten of the 13 Chasers finished among the Top 13 on the day. The race marked the likely final run in the Cup career of Juan Pablo Montoya (18th at Homestead) while Mark Martin (882 races) and Ken Schrader (763) seem to be done at this level. Still, something tells me that you can be sure to see them racing something somewhere yet.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr was 22nd on Sunday and named the circuit’s top rookie. His competition, and girlfriend, Danica Patrick was two spots better at Homestead. That did not happen often enough. The boy had 25 Top 20’s in 2013, the girl had 9.

Rating Homestead – 7/10 – Only late in the game was one fully secure in the probability Johnson would lay claim to the crown. Kenseth threatened to win the race to maximize his points day, and it was up to the newly named Six Time to avoid disaster. Denny Hamlin ended a horrid season with a victory, Junior mattered in this race and season, and we learned not to get too close to a burning tire. Now, if I could mute the announcers while maintaining the ambient sound, my television experience could be truly enhanced.

No change in the announce booth for 2014. Same goes for the schedule, though some off season tinkering with the car hopefully might equate into more successful passing. Change is coming on the track, as ten full-time rides will have different hands on the wheel. One ride is gone (#56) to be replaced by two new full-time entries (#41 and #95), with two changing numbers (#29 becomes either #3 or #33, and #39 becomes #4). All this, and we still have about a hundred days before they fire up at Daytona.

Enjoy the winter!

November 19, 2013
The Final Word – Down to one question: Can Johnson avoid disaster at Homestead?

The fat lady is on stage, the band is ready, the curtain has gone up. All we need now is a nod from the conductor for her to sing her song. Jimmie Johnson finished third at Phoenix. Matt Kenseth had problems, came home 23rd, and the gap between the two leaders is now 28 points. With only 48 left on the table at Homestead, Five Time needs to finish 23rd or better to amend his nickname yet again.

It is not that Phoenix did not have its drama. It did, but it came in dribbles. When Joey Logano nudged Johnson with his fender on the opening lap, some gasped. When Carl Edwards did the same later on, and Jimmie’s car danced toward the wall, they gasped some more. Then they relaxed. While Johnson could move his way to the front, Kenseth had troubles keeping up. 21 cars finished on the lead lap; Kenseth was not amongst them.

What Matt needed was the kind of day Kevin Harvick had. Even if that took place, Kenseth would still be sitting a point back. For Harvick, it marked his fourth win of the season, gave him a six point advantage for the day on Johnson, but left him a distant 34 points back in third place. While Harvick has been averaging a 7th place finish in the nine Chase events, Kenseth has produced an 8th place pace. As for Johnson, his average finish has been 4.7, aided by a 5.8 average start. Only a disaster down in Florida will stop this juggernaut from reclaiming its title.

Rating Phoenix – 6.5/10 – The reason we have announcers for televised events is to enhance the action, to inform and, if need be, to entertain. Phoenix provided such great camera views that the action was enhanced when the seven desk personnel did not say a thing. With Kenseth having his problems, the drama was somewhat diminished, but the action was there for all to see. Yes, sometimes less can indeed be more.

Jimmie Johnson has never won at Homestead in a dozen attempts. His finishes there the past two runs have been 36th last year, 32nd the year before. A repeat of 2012 would truly be a disaster for our leader and Kenseth would win the crown by finishing 7th, while Harvick would need a win. Not impossible and that is why the fat lady has not yet sung her song. However, if I were a betting man… Enjoy your week.

November 13, 2013

Hot 20 over the Chase Eight – Good just isn’t good enough when great is what it takes in the Chase

Average a Top Ten finish and you are doing good. Very good. Yet, good is not good enough when it comes to the Chase. Such is the case when there are those who are running great.

Over the past eight Chase events, Jimmie Johnson is averaging better than a fifth place finish. Matt Kenseth has a couple of wins and an average result of just over sixth place. Mere mortals can not compete against that, at least not until someone develops clay feet and returns to earth. If there is any Kryptonite out there, it better turn up at Phoenix and/or Homestead if it is going to do any good for those who have been, well, just good.

Kevin Harvick has been damn good in the Chase. In fact, he would be considered great if not for those other two boys. Dale Earnhardt Jr has done better than a tenth place average. If not for that damn engine blowing up in Chicago.

Ordinarily, during the opening 26 races of the season, Kyle Busch, Jeff Gordon, and Clint Bowyer would have been very pleased. If this had been their first eight, and not their last, they would have thought themselves walking in tall cotton. Even Jamie McMurray and Jeff Burton, both outside the ten best in the Chase events, would have had cause for optimism. Unfortunately for them, this is the time of year when good just is not good enough. Not even very good cuts the mustard.

So, unless bad things happen to good…er…great people at the top of the leader board, there are just two names being considered for etching onto the trophy. Then again, if Junior, Kyle, and Jeff can find themselves outside the Top 30 in a race, there is always a chance that great over eight might not be good enough, either. That is why we will be watching the action from Phoenix on Sunday and why Harvick is still optimistic he could yet leave Homestead, well, happy.

	Driver	Wins	T-5	T-10	Points	Ave. Finish	Best	Worst
1	Jimmie Johnson	2	6	7	330	4.87	1	13
2	Matt Kenseth	2	5	6	320	6.12	1 (x2)	20
3	Kevin Harvick	1	2	6	296	7.75	1	20
4	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.	0	3	6	280	9.75	2	35
5	Kyle Busch	0	5	5	278	10.12	2	34
6	Jeff Gordon	1	3	5	273	11.00	1	38
7	Clint Bowyer	0	1	5	273	10.50	3	17
8	Greg Biffle	0	1	3	266	11.12	3	16 (x2)
9	Joey Logano	0	3	3	248	13.62	3 (x2)	37
10	Brad Keselowski	1	2	4	248	14.00	1	37
11	Kurt Busch	0	2	2	246	13.37	2	21
12	Jamie McMurray	1	2	3	245	14.00	1	31
13	Martin Truex, Jr.	0	0	2	231	15.25	8	22
14	Jeff Burton	0	0	1	230	15.62	8	24
15	Ryan Newman	0	0	5	224	16.62	8 (x2)	38
16	Carl Edwards	0	1	3	220	17.00	5	37
17	Paul Menard	0	1	2	218	16.75	4	24
18	Ricky Stenhouse, Jr.	0	1	2	211	17.75	3	31
19	Kasey Kahne	0	2	2	209	18.37	2	37
20	Denny Hamlin	0	0	3	204	18.62	7 (x2)	38

November 6, 2013

The Final Word – After Texas, Gordon is done, and so might Kenseth be after Phoenix

So, what did we manage to accomplish at Texas this past week? Well, not much.

There was the bursting of the bubble that had Jeff Gordon as an actual Cup contender. When his tire blew, when his car slammed into the fence, when he left with just a couple of points to his credit, that fantasy came to an end. To be honest, even if he had ran tenth, it would have mattered little.

Jimmie Johnson finished first. Matt Kenseth finished fourth. What the rest did was of little consequence at Texas. The seven point lead Johnson has over Kenseth can be made up at Phoenix and Homestead. The 40 point deficit faced by the now third place Kevin Harvick can not. For Johnson, it marked his 66th career win and, most importantly, his 6th of the season. That leaves him just one back of Kenseth in that tie breaker category, should it come to that.

As for the other events from last Sunday, we had Gordon kill his car by hitting the wall. Kyle Busch flattened out his right side earlier, yet still finished 13th. Carl Edwards blew up just past the mid-point to claim 37th. Dale Earnhardt Jr and Joey Logano finished a distant second and third on the day. Other than that, they turned left a lot and we had a couple of debris cautions and another to clean up some oil. For excitement, I did check out some of the NFL action when I had caught up to the live feed on my PVR. Still, it was better than watching soccer, though just barely.

Rating Texas – 5/10 – I do not really have to explain this, do I?

As for Phoenix, Kenseth has run a hundred more laps in two extra races (22 – 20). Jimmie has 4 wins, including a string of three straight, compared to Matt’s one. Johnson is up 13 to 5 in Top Fives and 932 – 212 in laps led. Five Time’s average finish is 6.4, Kenseth is 17.2. I am going to go out on a limb here and say that Jimmie has the advantage this weekend. Enjoy the week.

November 4, 2013
The Final Word – Jimmie and Matt continue their battle, Harvick starts a family feud at Martinsville

We were wrong. We were wrong about the big wild card that is Talladega, though to our credit neither Jimmie Johnson nor Matt Kenseth finished in the top ten that day. Still, even with a runner up finish there, Dale Earnhardt Jr remained miles away from the leaders. Kyle Busch made up all of seven points on Johnson and a whopping 15 on Kenseth, but still nowhere near enough.

We were wrong about Martinsville, which should be renamed Johnsonville the way Jimmie lays it down there. While Jeff Gordon tied Five Time in wins at the paper clip, claiming his 8th at the track and the 88th of his Cup career, and while Johnson made it 17 top fives in 24 attempts, Kenseth finished second. It was only his 4th top five there in 28 attempts. So, it would appear that whatever the 2003 champ did while employed by Jack Roush no longer applies in any negative sense since he joined Joe Gibbs. For Matt, his history is history as he forges a new path.

What we have is a new Matt, a renewed Jimmie, and as we change our focus to Texas we have these boys tied in points, 27 points ahead of Gordon and 28 up on Kevin Harvick. It remains a two way fight, unless fate intervenes and messes up the plans of one or both of them. Could that intervention come in Texas? Based on the past two weeks, how in hell should I know?

Still, both leaders have done well at Fort Worth in the past. Both have a couple of wins there, both have an average finish of better than tenth, both are tied with 15 Top Tens on this track. So, both should do well on Sunday. Should.

There should be peace and harmony the world over, but Kevin Harvick is preparing to leave RCR after a thirteen year association by crapping all over the bosses grandsons. It is one thing to criticize a young driver with whom he had issues in the truck race on Saturday. It is another to state that a reason for the job change next year was due to these punk-ass, rich kids, who have had everything spoon fed to them, coming up to eventual Cup rides with grand pappy while having no respect for the sport. Who urged the boy to run into Harvick to get things nice and hot? Well, that would be Grandpa Childress himself, never mind the less than loving comments the two had in regards to Harvick in the garage area afterwards. Kevin said on Sunday’s telecast that he was sorry. I am sure that will make everything all better between all concerned. Hallmark, no doubt, has a new card to write.

Rating Martinsville – 5.5/10 – The oldest venue on the NASCAR circuit deserved better on Sunday’s telecast. We all did.

Fort Worth just means more of the same. A two-man race with a few waiting in the wings for something bad to happen to the front duo. Maybe we should dub this the Tango in Texas, because it takes two to…ah, forget it. Enjoy the week.

October 28, 2013