Category: Hot 20

Thornton’s Hot 20 in NASCAR

  • Hot 20 – Harvick hoping for some California heat

    Hot 20 – Harvick hoping for some California heat

    Four winners, three of whom sit atop our leader board. As important as victories are this season in determining the Chase contenders, it would be hard to include Kevin Harvick among the best under normal circumstances.

    Harvick may have won at Phoenix, and his 13th at Daytona may have been acceptable. Even his runs at Las Vegas and Bristol were impressive for as long as they lasted, but when you are listed as 41st and 39th in the final results it does take the bloom off the rose. Turns it into stinkweed, to be honest.

    Still, in determining our top performer over the course of a 36-race season, that win does keep Harvick six slots better than the official standings, with the 22 bonus points we hand out to winners. As we are not interested in a Chase or even the television ratings for Homestead, we can dwell on just who has been the best performer. Even with a string of three Top Threes broken up by a 14th at Bristol, that would still be Brad Keselowski to this point.

    If you were wondering, as the action heads west to California this weekend, Regan Smith and Trevor Bayne remain our hot duo in the Nationwide series. I wonder if ESPN will have time to interview them after they are done gushing over Kyle Busch once again at Fontana?  The big boy visiting the little sandbox has won six of the past eight junior circuit events at this track.

    Kyle won the Cup race at Fontana a year ago. Other recent winners include Tony Stewart, Harvick, Jimmie Johnson, Matt Kenseth, and Carl Edwards. No one who isn’t already a someone will visit Victory Lane on Sunday.

     

    Driver

    Win

    Points

    1

      Brad Keselowski

    1

    185

    2

      Dale Earnhardt, Jr.

    1

    175

    3

      Carl Edwards

    1

    174

    4

      Jeff Gordon

    0

    152

    5

      Jimmie Johnson

    0

    143

    6

      Joey Logano

    0

    141

    7

      Denny Hamlin

    0

    140

    8

      Matt Kenseth

    0

    138

    9

      Ryan Newman

    0

    125

    10

      Ricky Stenhouse, Jr.

    0

    122

    11

      Kasey Kahne

    0

    120

    12

      Greg Biffle

    0

    118

    13

      Austin Dillon

    0

    117

    14

      Kevin Harvick

    1

    111

    15

      Kyle Busch

    0

    111

    16

      Marcos Ambrose

    0

    108

    17

      Jamie McMurray

    0

    100

    18

      Paul Menard

    0

    99

    19

      Brian Vickers

    0

    99

    20

      Casey Mears

    0

    97

  • Hot 20 – Earnhardt and Keselowski near perfect heading to Bristol

    Hot 20 – Earnhardt and Keselowski near perfect heading to Bristol

    When you can tout an average finish of 1.67, as in the case of Dale Earnhardt Jr, or Brad Keselowski’s  2.33 you know you are doing something right.  Each has a win, with Junior having a pair of runner up finishes compared to the two third place runs put in by the 2012 champion.  While Kevin Harvick won at Phoenix, his 41st place result at Las Vegas drops him in our search for the most noteworthy driver of the year.

    Bristol is a place Earnhardt has won only once in 28 starts, and that was back in 2004. While he has recorded a top ten only half the time there, his average finish of 11.5 is second best amongst active drivers, only behind the 9.9 of five time winner Kyle Busch.  While the chances are you will not see him crossing the line first on Sunday, odds are he will not be far behind. In his last ten starts there, Junior has come home between six and 16th.  Maybe still on top come next week, but so much for a near perfect pace.

    Keselowski, on the other hand, once won a pair back-to-back at Bristol and was third in the spring race last season. However, he has also finished 30th two of his last five, so it is anybody’s guess if he will experience feast or famine. As for Kyle Busch, he won half of the ten raced at Bristol between 2007 and 2011 and while he has had the odd off day, his last three show results of sixth, second, and 11th. 

    Kurt Busch has not added to his five wins there since 2006, but maybe this is where he can get back on track this season. Jeff Gordon also has won five Bristol events, though none since 2002. Matt Kenseth can be hot and cold in the bowl as well, but he could up his tally to four Bristol wins by matching his result from last fall.  Unless the doctor calls and he winds up heading back to North Carolina before race time to welcome the arrival of the latest addition to his family.

    As we hunt down our season’s top driver, we give 22 additional points to the winner of each race and punt the Chase.  I would expect either Kyle or Matt to move up into third place after this weekend, with both our leaders still atop the ladder when the smoke clears Sunday at Bristol.

    Fin

    Driver

    Points

    Wins

    1

      Dale Earnhardt, Jr.

    155

    1

    2

      Brad Keselowski

    154

    1

    3

      Jimmie Johnson

    117

    0

    4

      Joey Logano

    116

    0

    5

      Jeff Gordon

    115

    0

    6

      Carl Edwards

    105

    0

    7

      Kevin Harvick

    105

    1

    8

      Kyle Busch

    105

    0

    9

      Matt Kenseth

    105

    0

    10

      Denny Hamlin

    101

    0

    11

      Ryan Newman

    97

    0

    12

      Jamie McMurray

    93

    0

    13

      Greg Biffle

    86

    0

    14

      Austin Dillon

    84

    0

    15

      Kasey Kahne

    83

    0

    16

      Casey Mears

    80

    0

    17

      Ricky Stenhouse, Jr.

    80

    0

    18

      Paul Menard

    76

    0

    19

      Marcos Ambrose

    69

    0

    20

      Brian Vickers

    64

    0

  • Hot 20 – In search of the Sprint Cup series 2014 driver of the year

    Hot 20 – In search of the Sprint Cup series 2014 driver of the year

    As justly proud I am of my ancestors, there is a downside to not being born a France. I could have a dream, wake in the morning and jot it all down on a napkin, and there is no chance in hell that it could be NASCAR policy by the afternoon. Some might think that a good thing. I think the circuit’s new emphasis on winning is also a good thing.

    Just win baby, and it is a philosophy many of us can agree with. As I do not have to worry about television numbers or game seven moments, abandoning the Chase and adding 22 points to the winner’s total to a maximum of 70 seems just as good a way as any to determine just who was the most successful any given season.

    Unless the champion at the end of the season turns out to be someone most can not accept, the new Chase elimination system will eventually be accepted. I mean, unless wins and wins alone determine who is king, then there has always been room for argument as to whether a champ was worthy or not.

    We think back to 2003 when one race winner Matt Kenseth won the title over eight race winner Ryan Newman. Still, Kenseth won his crown using the same points system that had been in place for more than thirty years. Back in 1973, David Pearson won 11, Richard Petty had six, but the title that year went to single race victor Benny Parsons. No one seems to be arguing about that outcome today.

    As I am not a France, I have no championship to bestow. However, I am interested in what keeping the present points system, but making a win worth between 25 and 28 points more than the runner-up, would have given us over a 36 race, non-Chase, season. The leader might not wind up our champion, but he sure would be my driver of the year.

    Our Hot 20 as we head to Las Vegas are…

    Pos Driver Points

    Wins

    1

    Dale Earnhardt, Jr.

    112

    1

    2

      Kevin Harvick

    101

    1

    3

      Jeff Gordon

    80

    0

    4

      Jimmie Johnson

    78

    0

    5

      Joey Logano

    75

    0

    6

      Kyle Busch

    71

    0

    7

      Matt Kenseth

    70

    0

    8

      Denny Hamlin

    68

    0

    9

      Carl Edwards

    65

    0

    10

      Casey Mears

    64

    0

    11

      Greg Biffle

    64

    0

    12

      Jamie McMurray

    64

    0

    13

      Ricky Stenhouse, Jr.

    63

    0

    14

      Ryan Newman

    60

    0

    15

      Austin Dillon

    56

    0

    16

      Marcos Ambrose

    49

    0

    17

      Kasey Kahne

    47

    0

    18

      Reed Sorenson

    41

    0

    19

      A.J. Allmendinger

    37

    0

    20

      Tony Stewart

    37

    0

  • Hot 20 – If wins alone decided a champion, you might not be happy with the result

    Hot 20 – If wins alone decided a champion, you might not be happy with the result

    Which driver has the highest level of success? Well, if the point of racing is to finish first, then the answer comes easy. Last Sunday, Dale Earnhardt Jr was the most successful driver in the Daytona 500. There is no argument.

    So, who is the best over the course of an entire season and how should that be measured? NASCAR figures a 16-driver, 10 race, four round elimination system is the way to go. I propose giving 69-70 points per win (up from 47-48) and eliminating the Chase could be another. However, what if NASCAR had decided to award their championship to the driver with the most wins during the season, those with the most successful races, using points as a tie-breaker?

    At present, Richard Petty and Dale Earnhardt lead the way with seven titles, with Jimmie Johnson at six, and Jeff Gordon with four. Five more drivers have each claimed three crowns, all either present or future Hall of Famers in Lee Petty, David Pearson, Cale Yarborough, Darrell Waltrip, and Tony Stewart. However, if wins trumped points per season, the landscape would change, and I dare say a lot of NASCAR fans would not like it.

    Leading the way as the sport’s greatest driver would be Jeff Gordon. Six times between 1995 and 2001, including five straight, he was the season’s most successful driver. Richard Petty did it five times, with David Pearson and Darrell Waltrip one behind. Our three time “winners” would have included Cale Yarborough, Bill Elliott, Rusty Wallace, and Jimmie Johnson. As for Dale Earnhardt, he had the most wins in a season just twice, in 1987 and 1990. I told you some might not like that statistic.

    Why rewrite history, why reinvent the wheel? So, to determine the most successful driver all I did was eliminate the Chase and give added weight to victories.  As we go through the season, I’ll leave it to you to determine if this succeeds in doing so.

    Our hottest 20 drivers coming out of Daytona are…

    Driver Win Points Diff
    1   Dale Earnhardt, Jr. 1 70
    2   Denny Hamlin 0 43 -27
    3   Brad Keselowski 0 42 -28
    4   Jeff Gordon 0 40 -30
    5   Jimmie Johnson 0 40 -30
    6   Matt Kenseth 0 38 -32
    7   Greg Biffle 0 37 -33
    8   Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. 0 37 -33
    9   Austin Dillon 0 36 -34
    10   Joey Logano 0 34 -36
    11   Casey Mears 0 34 -36
    12   Kevin Harvick 0 31 -39
    13   Jamie McMurray 0 30 -40
    14   Bobby Labonte 0 29 -41
    15   Reed Sorenson 0 28 -42
    16   Carl Edwards 0 28 -42
    17   Marcos Ambrose 0 26 -44
    18   Kyle Busch 0 26 -44
    19   Kurt Busch 0 24 -46
    20   Terry Labonte 0 24 -46
  • Hot 20 – As in 2003, the season’s dominant driver might not be our 2014 champion

    Hot 20 – As in 2003, the season’s dominant driver might not be our 2014 champion

    My grandfather might have fought on the front lines in World War I from the time he was 18 until he turned 22, but he did not invent NASCAR. My father might have turned limited educational opportunities in World War II Saskatchewan into a career in public works, but he never ran NASCAR. My cousin Michelle might currently be vacationing in France, but we still are no relations to a certain family. Thus, I have no championship to bestow to any driver. What I do have is an idea to allow us to determine just who is the best driver of 2014, even if they fail to win the “championship” in Miami.

    One need not try to re-invent the wheel. In fact, NASCAR almost came up with the best solution all on their lonesome. The current points system is right on the money, but still fails to fully reward victories. After all, winning is everything and second is just the first loser. So, I would make only two changes. First, increase the victor’s spoils from 47 to 48 points up to 69 or 70 points. That would give the winner a gap of between 22 and 25 points up on the runner up. Second, I would toss the Chase.

    The champion over the past three seasons would still be the champion, while back in 2003 eight race winner Ryan Newman would have taken the crown from single race winner Matt Kenseth. Still, Kenseth would have had a shot of taking it heading into Homestead, and isn’t that all what we should really ask for? Okay, other than to have a champion declared we all might agree is actually the true king of the season.

    2003 DRIVERS WINS POINTS
      Ryan Newman  8 1310
      Jimmie Johnson  3 1271
      Matt Kenseth  1 1258
      Jeff Gordon  3 1222
      Dale Earnhardt, Jr.  2 1204
      Kevin Harvick  1 1187
      Tony Stewart  2 1132
      Bobby Labonte  2 1072
      Kurt Busch  4 1052
      Bill Elliott  1 1046

     

    Still, after more than 30 years with the same system, Kenseth was indeed the legitimate king that season. Even with the ten race Chase, and a field cluttered with non-contenders, enough events were run that we could grudgingly accept that the leader after Homestead should have his name engraved on the trophy. A single race with four survivors surrounded by 39 also-rans, the best among the four getting the prize, might be a bridge too far.

    So, for those of us who want to keep our eye on who was the most dominant over the course of the season, we abandon the Chase and reward each race winner with 22 additional points. I submit that this might be a more legitimate, less contrived way, of deciding who, if not the champion, was the best over the course of the season. That season begins on Sunday.

     

    2013 DRIVERS WINS POINTS Act. Pos.
      Jimmie Johnson  6 1380 1
      Matt Kenseth  7 1357 2
      Kevin Harvick  4 1295 3
      Kyle Busch  4 1251 4
      Carl Edwards  2 1162 13
      Dale Earnhardt, Jr.  0 1144 5
      Clint Bowyer  0 1115 7
      Jeff Gordon  1 1109 6
      Greg Biffle  1 1099 9
      Joey Logano  1 1093 8
      Brad Keselowski  0 1092 14
      Kurt Busch  0 1071 10
      Kasey Kahne  2 1066 12
      Ryan Newman  1 1049 11
      Jamie McMurray  1 1030 15
      Martin Truex, Jr.  1 1020 16
      Paul Menard  0 949 17
      Aric Almirola  0 913 18
      Ricky Stenhouse, Jr.  0 909 19
      Jeff Burton  0 906 20
  • Hot 20 – NASCAR’s paper champions vs the real deal

    Hot 20 – NASCAR’s paper champions vs the real deal

    I guess it was written in stone, after all. NASCAR has gone ahead and, starting this season, will award the season crown to the best finisher amongst just four drivers at the year’s finale in Homestead. I doubt more than a handful would consider such a champion as legitimate, at least among true fans. As for the rest of us, we can either find some other sport to watch, or decide amongst ourselves who really was the best on the season.

    In 1967, Richard Petty won 27 races and the title. No surprise there, but if this new way of doing things had been in place, Petty would not have won the title. Last year, Jimmie Johnson averaged a 5.1 finish over the course of the Chase, but he would not have won the title, either. In fact, had Dale Earnhardt Jr finished second, ahead of Matt Kenseth at Homestead, he would have won the crown under this format. He would have done so without winning a single race all season. Now, that would have been ironic.

    I understand what NASCAR boss Brian France is attempting, but those “game seven” moments just happen. They are not contrived. The Yankees did not fold by design in 2004 to allow the Red Sox to storm back to enter sports history. Even the Super Bowl does not always provide a game seven moment. While the 2013 game was tight, who can forget the 49’ers 55-10 drubbing of the Broncos back in 1990? Even Denver fans can’t get that one out of their heads.

    Once again, we turn to the Fiddler on the Roof and its lesson on tradition. You win titles by consistency, so you need a system that forces championship contenders to run well in order to keep their hopes bright. You need wins, the most cherished statistic, Top Fives and Top Tens in order to succeed.

    If Brian France can put forward his idea, let me provide one of my own. Wins are important, so let us make them worth 17 points more than they currently are. That way, a maximum of 65 points might be realized. Add 11 points to those finishing second through fifth, or a minimum of 50 points for a Top Five. Finish outside the Top Ten, you are an also ran, so let us give those who finish 6th through 10th an additional 6 points, or worth between 40 and 44 points, not including bonus points for leading. Finish 11th, you still receive 33 points, and on down to one for finishing dead last. Maybe, just maybe, we can also dispense with the Chase while we are at it.

    What about the game seven finale? Well, you do not always get that, so just maybe NASCAR should promote, feature, honor, and salute its best of the best. Coronations can be fun, too, if one has a clue about promotion. Maybe recognize those who came close, podium style, like the other racing series. Finishing second or third over the season, indeed at any individual race, is a fine accomplishment. Does NASCAR honor those drivers? Hell, no. Still, it is bewildering that Jimmie Johnson is not marketed as a living legend, or Jeff Gordon or Tony Stewart, for that matter. Instead of cherishing their best, they seem almost embarrassed by them. It is like the MLB trying to play down the Yankees while hoping to some how get the Miami Marlins or the Houston Astros a shot at the World Series.

    Will fans buy into this nonsense? Some probably will, tossing tradition into the scrap heap. Some never will. No one will beat Petty and Earnhardt’s string of titles in their minds. Why? Because no other champion will be legitimate, unless they also happen to have been the best over the course of the entire season…Chase be damned.

    Using my proposed system, here is a look at the Hot 20 drivers over the 2013 season, those who proved themselves to be among the best, no gimmicks needed.

    Points awarded as they presently are, with the exception of Wins worth 63 points (for a maximum of 65), Top Fives are worth from 50 – 53 points, and Top Tens are worth from 40- 44 points.

    Pos

    Driver

    Points

    W

    T5

    T10

    1

      Jimmie Johnson

    1505

    6

    16

    24

    2

      Matt Kenseth

    1424

    7

    12

    20

    3

      Kevin Harvick

    1402

    4

    9

    21

    4

      Kyle Busch

    1399

    4

    16

    22

    5

      Dale Earnhardt, Jr.

    1326

    0

    10

    22

    6

      Clint Bowyer

    1279

    0

    10

    19

    7

      Carl Edwards

    1271

    2

    9

    16

    8

      Joey Logano

    1246

    1

    11

    19

    9

      Jeff Gordon

    1235

    1

    8

    17

    10

      Kurt Busch

    1222

    0

    11

    16

    11

      Brad Keselowski

    1212

    0

    9

    16

    12

      Greg Biffle

    1181

    1

    4

    13

    13

      Kasey Kahne

    1173

    2

    11

    14

    14

      Ryan Newman

    1171

    1

    6

    18

    15

      Martin Truex, Jr.

    1129

    1

    7

    15

    16

      Jamie McMurray

    1088

    1

    4

    9

    17

      Paul Menard

    1018

    0

    3

    9

    18

      Juan Pablo Montoya

    962

    0

    4

    8

    19

      Aric Almirola

    954

    0

    1

    6

    20

      Jeff Burton

    952

    0

    2

    6

  • Hot 20 over the Chase 10 – Jimmie Johnson was not perfect, but more than good enough in 2013

    Hot 20 over the Chase 10 – Jimmie Johnson was not perfect, but more than good enough in 2013

    A mulligan is a do over, a chance to remove from consideration what one has done in the hopes of replacing it with something done better. This year in the Chase, a mulligan was no more than the name of a steam shovel operator from a book in primary school.

    So, what would constitute a mulligan in Jimmie Johnson’s world? The closest he came during the Chase would have been his 13th place finish at Talladega. It was the only track he failed to record a Top Ten, one of just three he was not in the Top Five in those ten events. Matt Kenseth was 20th at Talladega and 23rd at Phoenix. Kevin Harvick was 20th at Loudon. Dale Earnhardt Jr had a 35th place result in Chicago, and 15th at Charlotte. All in all, pretty darn good, just not good enough when compared to the six time champion.

    Johnson won the title by 19 points over Kenseth in the official standings and he was best over the ten Chase races by 22. Even if we went old school with a 36 race tally, Six Pack would have beat out Harvick by 41 points over the season and Kenseth by 56 to claim the crown. In short, Johnson did not allow any mulligan’s to be used, as a finish outside the Top 13 pretty much ended one’s hopes. His average finish in the Chase was a very hot 5.1.

    The good news is that his standard, this hot streak, can, and has been done better. From August 12 through October 1st in 1967, Richard Petty’s average finish was 1…with a record of ten straight victories. Yes, it can be done but something tells me that this might not offer much solace to those hoping to keep J.J. from tying the King and the Intimidator in season championships in 2014.

    Here is a look at our hottest 20 drivers over the ten Chase races.

    Driver

    W

    T5

    T10

    Ave

    Pts

    1

    Jimmie Johnson

    2

    7

    9

    5.1

    407

    2

    Matt Kenseth

    2

    6

    7

    7.4

    385

    3

    Kevin Harvick

    2

    3

    8

    7.3

    379

    4

    Dale Earnhardt, Jr.

    0

    5

    8

    8.5

    363

    5

    Kyle Busch

    0

    5

    7

    9.5

    352

    6

    Jeff Gordon

    1

    3

    5

    11.3

    337

    7

    Clint Bowyer

    0

    2

    6

    10.9

    336

    8

    Brad Keselowski

    1

    2

    5

    12.9

    321

    9

    Joey Logano

    0

    3

    5

    12.6

    320

    10

    Greg Biffle

    0

    1

    3

    12.6

    318

    11

    Kurt Busch

    0

    3

    3

    13.3

    309

    12

    Martin Truex, Jr.

    0

    1

    4

    13.4

    307

    13

    Jamie McMurray

    1

    2

    3

    16

    286

    14

    Ryan Newman

    0

    0

    6

    16

    286

    15

    Kasey Kahne

    0

    3

    3

    16.2

    283

    16

    Jeff Burton

    0

    0

    1

    16.5

    278

    17

    Carl Edwards

    0

    1

    3

    16.9

    276

    18

    Denny Hamlin

    1

    1

    4

    17.8

    268

    19

    Ricky Stenhouse, Jr.

    0

    1

    2

    17.6

    265

    20

    Paul Menard

    0

    1

    2

    18.9

    251

  • Hot 20 over the Chase Eight – Good just isn’t good enough when great is what it takes in the Chase

    Hot 20 over the Chase Eight – Good just isn’t good enough when great is what it takes in the Chase

    Average a Top Ten finish and you are doing good. Very good. Yet, good is not good enough when it comes to the Chase. Such is the case when there are those who are running great.

    Over the past eight Chase events, Jimmie Johnson is averaging better than a fifth place finish. Matt Kenseth has a couple of wins and an average result of just over sixth place. Mere mortals can not compete against that, at least not until someone develops clay feet and returns to earth. If there is any Kryptonite out there, it better turn up at Phoenix and/or Homestead if it is going to do any good for those who have been, well, just good.

    Kevin Harvick has been damn good in the Chase. In fact, he would be considered great if not for those other two boys. Dale Earnhardt Jr has done better than a tenth place average. If not for that damn engine blowing up in Chicago.  

    Ordinarily, during the opening 26 races of the season, Kyle Busch, Jeff Gordon, and Clint Bowyer would have been very pleased. If this had been their first eight, and not their last, they would have thought themselves walking in tall cotton. Even Jamie McMurray and Jeff Burton, both outside the ten best in the Chase events, would have had cause for optimism. Unfortunately for them, this is the time of year when good just is not good enough. Not even very good cuts the mustard.

    So, unless bad things happen to good…er…great people at the top of the leader board, there are just two names being considered for etching onto the trophy. Then again, if Junior, Kyle, and Jeff can find themselves outside the Top 30 in a race, there is always a chance that great over eight might not be good enough, either.  That is why we will be watching the action from Phoenix on Sunday and why Harvick is still optimistic he could yet leave Homestead, well, happy.

     


     

    Driver

    Wins

    T-5

    T-10

    Points

    Ave. Finish

    Best

    Worst

    1

    Jimmie Johnson

    2

    6

    7

    330

    4.87

    1

    13

    2

    Matt Kenseth

    2

    5

    6

    320

    6.12

    1 (x2)

    20

    3

    Kevin Harvick

    1

    2

    6

    296

    7.75

    1

    20

    4

    Dale Earnhardt, Jr.

    0

    3

    6

    280

    9.75

    2

    35

    5

    Kyle Busch

    0

    5

    5

    278

    10.12

    2

    34

    6

    Jeff Gordon

    1

    3

    5

    273

    11.00

    1

    38

    7

    Clint Bowyer

    0

    1

    5

    273

    10.50

    3

    17

    8

    Greg Biffle

    0

    1

    3

    266

    11.12

    3

    16 (x2)

    9

    Joey Logano

    0

    3

    3

    248

    13.62

    3 (x2)

    37

    10

    Brad Keselowski

    1

    2

    4

    248

    14.00

    1

    37

    11

    Kurt Busch

    0

    2

    2

    246

    13.37

    2

    21

    12

    Jamie McMurray

    1

    2

    3

    245

    14.00

    1

    31

    13

    Martin Truex, Jr.

    0

    0

    2

    231

    15.25

    8

    22

    14

    Jeff Burton

    0

    0

    1

    230

    15.62

    8

    24

    15

    Ryan Newman

    0

    0

    5

    224

    16.62

    8 (x2)

    38

    16

    Carl Edwards

    0

    1

    3

    220

    17.00

    5

    37

    17

    Paul Menard

    0

    1

    2

    218

    16.75

    4

    24

    18

    Ricky Stenhouse, Jr.

    0

    1

    2

    211

    17.75

    3

    31

    19

    Kasey Kahne

    0

    2

    2

    209

    18.37

    2

    37

    20

    Denny Hamlin

    0

    0

    3

    204

    18.62

    7 (x2)

    38

  • Hot 20 over the Chase six – Past 10 matters little to Johnson, as it is all about the 6 since Richmond and the 4 to come

    Hot 20 over the Chase six – Past 10 matters little to Johnson, as it is all about the 6 since Richmond and the 4 to come

    Usually, one gets a general perspective on how a driver has been performing recently by taking a look at his past ten efforts. Ten, a nice round number that just so happens to also be the exact number of races in the Chase. You would think, barring adjustments for pre-Chase bonuses, it might give you an idea how things are going for those chasing a championship. You would think.

    That was before Jimmie Johnson sandbagged the final four pre-Chase events.  In those races, Johnson picked up a whopping 33 points. That is the same as he got last week finishing 13th at Talladega. Matt Kenseth, in those same four races, earned 148 points. Then they leveled the playing field. However, before anyone moans how unfair the Chase is to the season’s best, it actually has penalized Johnson and benefited Kenseth.  Remember, before the re-jig, Kenseth was in fifth place, 35 points behind Carl Edwards and 34 in arrears of Johnson, who was still second despite his pre-Chase problems. If not for the Chase, the standings would have Johnson leading Harvick by 33, with Kenseth third 41 back. So, the right guy is leading the way, albeit by 4 Chase points.

    As for being hot or not with four races to go in the season, it comes down to room for growth. As we replace the results from Michigan, Bristol, Atlanta, and Richmond with those coming from Martinsville, Fort Worth, Phoenix, and Homestead, Kenseth can better his total by no more than 44 points. Johnson can better his by 159.

    What that does, however, is make the hot 20 over the past ten races rather meaningless, with Kenseth presently 108 points better than the 15th ranked Johnson. Compress it down to the six Chase races to date and it becomes clear who indeed leads the way.  The ten race average will again become meaningful, but not before Homestead. Thanks a bunch, Jimmie.

    Here is a look at our hottest 20 drivers over the course of the Chase…

     

    Driver

    Wins

    T-5

    T-10

    Points

    Rank

    1

    Jimmie Johnson

    1

    4

    5

    242

    1

    2

    Matt Kenseth

    2

    3

    4

    235

    2

    3

    Kevin Harvick

    1

    2

    4

    222

    3

    4

    Jeff Gordon

    0

    2

    4

    220

    5

    5

    Kyle Busch

    0

    5

    5

    216

    4

    6

    Dale Earnhardt, Jr.

    0

    2

    4

    202

    6

    7

    Jamie McMurray

    1

    2

    2

    198

    14

    8

    Greg Biffle

    0

    1

    2

    198

    7

    9

    Clint Bowyer

    0

    0

    3

    197

    8

    10

    Kurt Busch

    0

    2

    2

    193

    9

    11

    Ryan Newman

    0

    0

    4

    182

    11

    12

    Carl Edwards

    0

    1

    3

    180

    10

    13

    Jeff Burton

    0

    0

    1

    176

    20

    14

    Joey Logano

    0

    2

    2

    176

    12

    15

    Martin Truex, Jr.

    0

    0

    2

    173

    17

    16

    Ricky Stenhouse, Jr.

    0

    1

    2

    170

    19

    17

    Brad Keselowski

    1

    1

    2

    169

    15

    18

    Paul Menard

    0

    1

    2

    167

    16

    19

    Aric Almirola

    0

    0

    1

    155

    18

    20

    Kasey Kahne

    0

    1

    1

    153

    13

  • Hot 20 over the past 10, the past 5, and how Talladega could change everything

    Hot 20 over the past 10, the past 5, and how Talladega could change everything

    A Top Ten finish for ten straight races, and a driver would accumulate a minimum of 340 points. That is hot. Kevin Harvick, and the Busch boys are that hot, but Matt Kenseth has been nearly 40 points hotter, so a bad day at Talladega on Sunday would mean he would make his championship dreams more of a challenge. The others go down and so do their hopes.

    Jimmie Johnson is still rated as cool over the past ten, but remains second in the Chase. His is a case of earning just 69 points in the five pre-Chase races that do not count toward the title and the 209 he has claimed in the five that do.  Kenseth, with his two wins in the Chase, has accumulated 210 over the last five, as this chart would sport a slightly different look if we took into account only what has happened since Chicago instead of Watkins Glen.

     

    Driver

    Win

    T5

    T10

    Points

    1

    Matt Kenseth

    2

    3

    4

    210

    2

    Jimmie Johnson

    1

    4

    5

    209

    3

    Kevin Harvick

    1

    2

    4

    190

    4

    Jeff Gordon

    0

    2

    4

    189

    5

    Kyle Busch

    0

    4

    4

    176

     But then, I would have to change the title of this column. Barring misfortune, we should see Johnson charging up these standings over the final four events. Barring misfortune, we should see Kenseth maintaining his hold on the point position. Barring misfortune, we should see Harvick, Jeff Gordon, and Kyle Busch battling it out to see who finishes third. Barring the Big One at Talladega, there are a lot of things we might be expected to see, but what we have come to expect from the big track could change the fortunes of more than a few by the end of Sunday.  It was just one year ago when we had a massive 25 car demolition on the final lap at Talladega.  Kenseth was ahead of the pack and won that day. Can he be so fortunate in 2013?

    Here is a look at the hottest 20 drivers over the past 10 events.

     

    Driver

    Win

    T5

    T10

    Points

    LW

    Rank

    1

    Matt Kenseth

    3

    4

    6

    379

    1

    1

    2

    Kevin Harvick

    1

    3

    6

    343

    6

    3

    3

    Kyle Busch

    2

    6

    6

    341

    5

    5

    4

    Kurt Busch

    0

    5

    6

    340

    2

    7

    5

    Jeff Gordon

    0

    2

    7

    337

    4

    4

    6

    Joey Logano

    1

    5

    6

    337

    3

    11

    7

    Greg Biffle

    0

    1

    4

    324

    7

    6

    8

    Ryan Newman

    0

    2

    5

    313

    8

    12

    9

    Jamie McMurray

    0

    2

    2

    306

    9

    15

    10

    Carl Edwards

    1

    3

    6

    306

    10

    10

    11

    Juan Pablo Montoya

    0

    2

    3

    296

    14

    22

    12

    Paul Menard

    0

    2

    4

    293

    12

    17

    13

    Dale Earnhardt, Jr.

    0

    1

    5

    284

    11

    9

    14

    Marcos Ambrose

    0

    0

    3

    283

    12

    19

    15

    Brad Keselowski

    1

    2

    3

    282

    16

    14

    16

    Jimmie Johnson

    1

    4

    6

    278

    17

    2

    17

    Jeff Burton

    0

    0

    2

    273

    18

    20

    18

    Kasey Kahne

    0

    2

    3

    271

    15

    13

    19

    Ricky Stenhouse, Jr.

    0

    0

    2

    267

    21

    21

    20

    Clint Bowyer

    0

    1

    4

    246

    22

    8

    21

    Martin Truex, Jr.

    0

    2

    4

    244

    19

    16

    22

    Aric Almirola

    0

    0

    1

    242

    20

    18