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Tag: 2011 Chase for the Sprint Cup

  • Matty’s Picks: Vol. 28 – Homestead-Miami – November 20, 2011

    Matty’s Picks: Vol. 28 – Homestead-Miami – November 20, 2011

    [media-credit name=”miamihomesteadspeedway.com” align=”alignright” width=”254″][/media-credit]It all comes down to this, one race, three points, one NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Champion. 65,000+ will be on hand Sunday Evening to witness the battle between two-time Sprint Cup Series Champion, Tony Stewart, and number-one contender for the title, Carl Edwards.

    Both men have visited Victory Lane twice in their driving careers, so the tale of the tape sets the stage for an exciting finale this Sunday. The stats speak for themselves this week, with both drivers having success at Homestead-Miami Speedway:

    Stewart
    2 – Wins (1999,2000)
    3 – Top-5’s
    6 – Top-10’s
    12.4 – Average Finish
    3206 – Laps Completed (Most of any driver)

    Edwards
    2 – Wins (2008,2010)
    4 – Top-5’s
    6 – Top-10’s
    5.7 – Average Finish
    441 – Laps Led (Most of any driver)

    Stewart has run all 12 races at Homestead, whereas Edwards has only participated in 7 of the season finales at the track.

    This is the first year that I can remember that The Chase for the Sprint Cup will not come down to Jimmie Johnson NOT finishing the race in 43rd to clinch the title spot. Although Carl Edwards has not won a race during this 2011 Chase for the Sprint Cup, the new points system has done what it was designed to do, and that’s create a battle until the final lap of the final race of the season.

    I personally do not understand how a guy that has won 4 of the last 11 races does not hold a commanding lead heading into this final race of the 2011 Sprint Cup season, but the “Shootout to the finish” that NASCAR fans have hoped for, has finally become a reality. I am not the kind of person that rewards mediocrity and have often been doted with a “checkers or wreckers” mentality, but I am a bit excited to see this title battle come down to two extremely talented drivers.

    I will be following the first portion of the race on Sunday from a perch high above a little-known Whitetail feeding ground via Twitter updates on Sunday Afternoon (so Mikey, remind me to have a full battery in my cell-phone heading to my tree-stand for night watch).

    Phoenix Recap

    Not a very good Winner Pick for me last week in Jimmie Johnson, wielding an un-traditional paint scheme on the No.48 Lowe’s/KOBALT Tools Chevrolet last week. Its been a rough go of it for Johnson in this 2011 Chase for the Sprint Cup, and just when I thought he was due for a win, I was wrong.

    Johnson started 16th last Sunday, and used pit strategy to climb as high as 8th within the first 100 laps. But with little rubber down on the new racing surface at Phoenix International Raceway, fresh tires became a hot commodity as the race wore on. The early, two-tire stop proved to be detrimental to Johnson’s push to the front, as he told his team his car was “scary loose” just before the midway point in the Kobalt Tools 500.

    The crew worked the rest of the race to tighten Johnson’s car up, but only managed to sneak his way back to a 14th place finish.

    My Dark Horse pick last week, Jeff Burton, finished better than my Winner Pick for the first time since the Bank of America 500 at Charlotte last month. It just so happens that my Winner Pick for that race in Charlotte was Jimmie Johnson, and my Dark Horse for that race was last-week’s race winner, Kasey Kahne. Also interesting that my Dark Horse pick last week finished in the exact same position (4th) as Kahne did in October at Charlotte, the last time I picked Johnson as my Winner Pick. Now I’m rambling on…..lay off Uncle Ed.

    Anyway, my Dark Horse was a solid pick for me last week, and if it wasn’t for the willpower of Cousin Carl Edwards, I would have netted myself a Top-3 Dark Horse Pick last week at Phoenix. Yet again, had Carl Edwards not passed Jeff Burton in the closing laps of the Kobalt Tools 500 last week, we wouldn’t have such a close margin between first and second in points heading into this weekend’s grand finale.

    Homestead-Miami Picks

    Due to Mother Nature, I have nothing to go off of making my final picks of the season this week, as rain has delayed all on-track activities this afternoon in Miami.

    Winner Pick

    I have a gut feeling that the winner of Sunday’s race is going also be the 2011 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Champion, but I will make it fun and not go with one of the two guys in the battle for the championship this year.

    “The Closer” is the guy I’m picking to win this Sunday at Homestead, against my better judgment. Kevin Harvick sits 51-points behind Carl Edwards in Sprint Cup Series points standings, and also yields a rather impressive history at Homestead.

    Despite not ever visiting Victory Lane at Homestead, Harvick boasts a rather impressive average finish of 7.9 at the 1.5-mile oval. He also has five Top-5’s and eight Top-10’s at Homestead, completing all but one lap of 10 races he’s started in South Florida.

    It’s Harvick I’m going with this week just to make this column remotely interesting, so watch for the Budweiser to be flowing in Victory Lane this week.

    Dark Horse Pick

    The 16th place driver in the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series’ points standings is A.J. Allmendinger. The guy I’m looking at to mix up the Top-10 this week at Homestead is A.J. Allmendinger. He’s coming off a 6th-place finish last week at Phoenix, falling just one spot short of his season-best.

    Allmendinger has finished in the Top-10, four times in this 2011 Chase for the Sprint Cup, with two coming in the last two weeks. His short history at Homestead-Miami Speedway has included a 5th, a 10th, and an 11th-place finish, most notably last year starting and finishing in the 5th position. Possibly his most impressive run at the 1.5-mile oval in South Florida was in 2008 when he started dead last on the grid and drove his way all the way to an 11th-place finish.

    Bonus Pick: Who Wins the Championship?

    It’s Stewart that wins the 2011 Chase for the Sprint Cup on Sunday…

    I think that consistency will run out for Carl Edwards this weekend, and Stewart will prevail in the end. He’s been untouchable the past 11 races, and I don’t see anything changing this weekend.

    If Stewart can manage to find the point early, he controls his own destiny. The worst thing that can happen for Smoke is for Edwards to get out front and for Stewart to play catch-up the remainder of the race. Edwards has been lucky up to this point, and I think it runs out this weekend with Smoke claiming his 3rd NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Championship.

    That’s it for this grand finale this weekend, and stay tuned next week for my 2011 Season Wrap-Up of Matty’s Picks.

    Until Next Time…You Stay Classy NASCAR NATION!

  • Matty’s Picks: Wonderful Pistachios 400 Vol. 17 – Richmond – September 10, 2011

    Matty’s Picks: Wonderful Pistachios 400 Vol. 17 – Richmond – September 10, 2011

    [media-credit id=18 align=”alignright” width=”225″][/media-credit]It all comes down to this! The regular season will officially come to a close and the post-season will officially begin after the dust settles Saturday Night.

    Officially, nine of 12 tickets to this year’s Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup have been given out, with a record 14 drivers still in the hunt for one of the three remaining spots in The Chase. Previously, the most drivers mathematically eligible for one of the unclaimed spots in The Chase for the Sprint Cup heading into Richmond was seven, dating back to 2005.

    If you’re wondering if your driver has a guaranteed spot on The Chase stage, Jimmie Johnson, Kyle Busch, Carl Edwards, Matt Kenseth, Jeff Gordon, Kevin Harvick, Kurt Busch, and Ryan Newman are all guaranteed spots in the Top-10 for the first race of the 2011 Chase. These drivers will also receive bonus points in The Chase for their winning efforts during the first 26 races of the season.

    The other driver who has a guarantee from NASCAR to put his toys in the box this year is Brad Keselowski. Keselowski has made his position known by way of his three wins on the season, two of which coming in the last five races. In the words of my high school wrestling coach, “Matty, it’s not always about being good all the time, but being good at the RIGHT time.” Keselowski has been on a roll heading into The Chase, finishing outside the top-three just once in the past five races.

    Atlanta Recap

    Rain, Rain, Go Away! was the tune sang last week in Atlanta, after the Sprint Cup race had to be postponed from Sunday evening until Tuesday morning. At a racetrack known for close finishes, the race Tuesday was nothing short of what was expected out of a race at Atlanta Motor Speedway.

    My winner pick fought diligently to take the lead about ¾ through the race, but fell a half-second short of victory to race-winner Jeff Gordon on lap 325. Jimmie Johnson rolled off the starting grid in 17th place on Tuesday, and threw the book at his car in an effort to make it drive better.

    “The first two runs the car was pretty bad. And Chad made some great adjustments on pit road to get the car in the track to where I could carry any speed in and through the center and then use the throttle off. Before that I was on ice and couldn’t drive the car” said Johnson following his runner-up finish.

    Johnson was even in the lead with 50 to go, but finally surrendered the lead to a charging Jeff Gordon, who really had the car to beat on Tuesday Afternoon. Still, I can not complain about a second-place finish following my blunder just two weeks ago at Bristol.

    My Dark Horse pick handed me my worst finish of the year on Tuesday. A 36th place finish was what I had to show for a Dark Horse pick last week due to an accident involving Juan Montoya and my pick, Clint Bowyer on lap 243.

    Bowyer earned his career-best starting position for the race Tuesday morning by laying down an absolutely flawless lap on Saturday, good enough to start second. For the majority of the first half of the race, Bowyer was a staple in the Top-10, but after contact with Montoya on lap 243, Bowyer found himself waiting in the garage while the “Helping Hands” pit crew worked diligently to get the No. 33 Chevrolet back in racing order.

    Bowyer had this to say about the incident with Montoya: “We had a really good Cheerios/Hamburger Helper Chevrolet today and got wrecked by another competitor who was racing stupid and not showing any patience. It sounds like we are going to have to win next week to make the Chase for (the NASCAR Sprint Cup) and we run well in Richmond. We had a top-10 car this weekend and I expect us to have one in Richmond. This team isn’t going down without a fight.”

    Richmond Picks

    This week, I will do something I’ve yet to do this season with Matty’s picks…pick a driver two weeks in a row. I might get some backlash for doing it, but its really the right thing to do this week.

    Winner Pick

    My winner pick this week was my Dark Horse last week and is the guy to beat this week not only because of his history at RIR, but for the passion he will be driving with on Saturday night.

    Clint Bowyer stands on the outside looking in on The Chase for the Sprint Cup now in 14th place heading into the race Saturday Night. He lost two spots with his finish last week at Atlanta and is hungry to show that he deserves to race for the Sprint Cup this year. He needs to win Saturday night to make the last 10 races meaningful this season, and needs help (not in a positive way) from Denny Hamlin if he has any chance of making The Chase.

    6th place seems to be Bowyer’s favorite finishing spot the past few years at RIR, with three 6th place finishes in the past four races at the track. He did have the opportunity to visit Victory Lane at Richmond in May of 2009, and boasts a 9.5 average finish at RIR.

    Bowyer may be a ringer pick for the race Saturday night, and judging by his practice speeds earlier today, he will make things interesting not only in the 400-lap race, but for the last few covenanted spots in The Chase.

    Dark Horse Pick

    My Dark Horse pick is also a guy who needs a win plus some help from other drivers to make the 2011 Chase field. Marcos Ambrose has one win this year already, and sits just outside the Top-20 in points in 21st position.

    In order to be a part of the Chase field, Marcos Ambrose would have to win the Wonderful Pistachios 400 Saturday Night, but also enter the Top-20 in the points standings to seal up the second and final Wild Card spot this season.

    Now, the driver sitting 20th in points seems to be little to no threat to win Saturday night, as he has yet to finish any better than 16th at the D-shaped short-track, a positive statistic for Ambrose. Marcos Ambrose sits seven points behind Menard in 21st, but a win out of him and an average finish from Paul Menard would give him enough of a points gain to end up in a Wild Card spot for The Chase.

    Ambrose is hungry to show he belongs among NASCAR’s elite with a spot in the 2011 Chase for the Sprint Cup. He does have two Top-10’s at Richmond, including a 5th-place finish last year in this exact race. I know it may seem like a real long-shot, but I’ve seen stranger things happen…

    This wraps up the regular season for Matty’s Picks, but stay tuned next week for my thoughts on the start of the Chase and my picks for Chicagoland.

    Until Next Time…You Stay Classy NASCAR NATION!