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Matty’s Picks Vol. 18 – Cheez-It 355 at The Glen – Watkins Glen International – August 10, 2013

This week we travel back to the place that was the start of my NASCAR days. Sunday’s race at Watkins Glen International marks my 19th consecutive year at The Glen and it’s a track near and dear to my heart, and no matter where life takes me, it will always serve as my ‘Hometown Track’. The Glen may not be the most famous stock car track in the world, but it produces some of the best beating and banging NASCAR has to offer. The past two NASCAR Sprint Cup Series races at The Glen have also produced arguably the best finishes in as many seasons, so if you’re thinking about

My first memories of WGI involve standing on a trash can on the inside of Turn 11 while my father tried to time a photo just right in order to capture a snapshot of The Intimidator and one of his biggest fans in the same frame. That moment is one of the most special memories I have in racing and is something that keeps me coming back year after year.

In my teenage years, Ed Coombs taught me the art of obtaining autographs outside the motor-coach lots when Ron Hornaday invited me inside the fences and into his motor-coach for a quick autograph and meet and greet, so I’ve had some great experiences at The Glen over the years.

I’ve had some great times at Watkins Glen over the years, and continue to add to my bank of memories each year.

Now that the trip down memory lane is over, we can get to some numbers, and we’ll start with how important it is to qualify well at The Glen. Nine of the thirty races at Watkins Glen have been won from the pole position, including 3 straight wins from the pole for Mark Martin from 1993-1995. To add to my point, 22 of the 30 races all-time have been won from starting spots inside the top 10, and the furthest back a race winner has started was Steve Park from the 18th position back in 2000.

The starting field has been set and two-time Watkins Glen winner and overwhelming favorite, Marcos Ambrose will start on the pole with Clint Bowyer sharing the front row with Ambrose. The other road-course winner in 2013, Martin Truex Jr. will start from the third position with another Toyota in AJ Allmendinger starting fourth. Kyle Busch will start fifth, and the Sonoma pole-sitter, Jamie McMurray will start next to Busch on row number three.

Last year’s race finished in dramatic fashion as Marcos Ambrose and champion-to-be Brad Keselowski traded paint on and off the racing surface during the race’s final lap, also being voted as one of the best finishes in NASCAR HISTORY.

Since practice, qualifying, and now the NASCAR Nationwide series race have all concluded, I’m ready to try and make some educated picks and share my thoughts for the outcome of tomorrow’s 28th Annual Cheez-It 355 at The Glen.

Winner Pick

On Wednesday, I previewed the race this weekend at The Glen with Greg on the Prime Sports Network, and I had Kyle Busch as my top pick, Marcos Ambrose as my number two guy, and Martin Truex Jr. and AJ Allmendinger as longshot plays this week. One factor in my picks on Wednesday which is a bit different than my column here on SpeedwayMedia.com is the odds at the time of my picks. On Wednesday, Marcos Ambrose was the overwhelming favorite to win at Watkins Glen this weekend. The odds were a bit better with Kyle Busch at 8 to 1 so I made him my top pick on Wednesday.

Well, I’m going to swap my top pick for my number two pick from Wednesday for a couple of reasons. I’ve recently been making picks based on trends, not steering from the recent race trends. Here is the trend I found the last time a driver won three Sprint Cup races in a row at Watkins Glen International – they started on the pole at least once. Both Mark Martin and Jeff Gordon, the two drivers who have won three in a row at The Glen both started on the pole during their stretch of wins.

Marcos Ambrose has two wins in a row at Watkins Glen going into Sunday’s race, and both of those wins were not from the pole or the front row even. The pole position is the most proficient starting spot in the field producing 9 wins in 30 races. The best road-course driver in stock car racing has that pole position for tomorrow’s Cheez-It 355 at The Glen and was extremely modest about his record-breaking lap after he claimed the Coors Light Pole,

“It was a great lap. It wasn’t perfect. It wasn’t the cleanest lap I could have done, but it certainly carried a lot of momentum and it was enough to get the job done….We were the lucky one on the day to get the pole, so I’m very proud of our day. I’m looking forward to the race and feel like we have as good a chance as anybody to win and go three in a row.”

It’s that confidence I like, and with his first practice session being spent in race trim and the No. 9 team being shown second on the speed charts, its’ Ambrose as my Winner Pick this week.

Dark Horse Pick

Unlike my winner pick, my Dark Horse or longer plays have not changed. I like both Martin Truex Jr. and AJ Allmendinger who were my longshot plays on Wednesday. It was Truex who was shown on top of the speed charts in first practice on Friday in both speed and best 10 lap average, and it’s Truex as my Dark Horse of the week.

Martin Truex Jr. likes the car Michael Waltrip Racing has provided for him this week, and it’s again the confidence I like at a track as tough as Watkins Glen.

“Typically we have not qualified well here. We always raced well. We had such a good car in race trim (on Friday). I felt like we were definitely the fastest car here and that kind of made me back off a little bit (in qualifying) to get a nice and consistent lap in.”

Those are my picks, be sure to tune in to www.PrimeSportsNetwork.com at 7:00PM tonight as Greg, Ed Coombs, and I give a final preview of tomorrow’s Cheez-It 355 at The Glen. Follow me on Twitter @ML_B_Lo for live action from Watkins Glen International.

So, until next time…You Stay Classy NASCAR NATION!

August 10, 2013
Matty’s Picks 2013 – Vol. 15 Coke Zero 400 – Daytona International Speedway – July 6, 2013

Daytona needs no introduction this week. Since it’s the Crown Jewel of NASCAR, everyone knows the history of the track and the races its produced over the years, so I’ll keep it short and talk a little bit about what I was able to gather from the February races – including that “HISTORIC” Daytona 500.

If you got past the fact that Danica was on the pole for the Daytona 500 and all the hoopla that surrounded that story, you would have seen that the Daytona 500 this year was pretty boring as far as plate races go. It could have been because of that early crash that put a lot of the top guys out of contention – Kasey Kahne, Kevin Harvick, Jamie McMurray, Juan Pablo Montoya, Tony Stewart, Brad Kesolowski, and Kyle Busch, – that was all about 30 laps in, so a lot of the heavy hitters were out early.

The race was boring in the sense that nobody could really pass. Matt Kenseth led 86 laps before he blew up, and it seemed like anyone who stepped out of line really paid the price, even if they had a car to help push. It was pretty much follow the leader and a lot of the guys complained over the two weeks about not being able to pass in the then brand new Gen6 racecar.
One word of caution this week is with the Toyotas, and there has been talk about their engine issues the past few weeks. These engines haven’t been tested since Michigan where it was announced they would not be scaling back the horsepower any further, but the series hasn’t been at tracks where engine longevity has been a factor since Greg Biffle’s win at Michigan. Toyota has won JUST ONE points race at Daytona in 132 races. Matt Kenseth and Kyle Busch both blew up in the Daytona 500, and Martin Truex Jr. had engine issues as well, certainly something to consider this week when making your picks.

Kentucky Recap

I picked Kyle Busch last week at a place where it is impossible not to mention him where his performances over the years have been nothing less than exemplary. Busch started his No. 18 Doublemint Toyota in fourth and raced inside the top five through the early portion of the race before he got loose and caused a caution. Busch would have to restart in 37th but would climb all the way back to the top 15 by lap 83 and great work by his Doublemint team and a little pit strategy would help him get back inside the top five for a restart on lap 93. Busch would continue to run up front with the leaders while battling changing handling conditions. Despite the challenges all night, Busch and the Doublemint team managed to scrape together another Top-5 at Kentucky.

As for my Dark Horse, Joey Logano, also known as the hottest driver in NASCAR not named Kevin Harvick, had another solid week in the No. 22 Pennzoil Ford Fusion. The team qualified 11th for the Quaker State 400, and with solid pit stops and consistent adjustments by Crew Chief Todd Gordon, Logano began to climb through the front of the field by lap 110. Logano never ran outside the Top 5 in the second-half of the race, until the final restart with about 20 laps to go. He restarted 7th and made a bold move on the restart, moving up to 4th where he would cross the finish line, netting himself his 5th top-five of this 2013 season.

Daytona Picks

Winner Pick
I didn’t pull out my dice and roll them to pick my winner this week, but I did, I think the dice would have revealed the numbers two and nine meaning the guy I’d be looking at this week is the hottest guy in the sport right now and that’s Kevin Harvick.

Harvick was unlucky earlier this year when he crashed early in the Daytona 500. He won the Sprint Unlimited, won his Duel race, and was certainly one of the cars to beat. As far as the stats go, he’s won two races at Daytona and if you throw in the duel races he’s won, the count is 7 wins on restrictor plate tracks – 5 of which coming in the last 3 years.

This team brings 7-straight top-10’s to Daytona and considering he’s due for a good restrictor plate finish (finished 42nd in the Daytona 500 and 40th at Talladega in May) Harvick was my top pick on Thursday and remains my top pick for the win tonight.

Dark Horse Pick

Paul Menard is a guy who manages to stay out of trouble at Daytona. He has completed 99.3% of the 2148 laps of his 12 starts at Daytona, leading 38 laps in the meantime. Daytona is second on his list of tracks with an average finish of 17.3 and that number comes with a 38th place finish averaged in those numbers (2009 Daytona 500). He’s been good at Daytona, might not be the BEST longshot pick this week with the Front Row Motorsports teams showing speed in both practice sessions, but working with Harvick in the draft will prove to be beneficial for this team tonight.

That’s all for this week, be sure to tune in on Thursday as Greg and I preview next week’s race at New Hampshire Motor Speedway.

So until next time, You Stay Classy NASCAR NATION!

July 6, 2013
Matty’s Picks 2013 – Vol. 14 Quaker State 400 – Kentucky Speedway – June 29, 2013

To the Bluegrass State we go this week for just the 3rd time in NASCAR Sprint Cup Series history. Kentucky was the race which took away one of the two races at Atlanta Motor Speedway back in 2011. Kentucky is a relatively new track, unlike some of the storied tracks like Martinsville Speedway, Darlington Raceway, Daytona, and Bristol Motor Speedway, really a baby on the list of tracks. It’s 13 years old now and has hosted NASCAR events since 2001, mainly Nationwide and Truck series events, but this is one of just a few weekends where the trucks, Nationwide, and Cup guys are at the same place all in the same weekend. The track is located smack dab in the middle of Louisville and Cincinnati – about an hour away from each, located just off of I-71 in Sparta, Kentucky.

As far as the track itself, it might be the cookie-cutter of all cookie cutters. With just 14 degrees of banking in the corners, it’s the flattest of any of the 1.5 mile tri-ovals on the schedule. Both 400-mile races have produced a total of 10 cautions in the two years of races, so it’s not my favorite stop on the schedule, but it is a night race which always add a certain element of excitement for any race.

I had the opportunity to cover the inaugural Quaker State 400 at Kentucky Speedway in 2011, and was impressed with everything but the parking situation at the track. It’s a fantastic facility and another one of Bruton Smith’s gems.

Sonoma Recap

I’m not sure how many folks had Martin Truex Jr. on their list of potential race winners last week at Sonoma, but what a shot in the arm that win was for Truex, the No. 56 team, and Michael Waltrip Racing as a whole. A 200+ race drought was snapped last week with Truex’s second career victory, and the win couldn’t come at a better time as we make the downturn towards Richmond in September. The win lifted Truex to 10th in points and with the Wild Card race heating up amongst guys like Brad Kesolowski, Kasey Kahne, Jeff Gordon, and Tony Stewart – 4 of the big hitters on the tour – the win really boosts Truex’s chances of making the Chase in a couple months.

As for my picks, Juan ran out of gas after racing in the top 5 all day, and Jamie McMurray suffered a flat tire on lap 74 of 110 and finished 25th…the story of my season so far.

Kentucky Picks

Winner Pick
One can not go to Kentucky Speedway without looking at Kyle Busch as the true front-runner for the win on Saturday night. It was a tough week for Kyle at Sonoma last week, and he certainly had a lot to say about it on Twitter following the race last Sunday. I pulled out the popcorn for the entertainment Sunday night as folks poked the bear without knowing we were headed to the place where Kyle has led over 45% of the laps ever run, leads the series in average running position at 3.6, has set a series-high fast laps at 92, and also leads the series in Driver Rating at an incredible 133.0. Kyle has won in every major stock car series at Kentucky Speedway including the Sprint Cup Series, NASCAR Nationwide Series, NASCAR Camping World Truck Series, and the ARCA series, and will roll off 4th tonight when the green flag drops. He was fast in both practices as expected, and will be the guy to watch later this evening.

Dark Horse Pick

On Thursday, I picked Joey Logano as my dark horse guy this week, and it’s a pick which looks even better after the cars have hit the track and the starting grid has been set. Logano will start 11th tonight at Kentucky, and was in the top 20 in both practice sessions earlier in the day on Friday. He’s a solid sleeper pick this week because of his three-straight NASCAR Nationwide Series Victories from 2008 to 2010, and has put himself in position for a solid finish by starting tonight’s Quaker State 400 just outside the Top-10.

That’s all for this week, so until we put the plates on for the 3rd time this season…..You Stay Classy NASCAR NATION!

June 29, 2013
Matty’s Picks 2013 – Vol. 10 FedEx 400 Benefiting Autism Speaks – Dover International Speedway – June 2, 2013

The Monster Mile is up next this season, and if Sunday’s race is anything like the previous twelve races this season, we’re in for a show. Sunday’s FedEx 400 Benefiting Autism Speaks also marks the midway point of the regular season for the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series and just one year ago, nine of the top-10 drivers in the points standings leaving this June race at The Monster Mile ended up in the field of twelve in the Chase for the Sprint Cup.

On the horizon this week at Dover, five-time champ Jimmie Johnson looks to unseat legends Bobby Allison and Richard Petty at the top of the all-time win list at Dover International Speedway. He is the defending race winner and scored his seventh win at the Monster Mile in Delaware’s capital city.

Sunday also marks the return of key personnel from the Penske camp at a time when defending series champ, Brad Kesolowski needs them the most.

Last Sunday’s Coca-Cola 600 marked Bad Brad’s first DNF since the 2012 Daytona 500, and sitting tenth in points with not a win to his name yet in 2013, this team needs to get moving to punch their ticket to the big dance at the end of the year. Crew chief Paul Wolfe and other members of Penske Racing will make their return to the pit box this weekend, following their suspension stemming from the April 13th race at Texas. It’s been only two points races since Wolfe was ousted by NASCAR, but in those two races, Kesolowski finished 32nd at Darlington and 36th last week at Charlotte. There couldn’t be a better time for Wolfe’s return and Brad has done his part so far this weekend for a solid finish, qualifying the Blue Deuce in 8th for tomorrow’s FedEx 400 Benefiting Autism Speaks.

I was off last week and with nothing to recap, we’ll roll on to my pick’s for Dover.

Dover Picks

Winner Pick
Had I written this column on Wednesday, it would have been tough to pass up Jimmie Johnson’s immaculate record at The Monster Mile, but it’s Saturday and Johnson hasn’t won a race at Dover after starting outside the top-10 since completing the season-sweep at Dover in the fall race in 2002. Jimmie is not my pick this week.

There is no other driver hotter than Matt Kenseth right now, and as a two-time Dover winner, there is nothing to shake a stick at about this team this weekend. He’s notched eight top-5 finishes in eight of his last ten starts at The Monster Mile, his win in 2011 included in that number. Considering the top four starting spots for tomorrow’s FedEx 400 Benefiting Autism Speaks are Toyotas, I think I’ve gone with the right manufacturer for the win tomorrow. Kenseth is also racing for Joe Gibbs Racing in today’s NASCAR Nationwide Series’ 5-Hour Energy 200, gaining valuable seat time at a track as difficult as any to master. This guy is hot and he’s returning to a place he likes and has won before.

Dark Horse Pick

I’m not sure if a guy with “Concrete Carl” as one of his many nicknames can be considered a Dark Horse, but he’s flown under the radar all season, despite sitting second in points. The current odds show Carl at 12 to 1, but I think those are fantastic odds given the fact he boasts the series’ best average finish (8.3) at Dover. He has been one of the best on these surfaces between the NASCAR Nationwide Series and NASCAR Sprint Cup series, and in the fall, Edwards finished fifth despite the horrific 2012 season he was having. Concrete Carl is a contender this week and he will roll off 18th tomorrow at The Monster Mile.

That’s all for this week, so until we head to the Tricky Triangle, you stay classy NASCAR NATION!

June 1, 2013
Matty’s Picks 2013 – Vol. 8 Darlington Raceway – Bojangles’ Southern 500 – May 11, 2013

Darlington Raceway needs no introduction this week. Its the 64th annual Bojangles’ Southern 500 and there’s a reason why the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series has continued to come back to the track Too Tough To Tame year after year. It’s NASCAR’s oldest paved superspeedway, and over the years has become one of my favorite stops on the series. There’s something about the history, the heritage, and the excitement about the racing at Darlington that keeps me glued to the broadcast and puts Darlington on my bucket list.

Talladega Recap

Last weekend’s chaos at Talladega left me in rough shape, but the good news for me is that nobody saw David Ragan soaring to Victory Lane either. Scoring an unlikely win on the last lap of last week’s Aaron’s 499 with help from his teammate David Gilliland, was a shot in the arm for both David Ragan, Front Row Motorsports, and all the under-funded teams in the sport. It was a major confidence booster in the garage for teams not normally in the spotlight, being that the entire race was dominated by the big guns like Matt Kenseth and Jimmie Johnson. It was a “David takes down Goliath” last week at Talladega, but don’t expect the same this week at Darlington.

As for my picks last week, I went with defending NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Champion, Brad Kesolowski to win last week. Bad Brad made it through the mayhem of each of the big wrecks, but unfortunately had no help for a charge to the front following the rain delay and wound up finishing 15th.

As for my Dark Horse, Danica Patrick, a late race accident on lap 182 ended her long day of drafting. She missed a big accident early and waited out the three-hour rain only to be caught up in a late race crash on the backstretch when several cars began crashing in front of her. The incident put her out of the race, finishing in 33rd.

Darlington Picks

Winner Pick
On Wednesday while previewing tonight’s Bojangles’ Southern 500 with Greg Depalma on the Prime Sports Network, I picked Kasey Kahne to win, before the cars even hit the track in South Carolina. It’s a pick I still like after Kahne showed decent speed in practice and qualified the No.5 Time Warner Cable Chevrolet in the fourth starting spot. He enters Saturday Night’s race coming off consecutive top 10’s at Darlington Raceway, leading laps in 3 of the last 4 at The Lady In Black. Flashback to 2011, Kahne dominated the Southern 500 in his No.4 Red Bull Toyota, leading a race-high 124 laps, but a late race incident involving oil dropped on the track, collected a slue of solid race cars including Kahne. NASCAR failed to throw a caution, despite many drivers reporting oil on the track, a call that was looked at as controversial in many drivers eyes. Kahne has completed all but one lap in his 10 races at Darlington, and he’s put himself in position to pick up his first win at the historic track through a solid qualifying run on Friday.

Dark Horse Pick
On Wednesday, I liked Ryan Newman’s chances at The Lady In Black, but throughout the weekend we haven’t seen much speed out of the No.39 Quicken Loans Chevrolet. I thought he was the guy to look at who has flown under the radar with solid finishes at Darlington, including 6 top 10’s in the last 8 races at Darlington. He traditionally has qualified very well in South Carolina, notching one pole and starting outside the top 12 just twice in 14 starts. He’s got some work to do if he’s to end up in Victory Lane, but needs a solid finish for not only his Chase hopes, but to keep Stewart-Haas racing on the radar as a major player in the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series.

That’s all for this week, so until we head to Charlotte and All-Star Weekend, You Stay Classy NASCAR NATION!

May 11, 2013
Matty’s Picks 2013 – Vol. Talladega Superspeedway – Aaron’s 499 – May 5, 2013

Well, we roll on to Alabama today in the Aaron’s 499 at Talladega Superspeedway. Everyone knows the history, the wrecks, and the success at Talladega so I will save my speech this week and roll on to last week’s recap and a quick craps shoot as to who will win this thing.

Richmond Recap

I picked Kyle Busch early on last week, and with Kyle showing so much speed throughout the practice sessions and qualifying the No. 18 M&Ms Toyota in the eighth starting spot, I was looking pretty good for a win. Busch battled a loose racing condition through the first quarter of the 400-lap race, but still managed to pull into the top five. With each pit stop, the M&Ms crew was able to make improvements and Kyle would take the lead just past the half way point. Busch remained in the top 10 until lap 325 when the No. 14 of Tony Stewart got loose, collecting Jimmie Johnson and eventually Kyle Busch in the process. The M&Ms crew would repair damage to the front end of the car, but it was not enough to put the No. 18 back in the top 10. Kyle brought his damaged racecar home in 24th.
As for my Dark Horse last week, I chose another Joe Gibbs racing car, but Matt Kenseth would not have been a Dark Horse last week because of the season he has been having so far this season. It was the No. 11 car, driven last week by Brian Vickers as Denny Hamlin was not cleared by doctors to make his comeback last week from the compression fracture injury in his spine. Again, going into Saturday Night’s race, the No. 11 FedEx Delivery Manager Toyota looked like a solid Dark Horse. The JGR Toyota was fast in all practice sessions, and would start the race on the outside of the front row. Though he ran in the top 10 for the majority of the first half of the race, but when trying to make the car faster around the midway point, the car did not respond to adjustments. Vickers struggled back in traffic, being shown outside the top 20 in the latter half of the race. An incident with 80 laps to go involving Kasey Kahne and Mark Martin would finish off Vickers chances of winning last week, and my hopes of bringing home a solid Dark Horse finish. Vickers finished in 35th.

Talladega Picks

Well, it’s more of a craps shoot this week as far as who will win the race later this afternoon….but I have a couple cars in mind who have history on their side today at the world’s fastest racetrack.
Winner Pick
In April of 2009, Brad Kesolowski pulled off one of the biggest upsets in NASCAR history to earn his first career NASCAR Sprint Cup Series victory in the Aaron’s 499 at Talladega Superspeedway. He pushed Carl Edwards towards the front from fifth with just two laps to go. Coming out of turn four with the checkered flag waiving, Kesolowski and Edwards were one and two. When Edwards came to the bottom of the tri-oval, in an effort to block the Finch Racing Chevy, driven by Kesolowski, the Michigan-Native stood his ground and eventually put Edwards into the outside catch fence. It was one of the more spectacular finishes in Talladega history, and even more meaningful because it was the start of Kesolowski’s breakout in the NASCAR Sprint Cup series. Since his first win in his first start at Talladega in April of 2009, Kesolowski has finished outside the top 10 just twice in 7 races, and is also the defending race-winner. He was fastest in Happy Hour on Friday and will start the Blue Deuce in the 11th starting spot. Kesolowski has earned the respect of fellow drivers through his solid finishes on the restrictor-plate tracks, and he will have help when he breaks out of line in the final laps this afternoon.
Dark Horse Pick
She’s not really a Dark Horse because of her success at Speedweeks at Daytona in February, but Danica Patrick is a massive underdog yet again this week. She became the first female to claim a NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Pole, the first female to lead a green-flag lap in NASCAR history, and the first female to lead the Daytona 500 all at the other restrictor-plate track in Florida earlier this season. If there are any tracks Danica is comfortable on, it’s the restrictor-plate tracks because of her career in the Indy Racing League. She’s used to the flat out pack-style drafting and is comfortable in the car on these types of tracks. My only fear this week with the No. 10 team is if she will have help on the final laps of today’s Aaron’s 499. We saw her make a move in the late stages of February’s Daytona 500, but no driver would come to her rescue when she stepped out of line. It’s a long shot for Danica today, but the restrictor-plate tracks are the best shot she has of visiting Victory Lane this season.
That’s all for this Sunday edition of Matty’s picks, so until we head to Darlington…You Stay Classy NASCAR NATION!

May 5, 2013
Matty’s Picks 2013 – Vol. 6 Richmond International Raceway – Toyota Owners 400 – April 27, 2013

It doesn’t get much better than short-track racing under the lights at one of NASCAR’s oldest tracks. Richmond International Raceway has been a part of the tour since Lee Petty won the first NASCAR Grand National Division race at then Atlantic Rural Exposition Fairgrounds back in 1953, and each year proves why it has occupied two spots on the series schedule since 1959. Chevrolet leads the series in wins at Richmond with 35 victories, followed closely by Ford with 28, but Toyota has won 7 of the last 8 races at the three-quarter mile oval in Virginia’s capital city.

The story of the week surrounds the team of Matt Kenseth as NASCAR passed down one of its stiffest penalties in history as it slapped the No. 20 Joe Gibbs Racing team with a 50 point penalty, a $200,000 fine, and suspended Crew Chief Jason Ratcliff for the next seven races. NASCAR took everything away from the Dollar General team but the trophy from their win last week at Kansas. The garage was buzzing on Friday at RIR with responses to the penalty coming from Kenseth, Ratcliff, and team-owner, Joe Gibbs.

Kenseth said the penalties passed down from NASCAR were “grossly unfair” and expressed his concern for Ratcliff and Gibbs’ chances of winning the owner’s championship due to the penalties, “To crush Joe Gibbs like that and say he can’t win an owner’s championship with the 20 this year, I just can’t wrap my arms around that,” Kenseth said. “It just blows me away. The same for Jason Ratcliff. I don’t feel bad for myself at all, but for Jason and Joe, I couldn’t feel any worse. There are no more reputable, hard-working, honest guys than them two. I feel really bad for them.”

Well, the penalties haven’t slowed the pace of the No. 20 team, as Kenseth claimed his 10th career pole in 481 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series races. It’s his second of the season, first at Richmond International Raceway, and fifth top-10 start of 2013.

Richmond Picks

Nothing to recap from last week as I had an off week, so on to my picks for tonight’s Toyota Owners 400.

Winner Pick
On Wednesday, I joined Greg DePalma on the Prime Sports Network to preview tonight’s race from RIR. My pick before the cars unloaded and the starting lineup was set was Kyle Busch. He was the favorite on Wednesday going into the weekend, and with his 8th starting position, remains the favorite going into the race tonight. Busch lead late in the race last night in the NASCAR Nationwide Series’ Toyotacare 250, but was passed with 10 laps to go by eventual race-winner Brad Kesolowski.

Looking back at Kyle Busch’s stats in the Sprint Cup Series at Richmond, he’s won the past four spring races at Richmond, has finished in the top 5 in 12 of his 16 starts at the .75 mile short track, and out of the 23 tracks the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series visits each year, Richmond is his best. Kyle is the guy to beat this week.

Dark Horse Pick
The stand-in driver for the No. 11 FedEx Toyota team is Brian Vickers again this week. He has done a tremendous job in keeping the Joe Gibbs Racing team afloat in the absence of Denny Hamlin. Vickers qualified the No. 11 Toyota outside the front row for tonight’s Toyota Owners 400 and has shown a ton of speed in both the practice sessions on Friday, 5th fastest in first practice and 3rd in Happy Hour. Though Vickers has struggled throughout his career on the short tracks, he has finished in the top-10 in three of his last four short track starts, including a top-5 at Bristol last August.

I like the job Vickers has done so far in the Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota, and with a front-row starting position tonight, he’s put himself in position for a solid finish.

That’s all for this week, so until we strap on the restrictor plates….You Stay Classy NASCAR NATION!

April 27, 2013
Matty’s Picks 2013 – Vol. 5 Texas Motor Speedway – NRA 500 – April 13, 2013

Turn on the lights and turn up the heat this week as the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series races under the lights for the first time this season. Texas Motor Speedway needs no introduction as it has produced some of the fastest speeds and exciting finishes we’ve seen over the past few seasons.

Remember back to last season, The Chase for the Sprint Cup was heating up between five-time champ, Jimmie Johnson and now defending champion, Brad Kesolowski. The fall race at Texas last year was firmly in the hands of the No. 48 team for the majority of the 335 laps run, but a late-race caution flag lined the two Championship contenders up side-by-side for a fantastic finish. The two collided with one another in the final laps, with Johnson emerging victorious from the awesome battle and Kesolowski landing in second.

The 1.5/2 mile intermediate tracks are the ones NASCAR circled when designing the new Gen-6 car. They wanted to design a race car that would tighten the delta we’ve seen on the intermediate tracks with the Gen-5 race car over the course of the past five or so seasons. So far this season, we’ve seen a record number of green flag passes for the lead at Las Vegas with 31, and matched the track record of 41 at Auto Club Speedway. Based on these two important stats, I’m going to make the statement that the designers of the Gen-6 car have done their job and improved the passing on these traditional “cookie-cutter” tracks. Saturday night will be no different. Watch for track-record speeds and passing throughout the field.

Martinsville Recap

I went with the defending champ last week, and it was the five-time champ who dominated the STP Gas Booster 500. Against my better judgment, I picked against the recent history at Martinsville Speedway, and it came back to bite me in the end. I went against the history of the past 21 races at the paper-clip, being dominated by three drivers, Jimmie Johnson being one of them. Ford also hadn’t visited Victory Lane (or should I say the front stretch backdrop) in over a decade as well. It was ultimately Johnson and the Chevy’s that dominated last week. Never bet against the trends. Kesolowski finished sixth.

I picked a Chevy for my dark horse pick last week, but I had no luck with Ryan Newman finishing 31st, as the Stewart-Haas camp continued their slow start last week at Martinsville.

Texas Picks

If you tuned into www.primesportsnetwork.com on Wednesday night, you heard Greg Dipalma and I preview Saturday Night’s NRA 500 from Texas Motor Speedway. There were a couple drivers I really liked because of where the odds opened up, Matt Kenseth at a 12 to 1 and Dale Earnhardt Jr. at 15 to 1. I made my picks on Wednesday evening based off historical finishes at TMS without the advantage of seeing any testing or practice speeds.

There was one trend that was clear across the board, starting up front at Texas is very important. We highlighted some drivers who have not traditionally qualified well at Texas, and their tallies in the win column at Texas reflected the importance of starting up front. Six of the last eight races at Texas Motor Speedway have been won from a starting spot inside the top-5.

Winner Pick

I liked my pick on Wednesday, and I’m sticking with him again today. Matt Kenseth really likes Texas Motor Speedway, probably because he enters Saturday with a top-5 in each of the last five races at TMS. He boasts the series best average finish (6.2) in the last ten races at TMS and won the first Gen-6 race on a 1.5-mile track when he snubbed Kasey Khane from the win in Las Vegas. Fast forward to Thursday’s test sessions at TMS and look at the 7 fastest 10 consecutive lap averages, and you’ll find Matt Kenseth. Flip to the 5th best consecutive lap average, and you’ll find his Joe Gibbs Racing teammate, Kyle Busch. Despite Jimmie Johnson being fastest in both test sessions yesterday as far as 10 lap averages are concerned, Toyota claimed 3 of the top 5 10 consecutive lap averages on the day.

Kenseth will be the 13th car on the track for qualifying later this evening and is my guy who will be there at the end this week.

Dark Horse Pick

I didn’t have a long shot pick on Wednesday, but since the cars have unloaded and been on track the past two days, one car has shown a ton of speed in testing. As I mentioned before, qualifying well might mean the difference between a win and a tenth place finish this week in Texas. The No.78 Furniture Row racing Chevy has been fast the past two days, winning the first test session and coming in runner-up in the second of the two test sessions yesterday. Kurt Busch followed up his season-high fourth place finish at Bristol with a top-5 at Auto Club Speedway, the other intermediate oval race this season. We’ve seen some speed out of this team so far this weekend, and Busch will look to shake the woes he had at Martinsville last week with a solid finish in the Lone Star State.

That’s all for this week, so until Kansas, you stay classy NASCAR NATION!

April 12, 2013
Matty’s Picks 2013 – Vol. 4 Martinsville Speedway – STP Gas Booster 500 – April 7, 2013

It has been a couple weeks since you have heard from me, and I am excited for my opportunity to spout off my thoughts before tomorrow’s STP Gas Booster 500. Martinsville Speedway is one of my favorite stops on the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series each year due to its storied history and true short-track persona. It is the only track left on the NASCAR circuit which was part of the original schedule back in 1948, and the .526 mi paper-clip needs no further introduction.

If you’ve been following SpeedwayMedia or myself on Twitter, you may have noticed I’ve taken my thoughts and picks to the online radio/podcast arena, joining Greg Dipalma of the Prime Sports Network each Wednesday evening to preview the upcoming week’s race. This past week, Greg and I had the privilege of speaking with Mike Smith, PR Director for Martinsville Speedway, who offered his insight on what it takes to put on a NASCAR Sprint Cup Series event at the storied short track in Southern Virginia. Somewhere around 80,000 Martinsville hot dogs will be consumed this weekend, and I thank Mike Smith for taking a break from his cooking duties to speak with us this week.

No recap this week so we’ll move right into my picks for tomorrow’s STP Gas Booster 500.

Winner Pick
A few important factors have made paring down the list of potential winners tomorrow at Martinsville Speedway. The first important statistic that has helped to set my fantasy roster and make some bold statements as to who will win the race tomorrow afternoon is, 93 of the 128 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series races at Martinsville Speedway have been won from a top-10 starting position. Furthermore, just 5 of the 128 races have been won from a starting spot outside the top-20. Add the two together, and 123 of the 128 races have been won from inside the top-20.

Now, it’s the track’s recent history that I am betting against this week. The past 20 races at Martinsville Speedway have been dominated by three drivers, Jimmie Johnson (7 total wins in past 20 races), Jeff Gordon (4 wins in past 20 races), and Denny Hamlin (4 wins in past 20 races). Also, Chevrolet has won all but 5 of the past 20 races (4 being won by Hamlin in his Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota and one by Rusty Wallace in 2004 for Dodge). The manufacturer missing in these talks is Ford, who has not visited Gatorade Victory Lane since Kurt Busch won from the 36th starting position, the deepest in the field that a race winner has started at Martinsville Speedway.

The driver I am going with this week finished 3rd at the other short-track race this year, and besides Watkins Glen and Sonoma, has been strongest on the short-tracks over his career. In six starts at Martinsville Speedway, Brad Kesolowski has just three top-10’s and has lead just ten laps at the paper-clip, but has yet to finish outside the top-20. He ranks fourth among active drivers – behind Jimmie Johnson, Jeff Gordon, and Denny Hamlin, and will start seventh tomorrow at Martinsville Speedway. Kesolowski is a short-track guy and will look to snap Ford’s 20-race winless streak in Southern Virginia tomorrow.

Dark Horse Pick
Ryan Newman is a driver who struggled earlier this season in finishing the race, but who has rebounded nicely since his 38th place finish at Las Vegas with solid finishes at both Bristol and Auto Club Speedway. He stole the win at Martinsville Speedway last season, and over the course of his career, has finished the best at short tracks over intermediate tracks, road courses, and restrictor plate tracks. In 22 races at the paper-clip, Newman has tallied a win, seven top fives, eleven top tens, and has started on the pole three times. Newman will roll off the grid in the tenth starting position tomorrow and looks for a solid finish tomorrow to improve his chances of making The Chase for the Sprint Cup this season.

That’s all for this week, be sure to tune into www.PrimeSportsNetwork.com on Wednesday as Greg and I preview next week’s race from Texas Motor Speedway!

Until next time, you stay classy NASCAR NATION!

April 6, 2013
Matty’s Picks 2013 – Vol. 3 Las Vegas Motor Speedway – Kobalt Tools 400 – March 10, 2013

We stay on the left coast again for the second straight week in the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series as the series makes first and only visit of the season to the 1.5-mile tri-oval in the desert. An aging race surface, a green racetrack, and the first real look at how the new Gen6 car will perform on a more traditional 1.5-mile track, we head into another weekend with many unknowns surrounding the outcome of the 267 lap stanza on Sunday.

With a rare rain-out of both practice and qualifying yesterday, teams are scrambling to parlay the Intel they gained from Thursday’s 6-hour test session and apply it to their setups for Sunday Afternoon’s 16th Annual Kobalt Tools 400.

Per the NASCAR Rule Book, the field for Sunday has been set according to last season’s Owner Points, meaning The Champ, Brad Kesolowski will share the front row with last year’s bridesmaid, Clint Bowyer. As we saw last week in Phoenix, with the increased amount of downforce the Gen6 car is producing, tire wear is becoming the top story in this young season, and with a green racetrack in the desert again this week, handling and saving your equipment might be the key in driving to Victory Lane on Sunday.

Phoenix Recap

Well, I published my column last week before Denny Hamlin was forced to change engines and start from the rear of the field in last Sunday’s Subway Fresh Fit 500. I really hoped for the best in not updating my column on Sunday morning, and it truly paid off as the guy I looked at to win last Sunday, was also sent to the rear of the field, and he did not fare as well as Hamlin did in working his way up through the field.

With Hamlin coming off the back last week, the combination of excellent pit strategy and quick pit stops were the key for the No. 11 FedEx Office team in their first top-five of the 2013 season. A three-wide pass on the white flag lap in the dogleg section of PIR vaulted the No. 11 team to a third place finish after battling a loose racecar for the majority of the day.

Hamlin spoke after his podium finish and was fined $25,000 by NASCAR for his comments about the new Gen6 racecar, and NASCAR has not released exactly what sparked the $25,000 slap, but the only negative comments Hamlin made appear to be comparing the Gen6 car to the Generation Five cars:

” We learned a lot. I don’t want to be the pessimist, but it did not race as good as our generation five cars. This is more like what the generation five was at the beginning. The teams hadn’t figured out how to get the aero balance right. Right now, you just run single-file and you cannot get around the guy in front of you. You would have placed me in 20th-place with 30 (laps) to go, I would have stayed there — I wouldn’t have moved up. It’s just one of those things where track position is everything.”

My dark horse pick fared quite a bit worse at the flat-track in the desert last week, despite winning each of the three practice sessions and after starting the race from the pole position. Michael Waltrip Racing’s Mark Martin was the car to beat going based off practice speeds and after taking the Coors Light Pole Award, but after an extra pit stop on lap 63 for a vibration on the right side of the No. 55 AAron’s Dream Machine Toyota, Martin had to first gain back the lap he lost on the stop, as well as pass 20+ cars on the lead lap to end up in Victory Lane. Luckily, the caution would fly just a few laps later, and Martin would climb his way back to the lead lap, but would fall short in the end following the wild conclusion of the Subway Fresh Fit 500. A 21st place finish is what I got out of my Dark Horse last week, not the finish I’m looking for.

Vegas Picks

Just one time a year we visit the 1.5-miler in the desert, and it’s probably a good thing we only make one trip to Sin City, both for the sake of the difficulty in handling drivers are experiencing this week and also for the sake of The Champ’s liver….

Winner Pick

It’s very difficult not to look at Jimmie Johnson this week, as his impressiveness in the first few races each season is what kick-starts the No. 48 Lowe’s/Kobalt Tools Chevrolet team. Johnson tops the list of active driver performances at Las Vegas Motor Speedway with four wins, five top fives, and six top tens in just eleven races at the 1.5-mile tri-oval. Historically speaking, Johnson has been a contender in each and every Intermediate Track race the past seven or so seasons, and the odds-makers have made Johnson the preliminary front-runner in giving him 5-1 odds at taking home the trophy tomorrow for his car sponsor, who like last week’s race winner, Carl Edwards, will also be driving for the race sponsor tomorrow afternoon. He had the second-best 10-lap average in Thursday’s test session at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, the second-best time by any Chevrolet, and the best run by any of the Hendrick Motorsports drivers. He’s starting inside the second row, so he doesn’t have far to go to get to the front.

Dark Horse Pick

Richard Childress Racing claimed two of the top-five spots in final NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Happy Hour this afternoon, and the fifth-fastest 10-lap average went to RCR’s Paul Menard. Las Vegas Motor Speedway happens to be Menard’s second-best track in the past 2 years, averaging a finish just inside the top-10 at 9.5. At Las Vegas’ twin track, Kansas Speedway, which hosts two NASCAR Sprint Cup Series races each year, Menard has boasted a finish inside the top 5 and the track happens to be his second-best track in his 10-year Sprint Cup Career. By definition, a long-shot is any driver with odds of winning of 20-1 or worse, and Menard currently sits at 100-1 to win the Kobalt Tools 400 on Sunday, so a Dark Horse is exactly what Paul Menard is for taking the home the trophy.

That’s all for this week, so until we roll on to the bull ring in the hills of Tennessee, you stay classy NASCAR NATION!

March 9, 2013