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Tag: Chase

  • The Final Word – Did Matt Kenseth’s 2003 title run ruin NASCAR?

    The Final Word – Did Matt Kenseth’s 2003 title run ruin NASCAR?

    Matt Kenseth ruined NASCAR. He did not mean to do it, and we did not know at the time that he did, but it would seem his single win 2003 championship changed everything. Maybe if his personality was more like a Busch, a Harvick, or a Stewart, who would answer such criticism with a simple “kiss my ass” it might have been different. It was also the season Ryan Newman won eight races, but was a distant sixth in the standings.

    Of course, the Chase was supposed to be the remedy. That was before we discovered that NASCAR had no interest in determining who was the best over the course of the season, but rather sought a gimmick to keep people watching to the end. A final four with winner take all, with wins being the determining factor, is now supposed to be the answer. This ignores the fact that a driver can still go winless, make the final four, and finish third at Homestead and win it all. So, the season crown could wind up being meaningless, no matter what legend might come out and parrot the company line.

    Maybe a three race playoff, featuring the three track configurations (short, long, and road) and only those 16 drivers (or whatever cut off line they determine) taking part might be a more legitimate solution. Then again, one driver could win the first two and then we are back to a meaningless season finale.

    Still, 2003’s result started the changes. What if we had a system at that time which rewarded wins, Top Fives, and Top Tens more? Might that have changed things? The new points system was a good start, so rather than reinvent the wheel let us start with that. I thought giving up 70 or 75 points for a win, extra for Top Fives and Top Tens might do the trick. I mean, close to 40 points between first and 11th should have altered the landscape somewhat, at least enough to close the gap back in 2003.

    Actually, it would not. Kenseth, who lost an engine and was dead last at Homestead that year, would have finished well ahead of Jimmie Johnson and Newman. Kenseth was just too consistent, consistently high that is, to be caught as this system would have rewarded the eventual champion for his 25 Top Tens that year. So, what if we only gave the steroid treatment for wins, and leave everything else the same?

    Just how many points should a win be worth? 65…70…75…more? In doing so, might we also be able to see at least one contender within 30 or so points from the leader going into the final race of the season? Hey, if it ticks all the boxes, including the “game seven” moment desired by Mr. France, so much the better, but with no gimmicks and no Chase.

    Here are what the standings would have looked like going into Homestead for the season finale based on those numbers for 2003, 2011, 2012, and 2013. Do any of them tickle your own fancy? Do any of them identify a champion you would recognize as the very best on that particular season?

    2003 Wins 65 pts 70 pts 75 pts
    Newman 8 1263 1303 1343
    Kenseth 1 1252 1257 1262
    Johnson 3 1214 1229 1244

    Awarding the winner a maximum 65 points, 2003 would have seen Ryan Newman entering Homestead with an 11 point lead over Matt Kenseth. Increase the winner’s total to 70, and Newman’s eight win season would have jumped him 46 points ahead. At 75, he would have had it already won, going in 81 points on top.

    2011 Wins 65 pts 70 pts 75 pts
    Edwards 1 1251 1256 1261
    Harvick 4 1231 1251 1271
    Stewart 4 1212 1232 1252

    In 2011, Tony Stewart beat Carl Edwards in the Chase by win totals (5-to-1). Had they awarded up to 65 points for a win, Edwards would have entered Homestead 20 points up on Kevin Harvick, with Stewart 39 behind. At 70, the gap narrows to just 5 points, with Smoke 24 in arrears, while at 75, Harvick is up by ten and Stewart within 19 of the leader. Stewart’s Homestead win could have given him the title over Edwards by 1, 6, or 11 points.

    2012 Wins 65 pts 70 pts 75 pts
    Keselowski 5 1315 1340 1365
    Johnson 5 1307 1332 1357

    2012 was claimed by Brad Keselowski via the Chase, but as both he and Johnson were tied in wins, Keselowski would have entered Homestead up by eight points regardless.

    2013 Wins 65 pts 70 pts 75 pts
    Johnson 6 1315 1345 1375
    Kenseth 7 1267 1302 1337

    That brings us to last season when Johnson went into Homestead with the advantage but with Kenseth having one more win to his credit. Award up to 65 points per win, and Johnson leads by 48 points. By 70, and the lead is cut to 43. Award the victor up to 75 points, and we have a 38 point gap.

    If wins mean almost everything, then as long as the challenger has a hope for the title with a win at Homestead, we should be satisfied. By awarding the winner 69 or 70 points for victory, the gap between first and second would be between 25 and 28 points, depending on race bonuses. In 2003, Kenseth would still have claimed the crown with a victory as long as Newman finished no better than 22nd. In 2011, Stewart would have won the title with a win, no matter what Edwards did that day. The same goes for Johnson in 2012 against Keselowski. Last season, a Kenseth win and a Johnson finish of no better than 18th would have given Matt his second championship.

    No gimmicks. No Chase. Sometimes game seven moments are not to be. Win 27 races, like Richard Petty did in 1967, and you just hand the sceptre to the King. No other result would have been acceptable.

    What do you think?

  • Sprint Media Tour Recap — Changes and the New Chase Format

    Sprint Media Tour Recap — Changes and the New Chase Format

    It has been a week since I headed for Charlotte and the 2014 edition of the Sprint Media Tour Presented by Charlotte Motor Speedway. I’ve waited until now to digest all of it and come away with an opinion of the events. In other words, as the closing song of Craig Ferguson’s Late Show says, what did we learn on last week’s show? You may be surprised.

    This year’s tour was divided up into manufacturers. There was a Ford day, a Toyota day, and two Chevrolet days. At each stop, something new was announced. For example, at the Richard Childress stop, we learned of a new oil sponsor—Lucas Oil and the hiring of some new engineers. At the Front Row Motorsports gala, it was that Eric McClure will have a ride for the Daytona 500 in their No. 35 car. Shockingly, neither Jack Roush nor Martin Truex, Jr., attended their sessions. Both were on vacation, but Truex showed up via Skype on the big screen. The Wood Brothers reported that they had four brand new cars for 2014, but without some sponsorship other than Quick Lane, they would only attempt 12 races this year. Brian Vickers was at the Michael Waltrip Racing show, looking fit and ready for the new season, having finally gotten his blood clot problem under control. None of that is earth shattering, but the big news happened on the last day and has been debated everywhere. My take on the big announcement may surprise you, but maybe it won’t.

    There is no need to rehash the new Chase format. It has been cussed and discussed on NASCAR Radio, in nearly everyone’s column, and on the street. Some like it and others do not. I don’t like it. I couldn’t figure out why until I sat down and suffered through the Super bowl tonight, and then it hit me.

    Regardless of how good the final teams are, you cannot guarantee the best will win. That’s not saying that the Denver Broncos are the better team, but everyone expected a tight finish, or as Brian France says, “a seventh game finish.” The Super Bowl didn’t and instead we saw a blowout. It took me back to the 2011 baseball playoffs. In that series, the St. Louis Cardinals go into the playoffs on a wild card. They had finished six games behind the division winners, but used the playoffs to gain the crown. A full brilliant season by the Texas Rangers didn’t get them a World Series Championship. Just three months later, my team (New York Giants) gained a championship the same way. The Giants were a mediocre 9-7 in the regular season, but the playoffs got Big Blue another championship. Such is the way stick and ball sports roll. I don’t think stock car racing should follow the lead of stick and ball sports. Being unique was what fascinated me about NASCAR back some forty years ago. The championship was based on a whole season and not just someone or some team who got hot toward the end. Unfortunately, that ended in 2004.

    Since the big announcement, I’ve talked to several fans, both old and new, and though a few support the winner take all four car rule, I find twice as many hate it. The main argument is that the “final four” would likely be the same teams who always win—Hendrick and Gibbs (who won 55% of the races in 2013 and 60% of the Chase races), and most likely the two teams would populate the final four. Many expressed a concern that Chevrolet and Toyota seem to be the only brands competitive week-in and week-out. In other words, this new gimmick will not bring old fans back or new fans heading for the turnstiles. NASCAR claims they have a fan group that tells them that more excitement was needed, and the new winning rule might actually bring back some excitement, but not if the same seven cars win most of the races and one of them is so superior that they dominate each race.

    Many times, in these pages, I have expressed the way it used to be. All that was important was who won on Sunday. The championship was an afterthought. I still remember when David Pearson won the 1969 championship, but I only was reminded of it after a Ford advertisement in a car magazine. Today, the sanctioning body, aided by the media, has built up the championship to make it the level of the World Series Championship and the Super Bowl win. There’s no turning back. It’s going to be that way for a long while.

    Hopefully, the new rules will do some good. Since winning is going to be important, maybe someone will push a little harder during the race. There will be no more “good points days.” Maybe the new rules will put a fire under some teams who, let’s face it, weren’t in the same league as Hendrick and Gibbs. There is hope here, but I do not see the fans swarming back to NASCAR anytime soon. I hope I’m wrong, but that’s the way I see it now.

  • If by chance the France proposal had come to pass…in 2013

    If by chance the France proposal had come to pass…in 2013

    A year or two ago, let us say that Brian France had a brainwave. He came up with a proposal to allow 16 drivers into the Chase, first determined by wins gathered up to and including Richmond. The rest would get an invite due to the points accumulated. Let him add another twist. Let him have the rank of contenders drop by four after three Chase events, another four after six, with four more gone just as they headed to Homestead. In the big finale, an artificially engineered four driver showdown for all the marbles would take place, also featuring 39 also-rans out there to keep them company.

    So, after the race in Richmond in 2013, they would have set the sweet 16, to steal yet another concept from another sport. A dozen would wind up getting a pass based on having won at least once up to that moment. Welcome David Ragan to the derby for his win at Talladega. Tony Stewart would limp in, though he would be gone after the third race of the Chase for obvious reasons.  Just like Clint Bowyer, not enough penalties could have kept Martin Truex Jr out, due to his win at Sonoma. The remaining four spots get in on points, which would mean no help needed by Jeff Gordon as he would join Dale Earnhardt Jr, Kurt Busch, and Bowyer..

    Three races down in the Chase, and four drivers would be eliminated. Stewart is officially gone, to be joined by Ragan, who in three races earned only 53 points more than the idle Smoke.  A lousy day at Loudon finished Kasey Kahne’s hopes, while Joey Logano started the Chase bad and that was all that was needed. Then, to keep us all on the edge of our seats, they evened up the points to put the final dozen on an equal footing.

    12 left, with four more about to go by the time they left Talladega. A bad day in Chicago was all that was needed to eliminate Ryan Newman while Truex had a tough time just finishing in the Top 20 in those initial Chase weeks. Chicago also meant the end of Kyle Busch’s hopes, as the second stage also would have spelled adios for Greg Biffle. For the eight that remain, the points are again evened out as they all start from scratch, season be damned.

    While Johnson would have cruised through the next segment with a win and a pair of Top Fives, Kurt Busch was just so-so, so he had to go. Jeff Gordon and Carl Edwards both had Texas disasters, while Bowyer was good at a time he needed to be great. 12 drivers and nine races down and it was down to NASCAR’s manufactured “game seven”…even though no other sport actually attempts to engineer such a thing. There is the Super Bowl, I guess, but I can’t help but notice that only the contenders ever hit the field on game day and most often the two teams are meeting for the first time that year. Still, I digress.

    So, off they would have gone to Homestead, just four still alive in the hunt for the paper title. Jimmie Johnson, Kevin Harvick, Dale Earnhardt Jr, and Matt Kenseth in a one race showdown. What a wonder for the ages it would have been, that is if the fans had bought into the nonsense.  All four were on the lead lap on the final day, and while in-race observer Denny Hamlin was out in front at the end, the third place Junior was putting on a furious charge in an attempt to catch the second place Kenseth on the track. He would come up just short. Matt would no doubt have been overjoyed to win his second title, while Johnson finished ninth in the one race spectacular. Despite an average finish of 5.1 over the final ten races, it just would have not been good enough under the new France system. Would it have been a good enough finish for you?

    While Matt celebrated and Johnson pondered what could have been, Dale Earnhardt rolled over in his grave. As for Richard Petty, he was just happy that the 1967 season was run under different rules. If it had not been, Bobby Allison’s sixth win that year in the Weaverville, North Carolina finale would have trumped the King’s 27 to claim the title that year. Petty finished second in the race, but even the best season in NASCAR history would have been reduced to a mere footnote.  Still, imagine the excitement and joy of the fans in watching that “game seven” spectacular. Imagine the legitimacy of the championship.

    Just imagine.

  • Proposed New Points System Attests to a Modernizing of NASCAR

    Proposed New Points System Attests to a Modernizing of NASCAR

    The sports world is much different today than it was 20 years ago. The events themselves haven’t changed much, but the culture surrounding sports has. Professional sports are no longer just about what happens on the playing field. All the behind-the-scenes work, people, and money involved have taken a substantial role in every sport.

    Along with maintaining those details; the sports’ governing bodies have to please fans. Fans are vital to a sport’s success.  Each sport does whatever it takes to expand the fan base. Whether it’s attracting the event to other sports fans or enticing regular people, bringing in more fans is something each sport needs to do in order to prosper. As fans’ taste changes constantly, sports have to do their job and make adjustments in order to be able to attract more fans. Sports concentrate more on bringing in fans than losing fans because they know once a person devotes their loyalty, they likely aren’t going away.

    Right now, NASCAR is in an important stage of the sport. They need to bring the sports’ ratings back up. Keeping things the same won’t do the trick. Changing things around in order to find the magical recipe that brings in attention is what NASCAR is currently working at.

    Nothing will improve by keeping the same ‘ole, same ‘ole. NASCAR needs to make adjustments in order to let the sport return to its prosperous days. Since NASCAR can’t revert back to all components of their glory days from the early 2000’s, they need to create new ways to make the sport thrive.

    The right path for doing that is by attracting the modern sports fan. That fan likes excitement, action, and speed. That type of fan can easily be attracted and they will come in flocks. By seeing the excitement advertised in racing, they will be curious enough to check the sport out. Thousands could do that which is exactly what NASCAR wants. How is NASCAR to do that, though? Implement a complete change to their top tier. Give the chance for thrilling action a better opportunity to present itself.

    Fans may not agree on their favorite driver or what is right for the sport, but they do agree on one topic. They want to see NASCAR stick around for a very long time. For that to happen, things need to change and NASCAR needs to create the excitement that other prosperous sports currently have.

    Many fans refuse to compare NASCAR to other professional sports. The common argument is that racing is different. Yes, it is different. We race cars, make pit stops, and have a long and enduring season. The commonality between NASCAR and other sports is the goal in which they shoot for. The ultimate goal is to create loyal fans, make those fans happy, and drive in new fans. At the very least, you can agree that is what NASCAR and other sports have in common.

    Fans are what keep sports going. They need fans to survive. Fans have devoted their passion to sports. They won’t just go away. Even with a radical change, fans won’t walk away from the sport. The sports’ governing bodies know that, so taking the risk of change is completely worth it to them.

    NASCAR knows fans aren’t going to stop watching due to a change in which they don’t agree with. Fans are addicted to the fast cars. It would be very difficult to end that addiction due to one disagreement they have with the sport. This is why NASCAR is comfortable with making the change in the points system.

    All they have to lose is maybe a few fans, but for the most part, they are in a position to gain a bigger following. A risk they find worth taking. And they will take it, no matter what a few fans say. Yes, NASCAR has reacted to fans in the past, but those circumstances were different. They had more to lose then like the sport’s credibility. Now, they are not in a position to lose that.

    The changes NASCAR is set to make are all in an attempt to create excitement. Doesn’t four drivers going into the season finale needing to finish better than each other sound incredibly intriguing? The unknown factor and knowing anything can happen is what ultimately will make the season finale much more like a championship deciding game that is seen in other sports, a game which is widely more popular than NASCAR’s current season finale.

    The title battle at Homestead-Miami between Jimmie Johnson and Matt Kenseth last season didn’t provide the ‘wow’ factor that is always seen in other sports’ season finales. The NFL has the Super Bowl which no matter what the details of the game are, generates a giant buzz. The NBA has the NBA Finals which put you on the edge of your seat during each quarter of every game. MLB’s World Series leaves you hanging each time the ball leaves the pitchers hand. NHL’s Stanley Cup Finals is the ultimate battle of hockey’s best each season. All of those events are thrilling no matter what the circumstances are.

    NASCAR’s season finale relies much more on the circumstances determined by the racing itself in the prior events to establish what kind of hype the final race has. 2013 didn’t quite have the buzz the 2011 Homestead-Miami race had. 2011 featured Tony Stewart and Carl Edwards going back and forth throughout the race. That created an atmosphere close to what other sports have in every season finale. Other sports have that every year, NASCAR hasn’t in two seasons.

    As much as it might be weird to have NASCAR attempt to create the ‘Game 7’ feeling, it’s what other sports do and they thrive. NASCAR desperately needs to keep up with those other sports to remain prominent. What they will be the last to do is make the conclusion of the season the most exciting part of the whole year. It may not seem like something that needs to be done, but watch the first season with the new system and then decide whether you liked that season finale better or the one under the old system.

    Eliminations in the Chase also attest to NASCAR attempting to generate the same excitement from other sports’ playoff systems. For example, the NBA playoffs feature three rounds before the championship series. Each round features the deciding game of the series which will advance one team and send one home. In NASCAR, the deciding race in their three “rounds” will be just as exciting. Drivers close to the cutoff line will put on a spectacular show in order to survive. Seeing drivers race their heart out in more races in the Chase, than just the finale, is NASCAR’s ultimate goal with eliminations.

    NASCAR’s new system is set to generate the most excitement by putting the emphasis on winning. Winning is what the modern day sports fan wants to see. Seeing who wins is much more appealing than seeing who stays consistent enough to take home the championship. The modern fan wants quick and immediate results. They don’t want to wait around to see what happens. They want to be able to watch a race and know by the end what the victory means for the winner. By just about guaranteeing the winner of a race a Chase birth under the new system, the fan NASCAR is trying to attract will be impressed. Fans will also be able to leave the track or turn the TV off after a race and know the implications that individual race had on the entire season. That is a quick answer and one modern fans will enjoy seeing.

    NASCAR does not want to throw out their current and loyal fans. All they want to do is increase the fan base. NASCAR appreciates their current following and wants to keep them around. By changing things around once in awhile, new enthusiasm is built. Current fans know they enjoy excitement and deep down, they would like to see more. NASCAR knows that and will be attempting to please fans with this newly found excitement.

    Traditional fans are the ones who mostly oppose the new changes. They have been around for awhile and like what NASCAR has going. They became a fan long ago when the world was a different place. Things change. Nothing can stay the same forever. The traditional fans don’t have the mindset of the modern fans. Modern fans discovered the sport more recently and hold a sense of the current sports culture. They know what sports are more about now. They can tell things aren’t the same as they were many years ago.

    Traditional fans have a hard time adjusting to what the new sports world is all about. It’s about fast-paced action and excitement. It wasn’t that way 20 years ago. Things have changed and it’s up to traditional fans to acknowledge that. By knowing the sports world is much different today, it is easier to understand where NASCAR is going with these drastic changes. These updates are necessary to keep the sport prominent and for its continued growth.

    Change is an interesting thing. Change can be good as well as bad. It may seem scary at first because an unknown is created and not knowing what the change will do is frightening. Watching change unfold can create greatness. NASCAR revolutionized the championship fight back in 2004 with the Chase. That change turned out to be something spectacular. No one knows what’s on the other end of this proposed modification. We could witness the greatest NASCAR season ever under the new system. We also could not, but its 50-50 either way because we just don’t know.

    NASCAR has reasoning behind this change. They have to stay on the up and up in the sports world. Falling behind will do them no good. If you want to see NASCAR around for a long time, this change is likely what is needed. This will be an uncomfortable adjustment, but overall, it’s a rather great one. This is potentially the alteration which sends NASCAR into another golden age. NASCAR wouldn’t implement it without knowing that it is a good move for the sport. Don’t bash the system before you give it a chance. You never know, you could be all for it by the end of the season

     

     

  • NOTES FROM THE NASCAR NATION: Major changes to the Chase could be coming soon

    NOTES FROM THE NASCAR NATION: Major changes to the Chase could be coming soon

    There has been a lot of speculation recently that indicates some highly significant and sweeping changes could be coming regarding the points format used for NASCAR’s Chase for the Sprint Cup championship.

    The first indication of these changes came right after the arrival of the new year and stemmed from comments made by NASCAR Chairman Brian France during an interview with the “Motor Racing Network.”

    At that time France indicated a general feeling of dissatisfaction with the current Sprint Cup championship’s point structure and said he felt there was a way to modify the system that would place greater importance on winning races to determine the champion.

    Needless to say, those comments set off a firestorm of speculation that said changes to the Chase format were forthcoming. That firestorm was greatly enhanced by a January 17th article in the “Charlotte Observer” that indicated the proposed changes could be even more sweeping than originally projected.

    The major bullet points for the rumored change are as follows:

    • The new format will expand from the current 12 teams to 16.
    • Winning races during the regular points season, races one through 26, will become a high priority regarding which drivers makes the Chase lineup.
    • Full time series drivers who win at least one race during the regular season schedule will be seeded first in the championship lineup.
    • In the event that the first 26 races does not produce 16 winners, then the remainder of the Chase lineup will be seeded based on driver’s points. It should be noted that this particular scenario is very possible. There were only 13 different winners during the first 26 races of the 2013 season.
    • Once the official Chase lineup is set, NASCAR will employ the use of a series of elimination rounds somewhat similar to the process used by college sports. At the conclusion of Chase races number three, six and nine, four drivers from each of those races will be officially eliminated from the post season championship run.
    • The points will be reset to an even amount for the remaining four drivers, prior to the tenth and final Chase event, which will be held at the Homestead-Miami Speedway on November 16th.
    • This final four man runoff will employ a winner take all format. The driver who accumulates the most points in the season finale will become the 2014 Sprint Cup champion.

    Regarding the status of these rumored changes, a January 17th press release, from NASCAR Vice President and Chief Communications Officer Brett Jewkes, read as follows:

    “NASCAR has begun the process of briefing key industry stakeholders on potential concepts to evolve its NASCAR Sprint Cup Series championship format. This dialogue is the final phase of a multi-year process that has included the review of extensive fan research, partner and industry feedback and other data-driven insights. NASCAR has no plans to comment further until the stakeholder discussions are complete. We hope to announce any potential changes for the 2014 season to our media and fans very soon.”

    There has been further speculation that says this announcement could comes as early as January 30th.

  • Will The Chase Be Expanded to 16 Teams?

    Will The Chase Be Expanded to 16 Teams?

    According to various sources, including the Charlotte Observer’s Jim Utter, NASCAR’s plan for the 2014 Chase is taking shape and it will have a new format. According to these sources, 16 teams would make the Chase with positions going to full-time participants who won a race during the season of 25 races. If there were not 16 teams with wins, the remaining positions would be based on the point finishers according to the standings at the end of the “regular season.”

    There has to be a catch, right? Well there is one. The lowest four teams in the standings after the points are reset, which has always been the case since the beginning of the Chase, will be eliminated after the third, sixth, and ninth races in the final 10 Chase races. This would leave four teams and drivers to fight it out in the final race at Homestead next November. The “Final Four” would have their points reset to make them all equal in the final race. Whoever scored the most points in the final race would be the champion.

    According to some sources, this might not be the final plan. Changes could still occur in the format, but it seems this is the direction NASCAR is headed. Details are expected to be announced at the annual Media Tour in Charlotte in about a week.

    This is a radical change in the consistency based points structure created by the late Bob Latford, 39 years ago. It would virtually assure that the champion would be a winner and not sneak into a championship through consistency. Details will soon be known.

  • The Near Infallible & Unstoppable Force That Is Jimmie Johnson & Team 48

    The Near Infallible & Unstoppable Force That Is Jimmie Johnson & Team 48

    In racing, there are three kinds of champions. The first one is obvious; it’s the driver who hoists the Cup at season’s end after they out-perform their adversaries on the track. Then there are the ones that were born champions but hold no such trophies. The ones of impeccable character who only speak when they have something say. They are humble, tenacious, self-motivated and are incapable of comprehending the words, “it can’t be done.” Then we have the racers that are both. Jimmie Johnson is among that elite contingent.

    Jimmie Johnson is now a six-time NASCAR Sprint Cup Series champion which is a feat accomplished only by Richard Petty and Dale Earnhardt until now. That team has gone into the final race of the season with a mathematical shot at winning the championship nearly every season since 2004 with the exception of 2011. Over the years, he’s battled and defeated great drivers such as Jeff Gordon, Matt Kenseth, Carl Edwards, Denny Hamlin, Kevin Harvick, and Mark Martin in his pursuit of six championships.

    Why Is The No.48 Team So Good?

    When you take one of the most talented drivers out there, put him in the best equipment there is and combine that with a genius like Chad Knaus, magical things are going to happen. This is the era of the No.48 and in my eyes; it’s the greatest race team to ever exist in the history of NASCAR. Rick Hendrick doesn’t need to give pep talks to his guys as motivation. Hendrick Motorsports employees know what is expected of them and they always deliver.

    Jimmie has the car control, the mental fortitude, the natural talent to wheel the fastest cars in the field to the max of their capabilities and most crucially, he thrives when the pressure is applied. Chad Knaus is an innovator that takes the fastest and most durable cars in the field and somehow, makes them go even faster. You can put their backs against a wall, throw as much adversity as you want their way and they will still find a way to emerge victorious. That is why this group is always at or near the top every single year. They are the complete package. There is no Achilles Heel.

    What Does Title No.6 Mean?

    When this team won a 5th straight, that was a remarkable accomplishment but there is something about winning a 6th that takes them to whole new level. Jimmie is plus two titles over any other driver in history besides Petty and Earnhardt who hold a coveted 7th. Less than a decade ago, he didn’t even have a single championship to his credit and to think that Jimmie Johnson is just one more stellar year away from matching those two immortals of stock car racing is nearly incomprehensible to me.  The No.48 team can certainly be beat, they are human believe it or not but take away the rear gear failure at Homestead in 2012, the wreck they had there in 2005 and we may be looking at an eight-time champion right now.

    Impact On NASCAR

    For NASCAR, Jimmie Johnson winning yet another championship is a double-edged sword. It’s great because Jimmie is a perfect representative for the sport. He is a family man, a class act, articulate, engages with the fans on social media and never ruffles any feathers. Now here’s why it’s a double-edged sword. Johnson’s dominance has led a lot of fans to greatly dislike him. (That’s the nice way of putting it) In fact, I read countless tweets from people saying that they were not going to watch the season finale just because he was most likely going to win the title.

    Some of his detractors have quit watching the sport altogether and then there are others who come up with eccentric theories in an attempt to deny the incontrovertible fact that he is one of best drivers of all-time. Last year, NASCAR’s champion was the highly outspoken and sometimes brash, Brad Keselowski. It’s obvious that someone stirring the pot all the time and giving interviews to SportsCenter while drunk is going to get more eyeballs turned our way compared to a driver such as 6-time (gotta get used to saying that sooner than later) who is never embroiled in any controversies.

    What The Future Holds

    Chad Knaus issued an ominous warning Sunday night when he said that the No.48 team isn’t even close to their full potential yet. Cue the audible gulp from the racing community. When will this dynasty finally come to an end? At seven? Maybe eight? Heck, could they even reach 10? I see no team, no driver that is capable of taking this team down for good. The thing that will permanently end the reign of Jimmie Johnson will most likely be something you can’t fight back against and that’s time. He’s 37 years old and considering how fit Jimmie is, he could have well over ten more years left in him although I don’t see 42 year old Chad Knaus sticking around that long. Keep in mind that he’s won six titles and sixty-six races in eight years when thinking about how many he’s got left behind the wheel.

    One day, Jimmie Johnson will be inducted into the NASCAR HOF and people will watch old videos of him in absolute awe of what he accomplished. He will be labeled a legend and revered by all. Fans will want to be edified about his career and wish they could have been there in person to witness it. He will be idolized, immortalized and no longer criticized. That day is not here yet though.

    We are witnessing history right now with Jimmie Johnson. You don’t have to like it but you better respect it.

  • Two Champions, Two Races, One Victor

    Two Champions, Two Races, One Victor

    NASCAR is gearing up for a duel in the desert with the penultimate event of the longest season in sports just a few days away. With 3rd place Kevin Harvick facing a 40 point deficit, this title bout has become a showdown between two proven champions and worthy adversaries. Jimmie Johnson is seeking a 6th title which would only further solidify his place among racing’s immortals while Matt Kenseth hopes to secure a second championship ten years after his first. The two went into Texas deadlocked and despite the now seven point advantage Jimmie Johnson holds, it’s nearly impossible to ascertain who will emerge victorious when the checkered flag falls in Miami.

    Phoenix International Raceway

    Jimmie Johnson vs. Matt Kenseth

    20 starts vs. 22 starts

    6.4 av. finish vs. 17.3 av. finish

    4 wins vs. 1 win

    13 T5’s vs. 5 T5’s

    16 T10s vs. 9 T10’s

    932 laps led vs. 212 laps led

    Homestead Miami Speedway 

    Jimmie Johnson vs. Matt Kenseth

    12 starts vs. 13 starts

    15.3 av. finish vs. 17.6 av. finish

    0 wins vs. 1 win

    4 T5’s vs. 3 T5’s

    7 T10’s vs.5 T10’s

    99 laps led vs. 305 laps led

    The stats say that Jimmie will most likely augment his points lead at Phoenix and that it could go either way at Homestead. As Matt Kenseth has proven on more than one occasion this year though, the stats mean very little in the whole scheme of things now that he’s with JGR. We went to Martinsville and most were ready to just hand 5-time the grandfather clock before the race even commenced but at the end of the day, Kenseth had shocked us all by retaking the points lead after out-performing Johnson in what has become his playground.  At Texas, the pendulum swung back in the 48’s favor and the gap between these future HOF’ers grew to seven points.

    To put it in perspective, Jimmie Johnson didn’t even have one championship to his credit the last time Kenseth won a title nor did the chase even exist so I guess you could say that JGR’s newest edition is starving for another Cup. The way this chase has gone, it seems that every time one of these titans of NASCAR outdoes one, the other steps up to the plate the following weekend evening the score. If that pattern persists, we may see a deadlock at the top of the standings going into the finale; a track the two seem evenly matched at based on previous races.

    I see one of two scenario’s unfolding in the penultimate event at PIR; either Jimmie Johnson extends his points lead by a few markers or Kenseth digs deep and washes away the small, but crucial separation between the two at the moment. Seven points may not seem like a lot (and it isn’t), but check out this stat regarding the 2013 chase…

    Chase Race #1: Matt Kenseth gains 8pts on Jimmie Johnson

    Chase Race #2: Matt Kenseth gains 7pts on Jimmie Johnson

    Chase Race #3: Jimmie Johnson gains 10pts on Matt Kenseth

    Chase Race #4: Jimmie Johnson gains 5pts on Matt Kenseth

    Chase Race #5: Matt Kenseth gains 1pt on Jimmie Johnson

    Chase Race #6: Jimmie Johnson gains 8pts on Matt Kenseth

    Chase Race #7: Matt Kenseth gains 4pts on Jimmie Johnson

    Chase Race #8: Jimmie Johnson gains 7pts on Matt Kenseth

    The largest points swing in this entire chase between Kenseth and Johnson was when Jimmie gained 10 points on Matt at Dover. In my honest opinion, if Matt loses anymore ground at Phoenix, he won’t be able to win the championship without Johnson being plagued by problems with the kind of results these guys have been laying down on a weekly basis. I mean they are making 6th place finishes look like bad days! It is imperative that Kenseth chips at least a couple points off of Jimmie’s lead heading into Homestead where fate will probably have the two stuck together the whole day so if he’s trailing by too much, a win may not even be enough to secure him the crown if his title rival is close by.

    This clash of the titans is sure to come down to the wire and I believe it will be just as epic and riveting as the duel between Stewart and Edwards back in 2011. These two have been performing at a level that everyone, including their own teammates can only dream of and I don’t see either one of these rock solid racers fumbling in the final two events. Jimmie Johnson and Matt Kenseth are interchangeable with their demeanor, their driving style and their raw talent behind the wheel of a race car. They can’t be rattled by mind games, they can’t force the other into a mistake, neither has an obvious weakness or Achilles Heel if you will. They are near infallible. I obviously can’t foretell a mechanical failure or blown tire but I don’t see this one coming down to a foolish mistake by one or the other but rather an on-track battle that ends with one prevailing by the slightest of margins in an enthralling dogfight for the coveted Sprint Cup championship.

     

    Additional notes:

    The stats say that Jimmie will most likely augment his points lead at Phoenix and that it could go either way at Homestead. The odds are certainly in Jimmie’s favor too as Bwin.com see him as their favorite for Sunday’s race. As Matt Kenseth has proven on more than one occasion this year though, the stats mean very little in the whole scheme of things now that he’s with JGR. We went to Martinsville and most were ready to just hand 5-time the grandfather clock before the race even commenced but at the end of the day, Kenseth had shocked us all by retaking the points lead after out-performing Johnson in what has become his playground. At Texas, the pendulum swung back in the 48′s favor and the gap between these future HOF’ers grew to seven points.

  • Hot 20 over the Chase six – Past 10 matters little to Johnson, as it is all about the 6 since Richmond and the 4 to come

    Hot 20 over the Chase six – Past 10 matters little to Johnson, as it is all about the 6 since Richmond and the 4 to come

    Usually, one gets a general perspective on how a driver has been performing recently by taking a look at his past ten efforts. Ten, a nice round number that just so happens to also be the exact number of races in the Chase. You would think, barring adjustments for pre-Chase bonuses, it might give you an idea how things are going for those chasing a championship. You would think.

    That was before Jimmie Johnson sandbagged the final four pre-Chase events.  In those races, Johnson picked up a whopping 33 points. That is the same as he got last week finishing 13th at Talladega. Matt Kenseth, in those same four races, earned 148 points. Then they leveled the playing field. However, before anyone moans how unfair the Chase is to the season’s best, it actually has penalized Johnson and benefited Kenseth.  Remember, before the re-jig, Kenseth was in fifth place, 35 points behind Carl Edwards and 34 in arrears of Johnson, who was still second despite his pre-Chase problems. If not for the Chase, the standings would have Johnson leading Harvick by 33, with Kenseth third 41 back. So, the right guy is leading the way, albeit by 4 Chase points.

    As for being hot or not with four races to go in the season, it comes down to room for growth. As we replace the results from Michigan, Bristol, Atlanta, and Richmond with those coming from Martinsville, Fort Worth, Phoenix, and Homestead, Kenseth can better his total by no more than 44 points. Johnson can better his by 159.

    What that does, however, is make the hot 20 over the past ten races rather meaningless, with Kenseth presently 108 points better than the 15th ranked Johnson. Compress it down to the six Chase races to date and it becomes clear who indeed leads the way.  The ten race average will again become meaningful, but not before Homestead. Thanks a bunch, Jimmie.

    Here is a look at our hottest 20 drivers over the course of the Chase…

     

    Driver

    Wins

    T-5

    T-10

    Points

    Rank

    1

    Jimmie Johnson

    1

    4

    5

    242

    1

    2

    Matt Kenseth

    2

    3

    4

    235

    2

    3

    Kevin Harvick

    1

    2

    4

    222

    3

    4

    Jeff Gordon

    0

    2

    4

    220

    5

    5

    Kyle Busch

    0

    5

    5

    216

    4

    6

    Dale Earnhardt, Jr.

    0

    2

    4

    202

    6

    7

    Jamie McMurray

    1

    2

    2

    198

    14

    8

    Greg Biffle

    0

    1

    2

    198

    7

    9

    Clint Bowyer

    0

    0

    3

    197

    8

    10

    Kurt Busch

    0

    2

    2

    193

    9

    11

    Ryan Newman

    0

    0

    4

    182

    11

    12

    Carl Edwards

    0

    1

    3

    180

    10

    13

    Jeff Burton

    0

    0

    1

    176

    20

    14

    Joey Logano

    0

    2

    2

    176

    12

    15

    Martin Truex, Jr.

    0

    0

    2

    173

    17

    16

    Ricky Stenhouse, Jr.

    0

    1

    2

    170

    19

    17

    Brad Keselowski

    1

    1

    2

    169

    15

    18

    Paul Menard

    0

    1

    2

    167

    16

    19

    Aric Almirola

    0

    0

    1

    155

    18

    20

    Kasey Kahne

    0

    1

    1

    153

    13
  • The Final Word – Talladega may have been smokin’, but expect Johnson to smoke the field at Martinsville

    The Final Word – Talladega may have been smokin’, but expect Johnson to smoke the field at Martinsville

    We waited with anticipation for the action, and Talladega once again delivered. Once again, we watched the cars (and trucks for those watching on Saturday) go flying around inches apart in aircraft formation, in wonder that they could pull this off lap after lap without it all going up in smoke and torn sheet metal. In the end, they could not avoid the unavoidable.

    Dale Earnhardt Jr was pondering his final lap move to get by leader Jamie McMurray when the third running Austin Dillon got spun, then rear ended into the sky in what he described as “a cool roller coaster ride.” That allowed Ole Dimples to keep Junior behind him when the caution came out to claim his first win in more than three years.

    If that was not wild enough for you, Saturday saw Matt Crafton solidify his strangle hold in the Camping World series while pushing team mate Johnny Sauter to victory. Sauter crossed the line all by his lonesome as our top eight became a top five which became Mr. Sauter doing a solo by the time they all quit wrecking coming to the line. What was left of Crafton’s truck backed across the line in ninth, leaving him an entire race and a bit ahead of Ty Dillon in their standings.

    As for the Cup boys, neither Jimmie Johnson or Matt Kenseth finished in the Top Ten. Yet, by finishing seven spots ahead of his rival (13th vs 20th) and by leading the most laps, Johnson earned enough to vault ahead to take over by four points going into Martinsville. Their company got slightly closer, but by finishing fifth the best Kyle Busch could do is tie Kevin Harvick for third in the standings, both still 26 points away. They remain close should disaster hit the leaders, but until such time disaster strikes both will remain simply interested observers.

    Rating Talladega – 9/10 – The action kept you on the edge of your seats, drivers could move from the back to the front, and you even had your dose of carnage. What else could you ask for?

    So, the track on steroids is now behind us as we return to “normal” racing. With his seven career wins at Martinsville, Jeff Gordon might look good but for two small facts. One, he trails Johnson by 34 points. Second, Jimmie has won eight times himself at this venue.

    Five Time won there in the spring, and he won there last fall. His worst finish was on his first attempt in 2002, when he came home 35th. Since then, his worst finish is 12th, to go with an 11th, to go with 16 Top Fives, 20 Top Tens, in 23 Martinsville starts. As for Kenseth, he goes in 0 for 27, with just eight Top Tens in his career.

    Game four of the World Series goes Sunday night as St. Louis hosts Boston. That could wind up a closer contest than what we might see out of Virginia. It is not over, but I think somebody just knocked on the Fat Lady’s dressing room door. Enjoy the week, for it appears the odds favor Johnson enjoying his Sunday afternoon.