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  • My Chase Predictions With Five Races Remaining

    My Chase Predictions With Five Races Remaining

    The cross flags are out for the 2013 Chase and this battle is far from over. We have two very volatile races coming up on the schedule in the form of the monstrous Talladega Superspeedway and the half mile paperclip better known as Martinsville. Two champions lead the way with three formidable opponents within striking distance of them. Everyone from 6th on back has lost touch with the top group as the clock winds down on the 2013 season. A plate race, a short track, a high banked mile and a half, a flat track in the middle of the desert and of course Homestead make up the final five week sprint for the Cup.

    If you look at the championship standings, it’s a five man breakaway at the front with Kenseth and Johnson showing that they are going to be the ones everyone is hunting in the upcoming races. They are champions who rarely make mistakes and both display a fastidious demeanor even in the face of great adversity. Kevin Harvick trails by 29pts and not only can he handle controversy well but he sometimes seeks it out for the heck of it. Kevin’s Achilles Heel in this title bout may only be his equipment. RCR is fully capable of winning multiple races and finishing well but they are not capable of matching or exceeding the level of performance that has allowed the top two some breathing room.

    Then there is Jeff Gordon. He has the tenacity to win, the equipment to win and certainly the talent so why isn’t he, well, winning? That’s a very good question and it’s difficult to ascertain a definitive answer. He’s been solid the last eight races with only one finish worse than 8th; a 15th at New Hampshire after a pit road mishap cost him the lead, all his track position and potentially even a victory. There’s something missing in the No.24 camp that’s not allowing them to bust through that glass ceiling and perform at the level of his teammate and prodigy, Jimmie Johnson. Jeff’s also been plagued by a problem this year that can’t simply be fixed by an adjustment…it is an annoying and intangible force called bad luck. The next race on the calendar happens to be Talladega; a place where luck is the most crucial element of the whole race.

    In 5th sits Kyle Busch. At 28 years old, this naturally gifted racer is seeking his first Sprint Cup but there is a major obstacle standing in his way. The four drivers in front of him have something he seems to lack; the ability to cope with adversity and persevere through it. Case and point…Kansas. That track absolutely hates Kyle and he went into that race with that mindset. He destroyed his primary car in practice and on the first lap of the race; he spun out but can’t blame him for that one. Later in the race, Montoya helped him around and once again, not his fault. Busch was getting very aggravated though and understandably so but he allowed his emotions to get the best of him on a restart twelve laps later. He made a very imprudent decision about of frustration and cut down on Carl Edwards in a three wide situation and just like that, any chance of salvaging his day was over. He’s gotten better over the years but he still has a little way to go before he has the attitude and personality that makes someone championship capable. I don’t mean to pick on Rowdy but it’s incontrovertible that the way he handles all on-track misfortunes is going to make or break his title hopes…who knows, maybe he’ll surprise me in the final five races.

    The next two races are intriguing for multiple reasons. One of which is the obvious fact that they are characteristically unpredictable and chaotic event. Secondly, these two wild card events will most likely shake up the standings quite a bit. Matt Kenseth has been amazing on the plate tracks recently while The Paperclip has caused him many problems. The four drivers stalking him have good to spectacular records at Marty and all have won in the past at Talladega. These next two events are going to be incredibly important and will undeniably build the foundation for the 2013 championship fight. Once these 750 miles are complete, I think we will have ourselves a three-man race with three titans of the sport leading the pack in the form of former champions Matt Kenseth, Jimmie Johnson and the guy that some will argue isn’t even supposed to be here, Jeff Gordon. Who will come away victorious when it’s all said and done? Let’s just say I think we might be calling a certain someone “6-time” on November 17th.

     

  • The Final Word – Kansas leaves us with just two contenders…or does it?

    The Final Word – Kansas leaves us with just two contenders…or does it?

    Sometimes I like surprises. You tune in a race hoping to be entertained, but not always expecting it. Kansas turned out to be that kind of race.

    Not everyone enjoys surprises. Danica Patrick, I am sure, did not expect to win last Sunday, but she probably had hopes of lasting more than a lap. Kyle Busch has rarely done well at Kansas, but he was hoping. He took some slings and arrows throughout, at least until he got spun to tear the front end off his car to put an end to his day early. He then slipped down to fifth in points behind race winner Kevin Harvick and the third place Jeff Gordon.

    Harvick’s third win of the season, and 22nd of his career, moved him to within 25 points of Matt Kenseth. Kenseth got a pit penalty early that dropped him from first to 30th at the time, only to recover to wrap the day up in 11th, just five spots behind Jimmie Johnson to retain a 3 point advantage.  Kurt Busch was second best on the day, but he sits 47 out, leaving Kenseth and Johnson in a two way fight, barring bad things going their way over the next six events.

    No surprise that Chasers Joey Logano, Carl Edwards, and Dale Earnhardt Jr finished in the top ten last weekend. It also should come as no surprise to see that matters little until the two leaders falter. Ryan Newman  got a surprise when he got clipped to pretty much skin his ride, leaving him 35th, a spot behind Rowdy. The junior Busch is 35 back, Newman is 38 behind even him. Say goodnight, Irene.

    Rating Kansas – 9/10 – Some races need the assistance of an announce team to keep us entertained. Some are entertaining on their own, and the ESPN trio were more than good enough to keep folks watching this time out. The track was slick and treacherous, providing more than a few  unexpected surprises.

    Traditionally, Charlotte and Talladega tend to be rather entertaining and those are our next two stops on the tour. Jimmie Johnson has six previous victories in North Carolina and is tied for second among active drivers with the best average finish.  If I were a betting man, I would not be surprised to see Five Time taking over the Chase standings when they are done this Saturday night, but I would also bet Mr. Kenseth to pick up a Top Ten to remain close.

    Jeff Gordon could win. He has five at Charlotte. Kasey Kahne has four, and could do well. Carl Edwards has yet to be victorious there, but he seems to have decent finishes. Still, until the top two slip, it all does not mean that much.  That is, unless Harvick repeats his spring performance and wins another this weekend.  That could cause us to rethink things when they venture to Alabama, a place where surprises are totally expected. In the meantime, enjoy the week.

  • Don’t Call This a Three-Man Race Just Yet

    Don’t Call This a Three-Man Race Just Yet

    Matt Kenseth, Kyle Busch and Jimmie Johnson seem unstoppable at the moment but no matter how fast they are and how dominate they can be, there will always be forces outside of their control that could halt their crusade for the Cup in an instant. These three are far from immune to bad luck and to count out 4th on back right now would be imprudent. It’s incontrovertible that it’s their chase to lose but to completely discount the chances of some of those behind them isn’t a smart idea just yet. It would obviously take a mechanical issue, a blown tire or a wreck to stop the top three but with how solid and consistent some of the driver’s chasing them are, they would be launched right back into the battle should fate decide to be so kind.

    Martinsville and Talladega still loom and until we get past those two races, I’m going to hold my tongue on eliminating anyone still within 50 points of the leader. The next race on the schedule is Kansas which is statistically one of Kyle Busch’s worst tracks. When we raced there earlier this year, Busch’s day ended after a vicious crash with Joey Logano. In fact, he’s crashed out of the last two Kansas events and in twelve starts, the highest finishing position he could ever manage was a 7th back in 2006. As for his teammate, the only weak spot I see left on the schedule for Kenseth is Martinsville; a track he’s never won at in 27 starts.

    Despite the fact that Kyle rarely has a good showing at Kansas and Matt is less than spectacular at Martinsville, that won’t be enough to take control of this chase away from them if they have rough days. I haven’t mentioned Jimmie Johnson yet because there really isn’t a track that he isn’t great at except for Homestead but five consecutive years of just needing to finish to win the title could be partially to blame for that. In reality, the only thing that will stop these three are problems that they can’t predict or counter. Johnson would have been the champion last year if it weren’t for a blown tire at Phoenix followed up by rear gear issues at Homestead. 5-time was at that mercy of both unfortunate circumstances and in the end, it cost him a 6th Sprint Cup.

    At Talladega, you can give up 30+ points quicker than you can think about it. Just look back at 2012 when Tony Stewart entered turn three on the final lap with the win in hand and ended up with a DNF and a 22nd place finish. On the flip side of that, Jeff Gordon went into the final corner outside the top 15 and ended up 2nd so to say that 4th on back have no chance with Dega still to come is ignorant. Talladega doesn’t necessarily have to be the game-changer either. You can blow a tire or have an engine failure just about anywhere. The possibility of bringing more bodies back into the fight at the paperclip, aka Martinsville are very high as well.

    If these three do indeed stumble, who will be the beneficiary? I see four drivers that aren’t performing anywhere close to the level of the three leaders but are consistent enough to capitalize should bad luck plague the guys at the top. They are Kevin Harvick, Jeff Gordon, Clint Bowyer and Carl Edwards. Yes, there is an obvious dichotomy between the performance level of these two groups of drivers but it’s like the tortoise and the hare….sometimes slow and steady wins the race. Before I go any further, I think we can discount Carl who now faces a 65pt deficit and sits back in 11th after an engine failure at Dover….something out of his control. He would need to go on an incredible run that I don’t see Roush capable of doing right now as well as hoping that a lot of the people in front of him have trouble.

    Lets first take a look at the most talked about driver as of late and for all the wrong reasons, Clint Bowyer! The 2012 runner-up is 8th in points, 51 back of the leaders and would have been the regular season champion had he not partaken in the Richmond shenanigans. He would have been the points leader with no wins simply because he was quietly consistent. He does need to pick it up if he wants to have an outside chance of getting back into this fight because finishes of 9th, 17th and 10th are okay but with the caliber of driver’s he’s chasing, he’ll keep losing ground on them every single race until he’s too far behind to catch back up. He needs more top 5’s and wins in order to augment his chances at this championship.

    Jeff Gordon…the 13th seed that some people say doesn’t belong in the chase in the first place. Jeff is certainly making the most of this incredible opportunity given to him by NASCAR. Right now, he is tied for 4th place and is within 39 points of the championship leader. When we think of Gordon lately, we think of all the bad luck that has haunted him but his recent results prove that he can make a run at this title should something go awry with the three men everyone is chasing. In the last six races, he has five top seven finishes and the other result is still a respectable 15th which could have been a win if 4-time didn’t make a mistake on pit road. Jeff’s also put his car out front and led multiple laps in each of the last five events so don’t underestimate this future Hall of Famer and his ability to win it all in 2013.

    Now we go to Kevin Harvick, “The Closer,” “Mr. Where Did He Come From?” Both of these nicknames are well deserved as Harvick is famous for showing up out of nowhere to be in contention at the end of races and he’s also got an uncanny way of doing that when the fight for the championship comes down to the wire. Kevin is able to fly under the radar for the most part and more importantly, keep his nose out of trouble. In 2013, he only has two DNF’s and they both came at plate tracks; places where trouble finds you no matter where you try to hide. He’s shown this year that his team is fully capable of winning races and even when they don’t bring home the trophy, this Daytona 500 champion always does a stellar job of bringing home the most points possible which is crucial if you want to win the championship. In the last four years, he’s finished inside the top five in points three times and was always on the heels of the title contenders waiting for them to stumble. If those top three do falter, you can bet that Kevin Harvick will be one of, if not the first person to capitalize on their misfortunes.

    Like I said before, this chase is their’s to lose in reference to the top three. No one has shown the speed that they have showcased in 2013 and without bad luck, I highly doubt that any driver can catch them. If fate is not in their favor though, look for drivers such as Harvick and Gordon to be right there and ready to pounce. Until we get past the two wild card races left on the schedule, you shouldn’t rule out anyone still within reasonable striking distance of the top. You can try, but you can’t truly ascertain who the champion will be with seven races remaining no matter how blistering fast those top three are. I hate to sound cliche but remember, it’s never over until it’s over.

  • The Final Word – Dover is over, now off to Kansas where Kyle’s dreams go to die

    The Final Word – Dover is over, now off to Kansas where Kyle’s dreams go to die

    Dover in a nutshell? Well, Jimmie won, Matt did not, and Kyle had to settle for a mere Top Five. What has not changed is that the trio remain the only relevant drivers as they head to Kansas for Sunday’s fourth round of the Chase.

    Johnson made it a record eight wins at that track in just 24 starts in Delaware. By claiming his fifth of the season, and 65th of his career, the five-time former champ is just 8 points behind Kenseth, who finished 7th at Dover. Busch was fifth last Sunday and is a dozen points off the pace. Jeff Gordon and Kevin Harvick are next, 39 points away. So, until each and every one of the three leaders cough and sputter to somewhere beyond a Top Ten, at least, the rest of them remain just members of the supporting cast.

    Dale Earnhardt Jr started from the pole and finished just behind Johnson. A win would have meant more to him than a great points day, as he sits 57 back in the waiting room. Most of the Chasers did well, taking all Top Ten spots, while Kasey Kahne (13th), Kurt Busch (21st after a loose wheel green flag stop), and Carl Edwards (35th after a broken wheel hub) were the outsiders.

    As NASCAR no longer releases attendance figures, we are left guessing as to what those big bare patches in the grandstands meant in way of numbers. Considering Dover is a track situated within a hundred miles of Philadelphia, Baltimore, and Washington, somebody does not give a damn. A bunch of somebodies. Maybe stellar television coverage might entice them out to take a look at the real deal.

    Rating Dover – 5.5/10 – Too bad, as the visuals of this track, with the dive down the hill into the corners before swooping up on the other side, can be rather breathtaking. I did enjoy watching Race Day, but unfortunately none of the SPEED announcers would later appear on the ESPN broadcast. Good reporting from the pits, but the main crew were, well, the pits. Same old, same old.

    After 31-years, ESPN fired Marty Reid for mistaking the white flag for the checkered flag, and for one second declaring Ryan Blaney the Nationwide winner at Kentucky a lap early. Considering it did not detract in the least from the broadcast, that Blaney was leading by a large margin, or considering the amateur hour that is ESPN’s Cup coverage, you would have figured he might have got a bit of slack from the clowns in the suits. Then again, they might have done him a favor. Reid’s replacement? That would be Allan Bestwick. Good grief.

    Kansas Speedway is next on the schedule. Matt Kenseth won the last two run there and has been in the Top Ten in each of his past six attempts.

    Kansas Speedway, where Jimmie Johnson has a pair, including the fall of 2011. Where he has six Top Fives in 14 attempts, along with 10 Top Tens, and leads all active drivers with an average finish of 7.6.

    Kansas Speedway, where Kyle Busch sucks. Sorry, but two Top Tens in a dozen starts does not cut it. Seven times he has failed to crack even the Top Twenty. This is where his Chase hopes go to die, unless this is the year he avoids his Chase jinx.

    Congratulations to my mother-in-law, who turns 80 years old today. She will not be part of the broadcast of this race. To be fair, Fran doesn’t know a damn thing about NASCAR, but she would be a hell of a lot more entertaining than what we will hear this Sunday. Maybe she could fill in for Marty. Enjoy the week!

  • Matt Kenseth Wins at New Hampshire

    Matt Kenseth Wins at New Hampshire

    Matt Kenseth is the man to beat in the 2013; there is no doubt about that. He has now won both chase races with his teammate, Kyle Busch finishing 2nd just like Chicagoland last weekend. This is his 7th win of the season and the 31st of his career. Matt started 9th and wasn’t looked at as a favorite to win the race and wasn’t a factor until after the halfway point. He’s never gone to victory lane at New Hampshire until now and it just so happened to be his 500th career start as well.

    The race kicked off with Ryan Newman on pole but he would quickly be overtaken by a hard-charging Kasey Kahne. Kasey led until the first caution of the day flew courtesy of Josh Wise going for a spin in turn 4. On the restart, Earnhardt-Ganassi Racing teammates Juan Pablo Montoya and Jamie McMurray made contact sending the No.1 spinning. Jamie kept it off the wall though and the car was fine until rookie Kevin Swindell ran into the back of him. McMurray rebounded and finished a solid 5th with a damaged rear end.

    The next incident involved Bobby Labonte and David Gilliland on the front stretch. Labonte’s car was destroyed while Gilliland suffered some front end damage during the crash. Martin Truex Jr. led a bunch of laps before Jeff Gordon took control of the event. A rare pit road mistake by the 4-time champ ruined his race as he brought home a disappointing 15th place finish.

    Late in the race, Kasey Kahne got loose underneath Brian Vickers and smacked the inside wall. He was very upset and didn’t have anything to say when he left the infield care center. Dale Earnhardt Jr. had a fantastic restart with 30 to go and rocketed up to 2nd but he gave it all back within a few laps. It came down to a duel between JGR teammates Matt Kenseth and Kyle Busch with the 2003 NSCS champion prevailing as Kyle desperately tried to get to him. Track position was key today and when you didn’t have it, you didn’t stand a chance.

    The race featured eleven different leaders, seven cautions and nineteen lead changes. 28 cars finished on the lead lap and five failed to finish. Kenseth, (Kyle) Busch and Johnson have separated themselves from the rest of the chase field and are certainly living up to all the hype surrounding their chase chances. Matt has a 14pt lead over teammate Kyle and Jimmie Johnson faces a 18pt deficit. There’s a noticeable gap back to 4th place Carl Edwards who sits 36pts back. 10th on back are a full race’s worth of points behind the leader and Kasey Kahne is now last in the chase; 71pts back of Kenseth.

    RACE RESULTS

    1.) Matt Kenseth #20

    2.) Kyle Busch #18

    3.) Greg Biffle #16

    4.) Jimmie Johnson #48

    5.) Jamie McMurray #1

    6.) Dale Earnhardt Jr. #88

    7.) Brian Vickers #55

    8.) Jeff Burton #31

    9.) Carl Edwards #99

    10.) Matin Truex Jr. #56

    11.) Brad Keselowski #2

    12.) Denny Hamlin #11

    13.) Kurt Busch #78

    14.) Joey Logano #22

    15.) Jeff Gordon #24

    16.) Ryan Newman #39

    17.) Clint Bowyer #15

    18.) Marcos Ambrose #9

    19.) Juan Pablo Montoya #42

    20.) Kevin Harvick #29

    21.) Aric Almirola #43

    22.) Paul Menard #27

    23.) Mark Martin #55

    24.) Ricky Stenhouse Jr. #17

    25.) Casey Mears #13

    26.) David Reutimann #83

    27.) Danica Patrick #10

    28.) Travis Kvapil #93

    29.) David Ragan #34

    30.) Michael McDowell #51

    31.) Dave Blaney #7

    32.) Josh Wise #35

    33.) JJ Yeley #36

    34.) Landon Cassill #40

    35.) Joe Nemechek #87

    36.) Timmy Hill #32

    37.) Kasey Kahne #5

    38.) Kevin Swindell #30

    39.) David Gilliland #38

    40.) Bobby Labonte #47

    41.) Tony Raines #33

    42.) Johnny Sauter #98

    43.) Scott Riggs #95

    – Richard Petty is the only other driver besides Kenseth to win in his 500th start

    – 4 of Matt’s 7 victories this season have all come at tracks that he had not won at until 2013

    – Kenseth is the 12th different driver to win in the last 12 New Hampshire races

    – This is the third time a chase driver has won the first two chase races…Biffle did it in 2008 & Stewart in 2011

  • Ryan Newman Snags Sylvania 300 Pole at New Hampshire Motor Speedway!

    Ryan Newman Snags Sylvania 300 Pole at New Hampshire Motor Speedway!

    Flat-track ace Ryan Newman stole the show in Cup qualifying with a blistering lap of 27.904 seconds….a new track record! Kasey Kahne will accompany Ryan on the front row with another pair of Chevy’s taking up row 2 with Jeff Gordon and Kurt Busch. Martin Truex Jr. was the highest qualifying non-chaser in 5th and Carl Edwards has the worst starting spot among chasers in 26th.

    Ryan Newman now has 51 NASCAR Sprint Cup poles; seven of which have come at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. He’s won here three times here and a fourth win is definitely a possibility Sunday (or Monday pending Mother Nature’s plans…). Ryan is well known for his ability to muscle a car around flat tracks like Loudon, Indianapolis, Martinsville and Phoenix. In fact, his last four Cup victories dating back to 2010 have all come at tracks with little-to-no banking.

    Chasers Starting Position

    Ryan Newman (1st)

    Kasey Kahne (2nd)

    Jeff Gordon (3rd)

    Kurt Busch (4th)

    Joey Logano (6th)

    Kevin Harvick (8th)

    Matt Kenseth (9th)

    Greg Biffle (10th)

    Jimmie Johnson (11th)

    Kyle Busch (12th)

    Clint Bowyer (16th)

    Dale Earnhardt Jr. (17th)

    Carl Edwards (26th)

    In qualifying, there was one major incident and that involved Josh Wise who was attempting to make his 4th career start at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. It appears he broke a right front shock coming out of turn four which sent him barreling into the outside wall. He emerged from the car alright but his Ford Fusion wasn’t so lucky; he’ll start last and in a back-up car.

    Brian Vickers wanted to focus on his efforts in the NASCAR Nationwide Series today so veteran racer Kenny Wallace got the opportunity to qualify the Aaron’s Dream Machine; he clocked in 29th but Brian will have to start at the rear of the field Sunday. He started 13th earlier this year when he won this race. Michael McDowell will be piloting the No.51 this weekend, Bobby Labonte is back in the No.47 and Kevin Swindell starts 33rd in his NSCS debut for Swan Racing. Scroll down to see the complete starting lineup for the 17th Annual Sylvania 300!

    1.) Ryan Newman

    2.) Kasey Kahne

    3.) Jeff Gordon

    4.) Kurt Busch

    5.) Martin Truex Jr.

    6.) Joey Logano

    7.) Paul Menard

    8.) Kevin Harvick

    9.) Matt Kenseth

    10.) Greg Biffle

    11.) Jimmie Johnson

    12.) Kyle Busch

    13.) Aric Almirola

    14.) Denny Hamlin

    15.) Juan Pablo Montoya

    16.) Clint Bowyer

    17.) Dale Earnhardt Jr.

    18.) Mark Martin

    19.) David Ragan

    20.) Brad Keselowski

    21.) Danica Patrick

    22.) Marcos Ambrose

    23.) Jamie McMurray

    24.) David Gilliland

    25.) Jeff Burton

    26.) Carl Edwards

    27.) Michael McDowell

    28.) Bobby Labonte

    29.) Kenny Wallace

    30.) Travis Kvapil

    31.) Ricky Stenhouse Jr.

    32.) Landon Cassill

    33.) Kevin Swindell

    34.) Casey Mears

    35.) David Reutimann

    36.) Joe Nemechek

    37.) JJ Yeley

    38.) Dave Blaney

    39.) Tony Rains

    40.) Scott Riggs

    41.) Johnny Sauter

    42.) Timmy Hill

    43.) Josh Wise

  • History Says That Title Hopes May Be Over For Earnhardt & Logano

    History Says That Title Hopes May Be Over For Earnhardt & Logano

    Joey Logano and Dale Earnhardt Jr. were both having respectable runs at Chicagoland until their races went up in smoke…literally. Engine failures ended their days prematurely and the pair brought home disappointing results of 35th and 37th in the chase opener. The rain delay that forced NASCAR to finish at night definitely had a deleterious effect on the engines which may have consequently ended the dreams of two championship hopefuls very early in this chase…the nose damage to the No.88 may have been the reason for Dale’s motor giving up though. Whatever the reason, the fact is that these two are now 52 and 53 points back of the leader which is a margin that will certainly be difficult to make up. Can it be done? Of course it can; especially with Talladega on the schedule but history says that they can’t do it.

    Last Place In Points After Chase Race #1

    2012: Jeff Gordon was 47pts out and went on to finish 10th in the standings

    2011: Denny Hamlin was 41pts out and went on to finish 9th in the standings

    2010: Clint Bowyer went on to finish 10th in the standings with the old points system

    2009: Kasey Kahne went on to finish 10th in the standings

    2008: Matt Kenseth went on to finish 11th in the standings

    2007: Kurt Busch went on to finish 7th in the standings

    2006: Kyle Busch went on to finish 10th in the standings (10 Driver Chase Field)

    2005: Kurt Busch went on to finish 10th in the standings

    2004: Jeremy Mayfield went on to finish 10th in the standings

    If the pattern continues, these two will most likely finish 9th or worse in points this year. The deficit they now face is more than a race’s worth of points but if they can be spot on the rest of the season while others use up their mulligans; they can definitely work their way back into contention. Unfortunately, I don’t see Earnhardt or Logano being able to put together nine consecutive perfect races although a large contingent of the NASCAR fan base, aka JR Nation would argue otherwise.

    Eventual Champion’s Points Position After Chase Race #1

    2004: 1st

    2005: 1st

    2006: 9th

    2007: 1st

    2008: 1st

    2009: 2nd

    2010: 6th

    2011: 2nd

    2012: 1st

    History also tells us that Matt Kenseth or Kyle Busch will most likely come away with the championship this year. Only twice in the chase’s nine year history has the eventual champion left the first race worse than 2nd in points. On both occasions, it was 5-time champ Jimmie Johnson. That 9th place in ’06 really stands and it was only a ten person chase at that time so how did Jimmie come back to win the title after that? He had five consecutive top two finishes at the end of the year; that’s how. With six races to go; he was still back in 8th spot. It would take an incredible run like the one Johnson had to put yourself back into contention for the championship after a dismal start to the chase.

    We used to talk about mulligans in the chase and how everyone has one that they can use. That’s no longer the case. With how competitive the Sprint Cup Series has become, you have to be perfect with no mistakes in every single race from Chicagoland all the way to Homestead. In 2011, Carl Edwards finished 2nd in the final three races of the year, led laps in eight of the ten chase races, put together seven top five’s, nine top 10’s and his worst finish in those ten weeks was 11th but it still wasn’t enough to win the championship!

    I think this year’s chase is going to be the most competitive one ever. I feel that there are about ten drivers with a legitimate shot at the title but Kenseth, Kyle Busch and Johnson are the obvious favorites. Those three also dominated the regular season but when we left Richmond; it was Carl Edwards leading the points so it’s anyone’s guess who will hoist the Cup in November. I believe that this chase will be about survival and winning will be a necessity to keep your title hopes alive. It will come down to the final race, the final laps and maybe even the last corner of the last lap.

  • My 2013 NASCAR Sprint Cup Championship Predictions

    My 2013 NASCAR Sprint Cup Championship Predictions

    Once we get past all the chaos and controversy surrounding Richmond; it becomes apparent that we still have a championship battle to talk about! Thirteen…yes, thirteen racers will battle tooth and nail for the coveted Sprint Cup trophy and they have ten races to get it done. This chase lacks Tony Stewart, Denny Hamlin and reigning champion Brad Keselowski but it still features some of NASCAR’s heavyweights. Four champions, six Daytona 500 winners and eight teams make up the 2013 chase field. No one has shown immunity to bad luck this season; not even 5-time champion Jimmie Johnson and I could certainly see this coming down to three or five man race at Homestead, much like what we saw in 2004. It’s going to be a great battle!

    1.) Matt Kenseth – 5 Wins & 2003 NSCS Champion

    Matt Kenseth has been known to quietly click away solid finishes race after race and have sub-par efforts in qualifying seeing that the “go fast for two lap thing” has never really been Matt’s forte. All that changed when he joined Joe Gibbs Racing this year. Matt has made his presence known and has asserted himself as one of the guys you have to go through if you want to win the championship. It’s almost like Roush-Fenway was holding him back. The Achilles Heel of this team may be the lingering TRD engine issues although they have gotten it under control for the most part. Matt is a top five and top ten machine which is why he’s finished 8th or higher in the standings in nine of the last eleven years. He has proven that he’s fully capable of being a title threat and I’ll be very surprised if he’s not a contender.

    2.) Jimmie Johnson – 4 Wins & 5-time NSCS Champion (’06, ’07, ’08, ’09, ’10)

    The untouchable No.48 team has been vulnerable this year. Their immunity to bad luck has ceased and their rivals are excited to take them on. A recurring thing you heard at Chase Media Day was that drivers thought they can beat Jimmie and they said that with a big grin on their face. This is the guy everybody compares themselves with. If you can beat him, then you definitely have a shot at it! Don’t fool yourself into believing that this rash of bad luck has enervated this team. They have endured their fair share of bad luck in 2013 but it was while they were running up front and for the win so don’t think for a second that they are under performing this year. They just aren’t quite as lucky. If fate was kinder, Johnson could be starting the chase with eight or nine wins. As for momentum going into the chase; Jimmie Johnson doesn’t need momentum. He becomes a winning machine that can do no wrong when the playoffs start. Only time will tell if the this group becomes that indestructible winning machine that all their competitors fear or if the bad luck that has plagued the No.48 carries over into the post-season. One thing for certain is that you can never count out Jimmie Johnson and that elite No.48 team.

    3.) Kyle Busch – 4 Wins & Best Points Finish of 5th (2007)

    Rowdy Busch. Some love him, many hate him but no one can deny the fact that he’s a heck of a wheel man. Kyle has never fared too well in the chase and last year, he missed out on the post-season by 1pt but went on to score enough points in the ten race stretch that would have given him a 3rd place finish in the championship. The chase is primarily made up of large, high speed banked ovals which bodes well for Busch and his teammate, Matt Kenseth. JGR has excelled at those venues this year with six of their combined nine wins coming at those kind of tracks. Kyle has always had issues handling adversity and it will be interesting to see if he falls apart and makes imprudent decisions should things get tempestuous for him at some point in this chase. I believe 2013 will be the best chase result of Kyle’s career.

    4.) Kevin Harvick – 2 Wins & Best Points Finish of 3rd (’10 & ’11)

    Kevin Harvick has once again made his way into the chase without many people noticing. “The Closer” not only comes out of nowhere at the end of races but he also has an uncanny way of making his way into the top five in points at the end of the season on multiple occasions without anyone realizing it.  I don’t see a championship for Kevin this year but I wouldn’t put it past him. This “lame duck” wants to deliver Richard Childress his first Cup title since 1994 and he’s got one last chance to get it done.

    5.) Carl Edwards – 2 Wins & Best Points Finish of 2nd (’08 & ’11)

    He’s tied for 2nd, he’s finished 2nd and he’s tied for 1st….guess what comes next? I believe it’s only a matter of time before Cousin Carl, as Kenny Schrader would call him, hoists the trophy in Miami at the end of the season. Carl is one of those drivers who is a champion waiting in the wings. It will come with time. His consistency is what won him the unofficial title of regular season champion and his consistency also helped him stay neck-and-neck with Tony Stewart in 2011. Despite the two wins, Carl hasn’t shown that he can contend for wins on a regular basis but should the other drivers use up their mulligans while he keeps clicking away top 10’s and top 5’s, he may very well find himself in the middle of the title fight.

    6.) Joey Logano – 1 Win & Best Points Finish of 16th (2010)

    Penske Racing got one driver in the chase this year…and it wasn’t Brad Keselowski. Joey Logano has truly impressed me this year with his tenacity and the way he and this No.22 camp have handled adversity. Joey has won the pole for the first chase race and he seems to have found his niche in the form of large, high banked ovals. Lucky for him, that’s 50% of the chase races. He will win at least one race in the chase in my opinion and I see him as a dark horse. You wouldn’t normally look at Logano as  title threat seeing that he’s never gotten a top 15 points finish but he could surprise a few people. His inexperience in this kind of situation may be what hurts him in the end though.

    7.) Greg Biffle – 1 Win & Best Points Finish of 2nd (2005)

    I doubt Greg Biffle can win the championship this year. He has spent the majority of his season around 8th-10th in points and I don’t expect that to change in the chase. He only has three top five finishes in the first 26 races and ten top 10’s. Those are the lowest numbers of anyone in the top 13 in points right now. The Fords seem very strong at Chicagoland so I wouldn’t be surprised to see him win one of the 1.5 milers but other than that, I really don’t expect Greg to make much noise in the chase this year.

    8.) Clint Bowyer – 0 Wins & Best Points Finish of 2nd (2012)

    Would I be exaggerating if I said this guy has a lot of attention on him going into Chicagoland? I thought not. Clint Bowyer and his race team have been the headline on every major news outlet this week for all the wrong reasons. He was grilled by multiple ESPN reporters, booed by fans at NASCAR Contenders LIVE, harassed by thousands of incensed people on Twitter and even criticized by his fellow competitors. His integrity has been called into question after a spin that many believe to be deliberate and his intentions with seven laps to go were incontrovertible to most but Bowyer denies it. Clint says that all this negative attention has him determined more than ever to win it all. The usually loquacious Clint is ready to just put that helmet on and go to work. He has spent most of 2013 near the top of the standings despite failing to reach victory lane. I don’t think all this drama will affect him while he’s racing. I wouldn’t bet against it hurting his team though. Distractions are never a good thing in sports. I would say Clint can be a contender just like he was in 2012 but some disgruntled drivers that didn’t take too kindly to what went down may make sure that a championship for the No.15 doesn’t happen this year. It will be interesting to see how Bowyer is treated by other drivers once we get to racing at Chicagoland..

    9.) Dale Earnhardt Jr. – 0 Wins & Best Points Finish of 3rd (2003)

    Dale Jr. has consistency but he isn’t up there mixing it up for victories every week like his teammate Jimmie Johnson and even Kasey Kahne are. They need to take it up a notch if they want to hold their own against Johnson, Kenseth and Kyle Busch in this chase. If they can’t do that, then I don’t see Jr. getting anything higher than 5th or 6th this year.

    10.) Kurt Busch – 0 Wins & 2004 NSCS Champion

    Here we have the first “single car” team to ever make the chase. Despite their strong technical alliance with Richard Childress Racing, they are still considered a single car operation. Do not make the foolish mistake of underestimating Kurt Busch or this well funding race team though. The tenacity and raw talent of this proven champion is undeniable and he can most certainly win the championship this year….if he had a better pit crew. When the pressure’s on, the No.78 crew almost always drops the ball and costs Kurt valuable spots. NASCAR is a team sport and if you have a pit crew that isn’t getting the job done, it doesn’t matter if you have a Dale Earnhardt caliber guy wheeling the No.48 with Junior Johnson on top of the pit box…you still won’t win. They have two crew guys so hopefully, he doesn’t encounter as many costly issues on pit road. If his pit crew can get it together, Kurt can be a serious threat for the championship before he departs for Stewart-Haas Racing at the end of the year.

    11.) Kasey Kahne – 2 Wins & Best Points Finish of 4th (2012)

    Kasey Kahne was my pick to win the title back in March and I wouldn’t be surprised if he proved me right. If fate was kinder (and if Kasey was more aggressive), he could have at least five wins right now. He has four runner-up finishes this year; three of which came down to half a second or less. He also crashed while leading Michigan, Darlington and while going three wide for the lead with two laps to go at the July Daytona race. Kasey’s kindness on track though may pay dividends during the chase when he’s racing around guys not in the running that remember his courtesy while racing them earlier in the year. On the flip side, it may also tempt drivers his battling to use him up not thinking there will be any repercussions. In my eyes, Kasey can win the championship this year if the stars align.

    12.) Ryan Newman – 1 Win & Best Points Finish of 6th (’02, ’03 & ’05)

    Ryan wasn’t a chaser until Monday night which seemed crazy until Jeff Gordon had to go and outdo him by being added to the chase as the 13th seed less than 48 hours before the first chase race! Ryan is motivated and motivation always seems to have an uncanny way of giving a driver a few extra horsepower. Can he hold his own against Busch, Johnson and Kenseth? I doubt it but be assured that the Rocket Man will go all out and leave nothing on the table before his release from Stewart-Haas Racing. Ryan has been fired and replaced because Gene Haas believes Kurt is a better driver. He’s also been called an ogre, had an airborne car land on top of him, been cheated out of his 18th career win, knocked out of the chase before being put back in two days later and even watched his good friend and current owner break his leg in a Sprint Car crash….yeah; it’s been an interesting year to be Ryan Newman to say the least. He will make some noise in this chase probably by winning at one of the flat tracks that he;s always so good at and I see him having his best points finish since 2005.

     13.) Jeff Gordon – O Wins & 4-time NSCS Champion (’95, ’97, ’98, ’01)

    Well, who saw this coming? You aren’t supposed to be here! One of unluckiest guys in the garage got a once in a life time break Friday when he was added to the chase as a 13th seed. It would be an auspicious time for Jeff to go buy a lottery ticket right now…although he obviously doesn’t need it. I am hoping that he somehow goes on a tear in the chase, becomes a contender and that we go to Homestead with Kansas Clint and 4-time 1-2 in points. In reality though, I don’t see Jeff making much of an impact on the 2013 chase at all. He is fully capable of being a 5-time champion talent wise but all the pieces team and luck wise just aren’t there. This was a nice gesture by NASCAR but Jeff’s team is not championship caliber in 2013….I think he will spend the last 10 races in the back half of the chase field.

    My Three Championship Picks

    Kasey Kahne: Why Kasey? I have liked what I’ve seen out of him this year with the speed he’s shown on both 1.5 milers and short tracks. I also like the chemistry he has with long time crew chief Kenny Francis. When it comes to the best driver/crew chief combos in the garage; these two are near the top of the list. Kasey is also able to keep a level head in difficult situations and get all he can out of the car without risking his whole race; necessities for a championship hopeful. Bad luck and JGR drivers running him over has been his only noticeable weakness in 2013.

    Kurt Busch: You want to talk about determination? You want to talk about someone that will drive their guts out and finish 10 spots higher than the car he’s driving should? That would be Kurt Busch. That No.78 has been blistering fast at every kind of track this year; they have no bad track. Kurt has completely changed as a person and for the better. No longer does he act churlish towards the media, fans and his team when things get rough. In fact, he’s become one of the most optimistic people out there when things go awry. If Furniture Row wasn’t trying to resolve their pit crew issues, then I’d be counting Kurt out but they’ve already replaced a front tire changer and tire carrier. If Kurt has a solid pit crew, he can win it all.

    Jimmie Johnson: Do I really need to say why? You can never count out 5-time and like I said earlier, his win column could be in the double digits this year if it weren’t for bad luck. Like always, he is fast everywhere and his team is solid as a rock. Performing at a super-human level during the chase is something embedded deep within the DNA of everyone on this race team. Chad Knaus is very fastidious and will make sure everything that he can possibly control is in his control. Jimmie doesn’t need momentum to be on his side. He doesn’t even need a good start to the chase. Nothing phases the 5-time champ and that’s why he is one of my three favorites to win the 2013 NASCAR Sprint Cup championship?

    Feel free to post your picks below or to comment on mine!

  • Jeff Gordon Added To Chase In Unprecedented Move by NASCAR!

    Jeff Gordon Added To Chase In Unprecedented Move by NASCAR!

    As if we thought the fallout from Richmond couldn’t get any more bizarre…NASCAR has stunned us with another unprecedented move. They have expanded the chase field to thirteen cars and we now welcome Jeff Gordon to the lineup. The drivers that make up the 2013 chase has changed twice in the last six days in a wild and unprecedented turn of events that has made NASCAR the top story in sports all around the country. Today, Jeff Gordon was added to the chase as a 13th seed while Front Row Motorsports and Penske Racing were put on probation for the remainder of the year for attempting to manipulate the chase outcome. The two drivers who were initially put out of the chase due to MWR’s shenanigans are now back in. It was the morally correct decision but was it actually the right call?

    Announcement

    MIKE HELTON:  As you’re well aware, we’ve been looking at a lot of video, audio and timing and scoring information and other data from the Richmond race.  We reacted earlier this week and then based on further due diligence, what we’re determined to do — what we’ve decided is in addition to what other actions we’ve taken, we’re going to put Front Row Motorsports and Penske Racing both on probation for the balance of the year for actions detrimental.

    And in addition we are organizing a mandatory meeting with drivers and owners and crew chiefs for tomorrow to hopefully address and make more clearly the path going forward as it applies to the rules of racing and the ethical part of it. Basically what I’m saying is that we’ve decided that we will put Front Row and Penske Racing on probation for the balance of the season for actions detrimental.

    BRIAN FRANCE:  In addition to that, we’ve decided that due to the totality of the events that were outside of Jeff Gordon’s — his issues, we’re going to add a 13th position to the field, and Jeff Gordon will qualify for the championship this year, the Sprint Cup Championship.

    We believe in looking at all of it that there were too many things that altered the event and gave an unfair disadvantage to Jeff and his team, who would have qualified, and I have the authority to do that.  We are going to do that.  It is an unprecedented and extraordinary thing, but it’s also an unprecedented and extraordinary set of circumstances that unfolded in multiple different ways on Saturday night, and we believe this was the right outcome to protect the integrity, which is our number one goal of NASCAR.

    Mike mentioned a moment ago, we will be clarifying in a significant way the rules of racing and the rules of the road going forward, and we will be looking forward to that meeting and addressing the media after that, after we meet with the teams to clarify that with certainly with the media and our fan base.

    NASCAR contradicted what they said Monday night about the “ripple effect” and how they can’t help Gordon by adding Jeff to the chase today because it was the fair thing to do in their eyes. I think Brian France had something to do with that drastic change in opinion. Over the past week, NASCAR has slowly molded the chase field back to what it was going to be before Bowyer’s infamous spin…minus the victory that Newman would have most likely collected. When this call was first made, I was shaking my head in disbelief and although I was happy for Gordon; I was not happy with the decision to alter the fabric of the chase to include him. After mulling it over, I have changed my stance.

    There were four cars from three different teams working to make sure Jeff Gordon didn’t make the chase Saturday night. NASCAR has penalized them for it but couldn’t slam them to the ground on the basis that the evidence against the teams was inconclusive. Bowyer’s spin certainly looked intentional but in reality, we can’t be 110% certain that it was without an admission. As for the Gilliland and Logano deal, we know exactly what and who they were talking about on their radio but Penske was smart enough not to say anything on the airways that could be incriminating should NASCAR look into it which they obviously did. Since there is no record of them saying anything, NASCAR also called that evidence inconclusive. In their minds, they felt the right course of action would be to assist the man all of these teams tried and succeeded in hurting. Now these teams didn’t have a vendetta to keep Jeff out of the chase but they needed to make sure Gordon wouldn’t get to the top 10 in order to help themselves.

    NASCAR is trying to undo the damage done by these organizations that attempted to manipulate the outcome of the race to make the chase. Some people are questioning NASCAR’s integrity for changing the rules of the chase like this but in my opinion, these are special circumstances so special exceptions need to be made. Some will argue that Truex should be let in the chase but NASCAR won’t consider that because they’d be rewarding MWR and giving them exactly what they wanted. Some say if we are letting Gordon in, then we should let Truex in as well but the problem with that is that he wasn’t going to make it without that assist from his MWR teammates; Gordon was. I’d take Logano’s three bonus points away though. Before Gilliland let him by, he was still in the top ten in points (courtesy of MWR) but they still did it for insurance. They wanted those three bonus points is all. The biggest thing that concerned me with that radio communication was that it sounded like Penske was trying to buy the spot and that really bothers me…NASCAR had this to say about a possible bargain between the teams:

    “The idea of a bargain that is completely off limits in our view.  But that bargain never — we don’t believe that bargain ever happened, and we don’t believe anything happened, other than the discussions about it, and that’s why the probation is — we’re sending we think an appropriate message there.” – Brian France

    I believe this call by NASCAR will help ease the anger of a lot of irate fans but in the end, there is really no right answer in this mess. It’s like trying to put broken glass back together; you can be very tedious about it and try as hard as you can to fix it but it will always be broken glass. NASCAR is going through a phase right now and what exactly this phase entails will become much clearer tomorrow when NASCAR officials hold their mandatory meeting for all drivers and teams. Right now, the feeling in the garage is that if we are going to mess with the race, do it in a way that NASCAR won’t notice or that they have to call it “inconclusive;” a word I’ve heard more than my own name the past six days. I think NASCAR will lay down some guidelines and rules tomorrow that abrogates helping a teammate during a race. Whatever they say, it will definitely make these teams hesitant and think twice about even the slightest manipulation in the future.

    I do not think that this call compromises the integrity of NASCAR like a contingent of people out there have stated. I don’t think they crossed a line by enlarging the chase field nor do I believe it makes them look bad. Some say that if NASCAR really wanted to be fair, they’d take Logano out of the chase via a 50pt penalty so that Gordon got in just like they did with Truex and Newman. At first, that sounds like a good idea until you really think about it. Joey, like Martin, knew nothing about the side deals going on; they were just focused on driving. Plus, all Penske did was give Joey a little bit of insurance to make sure he got top 1o and didn’t have to settle for the Wild Card. (Another reason to take 3pts from Joey) Still doesn’t make it right but throwing them out of the chase for it seems a bit drastic to me.

    Even without that 1pt from David, Joey would have won the tiebreaker against Gordon so nothing changes. The pass ended up being innocuous to the chase outcome. MWR’s transgressions greatly supersede that of Penske Racing’s. If this was a court of law, I’d charge Penske with a misdemeanor and Waltrip with a felony. That is why you can’t treat Penske the way you treated MWR who manipulated the race on three different fronts. There was the spin that changed the whole race, the green flag pit stop by Vickers and Bowyer who dawdled on pit road until he was two laps down. That’s a 2pt swing in favor of Logano that would have otherwise gotten Gordon into the top 10.

    This is the last I hope to write about the Richmond fallout. I cover racing because I love to talk about racing, not politics. This has been a weird and unfortunate situation that has put NASCAR in a very tight spot and I applaud them for thinking excessively about it and reacting appropriately. Like I said before, there are no right answers or panacea if you will in this deal…there are just options to repair the damage that can’t be fully undone. A devastated and livid Martin Truex Jr. ends up being the guy shafted and the one most feel sympathy for. Martin’s anger from his evanescent stay in the 2013 chase will probably linger with him for a long time unfortunately. My only wish is that NASCAR hit Bowyer with a point penalty that actually affected his chase efforts. Other than that, they did a decent job handling such a tumultuous situation.

    Now, can we please get back to talking about actual racing!

    POLL: Did NASCAR make the right call by adding Jeff Gordon to the chase? 

  • NASCAR, we have a problem

    NASCAR, we have a problem

    It has been said that there has been cheating going on in NASCAR since they first started. Yes, advantages were sought, but usually it was to make the car go faster in order to win, not to throw the race in order to fix an outcome.

    Richard Petty, the King himself, got caught winning with an engine that was not just a bit too big but more like super sized. Country singer Marty Robbins turned down rookie of the race honors after racing at Talladega in 1972 as he had modified the restrictor plate just to see what it was like to run like Richard Petty. Some boys have run with nitrous oxide bottles, some with expanded gas tanks, others with modified car frames, and the list goes on and on.

    So, what is the big deal? Well, fixing the outcome of a contest gets you tossed for life out of baseball. Shoeless Joe Jackson would have been in the Hall of Fame 60 years ago if not for that 1919 World Series. Fixing the outcome in NASCAR should come with consequences, as well, if you do not want it to go the route of professional wrestling. Goodbye six figured prize money, multi-million dollar sponsorship deals, national television contracts, and goodbye to all those fans who expect to see a real contest presenting an outcome not fixed before or during a race.

    If not for Michael Waltrip Racing, Joey Logano would probably have finished 25th instead of 22nd at Richmond. If he had, Logano would have needed to use his wild card eligibility to make it through, beating out both Martin Truex Jr and Ryan Newman, with Jeff Gordon advancing by finishing 10th in the standings. If not for David Gilliland, Logano would have finished 23rd, tied with Gordon in points but still finishing tenth due to having a win, something Gordon does not yet have this season.

    From listening to the in-car radio, it appears Logano’s team big wigs made a deal with Gilliland’s outfit to allow Joey to move past and into 22nd spot on the final lap. Just some insurance, as in the end the spot was not crucial to deciding the final pre-Chase standings. Still, the fix was in, even if it turned out to be unnecessary. Of course, it become unnecessary only because of Bowyer’s spin and the fact both his car and that of Brian Vickers made, some contend, very unnecessary pit stops to allow Logano to move up a couple of spots in the first place.

    More worrisome, there was already chatter to play “Let’s Make A Deal” between Penske and Front Row before Bowyer even went for his slide. That should be a huge red flag for anybody. It may have turned out to be unnecessary in the end, but that was not the case when they started talking.

    Just as you can not fix a baseball game, in this day and age you can not fix a NASCAR race. If you do not believe me, check out the reaction of those MWR sponsors who do not seem very happy about all this. If I have not yet made my point, imagine a major league baseball player going on Twitter to even jokingly discuss fixing a game. That boy’s ass would be grass and the Commissioner would be just jumping at the bit to take his mower to that lawn.

    Can we stop cheating in NASCAR? Nope. Can we make damn sure those on whom we have evidence that they did cheat pay the price? Damn right we can. Cheat if you must, bu if you get caught cheating there should be hell to pay. If NASCAR prefers to continue having its big awards banquet at venues like the Wynn Las Vegas Luxury Resort and Casino instead of the Economy Motel in Rockingham, North Carolina, they damn well better make sure that is the case.