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  • The 2013 Chase – What Has Changed?

    The 2013 Chase – What Has Changed?

    Just three years ago, the Chase looked a lot different than what we’re faced with in 2013. Back in 2010, the Chase field was made up of Denny Hamlin, Matt Kenseth, Carl Edwards, Greg Biffle, Kyle Busch, Tony Stewart, Kurt Busch, Jeff Gordon, Kevin Harvick, Jeff Burton, Jimmie Johnson, and Clint Bowyer. Today, Hamlin, Stewart, Gordon, and Burton didn’t make the cut. Replacing them is Martin Truex, Jr., Dale Earnhardt, Jr., and Joey Logano.

    It is almost a changing of the guard. Sure, Hamlin is young and will be back as will Stewart hopefully, but Gordon? For the second straight year, it came down to the last race for the four time champion. Is his run over? I wouldn’t count him out, given the resources of Hendrick Motorsports, but it may be time to say that his star is dwindling a bit. It happens to everyone and every team.

    Hidden in all of this is the madness of how the final ten races are seeded. In 2013, the point leaders went into the Chase based on the standings after Richmond. It wasn’t enough that the Chase was born after Matt Kenseth’s championship in 2003 when Kenseth only had one win, the seating was tweaked to include a bonus point system that took into consideration the number of wins a driver had. The theory was that wins should be considered. The bonus points goes against anything in sports. It’s like giving the Cincinnati Reds or Los Angeles Dodgers bonus points for winning the most games. It’s unheard of in the annals of sports. Thus, Carl Edwards who won the regular season points race is going to be fifth in the final seeding going into the final standings going into the Chase. Matt Kenseth will be seeded first and Jimmie Johnson second because of their wins. Kasey Kahne, Joey Logano, and Martin Truex, Jr. got in because of wins, and Jeff Gordon and reigning champion Brad Keselowski were lift out because they didn’t win. How would the 2013 Chase look different because of that rule?

    The wins rule only continues to give the advantage to the super teams (Hendrick, Richard Childress Racing, Roush-Fenway, Penske, and Joe Gibbs Racing). In the old system, it was consistency that counted, and wins were rewarded because a race was won. These days, qualifying for the championship run has more to do with the regular season 26 races and more to do with the ability to win races. It’s a noble attempt, but a lot of good teams get left out. My theory has always been that only a few really good teams will have a chance anyway, but this lets teams who really didn’t have a good season, but had a couple of wins the advantage. Only drivers of the previously mentioned super teams have a chance. Regardless, the field (including two cars from Roush-Fenway, three from Hendrick, one from Penske, two from Michael Waltrip Racing, three from Joe Gibbs Racing, and one from Furniture Row—nine from the super teams). The consistency from the first 26 races gives us a clue on who will be the 2013 champion. Just like always.

    Of course there is always a chance that a miracle can happen, just like 2011 when Tony Stewart stormed back to win when all odds were against him. I don’t really see that happening this year. If a team is not in the top six, it’s likely that they will fall to the wayside. With all the changing and tweaking of the “playoff,” will it really make any difference? Money talks and we will see that in the 2013 Chase.

  • Thoughts on the All Star Race — Hendrick Rules

    Thoughts on the All Star Race — Hendrick Rules

    My friend Monte Dutton, who is one of the best or probably was one of the best writers on the NASCAR beat, tweeted Saturday night that unlike normal races, the format actually seems to encourage all hell breaking loose UNTIL the end. That was the case on Saturday. There was a lot of good racing and lots of rubbing, but in retrospect, we should have known what was going to happen. The first four 20-lap segments proved one thing—if you got up front, you were going to be there at the end. No matter what NASCAR has tried to do with this Gen 6 car, the dreaded aero-push still exists. So, whenever Kyle or Kurt or Jimmie got in front, they were off to the races. One by one, they got the lead and couldn’t be headed in each segment.

    It seems to only happen on the 1.5-mile tracks, or maybe it’s my imagination, but at different times it seemed that Kurt or Kyle, or even Carl or Kasey had the best, almost unbeatable car. In the end, it was the guy who led last, and that was Jimmie Johnson who drove into the sunset, as usual. Johnson and his crew chief, Chad Knaus, have all this figured out. No matter where you start, get to the front late and drive away. They constantly outsmart most teams, which is better than having a great driver which is not to discredit Jimmie Johnson. He is a great driver.

    That is one of the reasons why I have contended for a long time that the domination of Jimmie Johnson and Hendrick Motorsports is one small factor in the demise or at least one of the factors why NASCAR is not what it was fifteen or even twenty years ago. Yes, Richard Petty, the King, dominated in the 60’s, and others dominated at different times, but never at the length that the Hendrick Motorsports teams have, especially at Charlotte Motor Speedway and the 1.5 mile tracks. Given that the final ten races are dominated by such tracks, it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to know that we’ve already seen who is going to win the NASCAR championship and his name is Johnson. Last year, bad luck played into that scenario, but without that happening, there are no drivers like Brad Keselowski on the horizon to challenge him. Of course, the great part is you never know. Hendrick Chevrolets and Gibbs Toyota dominate the series, but as the season goes along and the expertise of the Hendrick teams continue to shine, we know the outcome, if Jimmie is out front at the end.

    Who could be the challenger? Naming them is difficult. Competition from the Chevrolet side would include Johnson’s teammates, but others pale by comparison, and that’s a problem. You might make an argument for Kevin Harvick, but we’ve seen less than stellar performance from any of the Richard Childress Racing team. With so many Chevrolets in the lineup—they dominate—it seems Johnson’s main competition is in house.

    Toyota has several challengers. Matt Kenseth and Kyle Busch from Gibbs (and maybe Denny Hamlin if he can perform a miracle), and Clint Bowyer and Martin Truex, Jr. from Michael Waltrip Racing seem to be the best bets. The smart money would be on Kenseth, Busch, or Bowyer, but consistency is a problem so far.

    Ford only has Carl Edwards. Brad Keselowski, the defending champion who seems to have been forgotten in all of this, should be at the top of the list and would be if not for that nasty penalty he and Joey Logano received earlier. I look for Keselowski to come on at the end after they are totally comfortable with the new car. Joey Logano is a year away, although his talent is coming through. His second place finish in the Showdown was impressive. Edwards, though not a factor in most races to win, is showing the consistency that crew chief Jimmy Fenning brought Kenseth for so long. Greg Biffle is out to lunch so far and Ricky Stenhouse, Jr., though a rookie, is showing signs of improvement and could be a spoiler later on.

    In the end, Johnson, who is more than a race ahead of any challenger, will go into the last ten races with a huge advantage, one that will be difficult to overcome. If that happens, it won’t be the drivers’ loss as much as NASCAR. Knowing who is going to win before they play the game (or race) is not going to get more fans in the seats or drive ratings. It’s a problem, but not to the Hendrick guys. They are paid to dominate and it’s up to the opposition to catch up. Unfortunately, that hasn’t happened lately. Let’s hope that changes soon.

  • Johnson Inches Closer With Just a Little Help

    Johnson Inches Closer With Just a Little Help

    Dover International offered a nice respite from the cookie cutter mile and a half tracks, but the winner was a surprise, at least to me. You just can’t count anyone out this year. Many had Jimmie Johnson left for dead and had already crowned Tony Stewart, but Stewart returned to his 2011 form and Johnson finished second. Carl Edwards had the fastest car, and but for a driver mistake, might be leading the pack. Such is the 2011 Chase. It’s unpredictable.

    [media-credit id=26 align=”alignright” width=”238″][/media-credit]Still, I feel Johnson is in the driver’s seat. Johnson, after a couple of bad performances coupled with the leaders falling back to the norm, is back in the race. That’s bad news for the rest of the field. You might blame Edwards for this turn of events. Edwards dominated the Nationwide Series race on Saturday and appeared to be doing the same on Sunday, but a mental mistake cost him the win and left him third in the race. Champions rarely make these kinds of mistakes. In an earlier column, I asked if the No. 99 team was ready to be Sprint Cup champions. I stand by my conclusion then. The mistake cost Edwards two positions and the point lead and allowed Johnson to close in on a sixth straight championship.

    Kurt Busch spoiled the party. The former champ took the ball and ran with the Edwards mistake. He was able to win and keep Johnson behind him. Matt Kenseth’s team made an error by taking on four tires when everyone else took two. Kenseth probably had the second best car, but that call from the crew chief once again allowed Johnson to gain another position. This is how championships are won. Putting space between themselves and Johnson is all important. Those two teams didn’t do that and allowed the five-time champion to inch closer to another title. It was almost scripted.

    Of course, there are the wild cards in the final seven races. Talladega is one place where any one of the nine leaders can have a bad race (I’ve already written off Dale Earnhardt, Jr., Ryan Newman, and Denny Hamlin). I would consider the short track at Martinsville a wild card, but Johnson’s track record there, as well as the fact that Kenseth and Edwards don’t run well there, tends to be in his favor.

    Unless the Roush-Fenway teams of Edwards and Kenseth get their act together, the champion will be a battle between Kevin Harvick, Johnson, and Kurt Busch, but you just never know, as we’ve seen this year. Brad Keselowski could return to his latter season hotness, Jeff Gordon could go on a win streak (which I really doubt),Kyle Busch could revert back to his mid-season form, or Edwards and Kenseth could surprise, but I doubt it. It’s down to Harvick, Johnson, and Kurt Busch, and you know who my money’s on.

    Johnson chided the media after Dover with marked comments. He is a confident fellow. It would be good for the sport if someone else won the Cup, but you can’t argue with performance. The thing that bothers me is that’s it’s almost like other drivers are helping “Old Five Time” to another championship. Sure, they don’t mean to, but the result is the same. Give the trophy to Johnson and let’s race the rest of the season.