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  • Matty’s Picks 2015 – Martinsville Speedway – STP 500

    Matty’s Picks 2015 – Martinsville Speedway – STP 500

    We’re back from the West Coast swing and the shortest track on the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series schedule is the site of the welcome home party this weekend. It will be the 133rd time the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series visits the .526 mile paper clip in southern Virginia, and the winner of the STP 500 will go home with one of the most unique and coveted pieces of hardware in the sport – a grandfather clock from the Ridgeway Clock Company.

    Martinsville Speedway is one of my favorite tracks because of the combination of the long straightaways, lack of banking, and tight corners all contributing to the intense racing produced each and every race at the paper clip. The progressive banking at Bristol Motor Speedway has produce multiple racing grooves, making Martinsville the lone one-groove short track on the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series schedule. Drivers will be fighting for real estate in the bottom of the concrete corners before they hit the asphalt straightaways requiring the correct combination of braking and acceleration a thousand plus times to go home with the grandfather clock on Sunday afternoon.

    Not a bad result last week for me on the third weekend of the West Coast tour, with my worst driver finishing 14th. I thought I had the race-winner locked up in Kurt Busch, but the restarts at the end last week bit me as much as they did Busch. My roster last week included Joey Logano, Kurt Busch, Jimmie Johnson, Carl Edwards and Tony Stewart. 196 points under the FoxSports Fantasy Auto rules last week put me second in the CNY Race Fans group and 18,201 overall.

    Martinsville Picks

    The drivers making up my fantasy roster this week boast 25 combined wins and are the only five active drivers on the list of 24 who have multiple wins at Martinsville Speedway. A couple of important statistics to keep in mind this week when making your picks – 95 of the 132 (71.9 percent) NASCAR Sprint Cup Series races at Martinsville Speedway have been won from a top-10 starting position. However, only seven of the 132 races at Martinsville have been won from a starting position outside the top 10 but both races last season added to that tally. If this year’s races at Martinsville are anywhere close to last year’s events, starting position should not weigh in as heavily as past races at the paper clip.

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  • Matty’s Picks 2015 – Phoenix Round 1

    Matty’s Picks 2015 – Phoenix Round 1

    After a bye week for me, I’m back with another round of Matty’s Picks. We’re still in the desert this week, and I’m hoping my results this week are better than my dismal performance last week at Las Vegas. It was dead last for me last week at Las Vegas on the CNY Race Fans’ Scorecard…

    I’ll make my weekly recap quick because there was nothing really to highlight last week. I had Jimmie Johnson who started 9th, led 45 laps, but had tire trouble and finished 41st. My next hope was Joey Logano, who started 2nd, led 47 laps and finished 10th for 35 points. Kasey Kahne started inside the second row, but got tangled up in a crash with my fourth pick, Carl Edwards who led a couple laps after starting 14th. Kahne was able to return to the race and squeak out a 17th place finish, Edwards however exited the race after the collision with Kahne and finished 42nd. Trevor Bayne, my filler guy, actually netted me my third-most points last week by starting 35th and finishing 28th. When it was all said and done, 92 points is all I could show for myself last week, probably a good idea I was on a bye week from writing.

    We’re onto the second of the three-race west coast swing this week, and the stop is in Phoenix, Arizona for the CampingWorld.com 500 this week. Now for my quirky fact of the week…The race distance is not 500 miles this week, but 500 kilometers, making the races at Phoenix the only oval races on the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series schedule where the race distance is measured by anything other than miles or laps. Starting position is much less important this week than a couple weeks back at Atlanta, as over half of the 37 races at Phoenix have been won from starting spots outside the top 10, including 6 of the last 10 races at the one mile tri-oval in the desert. Lets roll right into my picks this week…

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  • Matty’s Picks 2015 – Vol. 2 – Atlanta Motor Speedway

    Matty’s Picks 2015 – Vol. 2 – Atlanta Motor Speedway

    The 2015 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series is off and running and taking shape with its own headlines. Whether it’s Jeff Gordon’s farewell tour, domestic violence in the sport, driver safety, stolen race cars, or the qualifying fiascoes, the 2015 is quickly creating its own identity just two weeks into the eleven-month racing season.

    This week, we’re at Atlanta Motor Speedway, a race that was moved from the end of August/early September to the number two slot in the series schedule. The never-ending winter this year may have it’s way with the scheduling of the Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 on Sunday, however, with a 50 percent chance of rain and temperatures expected to be in the mid 40’s on Sunday. As the most recent winter weather system moves across the Midwest and into the Southeast, the teams have more to compete with than just the weather this weekend in Atlanta, like thieves, and passing inspection.

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  • Matty’s Picks 2013 – Race 31 Bank of America 500 – Charlotte Motor Speedway – October 12, 2013

    Matty’s Picks 2013 – Race 31 Bank of America 500 – Charlotte Motor Speedway – October 12, 2013

    The drivers of the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series do not have to travel much further than their back yards to get to the track this week. A hometown race this week, and the only night race of the 2013 Chase for The Sprint Cup for the vast majority of teams this week. There have been 109 races at Charlotte Motor Speedway, everyone knows the history that has been made at the track, so I’ll spare the history for some statistics this week.

    Jimmie Johnson leads the series with the most Chase race wins at Charlotte Motor Speedway with three, but none since his last win at Charlotte in October of 2009. The deepest in the field any eventual NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Champion has finished at the Chase race at Charlotte Motor Speedway was 25th all the way back in 2005 when Tony Stewart won his second NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Championship, his first with the Chase setup. All but one of the nine Chase races at Charlotte have been won by Chase drivers, and the second starting position has produced more race winners than any other starting position with 17 eventual race winners starting outside the front row. So with these stats so far, we’ve not eliminated any potential race winners.

    The one statistic very important to this week’s picks comes in the form of a particular manufacturer’s recent struggles at Charlotte Motor Speedway. Just one Ford driver (who is driving a Toyota now) has won a race at Charlotte in the last 22 Charlotte races, and that was Matt Kenseth in the 2011 Bank of America 500. So one driver in 11 years has been able to put Ford in Victory Lane, which is something to look at this week if you’re making fantasy picks.

    The only night race of the 2013 Chase for the Sprint Cup, so enjoy not swapping back and forth between your NFL game and NASCAR this week…

    Kansas Recap

    Not a great week for me last week at Kansas Speedway as I went with the points leader, Matt Kenseth as my winner pick because he was undefeated on the low-banked intermediate tracks this season. He had won at Las Vegas in March, Kansas in April, Kentucky in June, and Chicago in September to open the 2013 Chase. Kenseth’s streak would end last week at Kansas has he was rather quiet for the majority of the race….but extended his streak of 5 straight races where he has led a lap. Kenseth finished 11th, his first finish outside the top 10 in over a month.

    My Dark Horse was exactly that, a shot in the dark especially this season. The dark horse aspect was erased when Brad Keselowski qualified fourth and got to the front for 52 laps last week in Kansas. Crew Chief Paul Wolfe’s gamble with fuel would not pan out as the Miller Lite Ford ran out of fuel on lap 224, the gamble cost Keselowski two laps to the leader which he was able to make up one, but would finish 17th when the checkered flag flew.

    Charlotte Picks

    Winner Pick
    There are many folks looking at the No.18 team this week, for one he has won two races on the high banked intermediate tracks this season, in dominating fashion at Texas in April and most recently at Atlanta on Labor Day weekend. The second reason why Rowdy Busch is circled on may fantasy rosters this week is the thought that he is due for a win at Charlotte Motor Speedway in the Cup Series. Rewind to Memorial Day weekend this season…Kyle Busch was leading the Coca-Cola 600, in the middle of lap traffic when Fox Sports’ SkyCam over the frontstretch at Charlotte Motor Speedway came crashing to the race surface immediately in front of the No.18 car. The impact of the SkyCam resulted in radiator issues and an engine failure for Kyle who was positioned for his first ever Charlotte career win.

    The loop statistics are great for a guy who has never won a race…he’s in the top three in all but one of the loop categories. The only one he is not inside the top three is Green Flag Passes, but Kyle has also qualified well over the years in North Carolina with a couple poles in the points races and an average start of 11.5. The practice sessions today and his win in the NASCAR Nationwide Series on Friday at Charlotte have added to my case for Kyle Busch on Saturday night. I am seeing a win out of this team on Saturday night and them jumping back into the Championship picture when we head to Talladega next week.

    Dark Horse Pick
    Martin Truex Jr. is going to be my longer play this week and here is why…Before Kansas last week and the race at Chicagoland to open the Chase, you had to go back all the way to Las Vegas back in March of 2012 for Truex’s last finish outside the top 15 on any of these intermediate track races. The stretch of 15-straight top 15 finishes is enhanced by the fact that he had two finishes outside the top 10 in the same stretch, both of which coming in the 2012 season.

    Keep in mind Truex led 142 laps and finished 2nd at Texas back in April, also a 1.5-mile night race. Truex qualified 17th on Thursday, but went out for his qualifying run relatively early to some of the other drivers with similar practice speeds. On Friday, Truex was 3rd fastest in the first practice session and 5th in Happy Hour Friday evening, adding to the consistency we’ve seen all season from Truex on these intermediate tracks. He would like nothing more than to win one of these Chase races, so I’m throwing out the couple poor finishes in a row at Chicago and Kansas and going with Truex as a solid longer play this week.

    That’s all for this week, so until we head to the biggest juggernaut of the 2013 Chase for the Sprint Cup….You Stay Classy NASCAR NATION!

  • Matty’s Picks 2013 – Race 28 SYLVANIA 300 – New Hampshire Motor Speedway – September 22, 2013

    Matty’s Picks 2013 – Race 28 SYLVANIA 300 – New Hampshire Motor Speedway – September 22, 2013

    The NASCAR silly season continues on to New England this week (I mean the 2013 Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup) as we head to New Hampshire Motor Speedway for the second time this season. The biggest news yet again this week is what is happening off-track rather than the second race of this 2013 season full of parody and certainly, DRAMA.

    The Michael Waltrip Racing (MWR) saga continued earlier this week as NAPA pulled the plug on sponsoring Michael Waltrip’s No. 56 NASCAR Sprint Cup team. On the company’s Facebook page, NAPA posted this statement: “After thorough consideration, NAPA has made the difficult decision to end its sponsorship arrangement with Michael Waltrip Racing effective December 31, 2013.” A huge statement considering NAPA had been with Michael Waltrip since he raced for Dale Earnhardt Inc. in the 2001 Daytona 500, also Waltrip’s first victory in the cup series.

    The statement expanded on NAPA’s position in the sport and its position in the sponsorship, “NAPA believes in fair play and does not condone actions such as those that led to the penalties assessed by NASCAR. We remain supportive of the millions of NASCAR fans and will evaluate our future position in motorsports.”

    Of course Michael Waltrip had something to say, “NAPA has been with me from winning two Daytona 500s, to missing races with a new start-up team, and back to Victory Lane again,” Waltrip said. “The relationship grew far past that of just a sponsor, but more of a partner and a friend. We will not be racing a NAPA car in 2014, but I have friendships that will last a lifetime.”

    Now, the focus shifts to Martin Truex Jr. and what/if he can do anything to improve his situation in the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series. On Thursday, Truex spent time at a Woonsocket, Rhode Island NAPA store, and was the source of controversy just a day after it was made public that NAPA was pulling the plug on Truex’s boss. Poked by the media via Twitter, Truex remained professional saying he still had NAPA on the hood for Sunday’s race and was doing his duty as a representative of NAPA to meet with fans and store owners.

    The next chapter in the MWR saga will be if/can Truex make a move to another race team because of the sponsorship issues, where will he go, and will NAPA come with him? The obvious seat for Truex would be the No.78 Furniture Row Racing team, a phone that has been ringing off the hook with interest given what the team has done in this 2013 by putting the single-car team into The Chase. The next few weeks will be interesting to see with Truex, Aaron’s will be sticking around, but 5-Hour Energy has still to release the results of their evaluation of their MWR sponsorship.

    New Hampshire Picks

    Winner Pick

    I like back-to-back Joe Gibbs Racing winners to start the 2013 Chase for the Sprint Cup. Since we haven’t had back-to-back race winners yet this season, it’s not Matt Kenseth and since Denny Hamlin’s best finish in 3 months is a 18th place finish at The Brickyard, Kyle Busch has to be my Winner Pick this week.

    Qualifying is fairly irrelevant at New Hampshire, so starting 12th is not deterring me from the guy who had the best 10-lap average in the first practice session on Friday at Loudon. The New Hampshire stats look good for Kyle, carrying the momentum and the confidence of being mentioned as a favorite for the Sprint Cup Championship. He’s won at New Hampshire before, brings an additional 5 top fives, and seven top tens to the table this week. Throw in the practice speeds, I’m sold on Kyle Busch as a Winner Pick this week.

    Dark Horse Pick

    Yet again have I picked the eventual pole-sitter on Thursday Night with Greg on the Prime Sports Network, and yet again will I stick with my Dark Horse pick from Thursday Night.
    Ryan Newman claimed his 7th career pole at New Hampshire on Friday, his 51st career NASCAR Sprint Cup Series pole. Considering the pole position has produced more New Hampshire race winners than any other starting position, I like my chances with Newman on Sunday. He’s got three wins at New Hampshire, an additional six top 5’s, and 15 top 10’s in 23 New Hampshire races. Newman likes Loudon, I like Newman as a longer play this week.

    That’s all for this week, so until the saga continues in Delaware next week…..You Stay Classy NASCAR Nation!

  • Matty’s Picks 2013 – Race 26 Federated Auto Parts 400 – Richmond International Raceway – September 7, 3013

    Matty’s Picks 2013 – Race 26 Federated Auto Parts 400 – Richmond International Raceway – September 7, 3013

    The cliché holds true this week as “it all comes down to this”. Six guys have already claimed their top-10 spots when The Chase begins next week at Chicago – Jimmie Johnson, Clint Bowyer, Kevin Harvick, Carl Edwards, Kyle Busch, and Matt Kenseth…that’s 2 Chevy’s, a Ford, and 3 Toyotas in case you’re keeping score.

    Seventh-place Dale Earnhardt Jr. faces the least pressure among non-qualifiers, needing only a finish of 32nd or better in the 400-lap race on Saturday night to enter the postseason. Joey Logano, Greg Biffle and Kurt Busch complete the provisional top 10 – 16, 14 and six points ahead of 11th-place Jeff Gordon who is still in the hunt for a top-10 spot going into the chase, as he stands no chance at making a Wild Card without a win on Saturday Night.

    Logano and Biffle each have a single victory giving them some Chase insurance as potential Wild Cards, but both have to turn around their historical finishes at Richmond to ensure they’re racing for a championship the next ten weeks.

    Former NASCAR Sprint Cup champions Kurt Busch and Jeff Gordon, however, both are without victories on the season and need to have solid finishes, along with poor finishes from other drivers to punch their tickets to the big dance starting next week at Chicagoland. Both have done what they need to do to lead a lap on Saturday by qualifying their Chevy’s on the front row, so it will be interesting to see if they can spoil a few Chase hopefuls by winning on Saturday Night. This Race is shaping up to be even more exciting than I expected with 3 Wild Card hopefuls staring in the top 3 spots on Saturday Night.

    Two-time 2013 race-winner Kasey Kahne (12th) and Sonoma winner, Martin Truex Jr. (13th) hold the provisional Wild Cards as the points run right now.

    Five drivers have clinched Chase berths on the final night of the regular season since the start of The Chase for the Sprint Cup began in 2004. Ryan Newman’s sixth-place finish in 2005 is the best among the “last in” drivers. Brian Vickers (2009), Kasey Kahne (2006) and Jeremy Mayfield (2004) also were final-race qualifiers. Most recently, Jeff Gordon waited until the final race of the season to solidify his spot in the chase by finishing second in this race last season, so this parody is nothing we’ve not seen before….but we’ve NEVER seen this many drivers on the fence for The Chase. The backstretch wall at Richmond has never seen as many car numbers in yellow (meaning the driver has NOT clinched a spot in the NASCAR Playoffs) as are painted in yellow this season, so for anyone whose never watched a NASCAR race before, Saturday Night is the one to watch.

    I will save my words this week and not recap my poor picks last week at Atlanta and roll right into my picks for Saturday Night’s Federated Auto Parts 400 (even though my Dark Horse Pick last week finished 3rd with a broken wrist).

    Winner Pick

    Richmond has been Clint Bowyer’s best track over his career, and to no surprise, he’s been the best driver statistically over the past 5 races at Richmond.

    Clint has finished outside the top 12 just twice in 15 races at Richmond – averaging a finish of 9th in the meantime. Bowyer is one of just 3 drivers averaging a top-10 finish at Richmond, behind Kyle Busch and Denny Hamlin for third on the best average finish at the 3/4 mile short track. He’s got a couple wins, most recently and notably his win in THIS race last season. In the loop stats, Bowyer is 4th in Average Running position, Driver Rating and Quality Passes, and he’s 5th in 2 more of the 6 loop stats, Average Green Flag Speed and Laps in the Top 15.

    Clint Bowyer holds the record for the deepest in the field ANY Richmond race-winner has started, that was his win from the 31st starting position back in 2008, and throw in the fact that he’s starting 4th on Saturday Night, Bowyer is still my top guy this week. Keep in mind, he led 113 laps and finished 2nd in the April race at Richmond…

    Dark Horse Pick

    I was on the fence on Thursday as I previewed the race with Greg on The Prime Sports Network, but after practice and qualifying, I’m a bit more confident with my selection do go with Dale Earnhardt Jr. as my Dark Horse guy this week.

    He was 7th in first practice and 3rd in Happy Hour earlier today at Richmond International Raceway, and probably took a conservative approach to his qualifying lap today as a 32nd or better finish will punch Jr.’s ticket to the big dance next week.

    Richmond actually ranks as Jr.’s 4th best track over his career with the other two short tracks ranking first (Bristol) and third (Martinsville), much to my surprise as everybody knows the Earnhardt’s for their restrictor-plate racing.

    Jr. has 3 career wins at Richmond, granted none since 2006 but in the loop stats he ranks anywhere from 6th in Fastest Laps Run to 13th in

    Driver Rating.

    Dale Jr. would certainly like to have those 3 bonus points to start The Chase, so I think we’re looking at him staying out of trouble early, then a march to the front during the closing laps on Saturday Night.

    That’s all for this week, enjoy the race and the hunt for The Chase and be sure to tune in Monday to the Prime Sports Network (www.primesportsnetwork.com) as Greg and all the folks from SpeedwayMedia.com preview the 2013 Chase for the Sprint Cup! And as always….You Stay Classy NASCAR (and Dale Earnhardt Jr.) NATION!

  • Matty’s Picks 2013 – Race 25 Advocare 500 – Atlanta Motor Speedway – September 1, 2013

    Matty’s Picks 2013 – Race 25 Advocare 500 – Atlanta Motor Speedway – September 1, 2013

    This week the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series heads to a fast, wide track this week at Atlanta Motor Speedway, with the two twins in the series to Atlanta being Charlotte and Texas with the familiar 24 degrees of banking in the corners and 5 degrees on the straightaway’s.

    It is fast, but it’s really known for producing some of the closest finishes in NASCAR History, including that first career win for Kevin Harvick over Jeff Gordon just a couple weeks after Dale Earnhardt’s death in 2001. That famous finish, 0.006 of a second margin of victory between the two Chevy’s.

    The Advocare 500 is a long race, 325 laps totaling 501 miles and there have been 105 NASCAR Sprint Cup races at Atlanta since the first race there in 1960 so a ton of data to pull from this week to make my picks.

    As far as qualifying goes this week, for once we’re not looking at the pole as being the most proficient starting position like most other circuits we visit each year. Believe it or not the 5th starting position has produced more Atlanta winners than any other starting position spot at 15 race-winners all-time starting from that 5th spot.

    26 of the 105 races all-time have been won from the front row, 60 of the 105 have been won from the top 5 starting spots, and 83 of the 105 races ever at Atlanta Motor Speedway have been won from a top-10 starting position. Making a good lap yesterday in qualifying is very important, even more so recently with 19 of the last 20 races, the last 16 in a row, have been won from the top 11 starting spots.

     

    Atlanta Picks

    On Thursday when I previewed Sunday’s Advocare 500 with Greg on the Prime Sports Network, my picks were spread among 6 drivers, but have now been pared down to a winner pick and a dark horse based on the results of qualifying. A few guys I had picked to take home the crown on Sunday night could not put it all together Friday evening to start in those coveted top 10 starting spots, so I’ve scratched them off the list.
    Two-time Atlanta winner and seven-time winner on the three twins (Atlanta, Charlotte, and Texas), Kasey Kahne split my number two spot on Thursday with the 2001 Spring Atlanta winner mentioned previously, Kevin Harvick. Well, both of which have qualified outside the top-10 spots, Kahne in 18th and Harvick in 30th so I’ve scratched those guys off my list this week.

    As for my 4th pick, Brian Vickers, he came out and qualified 22nd so again, can’t go with him this week.

    That leaves 3 guys from my preview Thursday with Greg that I still like for wins this week at Atlanta.

     

    Winner Pick

    This is a pick which I felt confident in on Thursday and solidified my confidence in him by qualifying 10th on Friday. Jimmie Johnson was the last guy to sweep the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series races at Atlanta in 2007 which notched his second and third wins at the Hampton, Ga racetrack. It is really tough to not like Jimmie’s numbers at Atlanta because he leads the series in Average finish at 11.0, Average Running Position, Driver Rating at 108.3, Average Green Flag Speed, and Laps inside the top 15, so that’s 4 of the 6 loop categories, the other two, Fastest Laps and Quality Passes, Johnson second in both.

    Here are my thoughts on Jimmie Johnson’s mentality going into this weekend’s Advocare 500. Matt Kenseth won last week at Bristol, so now Jimmie Johnson is not the top dog in the Chase anymore, so he’s got something to shoot for. I can’t go against the outstanding numbers this week, I have to go with Jimmie as my Winner and Top pick this week.

     

    Dark Horse Pick

    I had a few guys on Thursday who would have qualified as Dark Horses to win on Sunday. We’ve thrown Vickers out, so that still leaves two more picks which I consider solid sleeper picks this week.

    The first is the guy sitting on the pole this weekend, Ricky Stenhouse Jr. He won the Nationwide series race here last season and finished 3rd in his rookie Nationwide season in 2011. He has never raced at Atlanta in the Cup series so not much to go off except what he’s done at Texas and Charlotte so far this season. He finished 40th at Texas so we’ll throw that out, but in Speedweeks in Charlotte, he finished 2nd in the NASCAR Sprint Showdown, qualifying for the All-Star race and hung around the big boys for a 16th place finish. In the longest race of the year, Stenhouse managed to stay out of trouble and finish 14th after starting 30th, so I like that he’s put his Ford on the front row for tomorrow night’s race.

    The other guy I had penciled in for a Dark Horse win was Martin Truex Jr., broken wrist and all. Truex has managed to qualify his Toyota in 7th, a solid spot considering last year’s race-winner started from the 7th position.

    Truex has gotten progressively better since his first 2 starts at Atlanta where he finished 40th and 37th and the last 3 races have shown a bit of hope for Truex at Atlanta as he was 4th last season after starting 28th.

    What I like about Truex this week is that he’s finished 9th or better in all the Intermediate Tri-Ovals this season, (including Kansas and Las Vegas) most notably his runner up finish he had at Texas back in April when he led 142 laps. Truex is showing a bit more promise not only at Atlanta recently but this year on the tri-ovals, he is going to split my Dark Horse pick this week with Rick Stenhouse Jr.

    That’s all for this week, and be sure to stay tuned the next couple weeks as we roll on to the 2013 Chase for the Sprint Cup, so until we head to the last regular-season race of the year…..You Stay Classy NASCAR NATION!

  • Matty’s Picks Vol. 19 – Pure Michigan 400 – Michigan International Speedway – August 18, 2013

    Matty’s Picks Vol. 19 – Pure Michigan 400 – Michigan International Speedway – August 18, 2013

    Off to Michigan this week for the second and final stop in The Great Lakes State this season and Michigan International Speedway is the 2.5-mile D-shaped superspeedway with 18 degrees of banking in the corners, 12 on the frontstretch, and 5 on the long backstretch. We see speeds top 210 MPH at MIS, making it the fastest track on the schedule.

    Qualifying is fairly important this week, but not nearly as important as last week as 16 of the 88 races at Michigan have been won from the pole – unlike 9 of 30 last week at Watkins Glen. 66 of the 88 have been won from inside the top 10 however, but Mark Martin won from the furthest back – 32nd – in the spring race of 2009.

    As far as the manufacturers go, Ford has the edge by winning 33 of the 88 races all-time but only three of the last 10 races with the next best being Chevrolet with 20 wins. Ford driver Greg Biffle will go for his 3rd straight victory at MIS this week, also for Roush Fenway Racing who happens to have the most wins of any team at Michigan, with 13 wins all-time.

    In news outside of Tony Stewart, it was announced on Tuesday, Juan Montoya would not return to Earnhardt Ganassi Racing in 2014. Juan came to EGR in 2007, his first ride in a stock car – he made The Chase in 2009, but has not finished better than 17th in the points since then for car owner Chip Ganassi.

    My thought is the departure could open the seat for it’s 21-year-old development driver Kyle Larson, who currently competes in the Nationwide Series for Turner Scott Motorsports. Chip Ganassi was actually at Larson’s car, giving him a pep-talk for the majority of the pre-race at Watkins Glen this past weekend before the Nationwide race, so to me he’s probably at the top of the list to replace Juan next season.

    We’ve seen these mid-season announcements before – this season even with Kevin Harvick going to Stewart-Haas – we’ve seen what he’s done sitting 4th in points for RCR and even Ryan Newman losing his ride at SHR and winning the Brickyard. Bottom line is these guys are competitors and they want to win today, next week, next month, and next year. There are no discounted parts put on these cars to guys who are leaving at the end of the season, and these guys without rides next season want a win now more than ever.

    Watkins Glen Recap

    It was a fantastic weekend last week for me at my hometown track, and I was 50/50 on my picks last week at Watkins Glen.

    It was extremely difficult to go to The Glen and not look at Marcos Ambrose to win. He had won back-to-back races at Watkins Glen and was the overwhelming favorite going into last week’s Cheez-It 355 at The Glen for a number of reasons, mainly because he had won those two previous races and because he put his No.9 Ford on the pole, the most proficient starting spot for race-winners over the years at Watkins Glen.

    Well, if the race last week was 51 laps instead of 92, Marcos Ambrose would have been a fantastic pick last week as he completely dominated the early stages of the race last week at Watkins Glen. An unfortunate caution for Ambrose came out in the middle of pit sequences for the majority of the field, and Ambrose was shuffled back in the pack after leading the majority of the early stages of the race.

    Being shuffled back at Watkins Glen is never a good thing, due to the limited passing opportunities, and Ambrose learned the hard way after being tangled up in an accident between Turn 2 and 3 on lap 84. The wreck would end Ambrose’s march towards the front last week and would land him a disappointing 31st place finish.

    As far as my Dark Horse goes, Martin Truex Jr’s. race at Watkins Glen was much less eventful, running in the top 5 all day, and being in the front of the field for the majority of the day paid its dividends as Truex would score a 3rd place finish behind Kyle Busch and Brad Kesolowski. I’m not sure I’ll be allowed to call Truex a Dark Horse next season with his win at Sonoma in June and his 3rd place finish at The Glen last week, bringing his season road-course average finish to runner-up finish.

    Michigan Picks
    Winner Pick

    Up until this year, Matt Kenseth added to the dominance of Roush-Fenway Racing at Michigan International Speedway, winning twice for Jack Roush in 2002 and 2006. On top of the wins, he’s got 12 Top 5’s and 18 top 10’s at MIS in 28 races, making him the 2nd best driver overall at Michigan all-time.

    Kenseth is in the top 5 in ALL BUT ONE….of the pre-race loop stats, he’s second in Average Running Position and Driver Rating, he’s third in Average Green Flag Speed, Laps in the top 15, and quality passes, and the one loop stat he’s not in the top 5……Fastest Laps Run – he’s got 159 and that’s good enough for 6th on the list. He’s qualified 12th which doesn’t scare me because of the great passing stats he has over the years at Michigan.

    He was 7th at California in March, 6th at Michigan earlier this year in June, and with the way he’s running this season, it’s been 5 weeks since he’s won and without a win this week, he’ll tie his longest stretch this season without a win….so I’m going with Matt Kenseth as my top pick this week.
    Dark Horse Pick

    On Thursday while previewing this week’s race at Michigan with Greg on the Prime Sports Network, I picked Joey Logano as my longshot play of the week. Qualifying has really helped my cause with Logano because yesterday in NASCAR Sprint Cup Series qualifying, Logano shattered the track record at Michigan International Speedway and captured the Coors Light Pole, another week for me picking the pole-sitter before any cars hit the track.

    Logano won the Nationwide race at Michigan last season, but MIS hasn’t been too kind to him in the cup series. Besides his 9th earlier this season, he’s finished 31st, 35th, and 21st in his previous 4 starts at Michigan. He did lead 21 laps in that race in June race, the only laps he’s ever led at Michigan, and with his teammate Brad Keselowski coming alive down the stretch here this season, I think this team is only going to get better. Considering 16 of the 88 races at Michigan have been won from the pole position, I like my chances this week with Logano, he’ll stay my longshot play of the week.

    That’s all for this week, so until we head for the Hills of Tennessee…..You Stay Classy NASCAR NATION!

  • Matty’s Picks Vol. 18 – Cheez-It 355 at The Glen – Watkins Glen International – August 10, 2013

    This week we travel back to the place that was the start of my NASCAR days. Sunday’s race at Watkins Glen International marks my 19th consecutive year at The Glen and it’s a track near and dear to my heart, and no matter where life takes me, it will always serve as my ‘Hometown Track’. The Glen may not be the most famous stock car track in the world, but it produces some of the best beating and banging NASCAR has to offer. The past two NASCAR Sprint Cup Series races at The Glen have also produced arguably the best finishes in as many seasons, so if you’re thinking about

    My first memories of WGI involve standing on a trash can on the inside of Turn 11 while my father tried to time a photo just right in order to capture a snapshot of The Intimidator and one of his biggest fans in the same frame. That moment is one of the most special memories I have in racing and is something that keeps me coming back year after year.

    In my teenage years, Ed Coombs taught me the art of obtaining autographs outside the motor-coach lots when Ron Hornaday invited me inside the fences and into his motor-coach for a quick autograph and meet and greet, so I’ve had some great experiences at The Glen over the years.

    I’ve had some great times at Watkins Glen over the years, and continue to add to my bank of memories each year.

    Now that the trip down memory lane is over, we can get to some numbers, and we’ll start with how important it is to qualify well at The Glen. Nine of the thirty races at Watkins Glen have been won from the pole position, including 3 straight wins from the pole for Mark Martin from 1993-1995. To add to my point, 22 of the 30 races all-time have been won from starting spots inside the top 10, and the furthest back a race winner has started was Steve Park from the 18th position back in 2000.

    The starting field has been set and two-time Watkins Glen winner and overwhelming favorite, Marcos Ambrose will start on the pole with Clint Bowyer sharing the front row with Ambrose. The other road-course winner in 2013, Martin Truex Jr. will start from the third position with another Toyota in AJ Allmendinger starting fourth. Kyle Busch will start fifth, and the Sonoma pole-sitter, Jamie McMurray will start next to Busch on row number three.

    Last year’s race finished in dramatic fashion as Marcos Ambrose and champion-to-be Brad Keselowski traded paint on and off the racing surface during the race’s final lap, also being voted as one of the best finishes in NASCAR HISTORY.

    Since practice, qualifying, and now the NASCAR Nationwide series race have all concluded, I’m ready to try and make some educated picks and share my thoughts for the outcome of tomorrow’s 28th Annual Cheez-It 355 at The Glen.

    Winner Pick

    On Wednesday, I previewed the race this weekend at The Glen with Greg on the Prime Sports Network, and I had Kyle Busch as my top pick, Marcos Ambrose as my number two guy, and Martin Truex Jr. and AJ Allmendinger as longshot plays this week. One factor in my picks on Wednesday which is a bit different than my column here on SpeedwayMedia.com is the odds at the time of my picks. On Wednesday, Marcos Ambrose was the overwhelming favorite to win at Watkins Glen this weekend. The odds were a bit better with Kyle Busch at 8 to 1 so I made him my top pick on Wednesday.

    Well, I’m going to swap my top pick for my number two pick from Wednesday for a couple of reasons. I’ve recently been making picks based on trends, not steering from the recent race trends. Here is the trend I found the last time a driver won three Sprint Cup races in a row at Watkins Glen International – they started on the pole at least once. Both Mark Martin and Jeff Gordon, the two drivers who have won three in a row at The Glen both started on the pole during their stretch of wins.

    Marcos Ambrose has two wins in a row at Watkins Glen going into Sunday’s race, and both of those wins were not from the pole or the front row even. The pole position is the most proficient starting spot in the field producing 9 wins in 30 races. The best road-course driver in stock car racing has that pole position for tomorrow’s Cheez-It 355 at The Glen and was extremely modest about his record-breaking lap after he claimed the Coors Light Pole,

    “It was a great lap. It wasn’t perfect. It wasn’t the cleanest lap I could have done, but it certainly carried a lot of momentum and it was enough to get the job done….We were the lucky one on the day to get the pole, so I’m very proud of our day. I’m looking forward to the race and feel like we have as good a chance as anybody to win and go three in a row.”

    It’s that confidence I like, and with his first practice session being spent in race trim and the No. 9 team being shown second on the speed charts, its’ Ambrose as my Winner Pick this week.

    Dark Horse Pick

    Unlike my winner pick, my Dark Horse or longer plays have not changed. I like both Martin Truex Jr. and AJ Allmendinger who were my longshot plays on Wednesday. It was Truex who was shown on top of the speed charts in first practice on Friday in both speed and best 10 lap average, and it’s Truex as my Dark Horse of the week.

    Martin Truex Jr. likes the car Michael Waltrip Racing has provided for him this week, and it’s again the confidence I like at a track as tough as Watkins Glen.

    “Typically we have not qualified well here. We always raced well. We had such a good car in race trim (on Friday). I felt like we were definitely the fastest car here and that kind of made me back off a little bit (in qualifying) to get a nice and consistent lap in.”

    Those are my picks, be sure to tune in to www.PrimeSportsNetwork.com  at 7:00PM tonight as Greg, Ed Coombs, and I give a final preview of tomorrow’s Cheez-It 355 at The Glen. Follow me on Twitter @ML_B_Lo for live action from Watkins Glen International.

    So, until next time…You Stay Classy NASCAR NATION!

  • Matty’s Picks Vol. 17 – Crown Royal Presents the Samuel Deeds 400 at The Brickyard Powered by BigMachineRecords.com – Indianapolis Motor Speedway – July 28, 2013

    Matty’s Picks Vol. 17 – Crown Royal Presents the Samuel Deeds 400 at The Brickyard Powered by BigMachineRecords.com – Indianapolis Motor Speedway – July 28, 2013

    The NASCAR Sprint Cup Series visits the famed 2.5-mile rectangle in the Midwest at Indianapolis Motor Speedway for the 20th time on Sunday for a 400-mile race which will certainly have some foreshadowing into the future this week and here is why. The race at IMS has some serious championship implications this week as 15 of the 19 races at the Brickyard have been won by series champions. The Indy race winner has gone on to capture the NASCAR Sprint Cup title in eight different seasons and Jimmie Johnson was the most recent in 2009, duplicating his Indy-Sprint Cup championship sweeps of 2006 and 2008.

    Indy has eluded the majority of the top 10 guys in points over the years as Jimmie Johnson and Kevin Harvick are the only two members of the current top 10 in the standings have won at The Brickyard.

    As far as the makes go, Chevy has been nearly invincible over the years at the brickyard as the last non-Chevrolet to win at IMS was Ray Evernham’s Dodge driven by a guy named Bill Elliot all the way back in 2001, in fact a General Motors product has won 15 of the 19 races held at the Brickyard which includes Bobby Labonte’s win for Pontiac in 2000.
    Nothing to recap this week as we had our first week off since Easter last week, so we’ll move on to the picks.

    Winner Pick
    On Thursday while previewing today’s race from the Brickyard with Greg Depalma on the Prime Sports Network, it was Kevin Harvick who I liked to win because of his flat-track history and the generous 20 to 1 odds that came along with him. Despite a couple solid practice sessions on Friday and Saturday, Karvick’s qualifying position has me a bit gun-shy to pull the trigger on him for this afternoon. Just 3 of the 19 races at the Brickyard have been won from starting spots 20th or worse, and Harvick qualified his Chevrolet 24th so though I still think he poses a solid threat for his 3rd victory of the season, I don’t think he’s got the car to beat this weekend.

    Instead, I’m going to swap my pick this week and go with the other guy I picked Thursday to win at The Brickyard in Kasey Kahne. Kasey has a lot going for him this weekend as first, he’s in a Chevy, second he finished runner up in the 2005 race in just his 2nd ever start at IMS, and 3rd he’s been fast all weekend. Kahne was 5th in the first practice, 2nd behind Kurt Busch in Happy Hour, and will roll off 7th when the green flag flies later this afternoon. I’ve got a hunch today, and I think we see Kasey Kahne kiss the bricks for the first time.

    Dark Horse Pick
    My Dark Horse driver has not changed from Thursday but the odds associated with my Dark Horse sure have. Juan Montoya started the week as a 30 to 1 longshot. He’s now just behind guys like four-time Brickyard winner Jeff Gordon and two-time winner Tony Stewart at 12 to 1 right now! This means I’m not the only person in the world to believe in this guy because of his history at IMS. This car has shown speed again this year at The Brickyard and after winning the first practice session, following up in 3rd on the charts during Happy Hour, and qualifying 8th, my pick from Thursday is looking better and better.

    If it wasn’t for a pit road speeding penalty back in 2009, Montoya’s name would have been etched in Brickyard history in the stock car category, and I think Juan is due for a win at The Brickyard.

    That’s all for this week, enjoy the race and until we are done with the flat tracks for a few weeks…..You Stay Classy NASCAR NATION!