Tag: Jimmie Johnson

Homestead Championship Preview

It’s hard to believe it but the longest season in sports is just about over with. In a few days, three new NASCAR champions will be crowned. Matt Crafton leads the Camping World Truck Series standings and only needs to start the race in order to clinch his first title. Austin Dillon is the points leader at the Nationwide level with Indy 500 winner Sam Hornish Jr. stalking him from only eight points back. The owner’s title is still up for grabs as well and will come down to Gibbs’ No.54 car versus the No.22 of Penske Racing. In Cup, 5-time champion Jimmie Johnson can almost taste his 6th Cup and only needs a top 23 finish to ensure the crown is his but Kenseth and Harvick will be ready to pounce just in case the unthinkable happens and that No.48 stumbles. Here’s a breakdown of what is at stake in the season finale, who the players are and my predictions regarding who will emerge victorious when the checkered flag falls on 2013.

NASCAR Camping World Truck Series

As I previously mentioned, this battle is all but over. Matt Crafton has only won a single race this year but 19 top 10’s in 21 races is more than enough to compensate for the lack of visits to victory lane. He leads Ty Dillon by 46 points and when he takes the green flag Friday night, it will preclude anyone from challenging him no matter what happens during the race. This is Matt’s 13th full-time season in the Truck series and to finally win that first title will be such a relief for him and his team. Speaking of his team, the fight for the owner’s title is not quite over with just yet. ThorSport leads by 23pts which is still a fairly comfortable margin but the man and team chasing them happens to be Kyle Busch who has won four races and posted seven top five’s in just 10 starts this season. Yeah, he’s kind of a big deal when he shows up at these Truck races.

My Prediction: The No.3 team will not lock Matt Crafton up in a Port-O-Potty and he will easily win the driver’s title with probably another top ten finish to end his impressive year. I also believe that ThorSport will hang on against the hard-charging Kyle Busch and his No.51 team to win the owner’s championship.

NASCAR Nationwide Series

Austin Dillon is a former Camping World Truck Series champion and his opponent is a former winner of the Indianapolis 500; Sam Hornish Jr. A mere eight points separate these guys and a slip up by one will all but hand the title over to the other. Dillon wants it because he’s moving to the Cup level in 2014 and Hornish wants it because, well, he currently doesn’t have a ride for next year. The owner’s standings is an even closer battle with just four points between the top two and things have gotten fairly hostile between the rival teams as of late. Joey Logano will pilot the No.22 for Penske Racing which is currently in command of the points while Joe Gibbs Racing wisely has Kyle Busch in the No.54 car. An interesting detail that should not be overlooked is the fact that Penske is entering a third car in the race which will be driven by none other than Brad Keselowski who has vowed retaliation against Busch for spinning him out at Kansas. Will he fulfill his promise? I highly doubt it but will he do everything he possibly can to make Kyle Busch’s day a living hell? Of course he will! That’s why he’s in this race…to take points from that No.54 and the No.3 as well as do his best impression of a moving roadblock when necessary.

My Prediction: This will be the most enthralling title bout of the weekend and Austin Dillon will win the driver’s title with a top five finish while the No.54 steals the owner’s championship from Penske by winning the race.

NASCAR Sprint Cup Series

Jimmie Johnson is at it again! After winning five straight championships and taking a two year hiatus from the big table in Vegas, the California native is closing in on the #SixPack. Three drivers mathematically have a shot at taking home the hardware but it is going to take a catastrophic failure on the No.48 or a crash to even give gentleman Matt and the pugnacious Harvick a chance. It’s unlikely but can definitely happen though. Jimmie may seem infallible but in reality, bad luck can just as easily bite him as it can his adversaries. In fact, his last two finishes at Homestead are 36th and 32nd. In 2011, he spun out with what was an awful car and in 2012, he suffered rear gear failure so don’t fool yourself into believing this thing is over with. Remember, this is NASCAR. We set race tracks on fire and break our ex-teammate’s back; okay. If Jimmie were to have some unforeseen issues that consequently costs him the title, imagine the dogfight we would have between JGR newbie Matt Kenseth and lame-duck Kevin Harvick! RCR hasn’t won the Sprint Cup championship since 1994 with Dale Earnhardt; that was nearly 20 years ago and it’s been a decade since Matt was last crowned champion.

My Prediction: Jimmie Johnson survives and wins his 6th championship but if he were to falter and it came down to the two guys chasing him, I think Matt Kenseth would prevail seeing that JGR has practically dominated most of the 1.5 mile races this year.

No matter which drivers and teams are able to call themselves champions when the day is done, I can honestly say that I’ve enjoyed the 2013 season. It hasn’t been the best year in NASCAR’s 65 year history but it was certainly an interesting one. Good luck to all those chasing championships this weekend and may the best (or luckiest) man win!

November 14, 2013
The Final Word – Down to one question: Can Johnson avoid disaster at Homestead?

The fat lady is on stage, the band is ready, the curtain has gone up. All we need now is a nod from the conductor for her to sing her song. Jimmie Johnson finished third at Phoenix. Matt Kenseth had problems, came home 23rd, and the gap between the two leaders is now 28 points. With only 48 left on the table at Homestead, Five Time needs to finish 23rd or better to amend his nickname yet again.

It is not that Phoenix did not have its drama. It did, but it came in dribbles. When Joey Logano nudged Johnson with his fender on the opening lap, some gasped. When Carl Edwards did the same later on, and Jimmie’s car danced toward the wall, they gasped some more. Then they relaxed. While Johnson could move his way to the front, Kenseth had troubles keeping up. 21 cars finished on the lead lap; Kenseth was not amongst them.

What Matt needed was the kind of day Kevin Harvick had. Even if that took place, Kenseth would still be sitting a point back. For Harvick, it marked his fourth win of the season, gave him a six point advantage for the day on Johnson, but left him a distant 34 points back in third place. While Harvick has been averaging a 7th place finish in the nine Chase events, Kenseth has produced an 8th place pace. As for Johnson, his average finish has been 4.7, aided by a 5.8 average start. Only a disaster down in Florida will stop this juggernaut from reclaiming its title.

Rating Phoenix – 6.5/10 – The reason we have announcers for televised events is to enhance the action, to inform and, if need be, to entertain. Phoenix provided such great camera views that the action was enhanced when the seven desk personnel did not say a thing. With Kenseth having his problems, the drama was somewhat diminished, but the action was there for all to see. Yes, sometimes less can indeed be more.

Jimmie Johnson has never won at Homestead in a dozen attempts. His finishes there the past two runs have been 36th last year, 32nd the year before. A repeat of 2012 would truly be a disaster for our leader and Kenseth would win the crown by finishing 7th, while Harvick would need a win. Not impossible and that is why the fat lady has not yet sung her song. However, if I were a betting man… Enjoy your week.

November 13, 2013
NASCAR Top-10 Power Rankings: Phoenix

Note: The quotes in this article are fictional.

1. Jimmie Johnson: Johnson started on the pole and finished third in the AdvoCare 500, well ahead of Matt Kenseth, who struggled and finished 23rd. Johnson has a 28-point lead heading into Homestead, and needs only a finish of 23rd or better to clinch the Cup.

“Anything can happen at Homestead,” Johnson said. “But I’d prefer that nothing happen.

“I’m close to my sixth Cup title, which would place me only one behind Richard Petty and Dale Earnhardt. My goal is to be mentioned in the same sentence with ‘The King’ and ‘The Intimidator,’ and I don’t see anything stopping me, except a cool nickname.”

2. Matt Kenseth: Kenseth finished 23rd on a disastrous day at Phoenix, handicapped by a car that proved unresponsive to adjustments. He started the day seven points behind Jimmie Johnson, and finished in a 28-point hole.

“I won my first Cup championship ten years ago,” Kenseth said. “Likewise, my second Cup championship is history, also.”

3. Kevin Harvick: Harvick won at Phoenix, recording his fourth win of the year in his next-to-last race with Richard Childress Racing. He is third in the points standings, 34 out of first.

“This may be my last victory burnout,” Harvick said. “And speaking of ‘burnout,’ I am so ready to leave RCR. When you combine nepotism with narcissism, you get RCR. There’s no ‘I’ in team, and trust me, there’s no ‘me’ in that team.”

4. Dale Earnhardt, Jr.: Earnhardt continued his strong finish to the Chase with a fourth in the Advocare 500, his fourth-consecutive top 10 and seventh of the Chase. He is fifth in the Sprint Cup points standings, 63 out of first.

“It’s important to build momentum for next year,” Earnhardt said. “And we have. So, contrary to the fans of Junior Nation, who have a habit of saying ‘Wait ‘til next year,’ I can’t wait ‘til next year.”

5. Jeff Gordon: Gordon bounced back from a difficult Sunday at Texas with a solid 14th at Phoenix. He is sixth in the points standings, 80 behind Jimmie Johnson.

“Jimmie Johnson may be leading the points,” Gordon said, “but I’m looking over my shoulder, as well. Is Clint Bowyer behind me?”

6. Kyle Busch: Busch finished seventh in the AdvoCare 500, posting his 21st top-10 result of the year. He is currently fourth in the points standings, 57 out of first.

“On a more positive note,” Busch said, “I won my 12th Nationwide race of the season on Saturday. My civilian driving record says I’m not a ‘Sunday driver,’ and, apparently, so does my Sprint Cup driving record.”

7. Brad Keselowski: Keselowski led 27 laps and finished 12th in the AdvoCare 500.

“Sadly, this just wasn’t the year for the No. 2 Miller Lite Ford,” Keselowski said. “Thus, my championship reign is ending at one year. It seems it was ‘2’ time only one time.”

8. Greg Biffle: Biffle took 13th at Phoenix on a day when Jimmie Johnson all but clinched the Sprint Cup championship. Biffle is now seventh in the points standings, 83 out of first.

“I plan to confront Johnson again,” Biffle said, “and ask him, ‘What’s your problem?’ If he responds, ‘I got 99 problems, but a ‘Biff’ ain’t one,’ then he’s officially the greatest driver of all time.”

9. Clint Bowyer: Bowyer finished 20th at Phoenix, another disappointing result in the Chase For The Cup. Bowyer has only two top-5 finishes in the Chase.

“The race was called the ‘AdvoCare 500,’” Bowyer said, “but not by everyone. To me, it was the ‘I Don’t Care 500.’”

10. Joey Logano: Logano scored another top-10 finish with a ninth at Phoenix. He is ninth in the points standings, 97 out of first.

“I almost took out Jimmie Johnson on the first lap,” Logano said. “But I didn’t, and that’s too bad, because I really wanted to have an impact on the Chase.”

November 12, 2013
SPRINT CUP: Early Predictions for Championship Weekend

This is it. The final showdown. Matt Kenseth and Jimmie Johnson have gone toe-to-toe all throughout the Chase, and it all gets settled on Sunday.

Both drivers are separated by a mere 10 points, and … wait a second, I forgot the AdvoCare 500 happened. Back to reality, Johnson has a nearly insurmountable 28 point advantage going into the final race at Homestead-Miami Speedway. I did not expect Kenseth to lose many points on Johnson, but thanks to a couple 20 second pit stops and an ill-handling racecar, the driver of the 20 car had to settle for a mediocre 23rd place finish, while Johnson came home third.

With that being said, Kenseth is more than likely going to have to win the race and rely on Johnson slipping out of the top 25. Is it possible? Absolutely. Is it going to happen? Definitely not. Johnson will nonchalantly hang around in a comfortable position inside the top 15 to easily secure his sixth championship.

As much as I hate to admit it, as far as the championship battle is concerned, it might be a real yawn-fest on Sunday, with Johnson nearly guaranteed to become “Mr. 6 Pack.”

However, the same can’t be said about the other drivers who will be looking for a win. Here a few drivers you should keep an eye on, and one of them might end up in Victory Lane.

Carl Edwards

Recent history at Homestead-Miami Speedway has shown that Edwards has been one of the drivers to beat at that track. Over the past five races at HMS, he’s scored two wins (2008 and 2010), three top fives and four top 10s. He’s also led over a third of the laps he’s completed during that time period, and he has an average finish of a stunning 4.6. Edwards also has a couple wins this year, but they both came on tracks 1-mile or smaller. Can Edwards bounce back from the fuel debacle last week and end the season on a high-note? It’s very likely.

Kevin Harvick

Kevin Harvick has been a formidable contender on the 1.5 mile tracks this year, posting victories at Charlotte and Kansas. He also won last week, thanks to Edwards’ misfortunes. As far as his recent history at Homestead-Miami is concerned, Harvick hasn’t won in his last seven starts there, but he’s been very solid, notching four top fives and six top 10s. He’s also scored the second most points of any other driver during that time period, and has an average finish of 6.9. Harvick had a solid eighth place finish at the 2012 event, and I expect him to better that performance on Sunday.

Jeff Gordon

Although Homestead-Miami Speedway has been mostly dominated by Roush Fenway Racing throughout the years, Jeff Gordon of Hendrick Motorsports went to victory lane last year, and he could repeat his performance. Over his past 10 starts, Gordon has posted one victory (2012), six top fives, eight top 10s, and an average finish of 9.8. He’s finished in the top five in his last two trips to HMS, so look for Big Daddy to replicate that kind of performance.

Expectations for Matt Kenseth

The way I see it, Kenseth has two choices going into Sunday. First choice, he can put an aggressive set-up on the car that will maximize his opportunity to win the race, but could cause mechanical failure, which could drop him to third in the final standings behind Kevin Harvick. Second choice, he can shoot for a solid top five run and ultimately put up the white flag of surrender to Johnson and settle for second place.

It doesn’t take a genius to realize that Kenseth will all but certainly choose the first choice. Kenseth still has a infinitesimally minuscule slimmer of hope left to win this championship, and the only way to stop Johnson from becoming six-time is to lead the most laps and win the race, and hope that Johnson somehow stays out of the top 25.

When everything is said and done, I fully expect Johnson to be hoisting the championship trophy, with the final points margin being somewhere around 10-15.

November 12, 2013
Surprising and Not Surprising: Phoenix Advocare 500

After welcoming a serviceman home in honor of Veteran’s Day and with all eyes on the Chase contenders, here is what was surprising and not surprising from the 26^th annual Advocare 500 at Phoenix International Raceway.

Surprising: Drivers leaving their teams at the end of the 2013 season had surprisingly good finishes, with the best of course being race winner Kevin Harvick, who will leave Richard Childress Racing to go to Stewart Haas Racing in 2014.

“We challenge each other,” Kevin Harvick said of his RCR relationship. “There’s no better way to go out than to do what we’ve done this year.”

“I think as we move forward will probably make us closer as friends.”

And along with Harvick, Kurt Busch, another driver in transition who will be leaving Furniture Row Racing to join Harvick as Stewart Haas Racing teammate, finished fifth.

The top ten was filled with other racers leaving their teams after the checkered flag flies next weekend at Homestead Miami Speedway, including Juan Pablo Montoya, who finished sixth and is heading to the IndyCar Racing Series; Martin Truex Jr., who is leaving Michael Waltrip Racing for Furniture Row Racing and finished eighth; and Ryan Newman, who finished tenth and will head from Stewart Haas Racing to Richard Childress Racing in the New Year.

Not Surprising: With championship points on the line all around, there were a few mea culpas issued not surprisingly after the race end.

Carl Edwards, who had a scary moment of close racing and contact with championship contender Jimmie Johnson, could not apologize to him more. Edwards first apologized over his radio after the contact and then met Johnson on pit road after the race to declare mea culpa yet again.

“Yeah, I definitely did not mean to hit him,” Edwards, driver of the No. 99 Fastenal Ford, said of his Johnson close encounter. “He did a heckuva job saving it and I’m just glad he saved it.”

“I did not want to be part of the championship in that manner.”

Edwards himself almost had the race won but ran out of gas to finish a disappointing 21^st.

The other mea culpa, which had definite championship implications, came from Jason Ratcliff, crew chief for Matt Kenseth. Ratcliff and the team struggled all day with the handling of the car and in the pits, finishing 23^rd in the No. 20 Dollar General Toyota and falling 28 points behind the Chase leader.

“I apologize for giving you something like that,” Ratcliff said to Kenseth. “I apologize for a really poor job of executing.”

“I apologize to all of you,” Ratcliff continued. “Just a bad job on my part.”

Surprising: While Phoenix usually generates some exciting racing, there was a surprising amount of strategy that played out throughout the race, with cars staying out, pitting, and taking all kinds of tire combinations. In fact, there was so much confusion for one driver that it almost made his head spin.

“There was a lot of strategy and it confused the heck out of me,” Joey Logano, driver of the No. 22 Shell/Pennzoil Ford said after finishing ninth. “At times we were leading the race and at times we were 24^th.”

“Overall, it was a weird race because you didn’t know where you were at and you just passed the cars in front of you,” Logano continued. “It was too confusing for me.”

Not Surprising: Jimmie Johnson channeled his inner dirt track racer to bring home yet another top-ten finish, his 17^th in 21 races at Phoenix International Raceway. To be precise, Johnson finished third in his No. 48 Lowe’s/Kobalt Tools Chevrolet.

“I knew I had a great race car,” Johnson said. “But I really had to fall back on my dirt driving skills racing out here in the desert all the years that I did.”

“I knew I could get through traffic and I knew I was in good shape relative to the championship battle,” Johnson continued. “I’m in a position I want to be in and now we just need to go to Florida and have another good day.”

Surprising: Kasey Kahne, driver of the No. 5 Farmers Insurance Chevrolet is a basement dweller in the point standings no more, thanks to his second place finish in the Valley of the Sun. Kahne advance from the 13^th position in the Chase to the 12^th spot after posting his seventh top-10 at Phoenix International Raceway.

“We got our car really good about Lap 150,” Kahne said. “I got a little loose in the last restart but just felt good about our Farmers Insurance Chevrolet.”

“We made some big gains and I got a nice second-place finish.”

Not Surprising: Ricky Stenhouse Jr. not only maintained his strong lead in the Rookie of the Year battle over girlfriend and competitor Danica Patrick but actually gained ground after his 12^th place finish and her 27^th place finish.

“It was a tough day all around,” Patrick said after starting 32^nd, battling a loose race car and getting caught in a major-league wreck with Cole Whitt, David Reutimann and Justin Allgaier. “We started out pretty loose and got down a lap early.”

“Then obviously we got caught up in the accident,” Patrick continued. “It’s disappointing, but the GoDaddy guys did a good job of fixing it as best they could so we could finish.”

Surprising: It will be a surprisingly different Vegas experience for Dale Earnhardt Jr. Usually the sport’s most popular driver picks up that award at the Myers Brother Luncheon and heads on home, however, this year, he will have a major speaking role as he is fifth in the point standings after finishing fourth at Phoenix in spite of a loose wheel.

“We had a fast car,” the driver of the No. 88 National Guard Chevrolet said. “I thought Steve Letarte (crew chief) could get some good strategy to get us back up into the top-10, top-five and I was real happy with the way we were able to rebound.”

This was Junior’s third top-5 finish in the past four races.

Not Surprising: Jeff Gordon, driver of the No. 24 Axalta Chevrolet achieved another milestone after his 14^th place finish at Phoenix. Gordon led his 400^th lap in 2013, which marks the 20^th consecutive year that he has led at least 400 laps.

Surprising: Phoenix proved to be the tale of the two Davids, with David Gilliland having a good run, at one point running top-10, and teammate David Ragan having engine troubles yet again.

Gilliland finished 24^th and moved up to 25^th in the point standings while Ragan finished 35^th and fell to 28^th in points.

“That was probably the best car we had all year,” Gilliland said. “We had some brake issues at one point, but overall it was a great car and a good points day.”

Not Surprising: Greg Biffle had an eventful day at Phoenix as he had to start from the back of the field due to a transmission change in his No. 16 3M Scotch Ford.

Nevertheless, Biffle was able to run in the top-10 with the help of some strategy from atop the pit box and finished 13^th in the race.

Biffle also moved up one place in the championship standings to the seventh spot.

The NASCAR Sprint Cup Series will head south to Homestead-Miami Speedway for the Ford Ecoboost 400 season finale where the 2013 champion will be determined.

November 11, 2013
Matty’s Picks 2013 – Race 35 AdvoCare 500 – Phoenix International Raceway – November 10, 2013

The West Coast swing of the 2013 Chase for the Sprint Cup is on this weekend as we head for the one-miler in the desert. This thing is coming down to the wire between five-time NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Champion, Jimmie Johnson, and seven-time 2013 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series race-winner Matt Kenseth. Just seven points separate the two heading into this weekend’s AdvoCare 500, and ironically, this was the same margin Jimmie Johnson had over 2012 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Champion, Brad Keselowski heading into the 9th race of the Chase last season.

Phoenix has been an important race since the series swapped to the Chase setup, as the worst finish in a Chase race by the eventual series champion at Phoenix International Raceway is 10th, by Kurt Busch in 2004. Adding to the importance this weekend is the fact that the average Chase race finish by the eventual series champion at Phoenix International Raceway is 3.7! The catalyst in all of this is the fact that in each of previous three seasons, the eventual NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Champion was sitting second in the points standings following the 8th Chase Race. Jimmie Johnson erased a 33 point deficit over the final two Chase races in 2010 to score his fifth and most recent NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Championship. Tony Stewart was three points behind Carl Edwards in 2011 and erased the deficit in the final race at Homestead-Miami to capture his second Chase Championship, and as mentioned previously, Brad Keselowski sat seven points behind Jimmie Johnson entering this race last season. So, will it be Jimmie Johnson flipping the trend over the last three seasons to exit the 8th Chase race and not look back, or will it be Matt Kenseth keeping the streak alive to take the trophy next weekend and erasing the seven-point deficit over the next two weeks?

As far as Phoenix, specifically, its 100% advantage Jimmie Johnson this week if you’re looking at the career histories at Phoenix. Johnson leads the series in six loop stats, (Average Running Position, Driver Rating, Fastest Laps Run, Average Green Flag Speed, and Quality Passes) he’s had top-five finishes in 12 of the last 14 races at Phoenix International Raceway, and far and away owns the better record than Matt Kenseth in career victories, top-fives, top-tens, average finish, and laps led. Also keep in mind, Matt Kenseth’s last top five finish at the desert one-miler was all the way back in 2007, his one and only win (three less than Jimmie Johnson) at PIR came in 2002, and his average finish is 17.2, so not only is Kenseth battling the Goliath named Jimmie Johnson this week, but he’s battling an Achilles heel of his own this weekend.

Enough about the points battle, on to my picks this week…

Winner Pick

I may be completely out of material for my winner pick this week, outside of practice and qualifying…you guessed it, tough not to like Jimmie Johnson this week. He was fastest in practice on Friday, broke the track record in qualifying to capture the pole for Sunday’s AdvoCare 500, and carries the momentum of last week’s perfect win. Seriously, Johnson scored a perfect 150 Driver Rating in his dominating win last week at Texas Motor Speedway, the fourth ever perfect Driver Rating in Chase history.

Denny Hamlin commented on the state of the No.48 team following Friday’s qualifying session, “I think everyone in the garage kind of knew (the No.48 team) could turn it up at will”. Joey Logano also commented on how the Hedrick Motorsports team is in “kill mode”, Logano says “(Johnson) has that next notch and extra speed that nobody else can find. His intensity level picks up.”

Well boys, I’m right there with you this week and even though I didn’t find a header in the stats column entitled “kill mode”, I’m going with the overwhelming favorite, and now pole-sitter Jimmie Johnson this week. One piece of history besides Johnson’s impressive history at PIR that I do have to help my cause this week is the fact that seven of the 34 NASCAR Sprint Cup races at Phoenix have been won from starting positions on the front row….not that I need any help in making my point this week.

Dark Horse Pick

Now, if you’ve been listening to my preview of the race each week with Greg on the Prime Sports Network, you may have noticed an ongoing trend since mid-June or so. Each time when we reach the time to talk about Denny Hamlin, you’ve probably heard me laugh or say “steer clear of Denny this week”. Well, this week I have a bit different take on Denny Hamlin for a few reasons.
Number one, Denny Hamlin has been coming around down the stretch here in the Chase, and is certainly a far cry away from where he was at a couple months back. Three top 5’s in the last four races mark’s Hamlin’s best stretch of runs since he ran second at Darlington, finished fourth in the Coke 600, and finished eighth in the June Pocono race. He’s climbing back to relevancy in the latter stages of this year’s Chase, and will use these remaining two races this season to springboard his team into the 2014 season.

The number two reason for picking Denny Hamlin is his career history, not only at Phoenix but as a top tier driver in the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series. Since his first full season in the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series in 2006, Denny Hamlin has managed to find Victory Lane at least once in each of his seven full seasons in the Cup series. Out of the two remaining racetracks this season, Phoenix is certainly the better chance for Hamlin to keep his streak alive. He’s got an average finish of 5.8 in the last five races at PIR, including a win in 2012, three additional top 5’s, 116 total laps led, and an average driver rating of 104.2 over that same five-race stretch, so Hamlin has the recent stats worth a look this week.

Adding to my statement this week is the stat I mentioned above….over 20% of the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series races at PIR have been won from starting spots on the front row, and Denny Hamlin just happens to be starting second on Sunday. Not only did Denny qualify well, but he also practiced well on Friday to earn my nod as the Dark Horse play of the week.

That’s all for this week, so until we head to South Florida for the 2013 Grand Finale….You Stay Classy NASCAR NATION!

November 9, 2013
Two Champions, Two Races, One Victor

NASCAR is gearing up for a duel in the desert with the penultimate event of the longest season in sports just a few days away. With 3rd place Kevin Harvick facing a 40 point deficit, this title bout has become a showdown between two proven champions and worthy adversaries. Jimmie Johnson is seeking a 6th title which would only further solidify his place among racing’s immortals while Matt Kenseth hopes to secure a second championship ten years after his first. The two went into Texas deadlocked and despite the now seven point advantage Jimmie Johnson holds, it’s nearly impossible to ascertain who will emerge victorious when the checkered flag falls in Miami.

Phoenix International Raceway

Jimmie Johnson vs. Matt Kenseth

20 starts vs. 22 starts

6.4 av. finish vs. 17.3 av. finish

4 wins vs. 1 win

13 T5’s vs. 5 T5’s

16 T10s vs. 9 T10’s

932 laps led vs. 212 laps led

Homestead Miami Speedway

Jimmie Johnson vs. Matt Kenseth

12 starts vs. 13 starts

15.3 av. finish vs. 17.6 av. finish

0 wins vs. 1 win

4 T5’s vs. 3 T5’s

7 T10’s vs.5 T10’s

99 laps led vs. 305 laps led

The stats say that Jimmie will most likely augment his points lead at Phoenix and that it could go either way at Homestead. As Matt Kenseth has proven on more than one occasion this year though, the stats mean very little in the whole scheme of things now that he’s with JGR. We went to Martinsville and most were ready to just hand 5-time the grandfather clock before the race even commenced but at the end of the day, Kenseth had shocked us all by retaking the points lead after out-performing Johnson in what has become his playground. At Texas, the pendulum swung back in the 48’s favor and the gap between these future HOF’ers grew to seven points.

To put it in perspective, Jimmie Johnson didn’t even have one championship to his credit the last time Kenseth won a title nor did the chase even exist so I guess you could say that JGR’s newest edition is starving for another Cup. The way this chase has gone, it seems that every time one of these titans of NASCAR outdoes one, the other steps up to the plate the following weekend evening the score. If that pattern persists, we may see a deadlock at the top of the standings going into the finale; a track the two seem evenly matched at based on previous races.

I see one of two scenario’s unfolding in the penultimate event at PIR; either Jimmie Johnson extends his points lead by a few markers or Kenseth digs deep and washes away the small, but crucial separation between the two at the moment. Seven points may not seem like a lot (and it isn’t), but check out this stat regarding the 2013 chase…

Chase Race #1: Matt Kenseth gains 8pts on Jimmie Johnson

Chase Race #2: Matt Kenseth gains 7pts on Jimmie Johnson

Chase Race #3: Jimmie Johnson gains 10pts on Matt Kenseth

Chase Race #4: Jimmie Johnson gains 5pts on Matt Kenseth

Chase Race #5: Matt Kenseth gains 1pt on Jimmie Johnson

Chase Race #6: Jimmie Johnson gains 8pts on Matt Kenseth

Chase Race #7: Matt Kenseth gains 4pts on Jimmie Johnson

Chase Race #8: Jimmie Johnson gains 7pts on Matt Kenseth

The largest points swing in this entire chase between Kenseth and Johnson was when Jimmie gained 10 points on Matt at Dover. In my honest opinion, if Matt loses anymore ground at Phoenix, he won’t be able to win the championship without Johnson being plagued by problems with the kind of results these guys have been laying down on a weekly basis. I mean they are making 6th place finishes look like bad days! It is imperative that Kenseth chips at least a couple points off of Jimmie’s lead heading into Homestead where fate will probably have the two stuck together the whole day so if he’s trailing by too much, a win may not even be enough to secure him the crown if his title rival is close by.

This clash of the titans is sure to come down to the wire and I believe it will be just as epic and riveting as the duel between Stewart and Edwards back in 2011. These two have been performing at a level that everyone, including their own teammates can only dream of and I don’t see either one of these rock solid racers fumbling in the final two events. Jimmie Johnson and Matt Kenseth are interchangeable with their demeanor, their driving style and their raw talent behind the wheel of a race car. They can’t be rattled by mind games, they can’t force the other into a mistake, neither has an obvious weakness or Achilles Heel if you will. They are near infallible. I obviously can’t foretell a mechanical failure or blown tire but I don’t see this one coming down to a foolish mistake by one or the other but rather an on-track battle that ends with one prevailing by the slightest of margins in an enthralling dogfight for the coveted Sprint Cup championship.

Additional notes:

The stats say that Jimmie will most likely augment his points lead at Phoenix and that it could go either way at Homestead. The odds are certainly in Jimmie’s favor too as Bwin.com see him as their favorite for Sunday’s race. As Matt Kenseth has proven on more than one occasion this year though, the stats mean very little in the whole scheme of things now that he’s with JGR. We went to Martinsville and most were ready to just hand 5-time the grandfather clock before the race even commenced but at the end of the day, Kenseth had shocked us all by retaking the points lead after out-performing Johnson in what has become his playground. At Texas, the pendulum swung back in the 48′s favor and the gap between these future HOF’ers grew to seven points.

November 6, 2013

Hot 20 over the Chase Eight – Good just isn’t good enough when great is what it takes in the Chase

Average a Top Ten finish and you are doing good. Very good. Yet, good is not good enough when it comes to the Chase. Such is the case when there are those who are running great.

Over the past eight Chase events, Jimmie Johnson is averaging better than a fifth place finish. Matt Kenseth has a couple of wins and an average result of just over sixth place. Mere mortals can not compete against that, at least not until someone develops clay feet and returns to earth. If there is any Kryptonite out there, it better turn up at Phoenix and/or Homestead if it is going to do any good for those who have been, well, just good.

Kevin Harvick has been damn good in the Chase. In fact, he would be considered great if not for those other two boys. Dale Earnhardt Jr has done better than a tenth place average. If not for that damn engine blowing up in Chicago.

Ordinarily, during the opening 26 races of the season, Kyle Busch, Jeff Gordon, and Clint Bowyer would have been very pleased. If this had been their first eight, and not their last, they would have thought themselves walking in tall cotton. Even Jamie McMurray and Jeff Burton, both outside the ten best in the Chase events, would have had cause for optimism. Unfortunately for them, this is the time of year when good just is not good enough. Not even very good cuts the mustard.

So, unless bad things happen to good…er…great people at the top of the leader board, there are just two names being considered for etching onto the trophy. Then again, if Junior, Kyle, and Jeff can find themselves outside the Top 30 in a race, there is always a chance that great over eight might not be good enough, either. That is why we will be watching the action from Phoenix on Sunday and why Harvick is still optimistic he could yet leave Homestead, well, happy.

	Driver	Wins	T-5	T-10	Points	Ave. Finish	Best	Worst
1	Jimmie Johnson	2	6	7	330	4.87	1	13
2	Matt Kenseth	2	5	6	320	6.12	1 (x2)	20
3	Kevin Harvick	1	2	6	296	7.75	1	20
4	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.	0	3	6	280	9.75	2	35
5	Kyle Busch	0	5	5	278	10.12	2	34
6	Jeff Gordon	1	3	5	273	11.00	1	38
7	Clint Bowyer	0	1	5	273	10.50	3	17
8	Greg Biffle	0	1	3	266	11.12	3	16 (x2)
9	Joey Logano	0	3	3	248	13.62	3 (x2)	37
10	Brad Keselowski	1	2	4	248	14.00	1	37
11	Kurt Busch	0	2	2	246	13.37	2	21
12	Jamie McMurray	1	2	3	245	14.00	1	31
13	Martin Truex, Jr.	0	0	2	231	15.25	8	22
14	Jeff Burton	0	0	1	230	15.62	8	24
15	Ryan Newman	0	0	5	224	16.62	8 (x2)	38
16	Carl Edwards	0	1	3	220	17.00	5	37
17	Paul Menard	0	1	2	218	16.75	4	24
18	Ricky Stenhouse, Jr.	0	1	2	211	17.75	3	31
19	Kasey Kahne	0	2	2	209	18.37	2	37
20	Denny Hamlin	0	0	3	204	18.62	7 (x2)	38

November 6, 2013

Monica Palumbo Primed and Ready for Her Favorite Event NASCAR After The Lap™

For the fifth year in a row, NASCAR After The Lap™ will be back in Las Vegas during champion’s week and at least one of the co-hosts Monica Palumbo is primed and ready for her ‘favorite’ event.

Palumbo, former Miss Sprint Cup and current reporter for NASCAR Race Hub on Fox Sports 1, will be sharing the hosting duties with Marty Smith of ESPN. Palumbo will be handling the fans in the crowd, while Smith will be managing the drivers on stage.

The event this year will take place on Thursday, December 5^th at 5:00 PM at the Pearl Palms Concert Theater inside the Palms Casino Hotel.

“I actually worked NASCAR After The Lap™ twice already and it’s my favorite event because the guys are so loose and it’s an intimate setting,” Palumbo said. “You can see it on nascar.com but it’s not televised so I feel like it’s a little bit more special.”

“The drivers are really showing off their personalities that you don’t necessarily get to see throughout the season,” Palumbo continued. “It’s just one of my favorite events.”

Palumbo advised that her role at the event will be one of liaison between the crowd, sponsors and the drivers, however, the emphasis from her perspective is indeed on the fans in this unique event.

“It’s a very fan-friendly event and that’s one thing NASCAR is really big on,” Palumbo said. “It’s about the fans first.”

“They are going to have notecards so the audience can submit their questions in advance,” Palumbo continued. “Then I’ll go through them and pick out the questions to be asked.”

“So, I’ll be out there taking questions from the audience and making sure everybody has a good time.”

Palumbo is also primed and ready for the sweepstakes and giveaways that accompany the NASCAR After The Lap™ event. This year, fans can win an all-inclusive VIP trip to Las Vegas for the event, trips to either the 2014 Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte or the 2014 Ford Ecoboost 400 at Homestead-Miami Speedway, as well as the grand prize, a 2014 Ford F-150 Tremor.

“I’m really excited about the big sweepstakes,” Palumbo said. “They’re giving away a 2014 Ford Tremor, which is pretty awesome.”

“Coca Cola and Ford are both giving away tickets to the Coca Cola 600 and the Ford Champions Week for 2014,” Palumbo continued. “So, the sweepstakes winners will be there and they will also have a shot to win a car.”

“We’ll be doing that in the audience as well, which is pretty cool to get a free car.”

Palumbo is also primed and ready to get to Las Vegas, a place that she assesses as ‘perfect’ for this type of fan-interactive post-season event.

“Vegas itself just equals celebration to me,” Palumbo said. “So, I feel like it is a fun event.”

“Everybody is so relaxed,” Palumbo continued. “The season is over and it’s a time for celebration.”

So, who is Palumbo predicting will be in the champion’s seat for the event and at the head table come banquet time?

“It’s definitely down to Jimmie Johnson and Matt Kenseth now and we know how well they are both running,” Palumbo said. “We know that Jimmie is so great at Phoenix so it’s really a toss-up between the two.”

“I can’t even bet on either one,” Palumbo continued. “I’m ready to put my money down on one but I can’t because I don’t want to lose.”

“Everybody is on pins and needles because we know Jimmie can do it obviously,” Palumbo said. “But Matt Kenseth is really giving him a run for his money.”

“I think the fans love seeing that and the two drivers are definitely keeping it exciting.”

Palumbo is also primed and ready for the NASCAR After The Lap™ event because of where the proceeds go, helping individuals, children and families in need through the NASCAR Foundation, a nonprofit charitable organization.

“The tickets are only $20 and all the money, one hundred percent of the proceeds, goes to the NASCAR Foundation, which is unreal,” Palumbo said. “It’s probably one of the best charity events where all of the drivers are together in a relaxed way, cutting up with each other, joking about incidents that have happened during the year, and some have even gotten up and danced.”

“It’s a great event to get the drivers out of their element,” Palumbo continued. “There is not an event like this throughout the whole season.”

“This is a one of a kind,” Palumbo said. “You might have the drivers together for media day but they are so focused on that race.”

“This is the end of the season and they can all breathe,” Palumbo continued. “They’re all ready to have a good time, hang out with the fans and answer their questions.”

“There is just nothing like it.

Palumbo is not alone in her enthusiasm for the NASCAR After The Lap™ event.

“Celebrating its fifth consecutive season, NASCAR After The Lap has evolved into one of the most talked about events of NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Champion’s Week™ and provides two long-standing partners, Ford and Coca-Cola, a valuable platform to connect with our brand-loyal fan base,” Norris Scott, NASCAR vice president of marketing, said. “It is an event unlike any other in sports that gives our fans the chance to see the drivers with their helmets off and their guard down.”

“Over the last five years as event sponsor, Ford has enjoyed some remarkable and very unpredictable moments with our NASCAR drivers,” Tim Duerr, motorsports marketing manager for Ford Racing, said. “The NASCAR after the Lap Sweepstakes continues to provide Ford with a great avenue to engage with fans by offering them a chance to not only win a trip out to Las Vegas, but also an opportunity to go home with a brand-new 2014 Ford F150 Tremor.”

“This sponsorship delivers results to Ford on many levels.”

“As a long-time partner, Coca-Cola is proud to celebrate the 2013 season with the stars of NASCAR at this year’s NASCAR After The Lap,” Ben Reiling, director of motorsports for Coca-Cola North America Group, said. “In our fifth year as an event sponsor, we are offering fans a stellar experience to interact directly with members of our Coca-Cola Racing Family and a chance to win a trip to our marquee event, the Coca-Cola 600.”

“We’re looking forward to the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Champion’s Week and it’s definitely going to be a wild ride.”

For more information or to purchase tickets, fans can visit www.NASCARafterthelap.com.

For fans unable to attend in person, NASCAR.com will offer a live stream of the event.

November 5, 2013
NASCAR Top-10 Power Rankings: Texas

Note: The quotes in this article are fictional.

1. Jimmie Johnson: Johnson led 255 of 334 laps in a dominant win at Texas, his sixth win of the year. Johnson now leads Matt Kenseth, who finished fourth, by seven points in the Sprint Cup points standings.

“I had the same seven-point lead after Texas last November,” Johnson said, “and didn’t win the championship. I’m hoping this is one time when I don’t repeat.”

2. Matt Kenseth: Kenseth finished fourth in the AAA Texas 500, slowed by a pit road speeding penalty midway through the race. Jimmie Johnson won and took a seven-point lead in the points standings.

“I’m neither throwing in the towel,” Kenseth said, “nor am I waving the white flag. Ask anyone, except Carl Edwards, and they’ll tell you there’s no surrender in me.”

3. Dale Earnhardt, Jr.: Earnhardt took the runner-up spot at Texas, following Hendrick teammate Jimmie Johnson across the line. It was Earnhardt’s third second-place finish of the Chase.

“There have been a lot of great drivers who have never won a Cup,” Earnhardt said. “Hopefully, I can put myself in that category some day.”

4. Jeff Gordon: One week after victory at Martinsville, disaster struck for Gordon at Texas, as a blown tire on lap 74 sent him into the wall. He eventually finished 38th, 187 laps down, and tumbled to sixth in the points, 69 out of first.

“Are you sure this is the AAA 500 and not the NRA 500?” Gordon said. “Because my championship hopes are ‘shot.’”

5 .Kevin Harvick: Harvick finished eighth at Texas and is now third in the points standings, 40 out of first.

“Will I be happier at Stewart-Haas Racing?” Harvick said. “Well, as Richard Childress has clearly stated, it’s all relative.”

6. Clint Bowyer: Bowyer came home tenth in the AAA Texas 500, posting his 18th top 10 of the year. He is seventh in the Sprint Cup points standings, 69 out of first.

“This race in Texas wasn’t sponsored by the NRA,” Bowyer said. “In hindsight, maybe the race in Richmond should have been sponsored by the NRA, because there was a second amendment made to the Chase field afterwards.”

7. Kyle Busch: Busch, who won at Texas in April, finished 13th on Sunday in the AAA 500. Like many drivers, Busch’s day was hindered by a blown tire suffered early in the race.

“The blown tire put me in a hole early,” Busch said. “I felt much like a North Carolina state trooper chasing me, because I was playing catch up.”

8. Greg Biffle: Biffle finished 12th at Texas, leading one lap after starting 18th. He is eighth in the points standings, 73 behind Jimmie Johnson.

“I apologized to Johnson for my actions at Martinsville,” Biffle said. “It was only the second most controversial ‘spin’ move in NASCAR this year. Maybe I shouldn’t have grabbed Jimmie from behind, but that’s where I always seem to find myself.”

9. Joey Logano: Logano finished third in the AAA Texas 500, posting his first top-5 result since a fourth at Kansas in early October.

“It felt good to run with the big dogs,” Logano said, “instead of from them.”

10. Brad Keselowski: Keselowski led 30 laps and finished sixth in the AAA Texas 500 at Texas, one day after winning the Nationwide Series race.

“I may not repeat as champion,” Keselowski said, “but the future is bright for this 29-year-old. I see nothing but clear, sunny skies ahead, because the ‘reign’ is over.”

November 5, 2013