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Matty’s Picks 2013 – Vol. 13 Toyota/Save Mart 350 – Sonoma Raceway – June 23, 2013

On to the first of two road course races for the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series this week, Sonoma being the 1.99 mile road course on Sears Point this week. Possibly one of the best things about heading to Sonoma this week, is the track is a destination not only for California’s NASCAR fans, but also many racing enthusiasts in general.

Sonoma Raceway attracts folks to its 11-turn stadium-like road course, because of it’s technical turns, elevation changes, and fantastic scenery. The blind corner entries, number of shifts, and finesse it takes to get around Sonoma efficiently make it one of the most difficult tracks to master for the drivers. In fact, all but one of the nine active NASCAR Sprint Cup winners at Sonoma participated in at least one or more races at the 1.99 miler, before visiting Victory Lane. Juan Pablo Montoya won at Sonoma in his rookie season and his first appearance, after starting 32nd, also the deepest in the field a race winner has ever started, back in 2007.

Starting towards the front of the field at Sonoma has paid its dividends over the years, as 18 of 24 races have been won from a top-10 starting position. That trend hasn’t been as significant as of late with 3 of the last 6 race winners at Sonoma have started from outside the top-10. This weekend’s race is going to be one to watch with the delta shrinking between the road course specialists and the top guys in the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series and this new Gen6 car producing more down force than we’ve ever seen.

Michigan Recap

I only made one pick last week, and I went with the wrong Roush-Fenway driver. I picked Carl Edwards on Thursday last week (along with Greg Biffle as my number two pick, but failed to mention him in my column last week), which was looking even better after last Friday’s qualifying session. Edwards led some laps last Sunday, but the caution flag waived just after a mid-race green flag pit stop, and Carl spent the entire second-half of the race trying to gain back the track position he lost in the shuffle. He fought his way back to an eighth place finish last week, netting me a top 10.

Sonoma Picks

Winner Pick
Marcos Ambrose and Juan Montoya are the obvious picks this week at Sonoma, and when deciding between the two, do keep in mind some of the luck Ambrose has had at Sonoma. For instance, remember back to 2010 when Ambrose opened up a 2+ second lead over Jimmie Johnson, when Brad Kesolowski spun and stalled in Turn 7, bringing out the caution with just 6 laps left. While trying to conserve fuel under caution, Ambrose shut down the engine and eventually lost pace with the caution car. He lost the race under caution in 2010, and luck just hasn’t been on his side at Sonoma over the years.

It’s because of Ambrose’s misfortune that I am leaning towards Juan this week. Montoya is going through the best stretch of his season, and the fact that he will probably need two wins to secure a Wild Card for the Chase, is why I’m going to take Juan this week. He won in his first ever appearance at Sonoma back in 2007, and has been lighting up the charts so far this weekend. Montoya was second to Ambrose in the first practice session on Friday and fifth-fastest in happy hour, and rides a string of solid finishes into a track he’s been successful at over the years. He’s the guy to watch on Sunday.

Dark Horse Pick

This is a true longshot pick this week. Sonoma ranks as Jamie McMurray’s 6th-best track, and he’s inside the top-10 in a few of the traditional loop stats including green flag passes and average green flag speed. The practice speeds look even better as McMurray was 5th fastest in first practice yesterday, and followed up that practice session being shown second on the leaderboard after Happy Hour. This team has been coming around as of late, and could be a guy to knock off some of the road course ringers this week.

That’s all for this week so until we head to the Bluegrass State…You Stay Classy NASCAR NATION!

June 22, 2013
Matty’s Picks 2013 – Vol. 11 Quicken Loans 400 – Michigan International Speedway – June 16, 2013

I’m back after my yearly boycott of one of the two Pocono races, and I come back amidst a shake up in both the number 1 seed for The Chase, and a hot streak out of the Stewart-Hass stable has mixed up the standings for the two Wild Card spots at the end of the season. Matt Kenseth held the advantage for the top seed in The Chase with three early victories but now he’s got a companion in fellow champion Jimmie Johnson, who recorded his third win of the year last Sunday at Pocono Raceway. Remember, each win in the regular season is worth three bonus points when the Chase begins in mid-September, so winning races now can really help our your cause in September.

Kenseth, a two-time Michigan winner, arguably has been the season’s fastest commodity leading 11 of 14 races. The 2003 champ’s pace has sometimes proved too fast for his JGR Toyota, which has suffered two engine-related DNFs – something to watch for this weekend, as Michigan tends to be rough on engines.

Johnson peaked early, winning the Daytona 500. Nothing’s happened over the next 13 races to suggest that’s anything but a good thing for the Hendrick Motorsports team. In fact, his best vote of confidence comes from crew chief Chad Knaus following Sunday’s dominant victory at Pocono:

“Jimmie and I are in a really good spot. Jimmie is switched on right now,” said Knaus in the post race press-conference. “He’s as good or better than I’ve ever seen him.”

An important stat for Jimmie’s start to this 2013 season is in four of his five championship seasons, he won two or more races through the first Pocono event – he’s won 3 so far this season. Considering he has finished among the top five in 7 of this season’s 14 races and led a combined 271 laps in his past two starts, I think this team is really clicking, and when this team is clicking, WATCH OUT.

Taking a look at the other end of The Chase field, you’ve got red-hot Tony Stewart. Stewart’s latest feat is disproving a mysterious theory that the current points system works against recovery from an early season filled with misfortune. It took Tony just 3 races to erase that misconception.
Tony left Darlington on Mother’s Day weekend ranked 21st in the standings, but he enters Father’s Day weekend in 13th, but more importantly just 17 points out of the 10th spot in points. In just 3 races, Stewart has closed the gap on 10th by 45 points with 3 solid finishes, including the win at Dover.

As far as Michigan goes, the track itself is a 2-mile D-shaped oval situated in the “Irish Hills” of Michigan. It was previously known as the “sister track” to Texas World Speedway, not to be confused with Texas Motor Speedway of course, which was actually used as a blueprint for the construction of California Speedway. Michigan is recognized as one of motorsports’ premier facilities because of its wide surface and fast speeds. Because there are no restrictor plates at Michigan, it’s considered the fastest track in NASCAR as corner entry speeds are anywhere from 215 to 220 MPH. There’s a lot of room to race at Michigan, creating a lot of passing and great opportunities for 3 & 4 wide restarts.

Michigan Picks

Winner Pick
On Wednesday, I picked Carl Edwards while previewing Sunday’s Quicken Loans 400 with Greg of the Prime Sports Network. It’s a pick I am happy with considering 16 drivers have won from the pole at Michigan, making it the winningest starting spot in the field. Edwards took the pole on Friday with a qualifying speed topping 202 MPH.

On top of taking the pole on Friday, Edwards boasts the series-best average finish of 8.2 over the course of his career, the second-best average running position, over 2,500 laps run in the top 15, and a Driver Rating of 105.2 which is good enough for 3rd best on the list of active drivers.
Even in the horrific 2012 season for Carl Edwards, he managed to finish 11th in the June race after starting 42nd, and 6th after he started outside the front row. Considering his success here over the years, I still like Carl as a pick this week.

Dark Horse Pick
I didn’t have a longshot on Wednesday during the preview show with Greg, and unfortunately don’t have one for this Saturday Pick’s column this week. To me, there is so much talent starting at the front of the field this week, the top-10 finishing spots are going to be claimed by the top guys. I don’t see too much room for any drivers to “shock the world” this week in Michigan.

A melancholy Godspeed this week to Jason Leffler, who passed following a Sprint Car crash in Bridgeport, NJ earlier this week. I was a fan of Leffler throughout his career, and am saddened by the loss of one of the true racers of the NASCAR community.

That’s all for this week, so until we head to wine country…You Stay Classy NASCAR Nation!

June 16, 2013
Matty’s Picks 2013 – Vol. 10 FedEx 400 Benefiting Autism Speaks – Dover International Speedway – June 2, 2013

The Monster Mile is up next this season, and if Sunday’s race is anything like the previous twelve races this season, we’re in for a show. Sunday’s FedEx 400 Benefiting Autism Speaks also marks the midway point of the regular season for the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series and just one year ago, nine of the top-10 drivers in the points standings leaving this June race at The Monster Mile ended up in the field of twelve in the Chase for the Sprint Cup.

On the horizon this week at Dover, five-time champ Jimmie Johnson looks to unseat legends Bobby Allison and Richard Petty at the top of the all-time win list at Dover International Speedway. He is the defending race winner and scored his seventh win at the Monster Mile in Delaware’s capital city.

Sunday also marks the return of key personnel from the Penske camp at a time when defending series champ, Brad Kesolowski needs them the most.

Last Sunday’s Coca-Cola 600 marked Bad Brad’s first DNF since the 2012 Daytona 500, and sitting tenth in points with not a win to his name yet in 2013, this team needs to get moving to punch their ticket to the big dance at the end of the year. Crew chief Paul Wolfe and other members of Penske Racing will make their return to the pit box this weekend, following their suspension stemming from the April 13th race at Texas. It’s been only two points races since Wolfe was ousted by NASCAR, but in those two races, Kesolowski finished 32nd at Darlington and 36th last week at Charlotte. There couldn’t be a better time for Wolfe’s return and Brad has done his part so far this weekend for a solid finish, qualifying the Blue Deuce in 8th for tomorrow’s FedEx 400 Benefiting Autism Speaks.

I was off last week and with nothing to recap, we’ll roll on to my pick’s for Dover.

Dover Picks

Winner Pick
Had I written this column on Wednesday, it would have been tough to pass up Jimmie Johnson’s immaculate record at The Monster Mile, but it’s Saturday and Johnson hasn’t won a race at Dover after starting outside the top-10 since completing the season-sweep at Dover in the fall race in 2002. Jimmie is not my pick this week.

There is no other driver hotter than Matt Kenseth right now, and as a two-time Dover winner, there is nothing to shake a stick at about this team this weekend. He’s notched eight top-5 finishes in eight of his last ten starts at The Monster Mile, his win in 2011 included in that number. Considering the top four starting spots for tomorrow’s FedEx 400 Benefiting Autism Speaks are Toyotas, I think I’ve gone with the right manufacturer for the win tomorrow. Kenseth is also racing for Joe Gibbs Racing in today’s NASCAR Nationwide Series’ 5-Hour Energy 200, gaining valuable seat time at a track as difficult as any to master. This guy is hot and he’s returning to a place he likes and has won before.

Dark Horse Pick

I’m not sure if a guy with “Concrete Carl” as one of his many nicknames can be considered a Dark Horse, but he’s flown under the radar all season, despite sitting second in points. The current odds show Carl at 12 to 1, but I think those are fantastic odds given the fact he boasts the series’ best average finish (8.3) at Dover. He has been one of the best on these surfaces between the NASCAR Nationwide Series and NASCAR Sprint Cup series, and in the fall, Edwards finished fifth despite the horrific 2012 season he was having. Concrete Carl is a contender this week and he will roll off 18th tomorrow at The Monster Mile.

That’s all for this week, so until we head to the Tricky Triangle, you stay classy NASCAR NATION!

June 1, 2013
Matty’s Picks 2013 – Vol. 9 Sprint All-Star Race – Charlotte Motor Speedway – May 18, 2013

We’re 1/3 of the way through the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series season, and it’s onto Speedweeks at Charlotte. A million bucks is up for grabs this week (actually 2 million), and unlike the NHL, the NBA, and the MLB, we’re already on to the All-Star weekend.

There have been 28 previous All-Star races, all but one being held at Charlotte Motor Speedway, the 1986 event was held at Atlanta Motor Speedway and won by Bill Elliott. The first All-Star race was won by Darrell Waltrip back in 1985 amongst a field of 12. This year, 22 cars will take the green flag of the 2013 All-Star race, 19 of those divers have already locked up a spot in the field.

Here’s how the starting field for the drivers that will be making the start in the main event tonight:
– NASCAR Sprint Cup Series points race winners in 2012 and 2013
– NASCAR Sprint All-Star Race winners in the last 10 years
– Drivers who are past NASCAR Sprint Cup Series champions in the previous 10 years
– The top-two finishers in the Sprint Showdown, the 40-lap race that precedes the NASCAR Sprint All-Star Race
– The top Sprint Fan Vote driver who finishes the Showdown and whose car is in “raceable” condition.

Like last year, the All-Star race will consist of five segments – four 20-lap segments and a 10-lap shootout. Unlike last year, the running the running order at the completion of the fourth segment (Lap 80) will be repositioned behind the Pace Car, based on the drivers’ average finish for the first four segments – putting a premium on strong finishes throughout the entire event.

The new lineup will be placed directly behind the caution car prior to the opening of pit road for a mandatory four-tire pit stop, yielding the spotlight from the drivers to the pit crews.
The order of the cars returning to the track will determine the starting order of the final 10-lap shootout. Running order ties will be broken by the finish of the fourth segment.
I am a fan of the new setup as NASCAR has done a nice job of eliminating the sandbagging factor we’ve seen in previous events, by emphasizing strong finishes in each of the first four 20-lap segments.

Darlington Recap

I will keep this brief this week as the intro section is rather long, and I have little to brag about from last week. I chose Kasey Kahne as the winner last week, a pick that looked like a jackpot throughout the middle to late stages, but with 33 laps to go, my chances went south. Whether Kyle Busch got into Kahne, or if he only got close enough to take the air off the No.5 car, this little rivalry heating up between the two drivers is going to be something to watch over the next few weeks. The incident left Kahne settling with a 17th place finish.
As for my Dark Horse, Ryan Newman, it was the fourth time I picked him this season and he did ok for me for the first time this year. Newman ran a strong race, avoiding trouble throughout and finished 10th.

All-Star Picks

Winner Pick
On Thursday in my preview of tonight’s All-Star race with Greg Depalma on The Prime Sports Network, I picked a guy who is one of the favorites tonight, despite never winning a race at Charlotte Motor Speedway.

This is a Kyle Busch style race, with nothing to lose and two million bucks at stake, you can bet that the floorboards of the No.18 car are going to be worn out at the end of the race on Saturday Night.

He has never won an all-star event in 7 tries despite starting on the pole three times and never won at Charlotte in 26 tries. In spite of never winning at Charlotte, Kyle has been very strong throughout the course of his career and since 2008, he has finished outside the top 8 just twice in 14 races. Kyle’s Driver Rating has never been less than 100, besides the two accidents in 2010 and 2011 since the spring of 2007.

He has lead laps in 20 of 26 starts at Charlotte, and in the fourth starting spot tonight, Kyle has put himself in position for an early lead. He was close in 2011 to the cool million when he started on the pole for his third time, but Carl Edwards was the guy to beat that night. I still like my pick today.

Dark Horse Pick

He might not be a Dark Horse now, but on Thursday he was a 30 to 1 longshot to win the All-Star race tonight. An important stat to mention with this Dark Horse pick is that Eight of the 28 (28.5%) NASCAR Sprint All-Star Races have been won from the front row: four from the pole and four from second-place.

The guy I picked on Thursday as a “quiet pick” to win the million bucks was Kyle’s brother, Kurt. Kurt Busch’s overall All-Star Race record is: 11 starts, one win, four top-fives, six top-10s, one pole and 30 laps led. His average start is 8.1 and average finish 10.8.

He followed his 2010 All-Star Race win with a victory the following week in the Coca-Cola 600 and is one of four active drivers to have won the Charlotte double. The others are Jeff Gordon (1997), Jimmie Johnson (2003) and Kasey Kahne (2008). Busch qualified for this year’s Sprint All-Star Race as both a former winner of the event and as a former NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Champion (2004).

Kurt will be starting outside of Carl Edwards on the front row tonight, and is my quiet sleeper pick this week.

That’s all for this week, so until the longest race of the season next week, You Stay Classy NASCAR NATION!

May 18, 2013
Matty’s Picks 2013 – Vol. 8 Darlington Raceway – Bojangles’ Southern 500 – May 11, 2013

Darlington Raceway needs no introduction this week. Its the 64th annual Bojangles’ Southern 500 and there’s a reason why the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series has continued to come back to the track Too Tough To Tame year after year. It’s NASCAR’s oldest paved superspeedway, and over the years has become one of my favorite stops on the series. There’s something about the history, the heritage, and the excitement about the racing at Darlington that keeps me glued to the broadcast and puts Darlington on my bucket list.

Talladega Recap

Last weekend’s chaos at Talladega left me in rough shape, but the good news for me is that nobody saw David Ragan soaring to Victory Lane either. Scoring an unlikely win on the last lap of last week’s Aaron’s 499 with help from his teammate David Gilliland, was a shot in the arm for both David Ragan, Front Row Motorsports, and all the under-funded teams in the sport. It was a major confidence booster in the garage for teams not normally in the spotlight, being that the entire race was dominated by the big guns like Matt Kenseth and Jimmie Johnson. It was a “David takes down Goliath” last week at Talladega, but don’t expect the same this week at Darlington.

As for my picks last week, I went with defending NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Champion, Brad Kesolowski to win last week. Bad Brad made it through the mayhem of each of the big wrecks, but unfortunately had no help for a charge to the front following the rain delay and wound up finishing 15th.

As for my Dark Horse, Danica Patrick, a late race accident on lap 182 ended her long day of drafting. She missed a big accident early and waited out the three-hour rain only to be caught up in a late race crash on the backstretch when several cars began crashing in front of her. The incident put her out of the race, finishing in 33rd.

Darlington Picks

Winner Pick
On Wednesday while previewing tonight’s Bojangles’ Southern 500 with Greg Depalma on the Prime Sports Network, I picked Kasey Kahne to win, before the cars even hit the track in South Carolina. It’s a pick I still like after Kahne showed decent speed in practice and qualified the No.5 Time Warner Cable Chevrolet in the fourth starting spot. He enters Saturday Night’s race coming off consecutive top 10’s at Darlington Raceway, leading laps in 3 of the last 4 at The Lady In Black. Flashback to 2011, Kahne dominated the Southern 500 in his No.4 Red Bull Toyota, leading a race-high 124 laps, but a late race incident involving oil dropped on the track, collected a slue of solid race cars including Kahne. NASCAR failed to throw a caution, despite many drivers reporting oil on the track, a call that was looked at as controversial in many drivers eyes. Kahne has completed all but one lap in his 10 races at Darlington, and he’s put himself in position to pick up his first win at the historic track through a solid qualifying run on Friday.

Dark Horse Pick
On Wednesday, I liked Ryan Newman’s chances at The Lady In Black, but throughout the weekend we haven’t seen much speed out of the No.39 Quicken Loans Chevrolet. I thought he was the guy to look at who has flown under the radar with solid finishes at Darlington, including 6 top 10’s in the last 8 races at Darlington. He traditionally has qualified very well in South Carolina, notching one pole and starting outside the top 12 just twice in 14 starts. He’s got some work to do if he’s to end up in Victory Lane, but needs a solid finish for not only his Chase hopes, but to keep Stewart-Haas racing on the radar as a major player in the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series.

That’s all for this week, so until we head to Charlotte and All-Star Weekend, You Stay Classy NASCAR NATION!

May 11, 2013
Matty’s Picks 2013 – Vol. Talladega Superspeedway – Aaron’s 499 – May 5, 2013

Well, we roll on to Alabama today in the Aaron’s 499 at Talladega Superspeedway. Everyone knows the history, the wrecks, and the success at Talladega so I will save my speech this week and roll on to last week’s recap and a quick craps shoot as to who will win this thing.

Richmond Recap

I picked Kyle Busch early on last week, and with Kyle showing so much speed throughout the practice sessions and qualifying the No. 18 M&Ms Toyota in the eighth starting spot, I was looking pretty good for a win. Busch battled a loose racing condition through the first quarter of the 400-lap race, but still managed to pull into the top five. With each pit stop, the M&Ms crew was able to make improvements and Kyle would take the lead just past the half way point. Busch remained in the top 10 until lap 325 when the No. 14 of Tony Stewart got loose, collecting Jimmie Johnson and eventually Kyle Busch in the process. The M&Ms crew would repair damage to the front end of the car, but it was not enough to put the No. 18 back in the top 10. Kyle brought his damaged racecar home in 24th.
As for my Dark Horse last week, I chose another Joe Gibbs racing car, but Matt Kenseth would not have been a Dark Horse last week because of the season he has been having so far this season. It was the No. 11 car, driven last week by Brian Vickers as Denny Hamlin was not cleared by doctors to make his comeback last week from the compression fracture injury in his spine. Again, going into Saturday Night’s race, the No. 11 FedEx Delivery Manager Toyota looked like a solid Dark Horse. The JGR Toyota was fast in all practice sessions, and would start the race on the outside of the front row. Though he ran in the top 10 for the majority of the first half of the race, but when trying to make the car faster around the midway point, the car did not respond to adjustments. Vickers struggled back in traffic, being shown outside the top 20 in the latter half of the race. An incident with 80 laps to go involving Kasey Kahne and Mark Martin would finish off Vickers chances of winning last week, and my hopes of bringing home a solid Dark Horse finish. Vickers finished in 35th.

Talladega Picks

Well, it’s more of a craps shoot this week as far as who will win the race later this afternoon….but I have a couple cars in mind who have history on their side today at the world’s fastest racetrack.
Winner Pick
In April of 2009, Brad Kesolowski pulled off one of the biggest upsets in NASCAR history to earn his first career NASCAR Sprint Cup Series victory in the Aaron’s 499 at Talladega Superspeedway. He pushed Carl Edwards towards the front from fifth with just two laps to go. Coming out of turn four with the checkered flag waiving, Kesolowski and Edwards were one and two. When Edwards came to the bottom of the tri-oval, in an effort to block the Finch Racing Chevy, driven by Kesolowski, the Michigan-Native stood his ground and eventually put Edwards into the outside catch fence. It was one of the more spectacular finishes in Talladega history, and even more meaningful because it was the start of Kesolowski’s breakout in the NASCAR Sprint Cup series. Since his first win in his first start at Talladega in April of 2009, Kesolowski has finished outside the top 10 just twice in 7 races, and is also the defending race-winner. He was fastest in Happy Hour on Friday and will start the Blue Deuce in the 11th starting spot. Kesolowski has earned the respect of fellow drivers through his solid finishes on the restrictor-plate tracks, and he will have help when he breaks out of line in the final laps this afternoon.
Dark Horse Pick
She’s not really a Dark Horse because of her success at Speedweeks at Daytona in February, but Danica Patrick is a massive underdog yet again this week. She became the first female to claim a NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Pole, the first female to lead a green-flag lap in NASCAR history, and the first female to lead the Daytona 500 all at the other restrictor-plate track in Florida earlier this season. If there are any tracks Danica is comfortable on, it’s the restrictor-plate tracks because of her career in the Indy Racing League. She’s used to the flat out pack-style drafting and is comfortable in the car on these types of tracks. My only fear this week with the No. 10 team is if she will have help on the final laps of today’s Aaron’s 499. We saw her make a move in the late stages of February’s Daytona 500, but no driver would come to her rescue when she stepped out of line. It’s a long shot for Danica today, but the restrictor-plate tracks are the best shot she has of visiting Victory Lane this season.
That’s all for this Sunday edition of Matty’s picks, so until we head to Darlington…You Stay Classy NASCAR NATION!

May 5, 2013
Matty’s Picks 2013 – Vol. 6 Richmond International Raceway – Toyota Owners 400 – April 27, 2013

It doesn’t get much better than short-track racing under the lights at one of NASCAR’s oldest tracks. Richmond International Raceway has been a part of the tour since Lee Petty won the first NASCAR Grand National Division race at then Atlantic Rural Exposition Fairgrounds back in 1953, and each year proves why it has occupied two spots on the series schedule since 1959. Chevrolet leads the series in wins at Richmond with 35 victories, followed closely by Ford with 28, but Toyota has won 7 of the last 8 races at the three-quarter mile oval in Virginia’s capital city.

The story of the week surrounds the team of Matt Kenseth as NASCAR passed down one of its stiffest penalties in history as it slapped the No. 20 Joe Gibbs Racing team with a 50 point penalty, a $200,000 fine, and suspended Crew Chief Jason Ratcliff for the next seven races. NASCAR took everything away from the Dollar General team but the trophy from their win last week at Kansas. The garage was buzzing on Friday at RIR with responses to the penalty coming from Kenseth, Ratcliff, and team-owner, Joe Gibbs.

Kenseth said the penalties passed down from NASCAR were “grossly unfair” and expressed his concern for Ratcliff and Gibbs’ chances of winning the owner’s championship due to the penalties, “To crush Joe Gibbs like that and say he can’t win an owner’s championship with the 20 this year, I just can’t wrap my arms around that,” Kenseth said. “It just blows me away. The same for Jason Ratcliff. I don’t feel bad for myself at all, but for Jason and Joe, I couldn’t feel any worse. There are no more reputable, hard-working, honest guys than them two. I feel really bad for them.”

Well, the penalties haven’t slowed the pace of the No. 20 team, as Kenseth claimed his 10th career pole in 481 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series races. It’s his second of the season, first at Richmond International Raceway, and fifth top-10 start of 2013.

Richmond Picks

Nothing to recap from last week as I had an off week, so on to my picks for tonight’s Toyota Owners 400.

Winner Pick
On Wednesday, I joined Greg DePalma on the Prime Sports Network to preview tonight’s race from RIR. My pick before the cars unloaded and the starting lineup was set was Kyle Busch. He was the favorite on Wednesday going into the weekend, and with his 8th starting position, remains the favorite going into the race tonight. Busch lead late in the race last night in the NASCAR Nationwide Series’ Toyotacare 250, but was passed with 10 laps to go by eventual race-winner Brad Kesolowski.

Looking back at Kyle Busch’s stats in the Sprint Cup Series at Richmond, he’s won the past four spring races at Richmond, has finished in the top 5 in 12 of his 16 starts at the .75 mile short track, and out of the 23 tracks the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series visits each year, Richmond is his best. Kyle is the guy to beat this week.

Dark Horse Pick
The stand-in driver for the No. 11 FedEx Toyota team is Brian Vickers again this week. He has done a tremendous job in keeping the Joe Gibbs Racing team afloat in the absence of Denny Hamlin. Vickers qualified the No. 11 Toyota outside the front row for tonight’s Toyota Owners 400 and has shown a ton of speed in both the practice sessions on Friday, 5th fastest in first practice and 3rd in Happy Hour. Though Vickers has struggled throughout his career on the short tracks, he has finished in the top-10 in three of his last four short track starts, including a top-5 at Bristol last August.

I like the job Vickers has done so far in the Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota, and with a front-row starting position tonight, he’s put himself in position for a solid finish.

That’s all for this week, so until we strap on the restrictor plates….You Stay Classy NASCAR NATION!

April 27, 2013
Matty’s Picks 2013 – Vol. 5 Texas Motor Speedway – NRA 500 – April 13, 2013

Turn on the lights and turn up the heat this week as the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series races under the lights for the first time this season. Texas Motor Speedway needs no introduction as it has produced some of the fastest speeds and exciting finishes we’ve seen over the past few seasons.

Remember back to last season, The Chase for the Sprint Cup was heating up between five-time champ, Jimmie Johnson and now defending champion, Brad Kesolowski. The fall race at Texas last year was firmly in the hands of the No. 48 team for the majority of the 335 laps run, but a late-race caution flag lined the two Championship contenders up side-by-side for a fantastic finish. The two collided with one another in the final laps, with Johnson emerging victorious from the awesome battle and Kesolowski landing in second.

The 1.5/2 mile intermediate tracks are the ones NASCAR circled when designing the new Gen-6 car. They wanted to design a race car that would tighten the delta we’ve seen on the intermediate tracks with the Gen-5 race car over the course of the past five or so seasons. So far this season, we’ve seen a record number of green flag passes for the lead at Las Vegas with 31, and matched the track record of 41 at Auto Club Speedway. Based on these two important stats, I’m going to make the statement that the designers of the Gen-6 car have done their job and improved the passing on these traditional “cookie-cutter” tracks. Saturday night will be no different. Watch for track-record speeds and passing throughout the field.

Martinsville Recap

I went with the defending champ last week, and it was the five-time champ who dominated the STP Gas Booster 500. Against my better judgment, I picked against the recent history at Martinsville Speedway, and it came back to bite me in the end. I went against the history of the past 21 races at the paper-clip, being dominated by three drivers, Jimmie Johnson being one of them. Ford also hadn’t visited Victory Lane (or should I say the front stretch backdrop) in over a decade as well. It was ultimately Johnson and the Chevy’s that dominated last week. Never bet against the trends. Kesolowski finished sixth.

I picked a Chevy for my dark horse pick last week, but I had no luck with Ryan Newman finishing 31st, as the Stewart-Haas camp continued their slow start last week at Martinsville.

Texas Picks

If you tuned into www.primesportsnetwork.com on Wednesday night, you heard Greg Dipalma and I preview Saturday Night’s NRA 500 from Texas Motor Speedway. There were a couple drivers I really liked because of where the odds opened up, Matt Kenseth at a 12 to 1 and Dale Earnhardt Jr. at 15 to 1. I made my picks on Wednesday evening based off historical finishes at TMS without the advantage of seeing any testing or practice speeds.

There was one trend that was clear across the board, starting up front at Texas is very important. We highlighted some drivers who have not traditionally qualified well at Texas, and their tallies in the win column at Texas reflected the importance of starting up front. Six of the last eight races at Texas Motor Speedway have been won from a starting spot inside the top-5.

Winner Pick

I liked my pick on Wednesday, and I’m sticking with him again today. Matt Kenseth really likes Texas Motor Speedway, probably because he enters Saturday with a top-5 in each of the last five races at TMS. He boasts the series best average finish (6.2) in the last ten races at TMS and won the first Gen-6 race on a 1.5-mile track when he snubbed Kasey Khane from the win in Las Vegas. Fast forward to Thursday’s test sessions at TMS and look at the 7 fastest 10 consecutive lap averages, and you’ll find Matt Kenseth. Flip to the 5th best consecutive lap average, and you’ll find his Joe Gibbs Racing teammate, Kyle Busch. Despite Jimmie Johnson being fastest in both test sessions yesterday as far as 10 lap averages are concerned, Toyota claimed 3 of the top 5 10 consecutive lap averages on the day.

Kenseth will be the 13th car on the track for qualifying later this evening and is my guy who will be there at the end this week.

Dark Horse Pick

I didn’t have a long shot pick on Wednesday, but since the cars have unloaded and been on track the past two days, one car has shown a ton of speed in testing. As I mentioned before, qualifying well might mean the difference between a win and a tenth place finish this week in Texas. The No.78 Furniture Row racing Chevy has been fast the past two days, winning the first test session and coming in runner-up in the second of the two test sessions yesterday. Kurt Busch followed up his season-high fourth place finish at Bristol with a top-5 at Auto Club Speedway, the other intermediate oval race this season. We’ve seen some speed out of this team so far this weekend, and Busch will look to shake the woes he had at Martinsville last week with a solid finish in the Lone Star State.

That’s all for this week, so until Kansas, you stay classy NASCAR NATION!

April 12, 2013
Matty’s Picks 2013 – Vol. 4 Martinsville Speedway – STP Gas Booster 500 – April 7, 2013

It has been a couple weeks since you have heard from me, and I am excited for my opportunity to spout off my thoughts before tomorrow’s STP Gas Booster 500. Martinsville Speedway is one of my favorite stops on the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series each year due to its storied history and true short-track persona. It is the only track left on the NASCAR circuit which was part of the original schedule back in 1948, and the .526 mi paper-clip needs no further introduction.

If you’ve been following SpeedwayMedia or myself on Twitter, you may have noticed I’ve taken my thoughts and picks to the online radio/podcast arena, joining Greg Dipalma of the Prime Sports Network each Wednesday evening to preview the upcoming week’s race. This past week, Greg and I had the privilege of speaking with Mike Smith, PR Director for Martinsville Speedway, who offered his insight on what it takes to put on a NASCAR Sprint Cup Series event at the storied short track in Southern Virginia. Somewhere around 80,000 Martinsville hot dogs will be consumed this weekend, and I thank Mike Smith for taking a break from his cooking duties to speak with us this week.

No recap this week so we’ll move right into my picks for tomorrow’s STP Gas Booster 500.

Winner Pick
A few important factors have made paring down the list of potential winners tomorrow at Martinsville Speedway. The first important statistic that has helped to set my fantasy roster and make some bold statements as to who will win the race tomorrow afternoon is, 93 of the 128 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series races at Martinsville Speedway have been won from a top-10 starting position. Furthermore, just 5 of the 128 races have been won from a starting spot outside the top-20. Add the two together, and 123 of the 128 races have been won from inside the top-20.

Now, it’s the track’s recent history that I am betting against this week. The past 20 races at Martinsville Speedway have been dominated by three drivers, Jimmie Johnson (7 total wins in past 20 races), Jeff Gordon (4 wins in past 20 races), and Denny Hamlin (4 wins in past 20 races). Also, Chevrolet has won all but 5 of the past 20 races (4 being won by Hamlin in his Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota and one by Rusty Wallace in 2004 for Dodge). The manufacturer missing in these talks is Ford, who has not visited Gatorade Victory Lane since Kurt Busch won from the 36th starting position, the deepest in the field that a race winner has started at Martinsville Speedway.

The driver I am going with this week finished 3rd at the other short-track race this year, and besides Watkins Glen and Sonoma, has been strongest on the short-tracks over his career. In six starts at Martinsville Speedway, Brad Kesolowski has just three top-10’s and has lead just ten laps at the paper-clip, but has yet to finish outside the top-20. He ranks fourth among active drivers – behind Jimmie Johnson, Jeff Gordon, and Denny Hamlin, and will start seventh tomorrow at Martinsville Speedway. Kesolowski is a short-track guy and will look to snap Ford’s 20-race winless streak in Southern Virginia tomorrow.

Dark Horse Pick
Ryan Newman is a driver who struggled earlier this season in finishing the race, but who has rebounded nicely since his 38th place finish at Las Vegas with solid finishes at both Bristol and Auto Club Speedway. He stole the win at Martinsville Speedway last season, and over the course of his career, has finished the best at short tracks over intermediate tracks, road courses, and restrictor plate tracks. In 22 races at the paper-clip, Newman has tallied a win, seven top fives, eleven top tens, and has started on the pole three times. Newman will roll off the grid in the tenth starting position tomorrow and looks for a solid finish tomorrow to improve his chances of making The Chase for the Sprint Cup this season.

That’s all for this week, be sure to tune into www.PrimeSportsNetwork.com on Wednesday as Greg and I preview next week’s race from Texas Motor Speedway!

Until next time, you stay classy NASCAR NATION!

April 6, 2013
Matty’s Picks 2013 – Vol. 3 Las Vegas Motor Speedway – Kobalt Tools 400 – March 10, 2013

We stay on the left coast again for the second straight week in the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series as the series makes first and only visit of the season to the 1.5-mile tri-oval in the desert. An aging race surface, a green racetrack, and the first real look at how the new Gen6 car will perform on a more traditional 1.5-mile track, we head into another weekend with many unknowns surrounding the outcome of the 267 lap stanza on Sunday.

With a rare rain-out of both practice and qualifying yesterday, teams are scrambling to parlay the Intel they gained from Thursday’s 6-hour test session and apply it to their setups for Sunday Afternoon’s 16th Annual Kobalt Tools 400.

Per the NASCAR Rule Book, the field for Sunday has been set according to last season’s Owner Points, meaning The Champ, Brad Kesolowski will share the front row with last year’s bridesmaid, Clint Bowyer. As we saw last week in Phoenix, with the increased amount of downforce the Gen6 car is producing, tire wear is becoming the top story in this young season, and with a green racetrack in the desert again this week, handling and saving your equipment might be the key in driving to Victory Lane on Sunday.

Phoenix Recap

Well, I published my column last week before Denny Hamlin was forced to change engines and start from the rear of the field in last Sunday’s Subway Fresh Fit 500. I really hoped for the best in not updating my column on Sunday morning, and it truly paid off as the guy I looked at to win last Sunday, was also sent to the rear of the field, and he did not fare as well as Hamlin did in working his way up through the field.

With Hamlin coming off the back last week, the combination of excellent pit strategy and quick pit stops were the key for the No. 11 FedEx Office team in their first top-five of the 2013 season. A three-wide pass on the white flag lap in the dogleg section of PIR vaulted the No. 11 team to a third place finish after battling a loose racecar for the majority of the day.

Hamlin spoke after his podium finish and was fined $25,000 by NASCAR for his comments about the new Gen6 racecar, and NASCAR has not released exactly what sparked the $25,000 slap, but the only negative comments Hamlin made appear to be comparing the Gen6 car to the Generation Five cars:

” We learned a lot. I don’t want to be the pessimist, but it did not race as good as our generation five cars. This is more like what the generation five was at the beginning. The teams hadn’t figured out how to get the aero balance right. Right now, you just run single-file and you cannot get around the guy in front of you. You would have placed me in 20th-place with 30 (laps) to go, I would have stayed there — I wouldn’t have moved up. It’s just one of those things where track position is everything.”

My dark horse pick fared quite a bit worse at the flat-track in the desert last week, despite winning each of the three practice sessions and after starting the race from the pole position. Michael Waltrip Racing’s Mark Martin was the car to beat going based off practice speeds and after taking the Coors Light Pole Award, but after an extra pit stop on lap 63 for a vibration on the right side of the No. 55 AAron’s Dream Machine Toyota, Martin had to first gain back the lap he lost on the stop, as well as pass 20+ cars on the lead lap to end up in Victory Lane. Luckily, the caution would fly just a few laps later, and Martin would climb his way back to the lead lap, but would fall short in the end following the wild conclusion of the Subway Fresh Fit 500. A 21st place finish is what I got out of my Dark Horse last week, not the finish I’m looking for.

Vegas Picks

Just one time a year we visit the 1.5-miler in the desert, and it’s probably a good thing we only make one trip to Sin City, both for the sake of the difficulty in handling drivers are experiencing this week and also for the sake of The Champ’s liver….

Winner Pick

It’s very difficult not to look at Jimmie Johnson this week, as his impressiveness in the first few races each season is what kick-starts the No. 48 Lowe’s/Kobalt Tools Chevrolet team. Johnson tops the list of active driver performances at Las Vegas Motor Speedway with four wins, five top fives, and six top tens in just eleven races at the 1.5-mile tri-oval. Historically speaking, Johnson has been a contender in each and every Intermediate Track race the past seven or so seasons, and the odds-makers have made Johnson the preliminary front-runner in giving him 5-1 odds at taking home the trophy tomorrow for his car sponsor, who like last week’s race winner, Carl Edwards, will also be driving for the race sponsor tomorrow afternoon. He had the second-best 10-lap average in Thursday’s test session at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, the second-best time by any Chevrolet, and the best run by any of the Hendrick Motorsports drivers. He’s starting inside the second row, so he doesn’t have far to go to get to the front.

Dark Horse Pick

Richard Childress Racing claimed two of the top-five spots in final NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Happy Hour this afternoon, and the fifth-fastest 10-lap average went to RCR’s Paul Menard. Las Vegas Motor Speedway happens to be Menard’s second-best track in the past 2 years, averaging a finish just inside the top-10 at 9.5. At Las Vegas’ twin track, Kansas Speedway, which hosts two NASCAR Sprint Cup Series races each year, Menard has boasted a finish inside the top 5 and the track happens to be his second-best track in his 10-year Sprint Cup Career. By definition, a long-shot is any driver with odds of winning of 20-1 or worse, and Menard currently sits at 100-1 to win the Kobalt Tools 400 on Sunday, so a Dark Horse is exactly what Paul Menard is for taking the home the trophy.

That’s all for this week, so until we roll on to the bull ring in the hills of Tennessee, you stay classy NASCAR NATION!

March 9, 2013