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Matty’s Picks 2013 – Vol. 2 Phoenix International Raceway – SUBWAY Fresh Fit 500 – March 3, 2013

We head west this week for the first of two annual visits to the one-mile, low-banked, tri-oval that is Phoenix International Raceway, more commonly known as PIR. The NASCAR Sprint Cup Series makes its first stop on the west coast this season (Phoenix also happens to be the final west coast stop on the tour as well) and NASCAR fans will get their first look at the new GEN6 car on a more traditional style track this weekend.

One interesting fact about the two races at PIR is that contrary to the more traditional NASCAR Sprint Cup Series races measured in miles, the ‘500’ in SUBWAY Fresh Fit 500 is actually in kilometers. This makes Phoenix the only oval to have its race distances measured in kilometers and not miles or laps as, both road course races at Sonoma and Watkins Glen have their races measured in kilometers. So 500 kilometers or 312 laps is the distance this week and with a new car, a perfect weather forecast, and with last fall’s race full of fireworks, I expect Sunday’s SUBWAY Fresh Fit 500 to be just as exciting as last week’s kickoff to the 2013 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series’ season in the Daytona 500.

Daytona Recap

It was a fantastic start to the 2013 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series campaign last week and I was able to get past my hatred for restrictor plate racing and actually really enjoyed watching the Daytona 500. There were so many unknowns surrounding the race last week that added to the drama of this year’s kickoff to the season that it was hard not to try and gain some new fans of the sport in my non-NASCAR friends and family. Who would win the first race in the new GEN6 car? How would the field of drivers handle the return to pack racing at the plate tracks? How would Danica Patrick handle the pressure of being the first woman to start on the pole of a NASCAR Sprint Cup Series race? Did she have a legitimate shot at winning the Daytona 500?

All the questions were answered last week, and I must say I was thoroughly impressed with the performance of the new car, the return of the pack style racing, and Danica’s performance in the Daytona 500. I completely discounted her being a contender last Sunday, and she absolutely proved me wrong with her performance last week, despite her reaction in the post-race interview.

As for my picks, I was able to pare down the list of potential winners by using a historical trend formula I was able to develop in the 3 month off-season leading up to last week’s Daytona 500. I made the call that the winner would not come from the front row, would not be Kevin Harvick (the winner of the Sprint Unlimited and one of the Duel races), and the winner of the Daytona 500 would have taken home the Harley J. Earl Trophy once before. This left seven drivers for me to pick as my Winner Pick last week (Matt Kenseth, Trevor Bayne, Jamie McMurray, Ryan Newman, Jimmie Johnson, Dale Earnhardt Jr., and Michael Waltrip).

I went with Dale Earnhardt Jr., who was the second-best pick last week out of the group of elite drivers my formula pared the field down to, and I can’t complain about picking the runner-up given the new car, the style of racing, and the uncertainty surrounding the race at Daytona last week. I picked a Hendrick Motorsports driver to win the race last week, but came up just one position short of starting my season off with a win. Dale Jr. had this to say following his runner-up finish last week:

“Real happy with the way the car run all day. You couldn’t pass much. But when I was able to really see what my car could do, it was plenty capable of winning the race. The guys did a good job all winter trying to prepare for running well. We got 1-2 out of our shop. Really happy with Hendrick and all our effort.”

My Dark Horse pick was just that, a true Dark Horse pick. I went with JTG Daugherty driver, Bobby Labonte who had a respectable points day and managed to dodge all the troubles that come along with a restrictor place race, but did not earn me a Dark Horse top 10 last week. Running as high as sixth with less than 25 laps left in the Daytona 500, Labonte finished his day in the 15th spot as a result of a late-race shot on the right front of the No.47 Kroger/USO Toyota Camry. Not a bad finish, but not exactly what I am looking for going forward.

Phoenix Picks

Phoenix to me is a big short track, if that makes sense. It’s a one-mile tri-oval with a tricky configuration, including inconsistent banking throughout and the 9-degree banked ‘dogleg’ on the backstretch. Fine sand plays a major role on tire wear, after all, the track is in the middle of the desert. Some of the guys you think of when you think recent dominance on short tracks in the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series, you think Tony Stewart, Kyle Busch, Denny Hamlin, Jeff Gordon, Ryan Newman, Brad Kesolowski, Jimmie Johnson, and Clint Bowyer.
For Phoenix in particular, it is tough not to make a case for Jimmie Johnson as he has an average finish of fifth in seventeen starts at PIR, and it has been only been three races since Johnson has visited Victory Lane in consecutive weeks. What is holding me back from picking Johnson this week at PIR is his recent history in the desert, as since the reconfiguration in 2011, Five-Time has finished 14th, 4th, and 32nd in the three races since the repaving.

Winner Pick

The other guy likely to be a favorite when the final odds are released this evening is Denny Hamlin. He is the defending champion of this race, a race he won by 7.13 seconds last season, and is the guy I will turn to for the win this week. Mark Martin was the pole-sitter last season when Hamlin won the Subway Fresh Fit 500, and he will look to become the first driver to start inside the first four rows to go on and win a race at PIR since the track’s reconfiguration in 2011. Before the facelift in 2011, just two drivers had won a race at Phoenix after starting outside the top ten, the last being Jeff Gordon in the final race before the repaving in 2011. Since the SUBWAY Fresh Fit 500 is such a short race, the woes of the Joe Gibbs Racing cars from Daytona should not play a factor in this week’s race.

Dark Horse Pick

Why not look at the guy starting first this week at PIR as a guy who may be overlooked by most handicappers as he has not won a race in over 2 years, but has a storied history in the desert. Mark Martin is 9th best in driver rating over the past eight years at PIR, and has really set the stage all weekend for all of Michael Waltrip Racing drivers. In practice today, teammate Clint Bowyer radioed in to crew chief Brian Pattie that if his car was set up any differently than Martin’s, to immediately change the setup to whatever Martin was running. Though the temperature for today’s first practice session was far lower than what is forecasted for race time tomorrow, Martin has looked fantastic since he unloaded on Friday. Watch for Martin to start up front and stay up front for the majority of the day tomorrow.

That’s all for this week, stay tuned for next week’s picks when we roll the dice in Vegas! Until next time, you stay classy NASCAR NATION!

March 2, 2013
Matty’s Picks 2013 – Vol. 1 Daytona International Speedway – Daytona 500 – February 24, 2013

It’s another NASCAR season, and I’m proud to be kicking off the third season of my weekly column devoted to picking a couple drivers with the potential to make some noise on Sunday afternoon. Before I begin my outlook on the 2013 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Season and tomorrow’s 55th running of the Daytona 500, I’d like to share my thoughts and prayers for all those fans injured today at Daytona International Speedway on the final lap of the NASCAR Nationwide Series’ DRIVE4COPD 300. It is extremely unfortunate when fans who show up to be entertained, actually become a part of the action.

After a stellar rookie season in 2011, my sophomore season as a NASCAR handicapper saw its ups and downs, which is why I am excited for a clean slate to start off this 2013 season. We’ve got a new reigning NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Champion for the first time since 2004, a few newcomers to the Sprint Cup Series, a new driver/driver relationship known as “Stenica”, a few team changes, one less manufacturer, and an entirely new race car to start off this 2013 season. With so many unknowns to start this 2013 season, selecting winners this season is looking to be my toughest task yet as a sports journalist.

Nothing to recap this week as I move out of my three-month NASCAR hibernation (which couldn’t come soon enough this year as my Buffalo Bills finished at the bottom of the AFC East standings with a dismal 6-10 record, and my fainted Buffalo Sabres currently fight to lift themselves from the bottom of the NHL’s Eastern Conference Standings) so, we’ll move into my thoughts on the 55th running of the Daytona 500.

Daytona Picks

I absolutely loathe restrictor plate racing as it tends to be more mayhem than actual racing talent, but I will not take away from the excitement surrounding the start of the 2013 campaign and reserve my comments for the time being.

Though it is said that the four restrictor plate races on the schedule are “a roll of the dice” in picking winners, but I tend to pare down the potential list of winners using historical trends. For instance, it has been twelve years since the last driver took home both the Daytona 500 and the Sprint Unlimited (formerly the Budweiser Shootout) in the same year. This feat has been claimed five times by four different drivers, but the last time a driver won at Daytona in consecutive weeks, dates back to 2000 when Dale Jarrett took home the Daytona 500 and Sprint Unlimited in the same year for the second time in his storied career. For this reason alone, I eliminate Kevin Harvick as my Winner Pick for tomorrow’s Daytona 500.

It has also been a dozen years since the winner of the Daytona 500 has come from the front row, and if you’ve ever solicited advice at the Roulette wheel, anyone with experience will tell you to never bet against the recent trends . Dale Jarrett not only won the Sprint Unlimited and Daytona 500 in the year 2000, but he did it by starting from the pole position of The Great American Race. It was the second year in a row that the winner of the Daytona 500 came from the first starting spot, and for this reason I’ll eliminate Danica Patrick and Jeff Gordon from contention tomorrow.

Last year’s Daytona 500 marked the first time in seven years a repeat winner took home the Harley J. Earl Trophy, the second-longest streak of first-time winners (the longest streak of new winners being seven races, from the inaugural race in 1959 to The King’s second Daytona 500 victory in 1966). Sticking with historical trends, I am making a prediction that the winner of tomorrow’s race will have taken home a Daytona 500 at least once already. This means that the winner will come from either Matt Kenseth, Trevor Bayne, Jamie McMurray, Ryan Newman, Jimmie Johnson, Dale Earnhardt Jr., or Michael Waltrip. The two other drivers with Daytona 500 wins (Jeff Gordon and Kevin Harvick) have been eliminated from my list of potential race winners under previous historical trends.

Winner Pick

So, we’ve got the list down to seven potential winners based on my historical trend formula, and out of these seven drivers, I’m most comfortable saying Dale Jr. will walk away as the second driver in two years to win their second Daytona 500 win. Dale Jr.’s first Daytona 500 win came back in 2004, giving DEI their final Daytona 500 victory before merging with Chip Ganassi Racing, forming Earnhardt Ganassi Racing. He has visited Gatorade Victory Lane more recently than 2004 as he started off his career with Hendrick Motorsports with wins in both the Sprint Unlimited and his Budweiser Duel race prior to the 2008 Daytona 500. He was also the runner up in both his Duel race and Daytona 500 last season.

This year, Jr. has looked extremely comfortable in the No. 88 National Guard Chevrolet, and the No. 88 car has looked comfortable in the pack draft. This is the style of racing the Earnhardt family is known for and the Hendrick camp has put a truly magnificent product on the track again for Dale Jr. He’s been in the mix of the faster cars all week, including winning the final practice session on Friday for the 55th Annual Great American Race. I’ll be watching the No. 88 to immediately work his way to the front from his starting spot in the middle of the pack, and for Jr. Nation to start their 2013 season off with a win.

Dark Horse Pick

It is tough to call a past NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Champion a Dark Horse, but there is a guy making his 65th start at Daytona International Speedway this week who has shown he can keep his nose clean and finish the race strong. Bobby Labonte will be another driver starting mid-pack on Sunday, and will look to keep the nose of his Kroger Toyota clean in order to finish strong in his No. 47 JTG Daugherty Racing Toyota Camry.

Now, is been 324 races since his last victory, so I’m stretching here for a Dark Horse pick, but Labonte’s recent history at The World Center of Racing has be believing he might play a factor in Sunday’s race. Drivers like to draft with guys with experience, and experience Labonte has. Watch for the No. 47 to mix up the front of the field come lap 199 on Sunday.

That’s all for this week, so until we head west for the second stanza of the season, you stay classy NASCAR NATION!

February 24, 2013
Matty’s Picks 2012 – Vol. 23 – New Hampshire Motor Speedway – Sylvania 300 – September 23, 2012

After a two-week hiatus, I’m back in action this week as the 2012 Chase for the Sprint Cup rolls on into The Granite State for the second time this season. If it wasn’t for Ryan Newman’s tenth-place finish, the twelve drivers in contention for the drivers’ championship this year would have claimed the top twelve finishing spots in July’s Lenox Industrial Tools 301 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway.

To say the twelve chase contenders have historically run well at New Hampshire is an understatement. Eight of the last twelve, including four of the last five races in Loudon have been won by this year’s Chase drivers. After last week’s Geico 400, there are a few Chase drivers with work to do to keep their championship hopes alive. Jeff Gordon (a three-time New Hampshire winner), Matt Kenseth (no New Hampshire wins), and Denny Hamlin (one New Hampshire Win) all finished outside the top fifteen last week at Chicago and all are looking for strong finishes this week to put their championship efforts back on track.

On the contrary, five-time NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Champion, Jimmie Johnson started his 2012 Chase campaign off with a runner-up finish last week in Chicago. He was one of seven Chase drivers starting their playoff run with a top ten last week and this week should be no different in the front end of the field being packed full of Championship contenders.
Nothing to recap from last week so we’ll get right into my picks for this week…

New Hampshire Picks

Winner Pick

Denny Hamlin won all three NASCAR Sprint Cup Series practice sessions, but wasn’t able to parlay his speed over into NASCAR Sprint Cup Qualifying. He was seven-tenths of a second slower than pole-sitter Jeff Gordon in qualifying on Friday, but that fact doesn’t scare me away from picking him for the win on Sunday afternoon. He is in need of a solid finish this week in New England to bring him back to the discussions of favorites to win the Chase for the Sprint Cup.

Hamlin’s confidence in a win this week has caught my ears and my eyes via Twitter following his tweet after the Geico 400, “This is 1 week of 10. We will win next week.” Hamlin was asked about his confidence on Friday, and I might say I am a fan of it, “Just confident that we could win. It’s no different than the nine Chase tracks that we go to, other than Dover where I’m going to be realistic. I feel like I can go win each and every one of them.” It’s Hamlin with a tall mountain to climb to land in Victory Lane tomorrow afternoon, but it’s a challenge that Hamlin has the equipment he needs to put himself in position to win this year’s Chase for the Sprint Cup.

Dark Horse Pick

I like what Michael Waltrip Racing has done this season with the No. 55 car. With the constant switch of drivers between Mark Martin and Brian Vickers, it is difficult to establish some sort of normalcy within the race team. Vickers was able to run a lap good enough for the fourth starting spot on the grid for the Sylvania 300, and has steadily improved his speed throughout the weekend. He started the first practice session on Friday shown 13th on the charts, moved to 6th after the second practice, and finished 3rd in final practice earlier today.

Keep an eye on the No. 55 this week…

That’s all for this time, so until next week…You Stay Classy NASCAR NATION!

September 22, 2012
Matty’s Picks 2012 – Vol. 21 – Michigan International Speedway – Pure Michigan 400 – August 19, 2012

The summer tour continues this week in the rolling hills of Michigan for the 43rd Annual Pure Michigan 400. The new racing surface at Michigan International Speedway, produced speeds upwards of 210 mph and sent Goodyear’s engineers back to the drawing board. NASCAR was forced to circle the wagons and have a fleet of new Goodyear tires caravanned up to MIS from Charlotte as a result of the blistering speeds. The tires held up and the race at MIS nine weeks ago turned out to be a far cry from the traditional strung out boring-ness that races at Michigan tended to produce.

Drivers are loving the new surface at Michigan, and with a two-groove racing surface coming into play this weekend, side-by-side racing is surely on the menu this week.

Watkins Glen Recap

It was a wild one last week at Watkins Glen, but in the end I was proved wrong by the recent ‘Master of The Glen’, Marcos Ambrose.

I went out on a limb last week and said it would not be one of the two ‘Road Course Specialists’ in Victory Lane last week, and had that statement shoved in my face on the final lap of the Finger Lakes 355 at The Glen. My Winner Pick, Brad Kesolowski fought hard all day last week and fell victim to the bold driving of Marcos Ambrose on the final lap last week.

The oil down on the track at the conclusion of the race on Sunday was the main story.

“Well the 18, (who was leading the race at the start of the final lap) was oil. Look like he had something wrong there and had the whole track slick as hell. You couldn’t drive it; it was undriveable…Then it came down to just running a whole lap against Marcos. I got in the oil and we’d slip up. He’d get by me and then he’d get in the oil and I’d get by him. Just really good, hard racing; some beating and banging. I think its the way racing should be.” Brad Keselowski said about the situation.

My Dark Horse pick last week considers Watkins Glen International to be one of his ‘Hometown Tracks’. The Mayetta, NJ native started ninth and finished tenth in Sunday’s 90-lap NASCAR Sprint Cup Series race at Watkins Glen International. Quickly climbing through the top-10, Martin Truex Jr. made his way all the way up to third by lap 27. A mid-race mishap for the No. 56 NAPA Auto Parts Toyota (an empty fuel tank), put the kibosh on Truex’s bid for the victory at the 2.45-mile road course.

Truex commented after the race “We dodged a big bullet there with a 10th-place finish. We had a good car. The NAPA Toyota was fast. We were running third and one lap from pitting and we ran out of gas and the caution came out. So, when we pitted we had to go to the tail end of the longest line and I think there were only 25 laps to go and we were in the tail end of the longest line. We had to pass a lot of cars to get back to 10th.”

Michigan Picks

I’m very glad I’m finishing this week’s column today rather than yesterday. With the drama of NASCAR Sprint Cup Series practice this morning, my picks would have been far different had I written my column yesterday, rather than today.

Winner Pick

Dale Jr. was the guy I was looking at for the win before this morning’s practice session, but with Jr. forced to a backup car following a spin in practice, it would be a true underdog victory tomorrow afternoon for the No. 88 team. To make things worse for the Steve Latarte and Dale Jr., the wreck happened with less than ten minutes remaining in Final Practice, leaving no time for adjustments to the Hendrick Motorsports backup car.

With the Dale Jr. drama unfolding this morning, I have no choice but to turn to a guy with two wins under his belt at Michigan International Speedway. He’s currently second in points, and has just one win this season. He’s had an up and down last few weeks, and needs a win for seeding purposes for this year’s Chase for the Sprint Cup. Greg Biffle was fastest in each of the two final practice sessions this weekend at MIS, and has a great looking car for tomorrow’s Pure Michigan 400.

Dark Horse Pick

Reagan Smith is riding a great looking Furniture Row/Farm American Chevrolet this week into Michigan, and is coming off back-to-back top tens at the two tracks closest to his hometown of Cato, NY. Michigan International Speedway has not been the kindest of racetracks for Reagan Smith, but that’s not to say he can not change that this week. He boasts a best finish of thirteenth at the two-miler, but was shown eighth fastest on the speed charts this morning in Final Practice. Smith will start the Pure Michigan 400 from the eighteenth starting spot, so he’s got some work to do on Sunday to leave Michigan with a solid finish.

That’s all for this week, so until next time….You Stay Classy NASCAR NATION!

August 18, 2012
Matty’s Picks 2012 – Vol. 17 Kentucky Speedway – Quaker State 400 – June 30, 2012

For the second time in Kentucky Speedway’s brief 12-year history, the big guns of the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series will set their sights on the 1.5-mile, D-shaped demon. My forecast for the weekend, ‘it’s going to be HOT!’ Temperatures are slated to reach triple-digits all weekend in the Bluegrass State, and the heat will only add to the slickness of the racing surface in Sparta.

It was a year ago that I had the privilege (or punishment) of covering the Inaugural Quaker State 400 at Kentucky Speedway, and amidst the traffic issues, inclement weather and irritated race fans, I managed to have a good time. Jerry Carroll and now Bruton Smith have erected an absolutely magnificent facility in Northern Kentucky, and should be extremely proud to have been mentioned atop the list of sold-out races in 2011.

Sonoma Recap

I had a decent weekend last week in wine country, but did not have as good of a weekend as I would have liked. I’m supposedly a ‘Road Course Specialist’ so one would assume I could come up with some a decent finish in Sonoma.

My Winner Pick last week was the guy that 95% of the entire NASCAR community had pegged to win the Toyota/Save Mart 350, but fell short in his effort to win from his second Coors Light Pole in as many weeks. Marcos Ambrose was the guy to beat going into last week’s 110 lap stanza, but Ambrose battled an ill-handling chariot early in his quest to make it two road course victories in a row for the Stanley team. Ambrose shuffled his way back to a race-low 16th position and rallied to start 13th before the green-white-checkered finish.

Ambrose’s work with just two laps to work with showed me why I made the call to go with him last week. The Aussie was able to rebound from the ill handling racecar he had early on to finish 8th last week, earning me a much-needed top 10 in Sonoma.

My Dark Horse was another driver with a roller-coaster of a day last week in wine country…

Jeff Gordon started his day on the outside of the front row and quickly took advantage of Ambrose’s misfortune early on. Gordon snagged the lead on lap 12, and amidst his tenure leading the 2012 Toyota/Save Mart 350, managed to surpass 23,000 career laps led, the most among active drivers and ranking seventh on the all-time list. The No. 24 Chevrolet remained in the top 5 until lap 71 when his Impala sputtered on-track, a telling sign of an empty fuel cell. He was able to limp his car to pit road where he received a full tank of fuel and four tires, arming him for a run for the checkered. As the race shook out, drivers came to pit road, gained positions and following the green-white-checkered, the No. 24 DuPont Chevrolet was shown 6th on the final leaderboard, giving me a double top-10 week last Sunday.

Kentucky Picks

With just one year of history to pull from in the Bluegrass State, it is tough to identify a guy who is ‘Good at Kentucky’. I’m going to do my best this week and pray for a win…

Winner Pick

Kyle Busch is where my money is going this week. He absolutely dominated the weekend last year in Sparta (winning the NASCAR Camping World Truck Series’ race after starting dead last, finishing second in the Nationwide race after finishing dead last, and by dominating the Inaugural Quaker State 400 from the pole) and is hungry to solidify his spot in The Chase for the Sprint Cup with a win on Saturday night. As I glance at current practice speeds from Kentucky, he had been shown third fastest in the first hour, but has slipped to 9th currently.

Here’s what Busch had to say about returning to Kentucky as the Inaugural Race Winner:

“I think it’s cool. You look at some of the new venues we’ve been to over the years and Jeff Gordon got to win a number of inaugural races, like the Brickyard, Fontana, and Kansas. He was always the guy who was known to figure out places the fastest, but we were able to be the ones to do that last year at Kentucky. There aren’t many opportunities these days to go to a new venue, so for us being able to win the first race there was extra special and, to put that M&M’s car in victory lane. We’d love to be able to come back there with our Red, White, and Blue M&M’s car and still keep us as the only winners there thus far in Sprint Cup.”

Dark Horse Pick

Why not make it an all Busch weekend this week and pick the No. 51 Finch Racing Chevy to win or bring home a top-5 this week? His Phoenix Construction Services Impala held together last week to finish 3rd in Sonoma, and barring suspension from NASCAR this week, I think Kurt Busch has a decent shot at a strong finish this week. As a glance at the practice speeds, its looking like KuBu has a decent car and is working on primarily race-trim, with the go-or-go homers soaking up a good portion of positions 10-20 on the practice leader board. He finished 9th last year in the inaugural race at Kentucky Speedway, driving for Penske Racing.

That’s all for this week, so until we throw the restrictor plates on once again this year…You Stay Classy NASCAR NATION!

June 29, 2012
Matty’s Picks 2012 – Vol. 14 Dover International Speedway – FedEx 400 benefiting Autism Speaks – June 3, 2012

[media-credit name=”doverspeedway.com” align=”alignright” width=”100″][/media-credit]It’s off to the first state to ratify the United States Constitution this weekend to a track that ranks up there in my list of personal favorites. Contrary to a belief that Delaware would be full of parks, monuments, historic sites, battlefields, etc… it remains the only state without a National Park System unit. This doesn’t mean there is not any NASCAR history in the state of Delaware. In 1995, Dover Downs International Speedway became the first NASCAR racing venue to be paved with concrete rather than asphalt. The concrete is one of the 1,000 elements that make Dover such a popular spot for NASCAR fans, and Sunday’s FedEx 400 will be nothing shy of exciting.

Coca-Cola 600 Recap

Jimmie Johnson was my guy for last week’s Coca-Cola 600, coming off his win in the NASCAR Sprint All-Star race two weeks ago. Johnson had been on fire for Hendrick Motorsports, claiming their 200th win at Darlington and winning the All-Star race at Charlotte Motor Speedway, but his flames were put out last Sunday by a stop-and-go penalty on lap 354. His night was rather uneventful up to that point, creeping around the top five for the majority of the laps, but Johnson left his pit box with the fuel can still attached to his Impala on lap 354. Johnson couldn’t recover from the stop-and-go penalty and ended his night on a bitter note in 11th place.

My Dark Horse pick had even less luck on his side than Jimmie Johnson in last week’s Coca-Cola 600, retiring early due to mechanical failure. Marcos Ambrose had been on my radar to step up and make a statement in the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series on an oval. I was on the right track through the first 200 of the 400 lap stanza as Ambrose took the lead on several occasions last Sunday evening, when a rare hub failure ended my hopes of pulling a pick from where the sun don’t shine. Ambrose limped his No. 9 DEWALT Ford Fusion to the garage for repairs on lap 218, and eventually claimed the 32nd spot in the 2012 Coca-Cola 600.

Dover Picks

I’ve got two practice sessions but no starting positions to base my picks off of this week as qualifying for the 43rd Annual FedEx 400 benefiting Autism Speaks is on the unusual Saturday this week. There are a few guys on my list of contenders this week because of the difficulty the Monster Mile brings on the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series drivers.

Winner Pick

Its ‘Concrete Carl’ who I’m going with this week to win at Dover International Speedway. There is one team in the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series which has three drivers in the top 10 in points thru the first 12 races of the season, yep its Roush Fenway Racing. Concrete Carl has the best average finish (7.3) of all active drivers and the third-best Driver Rating (106.5). His first and only win on the high-banked, one-mile concrete oval back in September of 2007 and Edwards is looking to solidify his spot in the top-10 in drivers points this weekend in Dover.

Dark Horse Pick

Its Martin Truex Jr. who will prevail as my Dark Horse this week. The Southern New Jersey native calls the Monster Mile his home track, and his first and only win came five years ago at Dover. Much like five years ago, the weather forecast is questionable for Sunday’s race, and coincidentally the forecast for Truex’s first win was less than optimal, as his first win came on Monday, June 4th, 2007 rather than Sunday, June 3rd, 2007. Truex currently sits solidly in sixth in NASCAR Sprint Cup points, and has won two of the last three Coors Light poles at the Monster Mile. His stats are mixed at Dover, last five finishes are 30th, 8th, 34th, 12th, and 33rd, but he is really in the groove this season and Truex is looking for a solid homecoming to add to the banner season he has had thus far.

That’s all for this week, so until next time…You Stay Classy NASCAR NATION!

June 1, 2012
Matty’s Picks 2012 – Vol. 12 Charlotte Motor Speedway – NASCAR Sprint All Star Race – May 19, 2012

[media-credit name=”charlottemotorspeedway.com” align=”alignright” width=”199″][/media-credit]The stars have come home to Charlotte for this weekend’s NASCAR Sprint All Star Race, and this year brings new drivers, a new format, but the same old distinction. A million dollars rides on the driver able to cross the finish line first following 90 or so laps at The Beast of the Southeast. Saturday night’s NASCAR Sprint All Star Race will be run in 4-20 lap segments, with the four segment-winners staging at the front of the field for the final 10-lap shootout to the wire for the cool million. 90 or more laps will make up the All Star race this year, as only green flag laps count in the final 10-lap shootout.

Jeff Gordon leads all active drivers in NASCAR Sprint All-Star Race wins, with three under his belt already. Carl Edwards made his mark on Charlotte Motor Speedway last season when he practically ripped the front end of his Ford Fusion off from the rest of the car, following his turn through the front-stretch grass in celebration of his first NASCAR Sprint All-Star Race win.

Some big names still need to race (or be voted) into the big dance on Saturday Night, namely Dale Earnhardt Jr., Martin Truex Jr., Jeff Burton, and Jamie McMurray. The way to earn a ticket to the big dance – finish in the top two of the Sprint Showdown is a surefire way, the other – be at the top of the Sprint Fan Vote. Much like Friday and Saturday night home-track races, there’s an A-main and a B-main tonight in Concord. The Sprint Showdown will be ran in two segments of 20 laps each, with the top two finishers moving onto tonight’s A-main.
With the absence of NASCAR Sprint Cup Championship points comes an extreme level of action and daring driving. Settling for second is never a thought in the NASCAR Sprint All-Star race, making it one of my favorite race weekends of the entire Sprint Cup season.

Darlington Recap

The Lady in Black tamed my recent hot streak of winner picks last week, a result of the toughness Darlington Raceway brings to the sport.

I picked last week’s pole-sitter, Greg Biffle to win the Bojangles’ Southern 500, a move that looked fairly promising for 74 or so laps last Saturday Night. Biffle’s car seemed to go away as the laps ticked away, battling loose conditions through the latter of the laps at Darlington. He ran in the top-10 for the majority of the race, but the late-race caution set the field up for a green-white-checkered finsh. Biffle restarted 10th, but his 3M Ford Fusion was too much of a handful to muscle into the top-10, ultimately crossing the finish line in 12th.

My Dark Horse last week qualified for the Bojangles’ Southern 500 in the sixth spot, and ended the race one spot better in fifth. Martin Truex Jr. also battled a loose condition throughout the duration of the race and ran as high as first, but only faltered back to 11th last week. He lead a season high 25 laps and managed to hold his 5th place spot in the championship points standings.

All-Star Picks

There is so much to pick for tonight’s All-Star festivities, so I will try to keep my picks short and sweet this week…

Sprint Showdown

Kicking off tonight’s on-track activities is the B-main or LCQ (if you’re used to motorcycle racing), otherwise known as the Sprint Showdown. The Showdown is packed with guys eager to have a shot at racing for the cool million, but its Martin Truex Jr. and Jeff Burton that will punch their tickets to the big dance by racing their way into the A-main. Both will start in the top-5 for the Showdown and practiced well on Friday.

Fan Vote

Dale Earnhardt Jr. will not race his way into the Sprint All-Star race, but will have a shot at the million via JR Nation. The will vote in droves following his third-place effort in the Sprint Showdown, but JR will start last on the grid for the NASCAR All-Star Race by receiving the 2012 fan vote for the second straight year.

NASCAR Sprint All-Star Race
Here’s the segment winners first:
1- Kyle Busch
2- Jimmie Johnson
3- Jeff Gordon
4 – Tony Stewart

Starting in the top-4 spots of the 10-lap shootout for tonight’s million-dollar purse will be one Toyota and three Chevrolets. In the end, it will be Stewart claiming victory in the All-Star race. He was at Thursday night’s Pit Crew Challenge, and was disappointed when his Stewart-Haas Racing crew was knocked out of the competition in the semi-finals. The defending NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Champion is out for revenge tonight and will go home a million dollars richer when the checkered falls.

That’s all for this week, so until next week’s Monaco Grand Prix, Indy 500, and Coke 600…You Stay Classy NASCAR NATION!

May 19, 2012
Matty’s Picks 2012 – Vol. 11 Darlington Raceway – Bojangles’ Southern 500 – May 12, 2012

[media-credit name=”darlingtonraceway.com” align=”alignright” width=”199″][/media-credit]Tonight we head to NASCAR’s oldest superspeedway. The track “Too Tough to Tame” is the spot for the 63rd running of Bojangles’ Southern 500 tonight on FOX, (live 7 p.m. ET) and when the engines fire tonight, it will be the last time the 43-cars making the start tonight have four straight fenders. The cars that exit the racetrack this weekend will surely go to the same scrap pile as the cars raced at Bristol and Martinsville. With the aging track surface and 43 drivers itching to claim hardware from The Lady in Black, the fenders will connect tonight when the green flag files.

Darlington Raceway dates all the way back to 1950 as NASCAR’s first asphalt oval that measured over a 1/2-mile in length. The track’s first NASCAR race was held on Labor Day in 1950, won by Californian Johnny Mantz in a six-cylinder Plymouth, amongst a field of 75 cars! Much like this month’s Indianapolis 500, the first Southern 500 staged a 2-week qualifying scheme to whittle down the field of more than 80 entrants and align the 75 car field into 25 rows of three cars. When the dust settled, it was Mantz, driving a car owned by Bill France Sr., that would claim the $25,000 purse, a reward that was 7-times the average wage in 1950.

Talladega Recap

I had the honor of watching last week’s Aaron’s 499 with a very close family friend whom happens to be a Brad Keselowski fan (or maybe he’s just a fan of the Blue Deuce, or Miller Lite, or maybe just beer in general), and I have to give him credit for my win last week in Alabama. I happened to be writing my column last Saturday afternoon when Uncle Scotty walked through my front door, and I admit to asking his advice with my picks last week. “Pick Bad Brad” he said, “Remember when we were at Talladega and he put (Carl) Edwards in the fence for his first win. The kid can race in Alabama.”

Thanks Uncle Scotty for the pick as Brad Keselowski ran as flawless of a race last week by Talladega standards as ‘flawless’ comes. Keselowski put himself in second coming out of the final turn at the 2.66-mile superspeedway, a position which conventional wisdom says the driver in the second spot on the final lap of a restrictor-plate race has a much better chance of winning than the leader.

“I had this whole plan if I ever got in that situation where I was leading,” Keselowski said. “I thought about it and thought about it — dreamed about what to do — and sure enough, going into (Turn) 3, it was just me and (Kyle) Busch. And I knew the move I wanted to pull.”

“. . . I went into Turn 3 high and pulled down off of Kyle and broke the tandem up. That allowed me to drive untouched to the checkered flag. It wasn’t easy to convince myself to do that, but it was the right move. I’m glad it worked.”

My Dark Horse pick, Joey Logano got caught up in a wreck with 10-laps to go and finished 26th. I guess sometimes you just have to take the hi’s with the low’s.

Darlington Picks

Winner Pick

As much as I hate to jump on the Biffle bandwagon, I believe it is in my best interest to make an educated pick this week and go with the Roush-Fenway racing driver. He’s starting from the pole at a track where passing is extremely difficult to complete and the eventual race-winner has come from the pole position 19-times, you’ve got to go with a driver starting towards the front tonight.

Once in the last 10 races at Darlington has a driver won the race after starting the race outside the top-12 positions. That one time occurring in last year’s Southern 500 when Regan Smith made a late-race gamble to stay on-track and not take on tires during the race’s 11th and final caution, a call that would win him the race after starting in 23rd.

Biffle enters the weekend as the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series’ points leader, and took the pole by breaking the tie between Jimmie Johnson and Kasey Kahne for the top spot late in qualifying Friday evening. He was second fastest in both NASCAR Sprint Cup Series’ practice sessions yesterday at the track Too Tough To Tame. The last time Biffle started from the pole at Darlington was back in 2008, and the top spot was not too kind to the Washington native, as he blew an engine and finished just 234 of the scheduled 367 laps at The Lady in Black, finishing dead last in 43rd. I’m hoping Lady Luck is on my side tonight and Biffle becomes the 20th winner from the pole at Darlington Raceway.

Dark Horse Pick

I’m not sure you can qualify the guy sitting 6th in NASCAR Sprint Cup Series points a Dark Horse, but a Dark Horse isn’t always a driver that is way outside the realm of possibility of winning. This week it’s a guy that tends to fly under the radar of most NASCAR writers and fans. Martin Truex Jr. has been leading the charge of Michael Waltrip Racing drivers to boost the Toyota team to the upper echelon of race teams. Last week’s 28th-place finish marked Truex’s worst finish of the season, and he is looking for a quick rebound this week at a track where he has finished no-better than 6th in his six tries to tame The Lady in Black.

6th in the first practice Friday afternoon, Truex slipped back to 12th on the leader board during Happy Hour, and rebounded to claim a starting spot for his NAPA Auto Parts Toyota in the third-row tonight in South Carolina. He’s had a great season so far, and a win tonight at Darlington would make a statement that Michael Waltrip Racing is a force to be reckoned with in the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series.

That’s all for now, so until the All-Stars come out in Charlotte…You Stay Classy NASCAR NATION!!

PS: Happy Mother’s Day to all the NASCAR Moms this weekend!

May 12, 2012
Matty’s Picks 2012 – Vol. 10 Talladega Superspeedway – Aaron’s 499 – May 6, 2012

[media-credit name=”talladegasuperspeedway.com” align=”alignright” width=”163″][/media-credit]499 or so miles will make up the Aaron’s 499 tomorrow afternoon, and all 499 miles will surely be filled with chaos throughout the 43-car field. A slue of rule changes has been passed down by NASCAR officials to break up the two car tango, which we saw last season. The racing during first and only restrictor plate race of the season at Daytona was a mix of the two car tango and pack drafting. Throw out the jet-dryer fiasco and you still had a fantastic kickoff to the 2012 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series season. Tomorrows race in Alabama should be no different.

Richmond Recap

I am not one to brag, but when you perfect something, its worth talking about… As today is the day of the 138th Kentucky Derby, I will claim to have hit the exacta last weekend in Richmond.

My winner pick last week ended up in Victory Lane at the end of the night, my first win of the season. Kyle Busch did not completely dominate the race last weekend, and if it wasn’t for a late-race caution, defending Sprint Cup Series Champion Tony Stewart would have went on to win the Capitol 400. In the end, it was the pit crew of the No. 18 M&M’s Toyota that boosted Busch to victory in Old Dominion. Knowing the last stop of the night was the most important, the No. 18 team put together a stop that allowed Busch to win the race off pit road and hold off the field for the remaining 12 or so laps. It was Rowdy’s fourth consecutive win in the spring race at Richmond, and my first win of the season.
My dark horse impressed many with his performance last weekend at RIR, but the winless streak stands at 138 races for Dale Earnhardt Jr. Although he failed to reach the point last week, Jr had the best shot he’s had all year to snap the winless streak. Jr Nation had a glimpse of hope on the final restart, but Dale Jr was not quick enough to reach the bumper of the No. 18. Dale Earnhardt Jr. finished second, completing my exacta for last weekend.

Talladega Picks

Much like my Daytona picks earlier this season, my Talladega picks will be a craps shoot. Practice speeds, starting spots, and historical data all go out the window when the green flag flies at Talladega. Being built on a Native American burial ground, Talladega Superspeedway has a history of wild races.

Winner Pick

My winner pick this week is the pilot of the No. 2 Miller Lite Dodge. My first trip to Talladega was marked by Brad Keselowski’s pass on Carl Edwards on the final lap for his first win in the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series. His stats are decent at Talladega, unlike his record at Daytona. 4 of his 5 top-10’s, both his top-5’s, and his only win on superspeedways have come at Talladega. Keselowski looked good in today’s Aaron’s 312 until the big one with three laps to go. He’s looking to balance his misfortune at Daytona earlier this year and claim his second victory of 2012.

Dark Horse Pick

A guy that seems to fly under the radar each week is Joey Logano. He might have stole my thunder today however, when he passed Kyle Busch for the win in today’s Aaron’s 312. Logano is a B-list starter for me on my fantasy team this week, and much like Keselowski performs a bit better at Talladega than Daytona. He has two top-5’s and four top-10’s at the superspeedway, and a respectable average finish of 14.5 at the 2.66-mile speedway. Watch for Logano to find help early in the race and finish the race towards the top of the leader board tomorrow.

That’s all for this week so until we head to Darlington…You Stay Classy NASCAR NATION!

May 6, 2012
Matty’s Picks 2012 – Vol. 10 Richmond International Raceway – Capital City 400 presented by Virginia is for Lovers – April 27, 2012

[media-credit id=42 align=”alignright” width=”234″][/media-credit]Virginia is for Lovers, except when you are talking about the four weekends the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series goes short-track racing Old Dominion. The beating and banging of Martinsville Speedway and Richmond International Raceway mirror the short-track action Friday and Saturday nights that we all grew up on, and really take me back to some of my best times as a race fanatic. The race Saturday Night will surely be filled with fireworks and the Virginia beating and banging we’re all so fond of.

Before I get into last week’s recap, I’d like to extend a thank you to Mr. Bruton Smith and all of Speedway Motorsports Inc. for listening to the fans regarding the modifications of Bristol Motor Speedway. Since the reconfiguration and addition of progressive banking in 2007, attendance at Bristol has steadily on the decline. I was in complete awe this March when The Last Great Coliseum was half-full at best for the spring race. I can remember a few of my first trips to Bristol when there were 10,000 race fans standing in front of the gates looking for extra tickets. It was a miracle to scalp the hardest ticket in NASCAR back then, and was a miracle if you could find a seat at face-value.

Ultimately, it’s the fans that keep our sport alive, not the drivers, not the sponsors, not the owners… The fans are the ones spending the money to travel to the track week-in and week-out to watch 43 of the most talented drivers in the world, and when they speak, those with decision-making abilities must listen. Its not the drivers (unless they feel changes would render the track unsafe or un-drivable) that should be the tell-all in these types of decisions. If they’re not happy with the decision to tighten up the corners at Bristol, too bad, SMI must act in the best interests of NASCAR and what will put fans in the grandstands. The drivers may have liked the wide-open racing grooves over the past 5 years at Bristol Motor Speedway, but 300-something laps without a caution flag is not Bristol.

I am excited to get back to the way racing used to be in Eastern Tennessee, and I think the track change will boost attendance back to the days when the night race at Bristol was the toughest ticket in all of NASCAR.

Kansas Recap

I can’t say too much about the race last week because I didn’t catch a single lap of the STP 400. My race recap will be as exciting as the race itself last week (so I hear)…

My winner pick was points-leader Greg Biffle last week, and all I really know is he finished 4th last week, giving me my second top-5 in as many weeks.

I picked my Dark Horse last week before the STP 400 qualifying session, and after I found out my Dark Horse eventually turned into last week’s pole-sitter, I was even more excited about my pick. But like many of my picks this season, he let me down. I now see that AJ Allmendinger finished 10-laps down in 32nd, adding to my less than impressive string of finishes this season.

Richmond Picks

Some people say you must hit rock bottom before you can start your climb to the top. I’m hoping that I’ve hit rock bottom just 1/4th of the way through this 2012 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series season, and can still salvage a respectable average finish with the remainder of my picks.

Winner Pick

It shouldn’t be much of a surprise as to who I pick this week to win the Capital City 400 as his stats at the ¾-mile short track. He is the defending winner of this spring race, and has two other victories at RIR under his belt. In total, Kyle Busch has finished first or second in 7 of the last 11 races at Richmond, an absolutely phenomenal statistic. He has won the race at Richmond from as far back as 20th, and came from 34th in the spring of 2007 to finish second.

Overall, Kyle Busch has an average finish of 5.0 in 14 races in Virginia’s capital city, and is desperate to boost his points resume as he currently sits 13th, out of the Chase for the Sprint Cup. In the other two short-track races at Bristol and Martinsville this season, Rowdy finished 32nd and 36th respectively, a stat unfitting for a guy who has won nearly 20% of the races he’s started on a short-track.

He’s struggling to find speed as I look at the current charts (23rd fastest after 69 laps in this first practice session), but when the green flag flies, Rowdy will kick into high gear and wind up in Victory Lane.

Dark Horse Pick

This pick is what those of us involved with fantasy drafts often like to call “a reach”. I’m going way out on a whim to say that the JR Nation winless streak has a better chance than any race thus far to come to a close this weekend. It has been 1,412 days, 137 races, and a lifetime supply of Kleenex since JR Nation was graced with a win, and quite frankly I am ready for the streak to end.

Besides Chicago Cubs Fans, JR Nation may be the second-most cursed fan base in the country. 137 races is unthinkable for the sport’s most popular driver, and Richmond is a fine place for the streak to end. Earnhardt Jr knows his way to victory lane at the short-track with three wins, eight top-5’s, and five top-10’s in 25 starts. Each of the four Hendrick Motorsports drivers is gunning for Hendrick Motorsports’ 200th Sprint Cup Series victory.

It may be coincidence that JR’s last win before his victory at Michigan in June 2008 was at Richmond International Raceway, or it may just be time for the streak to come to a close.

Either way, JR is 4th in points and 15th on the speed charts following the first practice session of the day in Old Dominion.

That’s all for this week so until we head to Talladega…You Stay Classy NASCAR NATION!

April 27, 2012