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  • Matty’s Picks 2015 – Vol. 2 – Atlanta Motor Speedway

    Matty’s Picks 2015 – Vol. 2 – Atlanta Motor Speedway

    The 2015 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series is off and running and taking shape with its own headlines. Whether it’s Jeff Gordon’s farewell tour, domestic violence in the sport, driver safety, stolen race cars, or the qualifying fiascoes, the 2015 is quickly creating its own identity just two weeks into the eleven-month racing season.

    This week, we’re at Atlanta Motor Speedway, a race that was moved from the end of August/early September to the number two slot in the series schedule. The never-ending winter this year may have it’s way with the scheduling of the Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 on Sunday, however, with a 50 percent chance of rain and temperatures expected to be in the mid 40’s on Sunday. As the most recent winter weather system moves across the Midwest and into the Southeast, the teams have more to compete with than just the weather this weekend in Atlanta, like thieves, and passing inspection.

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  • Matty’s Picks 2015 – Volume 1 – Daytona

    Matty’s Picks 2015 – Volume 1 – Daytona

    After a one-year sabbatical, Matty’s Picks is back for the 2015 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series season. I had a great year last year, enjoying a few races from the stands as a fan, but I’m back in action this year on the keyboard and behind the camera lens bringing you my less than expert picks for the races each Sunday.

    This year, I’ve decided to expand my picks and because the world of fantasy sports has exploded since the first Matty’s Picks column hit SpeedwayMedia.com back in 2010, I’ll be sharing my Fox Sports Fantasy Auto roster each week. In case anyone is unfamiliar with the Fox Sports Fantasy Auto rules, here’s the skinny; Each week, participants pick a roster of up to five drivers who are given a value each week based on past performances, stats and trends. Players are given a pool of $50,000 to play with each week and drivers earned points based on laps led, positions gained and finishing position. I’ll provide a brief recap of my weekly picks, provide an update of how my team is stacking up and even mix in some Vegas odds for those who might be interested in some financial advice throughout the season.

    Hoping to have a bit more success in picking winners this year than in 2013, the year before my sabbatical from sports writing, I’ll be soliciting advice throughout the season, so feel free to drop me a note with your picks throughout the season at mattl@speedwaymedia.com.

    Wasting no time getting into my picks for The Great American Race, I’ll disclaimer my column this week by letting everyone know my picks were made prior to the finish of both of the Budweiser Duel at Daytona races on Thursday night – my once-a-year excuse for making poor picks due to the qualifying procedures for the Daytona 500. Without further ado, here are my picks to start the 2015 season off this Sunday at the 2.5-mile superspeedway in Daytona Beach, Florida:

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  • Matty’s Picks 2013 – Race 35 AdvoCare 500 – Phoenix International Raceway – November 10, 2013

    Matty’s Picks 2013 – Race 35 AdvoCare 500 – Phoenix International Raceway – November 10, 2013

    The West Coast swing of the 2013 Chase for the Sprint Cup is on this weekend as we head for the one-miler in the desert. This thing is coming down to the wire between five-time NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Champion, Jimmie Johnson, and seven-time 2013 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series race-winner Matt Kenseth. Just seven points separate the two heading into this weekend’s AdvoCare 500, and ironically, this was the same margin Jimmie Johnson had over 2012 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Champion, Brad Keselowski heading into the 9th race of the Chase last season.

    Phoenix has been an important race since the series swapped to the Chase setup, as the worst finish in a Chase race by the eventual series champion at Phoenix International Raceway is 10th, by Kurt Busch in 2004. Adding to the importance this weekend is the fact that the average Chase race finish by the eventual series champion at Phoenix International Raceway is 3.7! The catalyst in all of this is the fact that in each of previous three seasons, the eventual NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Champion was sitting second in the points standings following the 8th Chase Race. Jimmie Johnson erased a 33 point deficit over the final two Chase races in 2010 to score his fifth and most recent NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Championship. Tony Stewart was three points behind Carl Edwards in 2011 and erased the deficit in the final race at Homestead-Miami to capture his second Chase Championship, and as mentioned previously, Brad Keselowski sat seven points behind Jimmie Johnson entering this race last season. So, will it be Jimmie Johnson flipping the trend over the last three seasons to exit the 8th Chase race and not look back, or will it be Matt Kenseth keeping the streak alive to take the trophy next weekend and erasing the seven-point deficit over the next two weeks?

    As far as Phoenix, specifically, its 100% advantage Jimmie Johnson this week if you’re looking at the career histories at Phoenix. Johnson leads the series in six loop stats, (Average Running Position, Driver Rating, Fastest Laps Run, Average Green Flag Speed, and Quality Passes) he’s had top-five finishes in 12 of the last 14 races at Phoenix International Raceway, and far and away owns the better record than Matt Kenseth in career victories, top-fives, top-tens, average finish, and laps led. Also keep in mind, Matt Kenseth’s last top five finish at the desert one-miler was all the way back in 2007, his one and only win (three less than Jimmie Johnson) at PIR came in 2002, and his average finish is 17.2, so not only is Kenseth battling the Goliath named Jimmie Johnson this week, but he’s battling an Achilles heel of his own this weekend.

    Enough about the points battle, on to my picks this week…

     

    Winner Pick

    I may be completely out of material for my winner pick this week, outside of practice and qualifying…you guessed it, tough not to like Jimmie Johnson this week. He was fastest in practice on Friday, broke the track record in qualifying to capture the pole for Sunday’s AdvoCare 500, and carries the momentum of last week’s perfect win. Seriously, Johnson scored a perfect 150 Driver Rating in his dominating win last week at Texas Motor Speedway, the fourth ever perfect Driver Rating in Chase history.

    Denny Hamlin commented on the state of the No.48 team following Friday’s qualifying session, “I think everyone in the garage kind of knew (the No.48 team) could turn it up at will”. Joey Logano also commented on how the Hedrick Motorsports team is in “kill mode”, Logano says “(Johnson) has that next notch and extra speed that nobody else can find. His intensity level picks up.”

    Well boys, I’m right there with you this week and even though I didn’t find a header in the stats column entitled “kill mode”, I’m going with the overwhelming favorite, and now pole-sitter Jimmie Johnson this week. One piece of history besides Johnson’s impressive history at PIR that I do have to help my cause this week is the fact that seven of the 34 NASCAR Sprint Cup races at Phoenix have been won from starting positions on the front row….not that I need any help in making my point this week.

     

    Dark Horse Pick

    Now, if you’ve been listening to my preview of the race each week with Greg on the Prime Sports Network, you may have noticed an ongoing trend since mid-June or so. Each time when we reach the time to talk about Denny Hamlin, you’ve probably heard me laugh or say “steer clear of Denny this week”. Well, this week I have a bit different take on Denny Hamlin for a few reasons.
    Number one, Denny Hamlin has been coming around down the stretch here in the Chase, and is certainly a far cry away from where he was at a couple months back. Three top 5’s in the last four races mark’s Hamlin’s best stretch of runs since he ran second at Darlington, finished fourth in the Coke 600, and finished eighth in the June Pocono race. He’s climbing back to relevancy in the latter stages of this year’s Chase, and will use these remaining two races this season to springboard his team into the 2014 season.

    The number two reason for picking Denny Hamlin is his career history, not only at Phoenix but as a top tier driver in the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series. Since his first full season in the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series in 2006, Denny Hamlin has managed to find Victory Lane at least once in each of his seven full seasons in the Cup series. Out of the two remaining racetracks this season, Phoenix is certainly the better chance for Hamlin to keep his streak alive. He’s got an average finish of 5.8 in the last five races at PIR, including a win in 2012, three additional top 5’s, 116 total laps led, and an average driver rating of 104.2 over that same five-race stretch, so Hamlin has the recent stats worth a look this week.

    Adding to my statement this week is the stat I mentioned above….over 20% of the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series races at PIR have been won from starting spots on the front row, and Denny Hamlin just happens to be starting second on Sunday. Not only did Denny qualify well, but he also practiced well on Friday to earn my nod as the Dark Horse play of the week.

     

    That’s all for this week, so until we head to South Florida for the 2013 Grand Finale….You Stay Classy NASCAR NATION!

  • Matty’s Picks 2013 – Race 31 Bank of America 500 – Charlotte Motor Speedway – October 12, 2013

    Matty’s Picks 2013 – Race 31 Bank of America 500 – Charlotte Motor Speedway – October 12, 2013

    The drivers of the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series do not have to travel much further than their back yards to get to the track this week. A hometown race this week, and the only night race of the 2013 Chase for The Sprint Cup for the vast majority of teams this week. There have been 109 races at Charlotte Motor Speedway, everyone knows the history that has been made at the track, so I’ll spare the history for some statistics this week.

    Jimmie Johnson leads the series with the most Chase race wins at Charlotte Motor Speedway with three, but none since his last win at Charlotte in October of 2009. The deepest in the field any eventual NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Champion has finished at the Chase race at Charlotte Motor Speedway was 25th all the way back in 2005 when Tony Stewart won his second NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Championship, his first with the Chase setup. All but one of the nine Chase races at Charlotte have been won by Chase drivers, and the second starting position has produced more race winners than any other starting position with 17 eventual race winners starting outside the front row. So with these stats so far, we’ve not eliminated any potential race winners.

    The one statistic very important to this week’s picks comes in the form of a particular manufacturer’s recent struggles at Charlotte Motor Speedway. Just one Ford driver (who is driving a Toyota now) has won a race at Charlotte in the last 22 Charlotte races, and that was Matt Kenseth in the 2011 Bank of America 500. So one driver in 11 years has been able to put Ford in Victory Lane, which is something to look at this week if you’re making fantasy picks.

    The only night race of the 2013 Chase for the Sprint Cup, so enjoy not swapping back and forth between your NFL game and NASCAR this week…

    Kansas Recap

    Not a great week for me last week at Kansas Speedway as I went with the points leader, Matt Kenseth as my winner pick because he was undefeated on the low-banked intermediate tracks this season. He had won at Las Vegas in March, Kansas in April, Kentucky in June, and Chicago in September to open the 2013 Chase. Kenseth’s streak would end last week at Kansas has he was rather quiet for the majority of the race….but extended his streak of 5 straight races where he has led a lap. Kenseth finished 11th, his first finish outside the top 10 in over a month.

    My Dark Horse was exactly that, a shot in the dark especially this season. The dark horse aspect was erased when Brad Keselowski qualified fourth and got to the front for 52 laps last week in Kansas. Crew Chief Paul Wolfe’s gamble with fuel would not pan out as the Miller Lite Ford ran out of fuel on lap 224, the gamble cost Keselowski two laps to the leader which he was able to make up one, but would finish 17th when the checkered flag flew.

    Charlotte Picks

    Winner Pick
    There are many folks looking at the No.18 team this week, for one he has won two races on the high banked intermediate tracks this season, in dominating fashion at Texas in April and most recently at Atlanta on Labor Day weekend. The second reason why Rowdy Busch is circled on may fantasy rosters this week is the thought that he is due for a win at Charlotte Motor Speedway in the Cup Series. Rewind to Memorial Day weekend this season…Kyle Busch was leading the Coca-Cola 600, in the middle of lap traffic when Fox Sports’ SkyCam over the frontstretch at Charlotte Motor Speedway came crashing to the race surface immediately in front of the No.18 car. The impact of the SkyCam resulted in radiator issues and an engine failure for Kyle who was positioned for his first ever Charlotte career win.

    The loop statistics are great for a guy who has never won a race…he’s in the top three in all but one of the loop categories. The only one he is not inside the top three is Green Flag Passes, but Kyle has also qualified well over the years in North Carolina with a couple poles in the points races and an average start of 11.5. The practice sessions today and his win in the NASCAR Nationwide Series on Friday at Charlotte have added to my case for Kyle Busch on Saturday night. I am seeing a win out of this team on Saturday night and them jumping back into the Championship picture when we head to Talladega next week.

    Dark Horse Pick
    Martin Truex Jr. is going to be my longer play this week and here is why…Before Kansas last week and the race at Chicagoland to open the Chase, you had to go back all the way to Las Vegas back in March of 2012 for Truex’s last finish outside the top 15 on any of these intermediate track races. The stretch of 15-straight top 15 finishes is enhanced by the fact that he had two finishes outside the top 10 in the same stretch, both of which coming in the 2012 season.

    Keep in mind Truex led 142 laps and finished 2nd at Texas back in April, also a 1.5-mile night race. Truex qualified 17th on Thursday, but went out for his qualifying run relatively early to some of the other drivers with similar practice speeds. On Friday, Truex was 3rd fastest in the first practice session and 5th in Happy Hour Friday evening, adding to the consistency we’ve seen all season from Truex on these intermediate tracks. He would like nothing more than to win one of these Chase races, so I’m throwing out the couple poor finishes in a row at Chicago and Kansas and going with Truex as a solid longer play this week.

    That’s all for this week, so until we head to the biggest juggernaut of the 2013 Chase for the Sprint Cup….You Stay Classy NASCAR NATION!

  • Matty’s Picks 2013 Race 30 – Kansas Speedway – October 6, 2013

    Matty’s Picks 2013 Race 30 – Kansas Speedway – October 6, 2013

    Disclaimer: My column this week will be as exciting to read as I anticipate the race being on Sunday afternoon…scroll down for picks.

    Kansas Speedway is certainly one of the cookie-cutter races that the Chase schedule has to offer. The variable 17 to 20 degrees of banking in the corners plus the 10 degrees on the frontstretch leaves much to be desired for those looking for an exciting Sunday afternoon of racing. Even though the last two races at Kansas (since the mid-season repave in 2012) produced more cautions than the previous four races combined, they also produced the least amount of lead changes at Kansas speedway since the second ever race at the track back in 2002.

    One interesting statistic I was able to uncover this week has to do with Chase races being won by non-Chase drivers. There have been 14 Chase races won by non-Chase drivers in the history of the Chase for the Sprint Cup, that is now 93 total races. Three of those 14 races have been won at Kansas Speedway as Joe Nemechek became the first ever spoiler in the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series winning the fall race of 2004 as a non-Chase driver. The other two races by non-Chase drivers were won by Tony Stewart in 2006 and Greg Biffle in 2007, so it has been a while, but with the parody we saw in the regular season, certainly anything can happen on Sunday. With 7 of the top 15 qualifiers for Sunday’s Hollywood Casino 400 being non-Chase drivers, the possibility of a spoiler this week is certainly valid.

    Winner Pick

    It’s onto my picks already this week and no surprises here, I will be going with Matt Kenseth this week. I couldn’t find a single reason to not pick Kenseth this week, he’s won the last two races at Kansas, he also won at Chicagoland, Kentucky Speedway, and Las Vegas Motor Speedway this season, all which happen to be the tracks most similar to Kansas Speedway.
    On top of all the wins at similar tracks this season, Kenseth is second, third, or fourth in 4 of the loop stats, the most important – Driver Rating- he’s third on the list at 110.0. Kenseth also qualified very well on Friday, important because 9 of the 15 Kansas races have been won from starting spots inside the top-10. Kenseth will start seventh on Sunday, and was second in the second practice session on Friday, fourth in Happy Hour earlier today, too much to like here about Kenseth, he’s my Winner Pick for Sunday.

    Dark Horse Pick

    It’s not every day you can take a NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Champion as a Dark Horse, but because Brad Keselowski is not a part of this year’s Chase for the Sprint Cup, I’m going with him as a Dark Horse this weekend. This team has been fairly non-existent since that solid stretch of runs to start the 2013 season, since the series visited Kansas Speedway in particular. Brad was 7th at Chicagoland, the most recent cookie-cutter of the season, his 5th top 10 finish in that 19 race stretch since the April Kansas race, so I’m going on a bit of a hunch here, but I like Brad’s chances this week.

    You can not look past the fact that he’s got an average finish of 9.2 in his 7 career races at Kansas Speedway. He’s qualified his Miller Lite Ford Fusion in the 4th starting position and has shown speed in all of the practice sessions at Kansas this week. He was a longer play to start the week, the odds have not shortened a bit, Brad is a solid longer play this week.

    That’s all for this week, so until we turn the lights on in Charlotte…You Stay Classy NASCAR NATION!

  • Matty’s Picks 2013 – Race 26 Federated Auto Parts 400 – Richmond International Raceway – September 7, 3013

    Matty’s Picks 2013 – Race 26 Federated Auto Parts 400 – Richmond International Raceway – September 7, 3013

    The cliché holds true this week as “it all comes down to this”. Six guys have already claimed their top-10 spots when The Chase begins next week at Chicago – Jimmie Johnson, Clint Bowyer, Kevin Harvick, Carl Edwards, Kyle Busch, and Matt Kenseth…that’s 2 Chevy’s, a Ford, and 3 Toyotas in case you’re keeping score.

    Seventh-place Dale Earnhardt Jr. faces the least pressure among non-qualifiers, needing only a finish of 32nd or better in the 400-lap race on Saturday night to enter the postseason. Joey Logano, Greg Biffle and Kurt Busch complete the provisional top 10 – 16, 14 and six points ahead of 11th-place Jeff Gordon who is still in the hunt for a top-10 spot going into the chase, as he stands no chance at making a Wild Card without a win on Saturday Night.

    Logano and Biffle each have a single victory giving them some Chase insurance as potential Wild Cards, but both have to turn around their historical finishes at Richmond to ensure they’re racing for a championship the next ten weeks.

    Former NASCAR Sprint Cup champions Kurt Busch and Jeff Gordon, however, both are without victories on the season and need to have solid finishes, along with poor finishes from other drivers to punch their tickets to the big dance starting next week at Chicagoland. Both have done what they need to do to lead a lap on Saturday by qualifying their Chevy’s on the front row, so it will be interesting to see if they can spoil a few Chase hopefuls by winning on Saturday Night. This Race is shaping up to be even more exciting than I expected with 3 Wild Card hopefuls staring in the top 3 spots on Saturday Night.

    Two-time 2013 race-winner Kasey Kahne (12th) and Sonoma winner, Martin Truex Jr. (13th) hold the provisional Wild Cards as the points run right now.

    Five drivers have clinched Chase berths on the final night of the regular season since the start of The Chase for the Sprint Cup began in 2004. Ryan Newman’s sixth-place finish in 2005 is the best among the “last in” drivers. Brian Vickers (2009), Kasey Kahne (2006) and Jeremy Mayfield (2004) also were final-race qualifiers. Most recently, Jeff Gordon waited until the final race of the season to solidify his spot in the chase by finishing second in this race last season, so this parody is nothing we’ve not seen before….but we’ve NEVER seen this many drivers on the fence for The Chase. The backstretch wall at Richmond has never seen as many car numbers in yellow (meaning the driver has NOT clinched a spot in the NASCAR Playoffs) as are painted in yellow this season, so for anyone whose never watched a NASCAR race before, Saturday Night is the one to watch.

    I will save my words this week and not recap my poor picks last week at Atlanta and roll right into my picks for Saturday Night’s Federated Auto Parts 400 (even though my Dark Horse Pick last week finished 3rd with a broken wrist).

    Winner Pick

    Richmond has been Clint Bowyer’s best track over his career, and to no surprise, he’s been the best driver statistically over the past 5 races at Richmond.

    Clint has finished outside the top 12 just twice in 15 races at Richmond – averaging a finish of 9th in the meantime. Bowyer is one of just 3 drivers averaging a top-10 finish at Richmond, behind Kyle Busch and Denny Hamlin for third on the best average finish at the 3/4 mile short track. He’s got a couple wins, most recently and notably his win in THIS race last season. In the loop stats, Bowyer is 4th in Average Running position, Driver Rating and Quality Passes, and he’s 5th in 2 more of the 6 loop stats, Average Green Flag Speed and Laps in the Top 15.

    Clint Bowyer holds the record for the deepest in the field ANY Richmond race-winner has started, that was his win from the 31st starting position back in 2008, and throw in the fact that he’s starting 4th on Saturday Night, Bowyer is still my top guy this week. Keep in mind, he led 113 laps and finished 2nd in the April race at Richmond…

    Dark Horse Pick

    I was on the fence on Thursday as I previewed the race with Greg on The Prime Sports Network, but after practice and qualifying, I’m a bit more confident with my selection do go with Dale Earnhardt Jr. as my Dark Horse guy this week.

    He was 7th in first practice and 3rd in Happy Hour earlier today at Richmond International Raceway, and probably took a conservative approach to his qualifying lap today as a 32nd or better finish will punch Jr.’s ticket to the big dance next week.

    Richmond actually ranks as Jr.’s 4th best track over his career with the other two short tracks ranking first (Bristol) and third (Martinsville), much to my surprise as everybody knows the Earnhardt’s for their restrictor-plate racing.

    Jr. has 3 career wins at Richmond, granted none since 2006 but in the loop stats he ranks anywhere from 6th in Fastest Laps Run to 13th in

    Driver Rating.

    Dale Jr. would certainly like to have those 3 bonus points to start The Chase, so I think we’re looking at him staying out of trouble early, then a march to the front during the closing laps on Saturday Night.

    That’s all for this week, enjoy the race and the hunt for The Chase and be sure to tune in Monday to the Prime Sports Network (www.primesportsnetwork.com) as Greg and all the folks from SpeedwayMedia.com preview the 2013 Chase for the Sprint Cup! And as always….You Stay Classy NASCAR (and Dale Earnhardt Jr.) NATION!

  • Matty’s Picks 2013 – Race 25 Advocare 500 – Atlanta Motor Speedway – September 1, 2013

    Matty’s Picks 2013 – Race 25 Advocare 500 – Atlanta Motor Speedway – September 1, 2013

    This week the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series heads to a fast, wide track this week at Atlanta Motor Speedway, with the two twins in the series to Atlanta being Charlotte and Texas with the familiar 24 degrees of banking in the corners and 5 degrees on the straightaway’s.

    It is fast, but it’s really known for producing some of the closest finishes in NASCAR History, including that first career win for Kevin Harvick over Jeff Gordon just a couple weeks after Dale Earnhardt’s death in 2001. That famous finish, 0.006 of a second margin of victory between the two Chevy’s.

    The Advocare 500 is a long race, 325 laps totaling 501 miles and there have been 105 NASCAR Sprint Cup races at Atlanta since the first race there in 1960 so a ton of data to pull from this week to make my picks.

    As far as qualifying goes this week, for once we’re not looking at the pole as being the most proficient starting position like most other circuits we visit each year. Believe it or not the 5th starting position has produced more Atlanta winners than any other starting position spot at 15 race-winners all-time starting from that 5th spot.

    26 of the 105 races all-time have been won from the front row, 60 of the 105 have been won from the top 5 starting spots, and 83 of the 105 races ever at Atlanta Motor Speedway have been won from a top-10 starting position. Making a good lap yesterday in qualifying is very important, even more so recently with 19 of the last 20 races, the last 16 in a row, have been won from the top 11 starting spots.

     

    Atlanta Picks

    On Thursday when I previewed Sunday’s Advocare 500 with Greg on the Prime Sports Network, my picks were spread among 6 drivers, but have now been pared down to a winner pick and a dark horse based on the results of qualifying. A few guys I had picked to take home the crown on Sunday night could not put it all together Friday evening to start in those coveted top 10 starting spots, so I’ve scratched them off the list.
    Two-time Atlanta winner and seven-time winner on the three twins (Atlanta, Charlotte, and Texas), Kasey Kahne split my number two spot on Thursday with the 2001 Spring Atlanta winner mentioned previously, Kevin Harvick. Well, both of which have qualified outside the top-10 spots, Kahne in 18th and Harvick in 30th so I’ve scratched those guys off my list this week.

    As for my 4th pick, Brian Vickers, he came out and qualified 22nd so again, can’t go with him this week.

    That leaves 3 guys from my preview Thursday with Greg that I still like for wins this week at Atlanta.

     

    Winner Pick

    This is a pick which I felt confident in on Thursday and solidified my confidence in him by qualifying 10th on Friday. Jimmie Johnson was the last guy to sweep the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series races at Atlanta in 2007 which notched his second and third wins at the Hampton, Ga racetrack. It is really tough to not like Jimmie’s numbers at Atlanta because he leads the series in Average finish at 11.0, Average Running Position, Driver Rating at 108.3, Average Green Flag Speed, and Laps inside the top 15, so that’s 4 of the 6 loop categories, the other two, Fastest Laps and Quality Passes, Johnson second in both.

    Here are my thoughts on Jimmie Johnson’s mentality going into this weekend’s Advocare 500. Matt Kenseth won last week at Bristol, so now Jimmie Johnson is not the top dog in the Chase anymore, so he’s got something to shoot for. I can’t go against the outstanding numbers this week, I have to go with Jimmie as my Winner and Top pick this week.

     

    Dark Horse Pick

    I had a few guys on Thursday who would have qualified as Dark Horses to win on Sunday. We’ve thrown Vickers out, so that still leaves two more picks which I consider solid sleeper picks this week.

    The first is the guy sitting on the pole this weekend, Ricky Stenhouse Jr. He won the Nationwide series race here last season and finished 3rd in his rookie Nationwide season in 2011. He has never raced at Atlanta in the Cup series so not much to go off except what he’s done at Texas and Charlotte so far this season. He finished 40th at Texas so we’ll throw that out, but in Speedweeks in Charlotte, he finished 2nd in the NASCAR Sprint Showdown, qualifying for the All-Star race and hung around the big boys for a 16th place finish. In the longest race of the year, Stenhouse managed to stay out of trouble and finish 14th after starting 30th, so I like that he’s put his Ford on the front row for tomorrow night’s race.

    The other guy I had penciled in for a Dark Horse win was Martin Truex Jr., broken wrist and all. Truex has managed to qualify his Toyota in 7th, a solid spot considering last year’s race-winner started from the 7th position.

    Truex has gotten progressively better since his first 2 starts at Atlanta where he finished 40th and 37th and the last 3 races have shown a bit of hope for Truex at Atlanta as he was 4th last season after starting 28th.

    What I like about Truex this week is that he’s finished 9th or better in all the Intermediate Tri-Ovals this season, (including Kansas and Las Vegas) most notably his runner up finish he had at Texas back in April when he led 142 laps. Truex is showing a bit more promise not only at Atlanta recently but this year on the tri-ovals, he is going to split my Dark Horse pick this week with Rick Stenhouse Jr.

    That’s all for this week, and be sure to stay tuned the next couple weeks as we roll on to the 2013 Chase for the Sprint Cup, so until we head to the last regular-season race of the year…..You Stay Classy NASCAR NATION!

  • Matty’s Picks Vol. 18 – Cheez-It 355 at The Glen – Watkins Glen International – August 10, 2013

    This week we travel back to the place that was the start of my NASCAR days. Sunday’s race at Watkins Glen International marks my 19th consecutive year at The Glen and it’s a track near and dear to my heart, and no matter where life takes me, it will always serve as my ‘Hometown Track’. The Glen may not be the most famous stock car track in the world, but it produces some of the best beating and banging NASCAR has to offer. The past two NASCAR Sprint Cup Series races at The Glen have also produced arguably the best finishes in as many seasons, so if you’re thinking about

    My first memories of WGI involve standing on a trash can on the inside of Turn 11 while my father tried to time a photo just right in order to capture a snapshot of The Intimidator and one of his biggest fans in the same frame. That moment is one of the most special memories I have in racing and is something that keeps me coming back year after year.

    In my teenage years, Ed Coombs taught me the art of obtaining autographs outside the motor-coach lots when Ron Hornaday invited me inside the fences and into his motor-coach for a quick autograph and meet and greet, so I’ve had some great experiences at The Glen over the years.

    I’ve had some great times at Watkins Glen over the years, and continue to add to my bank of memories each year.

    Now that the trip down memory lane is over, we can get to some numbers, and we’ll start with how important it is to qualify well at The Glen. Nine of the thirty races at Watkins Glen have been won from the pole position, including 3 straight wins from the pole for Mark Martin from 1993-1995. To add to my point, 22 of the 30 races all-time have been won from starting spots inside the top 10, and the furthest back a race winner has started was Steve Park from the 18th position back in 2000.

    The starting field has been set and two-time Watkins Glen winner and overwhelming favorite, Marcos Ambrose will start on the pole with Clint Bowyer sharing the front row with Ambrose. The other road-course winner in 2013, Martin Truex Jr. will start from the third position with another Toyota in AJ Allmendinger starting fourth. Kyle Busch will start fifth, and the Sonoma pole-sitter, Jamie McMurray will start next to Busch on row number three.

    Last year’s race finished in dramatic fashion as Marcos Ambrose and champion-to-be Brad Keselowski traded paint on and off the racing surface during the race’s final lap, also being voted as one of the best finishes in NASCAR HISTORY.

    Since practice, qualifying, and now the NASCAR Nationwide series race have all concluded, I’m ready to try and make some educated picks and share my thoughts for the outcome of tomorrow’s 28th Annual Cheez-It 355 at The Glen.

    Winner Pick

    On Wednesday, I previewed the race this weekend at The Glen with Greg on the Prime Sports Network, and I had Kyle Busch as my top pick, Marcos Ambrose as my number two guy, and Martin Truex Jr. and AJ Allmendinger as longshot plays this week. One factor in my picks on Wednesday which is a bit different than my column here on SpeedwayMedia.com is the odds at the time of my picks. On Wednesday, Marcos Ambrose was the overwhelming favorite to win at Watkins Glen this weekend. The odds were a bit better with Kyle Busch at 8 to 1 so I made him my top pick on Wednesday.

    Well, I’m going to swap my top pick for my number two pick from Wednesday for a couple of reasons. I’ve recently been making picks based on trends, not steering from the recent race trends. Here is the trend I found the last time a driver won three Sprint Cup races in a row at Watkins Glen International – they started on the pole at least once. Both Mark Martin and Jeff Gordon, the two drivers who have won three in a row at The Glen both started on the pole during their stretch of wins.

    Marcos Ambrose has two wins in a row at Watkins Glen going into Sunday’s race, and both of those wins were not from the pole or the front row even. The pole position is the most proficient starting spot in the field producing 9 wins in 30 races. The best road-course driver in stock car racing has that pole position for tomorrow’s Cheez-It 355 at The Glen and was extremely modest about his record-breaking lap after he claimed the Coors Light Pole,

    “It was a great lap. It wasn’t perfect. It wasn’t the cleanest lap I could have done, but it certainly carried a lot of momentum and it was enough to get the job done….We were the lucky one on the day to get the pole, so I’m very proud of our day. I’m looking forward to the race and feel like we have as good a chance as anybody to win and go three in a row.”

    It’s that confidence I like, and with his first practice session being spent in race trim and the No. 9 team being shown second on the speed charts, its’ Ambrose as my Winner Pick this week.

    Dark Horse Pick

    Unlike my winner pick, my Dark Horse or longer plays have not changed. I like both Martin Truex Jr. and AJ Allmendinger who were my longshot plays on Wednesday. It was Truex who was shown on top of the speed charts in first practice on Friday in both speed and best 10 lap average, and it’s Truex as my Dark Horse of the week.

    Martin Truex Jr. likes the car Michael Waltrip Racing has provided for him this week, and it’s again the confidence I like at a track as tough as Watkins Glen.

    “Typically we have not qualified well here. We always raced well. We had such a good car in race trim (on Friday). I felt like we were definitely the fastest car here and that kind of made me back off a little bit (in qualifying) to get a nice and consistent lap in.”

    Those are my picks, be sure to tune in to www.PrimeSportsNetwork.com  at 7:00PM tonight as Greg, Ed Coombs, and I give a final preview of tomorrow’s Cheez-It 355 at The Glen. Follow me on Twitter @ML_B_Lo for live action from Watkins Glen International.

    So, until next time…You Stay Classy NASCAR NATION!

  • Matty’s Picks Vol. 17 – Crown Royal Presents the Samuel Deeds 400 at The Brickyard Powered by BigMachineRecords.com – Indianapolis Motor Speedway – July 28, 2013

    Matty’s Picks Vol. 17 – Crown Royal Presents the Samuel Deeds 400 at The Brickyard Powered by BigMachineRecords.com – Indianapolis Motor Speedway – July 28, 2013

    The NASCAR Sprint Cup Series visits the famed 2.5-mile rectangle in the Midwest at Indianapolis Motor Speedway for the 20th time on Sunday for a 400-mile race which will certainly have some foreshadowing into the future this week and here is why. The race at IMS has some serious championship implications this week as 15 of the 19 races at the Brickyard have been won by series champions. The Indy race winner has gone on to capture the NASCAR Sprint Cup title in eight different seasons and Jimmie Johnson was the most recent in 2009, duplicating his Indy-Sprint Cup championship sweeps of 2006 and 2008.

    Indy has eluded the majority of the top 10 guys in points over the years as Jimmie Johnson and Kevin Harvick are the only two members of the current top 10 in the standings have won at The Brickyard.

    As far as the makes go, Chevy has been nearly invincible over the years at the brickyard as the last non-Chevrolet to win at IMS was Ray Evernham’s Dodge driven by a guy named Bill Elliot all the way back in 2001, in fact a General Motors product has won 15 of the 19 races held at the Brickyard which includes Bobby Labonte’s win for Pontiac in 2000.
    Nothing to recap this week as we had our first week off since Easter last week, so we’ll move on to the picks.

    Winner Pick
    On Thursday while previewing today’s race from the Brickyard with Greg Depalma on the Prime Sports Network, it was Kevin Harvick who I liked to win because of his flat-track history and the generous 20 to 1 odds that came along with him. Despite a couple solid practice sessions on Friday and Saturday, Karvick’s qualifying position has me a bit gun-shy to pull the trigger on him for this afternoon. Just 3 of the 19 races at the Brickyard have been won from starting spots 20th or worse, and Harvick qualified his Chevrolet 24th so though I still think he poses a solid threat for his 3rd victory of the season, I don’t think he’s got the car to beat this weekend.

    Instead, I’m going to swap my pick this week and go with the other guy I picked Thursday to win at The Brickyard in Kasey Kahne. Kasey has a lot going for him this weekend as first, he’s in a Chevy, second he finished runner up in the 2005 race in just his 2nd ever start at IMS, and 3rd he’s been fast all weekend. Kahne was 5th in the first practice, 2nd behind Kurt Busch in Happy Hour, and will roll off 7th when the green flag flies later this afternoon. I’ve got a hunch today, and I think we see Kasey Kahne kiss the bricks for the first time.

    Dark Horse Pick
    My Dark Horse driver has not changed from Thursday but the odds associated with my Dark Horse sure have. Juan Montoya started the week as a 30 to 1 longshot. He’s now just behind guys like four-time Brickyard winner Jeff Gordon and two-time winner Tony Stewart at 12 to 1 right now! This means I’m not the only person in the world to believe in this guy because of his history at IMS. This car has shown speed again this year at The Brickyard and after winning the first practice session, following up in 3rd on the charts during Happy Hour, and qualifying 8th, my pick from Thursday is looking better and better.

    If it wasn’t for a pit road speeding penalty back in 2009, Montoya’s name would have been etched in Brickyard history in the stock car category, and I think Juan is due for a win at The Brickyard.

    That’s all for this week, enjoy the race and until we are done with the flat tracks for a few weeks…..You Stay Classy NASCAR NATION!

  • Matty’s Picks 2013 – Vol. 16 Camping World RV Sales 301 – New Hampshire Motor Speedway – July 14, 2013

    Matty’s Picks 2013 – Vol. 16 Camping World RV Sales 301 – New Hampshire Motor Speedway – July 14, 2013

    On to New Hampshire this week before a much needed one week break before the series heads to the Brickyard.

    The site of Sunday’s Camping World RV Sales 301 is the one-mile flat track in Loudon, New Hampshire. It is the eighth and final stop during the regular season at a track which also hosts a race in this year’s Chase – the two tracks not in the regular season are the first and last races in this year’s chase – Chicago and Homestead.

    The funny part about all this is 7 different drivers have taken the new Gen-6 care to Victory lane on the chase tracks so far this season, and all but the Cinderella in David Ragan are in the top 10 in the points as the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series heads to New Hampshire.

    There is a bit of importance at the one-miler this week in the sense that a year ago, 7 of the top-10 finishers in the July race at New Hampshire, punched a ticket to the Chase in September. Its also noted that each member of the top 10 in the posts standings after the 19th race of the 2012 season also moved on to the NASCAR Postseason, so as boring of a race as this might be, there is some significance in finishing well in this race.

    New Hampshire’s summer race has seen 8 different winners in as many seasons and 10 straight different winners overall. Last year’s race-winners are both outside the top-10 in points, that’s Kasey Kahne and Denny Hamlin.

    Daytona Recap

    Not much to recap this week because of the relatively boring race at Daytona last week. My Winner Pick, the hottest guy in NASCAR right now, Kevin Harvick collected his eighth-consecutive top-10 finish after he finished third last weekend. Harvick started in 26th, and quickly dropped back in the field in the early stages of the race. A fuel-only pit stop on lap 127 would vault the team to 4th were he would remain for the green-white-checkered finish, picking up one spot on the final lap and finishing third.
    Harvick’s teammate, Paul Menard was my Dark Horse and finished dead last in 43rd after experiencing a terminal engine issue early in the 161-lap event.

    New Hampshire Picks

    I had a roster of guys on my list on Thursday when I previewed the race with Greg on the Prime Sports Network, and promised I would narrow down my picks for my column this week.
    As far as the Winner Picks went, I had four guys on my list who I thought were not longshots and had the best chance of winning on Sunday. Those guys were Kevin Harvick, Clint Bowyer, Tony Stewart, and Jeff Gordon. Only one of those guys has qualified inside the top-10 and that’s Jeff Gordon, but that stat doesn’t scare me because 5 of the last 8 races at New Hampshire have been won from starting spots 10th or worse, including 32nd by Denny Hamlin last season.

    Winner Pick

    It was Clint Bowyer who was the only one of the four guys to be shown in the top 10 in both practice sessions yesterday, and it’s Clint Bowyer who I’m going with as my Winner Pick.
    Clint Has:
    • Two wins, four top five’s, six top 10s; one pole
    • Average finish of 15.1
    • Average Running Position of 12.0, sixth-best
    • Driver Rating of 97.2, fifth-best
    • 230 Fastest Laps Run, sixth-most
    • Average Green Flag Speed of 124.466 mph, sixth-fastest

    Considering he was 3rd and 4th here last season in his first year with Michael Waltrip Racing, he’s 2nd in points WITHOUT A WIN, and the practice speeds, he’s my winner pick this week.

    Dark Horse Pick

    He might not be a Dark Horse any longer given the practice speeds and the fact that he will start the Camping World RV Sales 301 outside the front row, but he started the week as a 25 to 1 longshot and he’s my Dark Horse again this week.It was only a matter of time before we talked about Kurt Busch in the top 10 in points. This team is making strides, and jumping 5 spots in the points after last week’s run at Daytona is awesome for this one-car team. It’s remarkable to see these Furniture Row guys mix up the powerhouses like Hendrick, Roush, Gibbs, etc. with this team putting together some solid finishes since their unfortunate luck back in May at Talladega.

    The New Hampshire Stats look good with Kurt’s 3 wins and 7 Top 5’s.
    • Average finish of 14.8
    • 835 Green Flag Passes, seventh-most
    • 479 Quality Passes, fifth-most

    Granted, the majority of Kurt’s success at New Hampshire came with Penske and Roush, this one-car team has shown they belong in the talk with some of the powerhouse teams over the past two months, and Kurt is my Top Longshot again this week.

    That’s all for this week, so until we head to the Brickyard in TWO weeks…You Stay Classy NASCAR NATION!