Tag: NASCAR Sprint Cup Series

Matty’s Picks 2013 – Race 35 AdvoCare 500 – Phoenix International Raceway – November 10, 2013

The West Coast swing of the 2013 Chase for the Sprint Cup is on this weekend as we head for the one-miler in the desert. This thing is coming down to the wire between five-time NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Champion, Jimmie Johnson, and seven-time 2013 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series race-winner Matt Kenseth. Just seven points separate the two heading into this weekend’s AdvoCare 500, and ironically, this was the same margin Jimmie Johnson had over 2012 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Champion, Brad Keselowski heading into the 9th race of the Chase last season.

Phoenix has been an important race since the series swapped to the Chase setup, as the worst finish in a Chase race by the eventual series champion at Phoenix International Raceway is 10th, by Kurt Busch in 2004. Adding to the importance this weekend is the fact that the average Chase race finish by the eventual series champion at Phoenix International Raceway is 3.7! The catalyst in all of this is the fact that in each of previous three seasons, the eventual NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Champion was sitting second in the points standings following the 8th Chase Race. Jimmie Johnson erased a 33 point deficit over the final two Chase races in 2010 to score his fifth and most recent NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Championship. Tony Stewart was three points behind Carl Edwards in 2011 and erased the deficit in the final race at Homestead-Miami to capture his second Chase Championship, and as mentioned previously, Brad Keselowski sat seven points behind Jimmie Johnson entering this race last season. So, will it be Jimmie Johnson flipping the trend over the last three seasons to exit the 8th Chase race and not look back, or will it be Matt Kenseth keeping the streak alive to take the trophy next weekend and erasing the seven-point deficit over the next two weeks?

As far as Phoenix, specifically, its 100% advantage Jimmie Johnson this week if you’re looking at the career histories at Phoenix. Johnson leads the series in six loop stats, (Average Running Position, Driver Rating, Fastest Laps Run, Average Green Flag Speed, and Quality Passes) he’s had top-five finishes in 12 of the last 14 races at Phoenix International Raceway, and far and away owns the better record than Matt Kenseth in career victories, top-fives, top-tens, average finish, and laps led. Also keep in mind, Matt Kenseth’s last top five finish at the desert one-miler was all the way back in 2007, his one and only win (three less than Jimmie Johnson) at PIR came in 2002, and his average finish is 17.2, so not only is Kenseth battling the Goliath named Jimmie Johnson this week, but he’s battling an Achilles heel of his own this weekend.

Enough about the points battle, on to my picks this week…

Winner Pick

I may be completely out of material for my winner pick this week, outside of practice and qualifying…you guessed it, tough not to like Jimmie Johnson this week. He was fastest in practice on Friday, broke the track record in qualifying to capture the pole for Sunday’s AdvoCare 500, and carries the momentum of last week’s perfect win. Seriously, Johnson scored a perfect 150 Driver Rating in his dominating win last week at Texas Motor Speedway, the fourth ever perfect Driver Rating in Chase history.

Denny Hamlin commented on the state of the No.48 team following Friday’s qualifying session, “I think everyone in the garage kind of knew (the No.48 team) could turn it up at will”. Joey Logano also commented on how the Hedrick Motorsports team is in “kill mode”, Logano says “(Johnson) has that next notch and extra speed that nobody else can find. His intensity level picks up.”

Well boys, I’m right there with you this week and even though I didn’t find a header in the stats column entitled “kill mode”, I’m going with the overwhelming favorite, and now pole-sitter Jimmie Johnson this week. One piece of history besides Johnson’s impressive history at PIR that I do have to help my cause this week is the fact that seven of the 34 NASCAR Sprint Cup races at Phoenix have been won from starting positions on the front row….not that I need any help in making my point this week.

Dark Horse Pick

Now, if you’ve been listening to my preview of the race each week with Greg on the Prime Sports Network, you may have noticed an ongoing trend since mid-June or so. Each time when we reach the time to talk about Denny Hamlin, you’ve probably heard me laugh or say “steer clear of Denny this week”. Well, this week I have a bit different take on Denny Hamlin for a few reasons.
Number one, Denny Hamlin has been coming around down the stretch here in the Chase, and is certainly a far cry away from where he was at a couple months back. Three top 5’s in the last four races mark’s Hamlin’s best stretch of runs since he ran second at Darlington, finished fourth in the Coke 600, and finished eighth in the June Pocono race. He’s climbing back to relevancy in the latter stages of this year’s Chase, and will use these remaining two races this season to springboard his team into the 2014 season.

The number two reason for picking Denny Hamlin is his career history, not only at Phoenix but as a top tier driver in the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series. Since his first full season in the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series in 2006, Denny Hamlin has managed to find Victory Lane at least once in each of his seven full seasons in the Cup series. Out of the two remaining racetracks this season, Phoenix is certainly the better chance for Hamlin to keep his streak alive. He’s got an average finish of 5.8 in the last five races at PIR, including a win in 2012, three additional top 5’s, 116 total laps led, and an average driver rating of 104.2 over that same five-race stretch, so Hamlin has the recent stats worth a look this week.

Adding to my statement this week is the stat I mentioned above….over 20% of the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series races at PIR have been won from starting spots on the front row, and Denny Hamlin just happens to be starting second on Sunday. Not only did Denny qualify well, but he also practiced well on Friday to earn my nod as the Dark Horse play of the week.

That’s all for this week, so until we head to South Florida for the 2013 Grand Finale….You Stay Classy NASCAR NATION!

November 9, 2013
NASCAR Top-10 Power Rankings: Texas

Note: The quotes in this article are fictional.

1. Jimmie Johnson: Johnson led 255 of 334 laps in a dominant win at Texas, his sixth win of the year. Johnson now leads Matt Kenseth, who finished fourth, by seven points in the Sprint Cup points standings.

“I had the same seven-point lead after Texas last November,” Johnson said, “and didn’t win the championship. I’m hoping this is one time when I don’t repeat.”

2. Matt Kenseth: Kenseth finished fourth in the AAA Texas 500, slowed by a pit road speeding penalty midway through the race. Jimmie Johnson won and took a seven-point lead in the points standings.

“I’m neither throwing in the towel,” Kenseth said, “nor am I waving the white flag. Ask anyone, except Carl Edwards, and they’ll tell you there’s no surrender in me.”

3. Dale Earnhardt, Jr.: Earnhardt took the runner-up spot at Texas, following Hendrick teammate Jimmie Johnson across the line. It was Earnhardt’s third second-place finish of the Chase.

“There have been a lot of great drivers who have never won a Cup,” Earnhardt said. “Hopefully, I can put myself in that category some day.”

4. Jeff Gordon: One week after victory at Martinsville, disaster struck for Gordon at Texas, as a blown tire on lap 74 sent him into the wall. He eventually finished 38th, 187 laps down, and tumbled to sixth in the points, 69 out of first.

“Are you sure this is the AAA 500 and not the NRA 500?” Gordon said. “Because my championship hopes are ‘shot.’”

5 .Kevin Harvick: Harvick finished eighth at Texas and is now third in the points standings, 40 out of first.

“Will I be happier at Stewart-Haas Racing?” Harvick said. “Well, as Richard Childress has clearly stated, it’s all relative.”

6. Clint Bowyer: Bowyer came home tenth in the AAA Texas 500, posting his 18th top 10 of the year. He is seventh in the Sprint Cup points standings, 69 out of first.

“This race in Texas wasn’t sponsored by the NRA,” Bowyer said. “In hindsight, maybe the race in Richmond should have been sponsored by the NRA, because there was a second amendment made to the Chase field afterwards.”

7. Kyle Busch: Busch, who won at Texas in April, finished 13th on Sunday in the AAA 500. Like many drivers, Busch’s day was hindered by a blown tire suffered early in the race.

“The blown tire put me in a hole early,” Busch said. “I felt much like a North Carolina state trooper chasing me, because I was playing catch up.”

8. Greg Biffle: Biffle finished 12th at Texas, leading one lap after starting 18th. He is eighth in the points standings, 73 behind Jimmie Johnson.

“I apologized to Johnson for my actions at Martinsville,” Biffle said. “It was only the second most controversial ‘spin’ move in NASCAR this year. Maybe I shouldn’t have grabbed Jimmie from behind, but that’s where I always seem to find myself.”

9. Joey Logano: Logano finished third in the AAA Texas 500, posting his first top-5 result since a fourth at Kansas in early October.

“It felt good to run with the big dogs,” Logano said, “instead of from them.”

10. Brad Keselowski: Keselowski led 30 laps and finished sixth in the AAA Texas 500 at Texas, one day after winning the Nationwide Series race.

“I may not repeat as champion,” Keselowski said, “but the future is bright for this 29-year-old. I see nothing but clear, sunny skies ahead, because the ‘reign’ is over.”

November 5, 2013
Two Strong Partnerships Now Ending Under Unfortunate Circumstances

On February 18th, 2001, NASCAR was changed forever. Dale Earnhardt was gone but in the wake of his death, two relationships that we erroneously assumed would last forever were born. On that dark day, NAPA sponsored Michael Waltrip and together, they won the Daytona 500 and the loss that overshadowed their triumph seemed to create an unbreakable bond between the two. Young gun Kevin Harvick was plucked from RCR’s developmental program and given the task of driving the late, great Earnhardt’s car. In just his 3rd start, the 25 year old won his first race in a spectacular photo finish at Atlanta. The victory revived the withering and despondent team and like NAPA and Waltrip, created an unbreakable bond that many thought could withstand the test of time itself. Due to some imprudent decisions though, these two relationships have taken a turn for the worse.

NAPA was featured on the hood of Waltrip’s car for every race from the commencement of the 2001 season to the conclusion of 2009’s. They jumped from DEI with Michael when he formed Michael Waltrip Racing in 2007. They persevered through the infamous jet fuel controversy and helped the team grow into the powerhouse it is today. Michael went to victory lane four times in his career and every single time, there was a NAPA logo getting sprayed with champagne and adorned with confetti. They now sponsor MWR’s Martin Truex Jr. who has also enjoyed success with the company. We’ve laughed at the many commercials, shook our heads at the countless shameless NAPA plugs by Michael and you could never think of one without thinking of the other.

Now, we look at the two with a bitter taste in our mouths as our thoughts wander back to the scandal that was Spingate in Richmond just a couple months ago. Bowyer spun, Vickers pitted, Truex made the chase and unprecedented events quickly followed. Truex was knocked out of the chase, hefty penalties were handed down and NAPA began rethinking their involvement with Michael Waltrip Racing. On September 19th, the auto parts store announced that it would cut ties with the team at season’s end, terminating their 12 year partnership that had endured through so much up to this point. Truex Jr. is losing his ride because of the decision and the organization is being forced to downsize.

Kevin Harvick is a NASCAR superstar and some will even say that he saved Richard Childress Racing or at the very least, bolstered it. As a rookie in 2001, he quickly asserted himself as their new flagship driver winning races hand over fist. Together, they’ve won 22 Cup races, made seven chases and even collected a Harley J. Earl Trophy in the 2007 Daytona 500 as well as a couple Nationwide crowns. RCR got back on their feet after Earnhardt’s untimely death and expanded around Kevin’s success. Harvick and Childress seemed like a perfect match and everything was going smoothly until Kevin Harvick surprised a lot of people in 2012 by announcing that he would be leaving the team at the conclusion of 2013.

It didn’t faze the organization much at first as they continued their winning ways and made the chase once again this year. Kevin was making a mockery of the “lame-duck” status some decided to label him with. There were rumblings that the reason why he was leaving the team is because of the Dillon boys. Austin and Ty are the grandsons of Richard Childress and they have two Cup cars waiting for them in the RCR stable when they are ready. Kevin didn’t appear to be hostile towards the Dillons (at least from my point of view) but it just seemed like he could read the writing on the wall and decided it was time to move on. No one could have foreseen the chaos that would erupt in Martinsville this past weekend.

Ty and Kevin were engaged in an enthralling battle towards the end of the Truck race and as the laps clicked away, patience thinned and a game of bumper tag commenced. It ended with the two crashing in what seemed like just one of those racing deals. Immediately, Richard Childress came over the radio and told his grandson to go after the No.14 but Kevin beat them to it slamming into the No.3 under caution. The two went around for half a lap hitting one another multiple times before entering pit road where the incident escalated to a dangerous level. Harvick stopped in Dillon’s pit box and the crew went after him. There was pushing, shoving, yelling and some guy had the bright idea to throw a sledge hammer that narrowly missed his fellow crew guys, a NASCAR official and Harvick’s arm. Kevin Harvick delivered the final blow with an incensed interview directed towards the Dillon boys.

“The No.3 jut dumped me. Exactly the reason why I’m leaving RCR because you got those kids coming up and they got no respect for what they do in this sport. They’ve had everything fed to them with a spoon…I cut him slack all day and he just dive bombs in there and dumps me. It’s a shame you got to get taken out by some rich kid like that.” – Kevin Harvick

Ty was caught on video after the race talking to his grandfather and said “he has done nothing for RCR but f*** s*** up.” RC agreed and said that he’s “got plans for him.” Ty also referred to Kevin as someone he once revered but now called him a punk. Harvick apologized for his comments the following day but although I believe he does regret his actions, I think everything he said may be truly how he feels. It’s sad really that we watched a 13 year friendship deteriorate on national television like that.

There’s cruel irony in the fact that these partnerships started around the same time and are now ending at the same time under a cloud of controversy and animosity. MWR handled NAPA’s contract termination in a professional manner after their Richmond transgressions but I’m sure it hurts for Michael to watch them walk away after everything they’ve been through together. Despite the now infamous Martinsville run-in, Childress stated in an interview that he promised Kevin he would do everything humanly possible to help him win the title and that he still intended to keep that promise but also vehemently declared that he will never apologize to Kevin. Austin Dillon responded to the incident in a very classy manner saying that he’s already forgiven Kevin for what he said but admitted that it did hurt his feelings.

I truly believe that with time, the angry words and insults thrown around at “The Paperclip” will fade into the past and become no more than a whisper. They will repair their now broken friendship but maybe that’s just the optimist in me coming out…I just see too much history there for both parties to hold a grudge and completely burn the bridge. With Waltrip and NAPA, that’s sadly a case where there’s no going back. It’s less about friendship and more about breaking the trust of a loyal business partner. When these two partnerships began, the No.3 vanished from the race track and with their demise, we will most likely be seeing the No.3 return next year….funny how fate would have it work out that way.

As the old adage goes, “all good things must come to an end.”

October 30, 2013
NASCAR Top-10 Power Rankings: Martinsville

Note: The quotes in this article are fictional.

1. Matt Kenseth: Kenseth led 202 laps at Martinsville and finished second, unable to keep eventual winner Jeff Gordon at bay over the closing laps. Kenseth’s runner-up finish forged a tie in the points standings with Jimmie Johnson.

“While I’m thrilled to be knotted atop the points standings with Johnson,” Kenseth said, “Johnson isn’t. In other words, Jimmie’s fit to be tied.”

2. Jimmie Johnson: Johnson finished fifth at Martinsville, three spots behind Matt Kenseth, as Hendrick teammate Jeff Gordon took the win. Kenseth and Johnson sit tied atop the points standings, 27 ahead of Gordon.

“While Greg Biffle confronted me,” Johnson said, “Kenseth in-fronted me. If only Kenseth were as easy to handle as Greg Biffle, you could hand me the Cup right now.”

3. Jeff Gordon: Gordon won for the first time this season, capturing the Goody’s Headache Relief Shot 500 at Martinsville and vaulting from fifth to third in the Sprint Cup points standings. He trails Jimmie Johnson and Matt Kenseth by 27.

“I put myself back in the Cup picture,” Gordon said. “Unfortunately, when I try to imagine myself as 2013 Sprint Cup champion, I just can’t ‘picture’ it.”

4. Kevin Harvick: Harvick finished sixth in the Goody’s Headache Relief Shot 500 at Martisville. He is fourth in the points standings. 28 out of first.

“If you saw the Trucks race,” Harvick said, “you know I have a problem with drivers who have been ‘grandfathered in.’ Now you know why I’m leaving Richard Childress Racing. Those kids don’t know what they’re ‘Dillon’ with.”

5. Clint Bowyer: Bowyer took third at Martinsville, posting his ninth top-5 result of the year. He is sixth in the Sprint Cup points standings, 55 out of the lead.

“The 5-Hour Energy car finished third in the Goody’s Headache Relief Shot 500,” Bowyer said. “It seems that Goody’s has taken 5-Hour Energy’s concept and used it to their advantage. You could say they’ve put a ‘new spin’ on shots.”

6. Dale Earnhardt, Jr.: Earnhardt came home eighth at Martinsville as Hendrick Motorsports placed three drivers in the top 10, led by Jeff Gordon’s first win of the year. Earnhardt is seventh in the points standings, 56 out of first.

“Army National Guard renewed their sponsorship of the No. 88 car,” Earnhardt said. “As you know, the fans of Junior Nation love the ‘armed services,’ especially if that arm is handing them a beverage.”

7. Kyle Busch: After two fifth-place finishes in his last two races, Busch finished a disappointing 15th at Martinsville. He is fifth in the points standings, 36 out of first.

“How about Darrell Wallace becoming only the second black driver to win a NASCAR-sanctioned race?” said Busch. “Now, NASCAR’s Drive For Diversity has a new slogan celebrating black heritage in NASCAR. It’s called ‘What A Race!’”

8. Greg Biffle: Biffle started 33rd and finished ninth at Martinsville. He is eighth in the points standings, 58 out of first.

“I made like my rear bumper,” Biffle said, “and got all up in Jimmie Johnson’s grill.

9. Brad Keselowski: After struggling at Talladega, Keselowski finished fourth at Martinsville, one of only two Fords in the top 10.

“All this controversy at Martinsville,” Keselowski said, “and none of it involves me. Once again, I’ve been ‘left out.’”

10. Carl Edwards: Edwards finished 12th at Martinsville and is now tenth in the Sprint Cup points standings, 76 out of first.

“Greg Biffle obviously needs a course in confrontation etiquette,” Edwards said. “And I’m the man to do it. Of all people, I’m the one that knows how to teach a teammate a lesson.”

October 29, 2013
Gordon gets the clock, closes the points gap at Martinsville

Four time NASCAR Sprint Cup Series champion, Jeff Gordon, scores his first win of the season and eighth career win at Martinsville Speedway on Sunday in the Goody’s Headache Relief Shot 500. He is now tied with teammate, Jimmie Johnson, for the most wins at Martinsville among active drivers.

Gordon led a total of 78 laps and passed Matt Kenseth in the closing laps en route to victory. As he pulled into victory lane, his No. 24 Drive to End hunger Chevrolet looked like a war torn relic, beaten and battered from another Martinsville battle. A battle that was slowed by 17 cautions, signifying how rough and tumble the racing was today.

Gordon also managed to close the gap in the points standings. He now sits in third place, 27 points behind Matt Kenseth and Jimmie Johnson who are tied for the lead. He has now secured a spot in the 2014 Sprint All-star race.

Gordon talked about today’s win, ”Oh my gosh this meant so much, I mean I feel like we worked so hard, and many weekends we’ve left the racetrack looking at one another going what do we have to do? We’ve had racecars we’ve had pitstops, we’ve had strategy, I feel like I’ve had days where I’ve done my part, but just couldn’t get it all lined up. Today, we come to this race with a lot of confidence, you know this is a great rack for us the 24 team, for me personally, these guys, Alan especially, give me a great racecar all weekend long, I was a little disappointed in myself qualifying, I feel like we should have done better job than that, but it made up for t getting that number two pit stall. That was sort of turnaround for our weekend in many ways, or just that kind of added bonus, and that paid of for us today as well.”

Kenseth came into today’s race trailing Johnson by four points. He led 202 laps today en route to a second place finish. Kenseth said, “I mean, I think we led the most laps and finished second. The only guy happier is Jeff. Again you’re always s a little disappointed when your crew puts you out front at the end and you can’t hold on.”

Johnson was touted as the favorite to win all week. Many practically had has name engraved on the trophy. The five-time NASCAR Sprint Cup Series champion ran strong all day, leading 123 laps. He ended the day in fifth place, a good day by many standards, mediocre for Johnson.

Kenseth and Johnson now head to Texas Motor Speedway tied atop the championship standings. Gordon and Harvick 27 and 28 points back respectively.

Kyle Busch who finished 15^th, now sits 36 points back and sees his championship hopes slipping away. One glimmer of hope, however, is that the series now head to Texas Motor Speedway where he won earlier this season.

Clint Bowyer had his best finish of the Chase with a solid sixth place effort. 55 points out of the lead, however, Bowyer will need a lot of things to go his way to have a shot at the title. Bowyer talked about how tough the outside lane was day, “Yeah, I mean, it was – it’s just the nature of the beast here. You know, we got jumbled up there going for the inside. The 48 was very, very aggressive for the point leader to be dive bombing to the inside. I was all over the brakes to keep from running him over a couple times. But that’s how important it is to get to the inside on these restarts.”

October 27, 2013

Hot 20 over the Chase six – Past 10 matters little to Johnson, as it is all about the 6 since Richmond and the 4 to come

Usually, one gets a general perspective on how a driver has been performing recently by taking a look at his past ten efforts. Ten, a nice round number that just so happens to also be the exact number of races in the Chase. You would think, barring adjustments for pre-Chase bonuses, it might give you an idea how things are going for those chasing a championship. You would think.

That was before Jimmie Johnson sandbagged the final four pre-Chase events. In those races, Johnson picked up a whopping 33 points. That is the same as he got last week finishing 13^th at Talladega. Matt Kenseth, in those same four races, earned 148 points. Then they leveled the playing field. However, before anyone moans how unfair the Chase is to the season’s best, it actually has penalized Johnson and benefited Kenseth. Remember, before the re-jig, Kenseth was in fifth place, 35 points behind Carl Edwards and 34 in arrears of Johnson, who was still second despite his pre-Chase problems. If not for the Chase, the standings would have Johnson leading Harvick by 33, with Kenseth third 41 back. So, the right guy is leading the way, albeit by 4 Chase points.

As for being hot or not with four races to go in the season, it comes down to room for growth. As we replace the results from Michigan, Bristol, Atlanta, and Richmond with those coming from Martinsville, Fort Worth, Phoenix, and Homestead, Kenseth can better his total by no more than 44 points. Johnson can better his by 159.

What that does, however, is make the hot 20 over the past ten races rather meaningless, with Kenseth presently 108 points better than the 15^th ranked Johnson. Compress it down to the six Chase races to date and it becomes clear who indeed leads the way. The ten race average will again become meaningful, but not before Homestead. Thanks a bunch, Jimmie.

Here is a look at our hottest 20 drivers over the course of the Chase…

	Driver	Wins	T-5	T-10		Points	Rank
1	Jimmie Johnson	1	4	5	242		1
2	Matt Kenseth	2	3	4	235		2
3	Kevin Harvick	1	2	4	222		3
4	Jeff Gordon	0	2	4	220		5
5	Kyle Busch	0	5	5	216		4
6	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.	0	2	4	202		6
7	Jamie McMurray	1	2	2	198		14
8	Greg Biffle	0	1	2	198		7
9	Clint Bowyer	0	0	3	197		8
10	Kurt Busch	0	2	2	193		9
11	Ryan Newman	0	0	4	182		11
12	Carl Edwards	0	1	3	180		10
13	Jeff Burton	0	0	1	176		20
14	Joey Logano	0	2	2	176		12
15	Martin Truex, Jr.	0	0	2	173		17
16	Ricky Stenhouse, Jr.	0	1	2	170		19
17	Brad Keselowski	1	1	2	169		15
18	Paul Menard	0	1	2	167		16
19	Aric Almirola	0	0	1	155		18
20	Kasey Kahne	0	1	1	153		13

October 22, 2013

Hot 20 over the past 10, the past 5, and how Talladega could change everything

A Top Ten finish for ten straight races, and a driver would accumulate a minimum of 340 points. That is hot. Kevin Harvick, and the Busch boys are that hot, but Matt Kenseth has been nearly 40 points hotter, so a bad day at Talladega on Sunday would mean he would make his championship dreams more of a challenge. The others go down and so do their hopes.

Jimmie Johnson is still rated as cool over the past ten, but remains second in the Chase. His is a case of earning just 69 points in the five pre-Chase races that do not count toward the title and the 209 he has claimed in the five that do. Kenseth, with his two wins in the Chase, has accumulated 210 over the last five, as this chart would sport a slightly different look if we took into account only what has happened since Chicago instead of Watkins Glen.

	Driver	Win	T5	T10	Points
1	Matt Kenseth	2	3	4	210
2	Jimmie Johnson	1	4	5	209
3	Kevin Harvick	1	2	4	190
4	Jeff Gordon	0	2	4	189
5	Kyle Busch	0	4	4	176

But then, I would have to change the title of this column. Barring misfortune, we should see Johnson charging up these standings over the final four events. Barring misfortune, we should see Kenseth maintaining his hold on the point position. Barring misfortune, we should see Harvick, Jeff Gordon, and Kyle Busch battling it out to see who finishes third. Barring the Big One at Talladega, there are a lot of things we might be expected to see, but what we have come to expect from the big track could change the fortunes of more than a few by the end of Sunday. It was just one year ago when we had a massive 25 car demolition on the final lap at Talladega. Kenseth was ahead of the pack and won that day. Can he be so fortunate in 2013?

Here is a look at the hottest 20 drivers over the past 10 events.

	Driver	Win	T5	T10	Points	LW	Rank
1	Matt Kenseth	3	4	6	379	1	1
2	Kevin Harvick	1	3	6	343	6	3
3	Kyle Busch	2	6	6	341	5	5
4	Kurt Busch	0	5	6	340	2	7
5	Jeff Gordon	0	2	7	337	4	4
6	Joey Logano	1	5	6	337	3	11
7	Greg Biffle	0	1	4	324	7	6
8	Ryan Newman	0	2	5	313	8	12
9	Jamie McMurray	0	2	2	306	9	15
10	Carl Edwards	1	3	6	306	10	10
11	Juan Pablo Montoya	0	2	3	296	14	22
12	Paul Menard	0	2	4	293	12	17
13	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.	0	1	5	284	11	9
14	Marcos Ambrose	0	0	3	283	12	19
15	Brad Keselowski	1	2	3	282	16	14
16	Jimmie Johnson	1	4	6	278	17	2
17	Jeff Burton	0	0	2	273	18	20
18	Kasey Kahne	0	2	3	271	15	13
19	Ricky Stenhouse, Jr.	0	0	2	267	21	21
20	Clint Bowyer	0	1	4	246	22	8
21	Martin Truex, Jr.	0	2	4	244	19	16
22	Aric Almirola	0	0	1	242	20	18

October 17, 2013

The Final Word – Thank God we have Talladega coming up on Sunday

Charlotte has come and gone for another season, so what can one say about the race that was. Well, “thank God that is behind us” comes to mind. I can not remember if it was sponsored by Nyquil or was simply the To Hell With A Cure for Insomnia 500, for me it turned out to be NASCAR’s version of English Premier League soccer. That is, best watched with PVR in hand.

Lap after lap of whatever and who cares. It was like watching a NBA game in the end, with the final few minutes about as exciting as it gets. Brad Keselowski wins, Kasey Kahne runs second, and Matt Kenseth extended his lead over Jimmie Johnson to four big points in the Chase standings. Did anything else much matter? I expected more from Charlotte, I expect nothing from ABC/ESPN, and not a single new fan was captured from what was presented in the television version of the contest. Thank God we have Talladega coming up this Sunday.

Talladega is coming up, Martin Truex Jr. is off seeking a new ride after Michael Waltrip Racing officially announced its contraction due to NAPA fleeing the scene. Brian Vickers is gone for the rest of the year as he deals with a re-occurrence of blood clots in his leg, but should be good to go in the seat of the MWR #55 for 2014.

NASCAR continues to seek the answers needed to make the racing more exciting. They returned to Charlotte a couple of days after the Saturday night race to see if the advent of more rear down force or more turbulent air might help shake things up. If the announce team can not make things more exciting, then the product itself has to improve.

Rating Charlotte – 5.5/10 – Something has to change, or those not true fanatics are going to continue wandering off to other stimulants or reducing their NASCAR experience to Daytona, Talladega, and Bristol.

If you do not like NASCAR, I understand. If you do not like Talladega, you really are a soccer fan. 40 plus cars sweeping by in aircraft formation three wide with just inches separating any of them in any direction at 200 miles per hour. One sneeze away from disaster. We will be watching this Sunday to see if such a sneeze might hamper the runaway bid of Kenseth and Johnson. Call your friends, call all those who usually do not watch, tell them this is what NASCAR produces each and every week. If we are lucky, Martinsville might actually keep them watching.

You can’t blame a guy for dreaming. Enjoy the week.

October 15, 2013
Matty’s Picks 2013 – Race 31 Bank of America 500 – Charlotte Motor Speedway – October 12, 2013

The drivers of the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series do not have to travel much further than their back yards to get to the track this week. A hometown race this week, and the only night race of the 2013 Chase for The Sprint Cup for the vast majority of teams this week. There have been 109 races at Charlotte Motor Speedway, everyone knows the history that has been made at the track, so I’ll spare the history for some statistics this week.

Jimmie Johnson leads the series with the most Chase race wins at Charlotte Motor Speedway with three, but none since his last win at Charlotte in October of 2009. The deepest in the field any eventual NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Champion has finished at the Chase race at Charlotte Motor Speedway was 25th all the way back in 2005 when Tony Stewart won his second NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Championship, his first with the Chase setup. All but one of the nine Chase races at Charlotte have been won by Chase drivers, and the second starting position has produced more race winners than any other starting position with 17 eventual race winners starting outside the front row. So with these stats so far, we’ve not eliminated any potential race winners.

The one statistic very important to this week’s picks comes in the form of a particular manufacturer’s recent struggles at Charlotte Motor Speedway. Just one Ford driver (who is driving a Toyota now) has won a race at Charlotte in the last 22 Charlotte races, and that was Matt Kenseth in the 2011 Bank of America 500. So one driver in 11 years has been able to put Ford in Victory Lane, which is something to look at this week if you’re making fantasy picks.

The only night race of the 2013 Chase for the Sprint Cup, so enjoy not swapping back and forth between your NFL game and NASCAR this week…

Kansas Recap

Not a great week for me last week at Kansas Speedway as I went with the points leader, Matt Kenseth as my winner pick because he was undefeated on the low-banked intermediate tracks this season. He had won at Las Vegas in March, Kansas in April, Kentucky in June, and Chicago in September to open the 2013 Chase. Kenseth’s streak would end last week at Kansas has he was rather quiet for the majority of the race….but extended his streak of 5 straight races where he has led a lap. Kenseth finished 11th, his first finish outside the top 10 in over a month.

My Dark Horse was exactly that, a shot in the dark especially this season. The dark horse aspect was erased when Brad Keselowski qualified fourth and got to the front for 52 laps last week in Kansas. Crew Chief Paul Wolfe’s gamble with fuel would not pan out as the Miller Lite Ford ran out of fuel on lap 224, the gamble cost Keselowski two laps to the leader which he was able to make up one, but would finish 17th when the checkered flag flew.

Charlotte Picks

Winner Pick
There are many folks looking at the No.18 team this week, for one he has won two races on the high banked intermediate tracks this season, in dominating fashion at Texas in April and most recently at Atlanta on Labor Day weekend. The second reason why Rowdy Busch is circled on may fantasy rosters this week is the thought that he is due for a win at Charlotte Motor Speedway in the Cup Series. Rewind to Memorial Day weekend this season…Kyle Busch was leading the Coca-Cola 600, in the middle of lap traffic when Fox Sports’ SkyCam over the frontstretch at Charlotte Motor Speedway came crashing to the race surface immediately in front of the No.18 car. The impact of the SkyCam resulted in radiator issues and an engine failure for Kyle who was positioned for his first ever Charlotte career win.

The loop statistics are great for a guy who has never won a race…he’s in the top three in all but one of the loop categories. The only one he is not inside the top three is Green Flag Passes, but Kyle has also qualified well over the years in North Carolina with a couple poles in the points races and an average start of 11.5. The practice sessions today and his win in the NASCAR Nationwide Series on Friday at Charlotte have added to my case for Kyle Busch on Saturday night. I am seeing a win out of this team on Saturday night and them jumping back into the Championship picture when we head to Talladega next week.

Dark Horse Pick
Martin Truex Jr. is going to be my longer play this week and here is why…Before Kansas last week and the race at Chicagoland to open the Chase, you had to go back all the way to Las Vegas back in March of 2012 for Truex’s last finish outside the top 15 on any of these intermediate track races. The stretch of 15-straight top 15 finishes is enhanced by the fact that he had two finishes outside the top 10 in the same stretch, both of which coming in the 2012 season.

Keep in mind Truex led 142 laps and finished 2nd at Texas back in April, also a 1.5-mile night race. Truex qualified 17th on Thursday, but went out for his qualifying run relatively early to some of the other drivers with similar practice speeds. On Friday, Truex was 3rd fastest in the first practice session and 5th in Happy Hour Friday evening, adding to the consistency we’ve seen all season from Truex on these intermediate tracks. He would like nothing more than to win one of these Chase races, so I’m throwing out the couple poor finishes in a row at Chicago and Kansas and going with Truex as a solid longer play this week.

That’s all for this week, so until we head to the biggest juggernaut of the 2013 Chase for the Sprint Cup….You Stay Classy NASCAR NATION!

October 12, 2013
Jeff Gordon steals Pole at Charlotte

The last four qualifiers each held the pole position for a few minutes, but Jeff Gordon is the only one who gets to keep it. As the night’s final qualifier, Gordon knew the pole was up for grabs as speeds climbed higher as Bojangles’ Pole Night Qualifying Thursday at Charlotte Motor Speedway went on, and he answered with a blazing lap in 27.791 seconds (194.308 mph).

“That was an exciting qualifying effort, regardless whether we were on the pole,” Gordon said. “All those cars that were going late and the times just dropping. To go out there and know that the pressure’s on you after the car ahead of you just sits on the pole and you’re battling those guys for the championship … to go out there and get the pole is really exciting. To do it here in Charlotte … I think it’s been a while since we’ve won it here, so man, it feels so good.”

It was Gordon’s ninth pole at Charlotte, his first since 2010, and it was won by the slimmest of margins. In fact, less than a tenth of a second separated the top five qualifiers.

Kasey Kahne turned a fast lap early in Thursday’s qualifying session and held the pole position until the final four drivers of the night: Jimmie Johnson, Greg Biffle, Kevin Harvick and Gordon. Each of those drivers benefited from the late draw and the knowledge gleaned from watching the rest of the field qualify by turning quicker laps than the driver before.

The three who had been edged out in succession each felt he had left something on the race track.

“I felt like I didn’t get everything in (turns) three and four,” Harvick said. “I knew the way practice was going that I had to get everything I could out of one and two and not get tight coming off Turn 4, and I probably lost the pole right there. We would really like to have the pole tonight, but everybody knows how we’ve qualified in the past, and to be on the front row, that’s good for us.”

Driver Quotes

Jeff Gordon (Bojangles Pole Night Winner, 27.791 seconds, 194.308 mph): “Man, that was awesome. We got through (turns) three and four good in practice, but I thought I was a little bit tight; we actually freed the car up a little bit. When it went through one and two as good as it did … I just kept pushing the throttle down, and it stuck. I didn’t know if it was going to be good enough and when I found out how close it really was; it’s pretty amazing. That was an exciting qualifying effort, regardless whether we were on the pole. All those cars that were going late and the times just dropping. To go out there and know that the pressure’s on you after the car ahead of you just sits on the pole, and you’re battling those guys for the championship … to go out there and get the pole is really exciting. To do it here in Charlotte … I think it’s been a while since we’ve won it here, so man, it feels so good.”

(Were you on edge?) “You’re always on the edge at Charlotte on a qualifying lap. My biggest fear was losing the front, not the back. I thought, ‘OK, that was pretty good, now don’t screw up three and four.’ I just really wanted to get the front end down to the white line.”

Kevin Harvick (2nd place qualifier, 27.806 seconds, 194.203 mph): “I felt like I didn’t get everything in three and four. I knew the way practice was going that I had to get everything I could out of one and two and not get tight coming off Turn 4, and I probably lost the pole right there. I’ve got to thank the guys. We knew we needed to qualify better in the Chase, we knew we needed to run better on the mile-and-a-half race tracks, and they’re bringing cars to the race track to do that, and we’re capitalizing on it. We would really like to have the pole tonight, but everybody knows how we’ve qualified in the past, and to be on the front row, that’s good for us. The race is no problem. It’s the qualifying that stresses me out. For us, qualifying has never been a strong suit. But to have a better pit selection and not have to pass half the field to start the race is a good sign for us. We were able to get some race laps in before we put it in qualifying trim.”

Greg Biffle (3rd-place qualifier, 27.841 seconds, 193.959 mph): “I wasn’t on the pole as long as I wanted to be, only about two cars. I’ll tell you what. I’m surprised, very surprised the track had the grip it did. I watched the others guys go, and I was using the Kevin Harvick mentality of don’t try for more than the track will give you. That was my mindset going in. And when I came across three and four the track had so much grip. I barely came out of the gas. I thought the track had a ton of grip. I got all I could in turns one and two. It had so much grip there, it kind of sucked me into three and four thinking it was going to be as good as one and two. I drove down in there and it went straight to the bottom, and I was like, oh I got this. I went to the gas and it started slipping up the race track. I actually got out of the gas pretty far. I would have run much faster if I would have backed up the corner. But Jeff (Gordon) had the best opportunity by watching what everybody else did and where he needed to be.”

October 11, 2013