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  • Matty’s Picks 2013 – Vol. 13 Toyota/Save Mart 350 – Sonoma Raceway – June 23, 2013

    Matty’s Picks 2013 – Vol. 13 Toyota/Save Mart 350 – Sonoma Raceway – June 23, 2013

    On to the first of two road course races for the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series this week, Sonoma being the 1.99 mile road course on Sears Point this week. Possibly one of the best things about heading to Sonoma this week, is the track is a destination not only for California’s NASCAR fans, but also many racing enthusiasts in general.

    Sonoma Raceway attracts folks to its 11-turn stadium-like road course, because of it’s technical turns, elevation changes, and fantastic scenery. The blind corner entries, number of shifts, and finesse it takes to get around Sonoma efficiently make it one of the most difficult tracks to master for the drivers. In fact, all but one of the nine active NASCAR Sprint Cup winners at Sonoma participated in at least one or more races at the 1.99 miler, before visiting Victory Lane. Juan Pablo Montoya won at Sonoma in his rookie season and his first appearance, after starting 32nd, also the deepest in the field a race winner has ever started, back in 2007.

    Starting towards the front of the field at Sonoma has paid its dividends over the years, as 18 of 24 races have been won from a top-10 starting position. That trend hasn’t been as significant as of late with 3 of the last 6 race winners at Sonoma have started from outside the top-10. This weekend’s race is going to be one to watch with the delta shrinking between the road course specialists and the top guys in the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series and this new Gen6 car producing more down force than we’ve ever seen.

    Michigan Recap

    I only made one pick last week, and I went with the wrong Roush-Fenway driver. I picked Carl Edwards on Thursday last week (along with Greg Biffle as my number two pick, but failed to mention him in my column last week), which was looking even better after last Friday’s qualifying session. Edwards led some laps last Sunday, but the caution flag waived just after a mid-race green flag pit stop, and Carl spent the entire second-half of the race trying to gain back the track position he lost in the shuffle. He fought his way back to an eighth place finish last week, netting me a top 10.

    Sonoma Picks

    Winner Pick
    Marcos Ambrose and Juan Montoya are the obvious picks this week at Sonoma, and when deciding between the two, do keep in mind some of the luck Ambrose has had at Sonoma. For instance, remember back to 2010 when Ambrose opened up a 2+ second lead over Jimmie Johnson, when Brad Kesolowski spun and stalled in Turn 7, bringing out the caution with just 6 laps left. While trying to conserve fuel under caution, Ambrose shut down the engine and eventually lost pace with the caution car. He lost the race under caution in 2010, and luck just hasn’t been on his side at Sonoma over the years.

    It’s because of Ambrose’s misfortune that I am leaning towards Juan this week. Montoya is going through the best stretch of his season, and the fact that he will probably need two wins to secure a Wild Card for the Chase, is why I’m going to take Juan this week. He won in his first ever appearance at Sonoma back in 2007, and has been lighting up the charts so far this weekend. Montoya was second to Ambrose in the first practice session on Friday and fifth-fastest in happy hour, and rides a string of solid finishes into a track he’s been successful at over the years. He’s the guy to watch on Sunday.

    Dark Horse Pick

    This is a true longshot pick this week. Sonoma ranks as Jamie McMurray’s 6th-best track, and he’s inside the top-10 in a few of the traditional loop stats including green flag passes and average green flag speed. The practice speeds look even better as McMurray was 5th fastest in first practice yesterday, and followed up that practice session being shown second on the leaderboard after Happy Hour. This team has been coming around as of late, and could be a guy to knock off some of the road course ringers this week.

    That’s all for this week so until we head to the Bluegrass State…You Stay Classy NASCAR NATION!

  • When The Weather Gets Hotter, Smoke Catches Fire

    When The Weather Gets Hotter, Smoke Catches Fire

    Tony Stewart; the man you should never count out no matter what. Tony said prior to the 2011 chase that he didn’t even deserve to be in it with how poorly he was running. Two months and five wins later, he was hoisting the Sprint Cup trophy at Homestead. This year, Stewart-Haas Racing has had a rough time finding their footing with these Generation Six cars and have been forced to endure some pretty bad days at the track. Tony went into the Coke 600 21st in the standings and with just one top 10 through the first eleven races. Since that race, he’s finished no worse than 7th and comfortably sits 10th in points. Now that’s an incredible turnaround.

    I believed that they would get their internal issues worked out which they have but I never thought he’d go on such a tear and make his way back into the top 10 before June was even half over! The resurgence of SHR after a dismal start is impressive and the results will only improve as the season rolls on. In the eight races preceding Charlotte, Tony had a best finish of 15th. Since that race, he’s finished 7th, 1st, 4th and 5th launching him up the leader board and into chase contention. History says that Stewart runs better when the weather gets hotter which is understandable considering the slick conditions that kind of weather creates has some similarities to running a dirt track where you have to muscle the car around every lap…a form of racing Stewart excels at. Now we go to a road course and after sifting through the ringers that show up for these events, full-timers such as Ambrose, Montoya, Busch (both of them), Gordon and Stewart become the obvious favorites.

    I don’t think Tony will pick up his second win of the year at Sonoma which would all but solidify him as a 2013 chaser but I do think he will have another good run padding his lead over 11th. That is, unless he lets his temper get the best of him like he did back in 2011 here. My advice to anyone that sees the 3-time champ in their mirror this weekend, do not block him or you’re going to have a very bad day. Last year, Tony brought home a runner-up finish at this 12 turned California venue and got to the bumper of eventual winner Clint Bowyer but no further. Temperatures this weekend at Sonoma will be in the 80’s which bodes well for an on the edge driver like Tony Stewart who has two wins and three 2nd place finishes at this unique road course.

    Will Tony Stewart be able to keep this remarkable performance going or will he begin to fall off again? I personally think he’ll snag another win or two before Richmond, make the chase and finish well in points but he won’t be sitting at the champion’s table in Vegas. I think someone with the last name of Kenseth or Kahne will have that honor but that’s a thought for a whole other conversation. Stewart has gained credence as a title contender and just a few weeks ago, everyone wanted to write him off as even procuring a chase berth. The dynamic of 2013 is changing…Ford’s are gaining ground, SHR are contenders again and JGR is losing the stranglehold they had on the field.

    Tempers will definitely flare this weekend as racing room is limited but at the same time, a necessity. Imprudent decisions will be made and drivers will get their feelings hurt. Whoever can survive this brutal event where pushing and shoving is the name of the game will find themselves in a very good position to obtain a solid finish or even a victory. If Tony isn’t in the middle of all the carnage and chaos, then he might just be that guy celebrating in victory lane.

  • NASCAR Top-10 Power Rankings: Michigan

    NASCAR Top-10 Power Rankings: Michigan

    Note: The quotes in this article are fictional.

    1. Jimmie Johnson: While in pursuit of Greg Biffle in the lead, Johnson’s No. 48 Chevy cut a tire and slammed hard into the wall at Turn 2. Biffle went on to win, while Johnson finished 28th, one lap down. He remained the points leader, and holds a 31-point cushion over Carl Edwards.

    “I’ll let Biffle enjoy the moment,” Johnson said. “He tastes victory. I drink it.”

    2. Kevin Harvick: Harvick finished second in the Quicken Loans 400 at Michigan, posting his fourth consecutive top-10 result. He is fourth in the Sprint Cup point standings, 62 out of first.

    “Sunday was my first Father’s Day as a father,” Harvick said, “and I finished runner-up to Greg Biffle. I always like to say, ‘I’m a daddy first, and a driver second.’”

    3. Carl Edwards: Edwards finished eighth at Michigan, falling victim to an untimely caution, while Roush Fenway teammate Greg Biffle took the win. Edwards remained second in the point standings and trails Jimmie Johnson by 31.

    “Biffle refused to help me get some debris off my grill,” Edwards said. “But I’ve got no problem ‘trashing’ him. I guess my current teammate is a lot like my former teammate, Matt Kenseth, in that neither ‘favors’ me.”

    4. Matt Kenseth: Kenseth came home sixth at Michigan, collecting his eighth top 10 of the year. He improved one spot in the point standings to fifth and is now 82 out of first.

    “Toyota Racing Development is boosting the power of their engines,” Kenseth said. “That likely means Toyota cars will be going faster….when their engines blow.”

    5. Dale Earnhardt, Jr.: A promising day for Earnhardt at Michigan turned sour when his engine blew on lap 131 after he had led 34 laps on the day. He finished 38th and tumbled three places in the point standings to seventh, 91 out of first.

    “We’re close to signing a sponsor that will be new to NASCAR,” Earnhardt said, “and it will be a big deal for both parties. In other words, it’s a ‘win-win’ situation, which doubles my number of victories over the last year.”

    6. Clint Bowyer: Bowyer posted his eight top-10 finish of the year with a seventh in the Quicken Loans 400. He remained third in the point standings and trails Jimmie Johnson by 49.

    “The No. 15 5-Hour Energy car took a beating,” Bowyer said. “Of course, it’s taken a ‘beating’ all year, because I haven’t won a single race. That may change. I won last year at Sonoma’s road course, so I’m confident things will make a ‘turn’ for the better.”

    7. Kyle Busch: Busch led the way for Joe Gibbs Racing with a fourth in the Quicken Loans 400. He is fourth in the Sprint Cup point standings, 86 out of first.

    “Michigan is a fast track,” Busch said. “It carries more speed than the Mayfield’s. That speed is probably why I was penalized for passing on pit road. And that reminds of the title of my upcoming autobiography, ‘Black Flags And Blue Lights.’”

    8. Greg Biffle: Biffle held off Jimmie Johnson at Michigan to give Ford its 1,000th victory in NASCAR. Biffle inherited the lead on a fortunate pit stop on lap 167, and kept Johnson at bay before the No. 48 blew a tire with two laps to go.

    “I stared down Johnson,” Biffle said, “and he blinked. Or maybe he just winked. In any case, he saw me. For once, I can say I had the ‘look’ of a champion.

    9. Kasey Kahne: Kahne blew a tire while leading on lap 104 at Michigan on a tough day for Hendrick Motorsports. Kahne finished 38th, while Jimmie Johnson was the highest Hendrick finisher in 28th.

    “Tire issues meant it wasn’t a good day for Hendrick,” Kahne said. “You want to know why? Because it was a Goodyear.”

    10. Brad Keselowski: Keselowski finished 12th in the Quicken Laons 400 at Michigan on a historic day for Ford, as Greg Biffle gave the auto maker it’s 1,000th win.

    “If you don’t think this is a big deal for Ford,” Keselowski said, “then you’ve been misinformed. Biffle celebrated in Victory Lane with Miss Sprint Cup. Me? I got stuck with ‘Miss Informed.’”

  • Crunching The Numbers: Sonoma & Road America

    Crunching The Numbers: Sonoma & Road America

    That time of the year has come again when the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series and NASCAR Nationwide Series head for the first road courses of the season in Sonoma, CA and Elkhart Lake, WI, respectively. Many of the road course races in recent memory have turned into races that resemble short track races than the follow the leader races of old and this weekend’s events should be more of the same beating and banging all the way to the finish. Add in the addition of so called “road course ringers” and the road courses make for very entertaining races.

    NASCAR Sprint Cup Series – Toyota/Save Mart 350 at Sonoma

    This weekend marks the annual trip to California Wine Country and Sonoma Raceway’s lone Sprint Cup date. With the advent of double file restarts, this race has become a must see event due to the narrow course that these drivers are trying to navigate while running two wide. That factor often leads to cars being spun off course and tempers flaring among the drivers. In addition to that, the Sprint Cup Series will debut group based qualifying this weekend and this will also be the Sonoma debut for the Gen6 car, which throws more uncertainty into this race that has not seen a repeat winner in the past eight races.

    Driver Races Win Top 5 Top 10 Pole Laps Led Avg. Start Avg. Finish
    Jeff Gordon 20 5 12 16 5 450 7.4 8.6
    Clint Bowyer 7 1 4 5 0 73 17.1 9.7
    Tony Stewart 14 2 5 9 1 82 11.1 10.9
    Marcos Ambrose 5 0 2 4 1 46 5.0 12.8
    Ryan Newman 11 0 2 5 0 11 10.8 12.9
    Juan Pablo Montoya 6 1 1 4 0 9 18.8 13.2
    Jimmie Johnson 11 1 4 6 0 85 16.0 13.8
    Greg Biffle 10 0 2 4 0 9 16.4 14.9
    Kevin Harvick 12 0 3 4 0 10 16.7 16.1
    Joey Logano 4 0 0 2 1 5 11.8 17.0

    Who To Watch: Four-time Sprint Cup champion, Jeff Gordon, has proven himself to be one of the best on road courses, especially at Sonoma, with five wins, 12 top fives, 16 top tens, five poles, 450 laps led, and an average finish of 8.6 in 20 races.

    2012 winner, Clint Bowyer, has also proven his mettle at Sonoma with one win, four top fives, five top tens, 73 laps led, and an average finish of 9.7 in seven races.

    Others who run well on the road course include: Tony Stewart, with two wins, five top fives, nine top tens, one pole, 82 laps led, and an average finish of 10.9 in 14 races; Road course ace Marcos Ambrose who has yet to win at Sonoma, but has two top fives, four top tens, one pole, 46 laps led, and an average finish of 12.8 in five races; Ryan Newman, with two top fives, five top tens, 11 laps led, and an average finish of 12.9 in 11 races; 2007 winner, Juan Pablo Montoya, with one win, one top five, four top tens, nine laps led, and an average finish of 13.2 in six races; and Jimmie Johnson, with one win, four top fives, six top tens, 85 laps led, and an average finish of 13.8 in 11 starts.

    NASCAR Nationwide Series – Johnsonville Sausage 200 at Road America

    For just the fourth time, the Nationwide Series will be making the trek to Wisconsin to take on the daunting 4.048 mile road course, the longest on the circuit. The field will be full of drivers who have never raced at the track or only have one start, leaving the field wide open for a new winner. With none of the Sprint Cup regulars attempting the double and a few “ringers” joining the field, the odds are high that one of the Nationwide regulars will find themselves in Victory Lane for the third race in a row.

    Driver Races Win Top 5 Top 10 Pole Laps Led Avg. Start Avg. Finish
    Nelson Piquet, Jr. 1 1 1 1 1 19 1.0 1.0
    Reed Sorenson 1 1 1 1 0 1 12.0 1.0
    Brendan Gaughan 1 0 1 1 0 0 6.0 3.0
    Owen Kelly 1 0 1 1 0 0 9.0 5.0
    Sam Hornish, Jr. 1 0 1 1 0 3 8.0 5.0
    Cole Whitt 1 0 0 1 0 0 14.0 9.0
    Elliott Sadler 2 0 1 1 0 0 10.0 9.5
    Brian Scott 3 0 0 1 0 10 13.3 12.0
    Max Papis 2 0 1 1 0 1 3.5 13.5
    Blake Koch 1 0 0 0 0 0 24.0 14.0

    Who To Watch: With a win and a pole in his only race at the track last season, Nelson Piquet, Jr. is at the top of the list statistically of the drivers who have competed at Road America. Piquet led 19 laps en route to victory last season and is looking to become the first repeat winner at the track in the short history that the Nationwide Series has there.

    The only other driver in the field with a win is Reed Sorenson, who along with his one win has one top five, one top ten, one lap led and an average finish of 1.0 in one start.

    Others who run well at Road America, but have yet to win include: Brendan Gaughan, with a third place finish in his lone start; Owen Kelly, piloting Kyle Busch’s No. 54, with a fifth place finish in one start; Sam Hornish, Jr., currently sitting second in points, with a fifth place finish in one start; Cole Whitt, who recently returned to the Nationwide Series, with a ninth place finish in one start; and Elliott Sadler, who is the highest ranking driver with more than one start and has one top five and one top ten in his two starts at the track.

  • Crunching The Numbers: Michigan

    Crunching The Numbers: Michigan

    After having races in three different states last weekend for the three national series, the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series and NASCAR Nationwide Series join back up for a companion weekend at Michigan International Speedway, the bad fast two-mile oval located in the Irish Hills of Michigan. The high speeds generated at the track are due in large part to the repave that the track underwent last season, as well as the long straightaways and the wide, sweeping corners that tend to produce three and four wide racing.

    Sprint Cup Series – Quicken Loans 400

    After taking on the “Tricky Triangle” in Pocono last weekend, the Sprint Cup Series heads west to Michigan for race No. 15 of the season. Many are expecting a blazing fast race with the combination of the new pavement from last year and the new Gen6 car that has been breaking track records all season long. If that trend continues this weekend, the track record of 203.241 mph set last season at this race by Marcos Ambrose could very well be in danger of falling.

    Driver Races Win Top 5 Top 10 Pole Laps Led Avg. Start Avg. Finish
    Carl Edwards 17 2 9 13 0 275 21.1 8.2
    Matt Kenseth 27 2 12 17 0 284 18.3 9.6
    Jeff Gordon 40 2 18 25 5 954 11.1 11.7
    Greg Biffle 20 3 9 12 1 517 13.2 11.8
    Tony Stewart 28 1 11 19 0 224 19.4 11.9
    Denny Hamlin 14 2 5 7 0 149 14.5 13.6
    Mark Martin 54 5 18 31 1 965 11.7 14.0
    Dale Earnhardt, Jr. 27 2 6 10 2 293 15.0 14.8
    Kevin Harvick 24 1 3 8 0 149 18.1 14.8
    Jimmie Johnson 22 0 4 9 0 565 8.8 15.2

    Who To Watch: With car owner Jack Roush hailing from Michigan and some of the Roush organization being based in Michigan, it is no surprise that Ford drivers run well at this track. Carl Edwards, driver of the No. 99 Ford for Roush-Fenway Racing, leads all active drivers in the stats category at Michigan with two wins, nine top fives, 13 top tens, 275 laps led, and an average finish of 8.2 in 17 races.

    Matt Kenseth, former teammate to Edwards and current driver of the No. 20 Toyota for Joe Gibbs Racing, also has run well at Michigan with two wins, 12 top fives, 17 top tens, 284 laps led, and an average finish of 9.6 in 27 races. However, Toyota’s recent decision to detune their engines in favor of better reliability may hamper Kenseth and the other Toyota drivers at Michigan, where an engine that can produce big horsepower and speed can provide a sizeable advantage over the competition.

    Others to keep an eye on include: Jeff Gordon, with two wins, 18 top fives, 25 top tens, five poles, 954 laps led, and an average finish of 11.7 in 40 races; Greg Biffle, with three wins, nine top fives, 12 top tens, one pole, 517 laps led, and an average finish of 11.8 in 20 starts; Tony Stewart, who has been on a roll since winning at Dover two weeks ago, has one win, 11 top fives, 19 top tens, 224 laps led, and an average finish of 11.9 in 28 starts; Denny Hamlin, with two wins, five top fives, seven top tens, 149 laps led, and an average finish of 13.6; and Mark Martin, with five wins, 18 top fives, 31 top tens, one pole, 965 laps led, and an average finish of 14.0 in 54 races.

    We can’t forget about Dale Earnhardt, Jr. either, with both of his Michigan wins equating to his last two Sprint Cup Series wins, including his win in this race one year ago. In addition to his two wins, Earnhardt, Jr. has six top fives, 10 top tens, two poles, 293 laps led, and an average finish of 14.8 in 27 races. Earnhardt will also be running a special “Man of Steel” paint scheme this weekend, and the driver of the No. 88 Chevrolet could very well take a superhero themed car to Victory Lane for the second year in a row.

    Nationwide Series – Alliance Truck Parts 250

    The first standalone race of the season for the Nationwide Series at Iowa last weekend surely did not disappoint as the race that was postponed to Sunday due to rain saw Trevor Bayne overtake a dominant Austin Dillon in the closing laps to win. The Nationwide drivers head north to Michigan this weekend for another companion weekend with their Sprint Cup counterparts. With only a few Sprint Cup regulars running this race, we could possibly see a Nationwide regular get to Victory Lane once again on Saturday.

    Driver Races Win Top 5 Top 10 Pole Laps Led Avg. Start Avg. Finish
    Kyle Busch 5 1 4 4 0 119 7.4 4.8
    Joey Logano 4 1 1 4 0 31 6.8 5.0
    Brian Vickers 5 0 2 3 1 114 5.2 9.0
    Paul Menard 7 0 2 6 1 50 12.9 9.3
    Justin Allgaier 4 0 1 2 0 14 14.0 9.5
    Austin Dillon 2 0 1 1 1 11 19.0 12.0
    Brian Scott 3 0 0 1 0 0 15.0 13.7
    Elliott Sadler 8 0 0 4 0 10 20.6 14.5
    Michael Annett 4 0 0 0 0 0 18.5 15.0
    Trevor Bayne 3 0 1 1 0 1 5.7 15.3

    Who To Watch: Two of the three Sprint Cup regulars running on Saturday, Kyle Busch and Joey Logano, lead in the stats category at Michigan with each driver having one win apiece. Busch has slightly better stats than Logano with four top fives, four top tens, 119 laps led and an average finish of 4.8 in five starts versus Logano’s one top five, four top tens, 31 laps led and an average finish of 5.0 in four starts. Logano and Busch are also the only drivers that will be racing on Saturday that have a Nationwide Series win at Michigan.

    Others to keep an eye on include: Brian Vickers, with two top fives, three top tens, one pole, 114 laps led, and an average finish of 9.0 in five starts; Paul Menard, the third of the three Sprint Cup regulars, with two top fives, six top tens, one pole, 50 laps led, and an average finish of 9.3 in seven starts; Justin Allgaier, with one top five, two top tens, 14 laps led, and an average finish of 9.5 in four starts; and Austin Dillon, who nearly won last week in Iowa, with one top five, one top ten, one pole, 11 laps led, and an average finish of 12.0 in two starts.

  • Previewing the Party In the Poconos 400 at Pocono Raceway

    Previewing the Party In the Poconos 400 at Pocono Raceway

    After an unpredictable day in Dover, NASCAR heads to the Tricky Triangle for the 14th event on the schedule. This unique 3-turned track is notorious for long runs and bad weather. Qualifying was washed out for this weekend’s race and the field will be set by owner’s points putting Jimmie Johnson and Carl Edwards on the front row. Jeff Gordon leads all active drivers with wins at Pocono (6) with his most recent being last August. Jeff needs a win badly after a dismal start to the season and this may be the place he gets it if all goes well Sunday.

    Besides Jeff Gordon, who else will be tough to beat this weekend? His name is Denny Hamlin and he is desperate for a victory. Hamlin has won at Pocono four times and his first two Cup wins came at this very track. After a rough week at Dover, he knows that he has to go hard this weekend if he wants to salvage his season and make the chase. After Denny’s back injury, he came back guns loaded ripping off two top 5’s and two poles in his last three starts. Another Toyota that will certainly be strong at Pocono is the No.55 of Mark Martin. He has never won at Pocono but he’s finished 2nd seven times! His most recent close call with victory lane was last year when young Joey Logano booted him out of the way with just four laps remaining. The only thing that may keep these two out of contention is the TRD engine issues that are looming over the JGR and MWR camps.

    This next driver wrecked while leading this race last August opening up the door for his teammate Jeff Gordon to steal the win. It’s Jimmie Johnson and he is fired up after the restart controversy that stopped him from winning for a record setting 8th time at Dover. In 22 starts at Pocono, he’s only finished outside the top 15 once and has finished inside the top five nine times. He will definitely be up front and I expect him to be in the mix as the race winds down. Tony Stewart is another driver that has a good record at Pocono winning twice and holding an average finish of 11.3; the 5th best among active drivers. In his 28 starts, he’s almost always inside the top 10 with 71% of his results being 10th or better. He has a lot of momentum after his surprise Dover win which is historically one of his worst tracks so don’t make the mistake of counting him out this weekend.

    Jamie McMurray and Paul Menard are having great seasons so far but don’t be surprised if they lose some ground after this race. In 22 combined starts at Pocono, they don’t have a top five between them and just six top 10’s.Their average finishes are awful and 18 of those 22 combined starts have been finishes of 20th or worse. They come into this race 9th and 19th in points and I expect them to give up a couple spots unfortunately. McMurray’s teammate Juan Pablo Montoya on the other hand has had a decent record here so look for JPM to have a solid weekend. Kyle Busch has had a tough time finding success at Pocono as well. He seems to either be right up in the front of the pack or way down leader board if not parked in the garage. Kasey Kahne and Greg Biffle don’t have a stellar results at this track either despite each of them winning here once.

    You can expect fuel to be a factor at the end of this race and many long green flag runs. Since this is Pocono, you can never count rain out as being a possible factor in determining the outcome of the race either. Jimmie Johnson, Jeff Gordon, Denny Hamlin and Mark Martin are the drivers to beat in my opinion while guys such as McMurray, Menard and Kyle Busch will most likely have a rough race. You can see my final predictions for the race below and feel free to give me your thoughts on who you believe will take the checkered flag Sunday!

    Race Favorite: Denny Hamlin

    Dark Horse: Mark Martin

    Possible Upset: Juan Pablo Montoya (Although I’m finding it increasingly difficult to look at him as a “upset” with how well he’s performed in 2013…)

  • Smooth Sailing For Chevrolet While TRD & Ford Stumble

    Smooth Sailing For Chevrolet While TRD & Ford Stumble

    The 2013 NASCAR Sprint Cup season is 13 races old and we now have a fairly clear picture as to which manufacturer has an edge on the competition. There is a great disparity between all three makes which isn’t surprising considering that this is a brand new car.  Joe Gibbs Racing is by far the best team winning five races this year and dominating many more. TRD powered cars have won eight poles as well and were under the hood for all those JGR victories. They are fast but maybe a little too fast. They are pushing the limits of their engines which are failing more than any other manufacturer. They had at least three other races this year in the bag until engine issues killed their chances. There is an intense feeling of trepidation throughout the Toyota camp even if they don’t show it because they can’t afford to be giving valuable championship points away like this and they know it.

    Part of the reason why Joe Gibbs switched to TRD in 2012 is because their own engines were having reliability problems and they hoped to bolster their program with the addition of TRD power. Well, they are right back to where they were except this time; they are relying on someone else to fix the issues. TRD is plenty capable of fixing this problem though and I believe they will but the clock is ticking and they don’t have very much time. A quick fix that will be implemented immediately is to scale back the horsepower on their cars in an effort to improve reliability. Its common sense really; be easier on the engine components and they are more likely to last the entire event. They won’t be dominating every single race now but a top 10 and a few wins is a lot better than a few wins and a couple 40th’s.

    We don’t even know if this will eradicate the issue which has mostly been valve train related; considered the most fragile part of the engine to most. We saw Matt Kenseth not even make it 200 miles before he lost the engine at Dover and TRD’s thinking is that less strain on the parts will help them endure the entire race distance. Cup motors are built to last around 800 miles so for these engines to not even make it a quarter of the way to that amount is a little concerning. If they can get past these issues, then not much will be able to stop their powerful fleet of cars in 2013.

    Ford hasn’t had very many engine problems this year, what they are lacking is raw speed. They would like to adjust the front aerodynamics of their cars but I doubt NASCAR will let that happen mid-season. I said it back in Daytona that I felt the 3D “grills” would be a disadvantage to the Ford team but they aren’t pin-pointing that as the main issue so don’t quote me on that. They have just two wins this year compared to Toyota’s five and Chevy’s six. Carl Edwards won Ford their first race in the Gen-6 back in Phoenix while the underdogs at Front-Row Motorsports put their Ford Fusion’s 1-2 at Talladega. The Ford’s seem to run so-so at the 1.5 mile and 2 mile tracks which they have historically dominated in the past.

    Photo Credit: Simon Scoggins
    Photo Credit: Simon Scoggins

    They are fast at shorter, less aerodynamic dependent venues which is very uncharacteristic for that group. In the manufacturer standings, they trail Toyota by 20pts and Chevy by 28 which is a fairly large margin. Penske Racing and even Germain Racing have shown consistent speed in the cars although they’ve also had a few dismal results. Richard Petty Motorsports and Roush-Fenway are the ones that are really having a tough time. Carl may be 2nd in points but that team as a whole hasn’t taken charge at all this year and really haven’t shown much strength. They’ve just been there for the most part. RPM’s Aric Almirola was really good earlier in the year but now he is beginning to fall off as well. This certainly isn’t Ford’s season and as they struggle to find their footing, Toyota and Chevrolet continue to gap them more and more every weekend.

    Now I would talk about Chevy’s issues if they really had any. They came out of the gate winning the Daytona 500 in a Hendrick Motorsports 1-2 and all their teams have been solid this year. Toyota seems to have a little more speed than them but like I said earlier, their reliability is awful. Hendrick Motorsports and ECR have built very durable engines that have only failed twice during the season thus far. Hendrick Motorsports, Richard Childress Racing and Earnhardt-Ganassi Racing have all been very strong. Drivers such as Paul Menard, Jamie McMurray and even Juan-Pablo Montoya who are usually around 15th-20th in points aren’t ruling out the possibility of a chase berth just yet. Stewart-Haas has struggled but that is of their own doing as they are finding it tough to adapt to the Gen-6. They either have ill-handling racecars or find themselves at the wrong place at the wrong time. That being said, Tony Stewart just won at Dover so it’s not all doom and gloom for that organization.

    Chevrolet takes racing more seriously than most seeing that they put so much time and effort into their program. They were the last to unveil their Gen-6 car and were very secretive when testing last year. Chevy exemplifies what is reachable when you pour your heart and soul into something.  The record holding 36-time NASCAR Sprint Cup manufacturer champions are looking to win their 11th straight in 2013 and it’s not just NASCAR where they rise above their competition. They are kicking Honda’s tail for the most part in Indycar, Corvette Racing is the most successful team in the history of Le Mans and Chevrolet Cruze has a stranglehold on World Touring Car. I’ll tell you what; I’d love to see General Motors try their hand at Formula 1 so we can see if they have what it takes against the likes of Red Bull, Ferrari and Mercedes.

    The reason why Chevy always seems to be the ones to beat in any form of racing is because of the passion and time they put into all their programs around the world. Toyota is catching up in NASCAR though and I think they are going to have one heck of a battle in 2013. Toyota has never won a driver or manufacturer title in Cup and it would give much more credence to their title hopes should they resolve their engine woes. You can be assured that if they don’t win it all, the car standing in their way when it’s all said and done will most likely feature a gold bow tie on the grill.

     

  • Crunching The Numbers: Pocono/Iowa/Texas

    Crunching The Numbers: Pocono/Iowa/Texas

    After last weekend’s triple-header at Dover International Speedway, the three national series go their separate ways this weekend with the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series headlining at Pocono Raceway, the NASCAR Nationwide Series heading to the Midwest for a Saturday night showdown at Iowa Speedway, and the NASCAR Camping World Truck Series kicking off the weekend in the Lone Star State with their race on Friday night at Texas Motor Speedway. This marks the one and only time during the season that all three series are at three different tracks in three different states in one weekend.

    Sprint Cup Series – Party In The Poconos 400 Presented By Walmart

    The Sprint Cup Series makes its first of two trips to Pocono Raceway this weekend to take on one of the most unique tracks on the circuit. With only three turns instead of the usual four and all three of varying banking (14 degrees in Turn 1, 8 degrees in Turn 2, and 6 degrees in Turn 3), this 2.5 mile track is one of the hardest to perfect a setup for and several of the top drivers in the series have yet to master the “Tricky Triangle”.

    Driver Races Win Top 5 Top 10 Pole Laps Led Avg. Start Avg. Finish
    Jimmie Johnson 22 2 9 15 2 562 9.3 9.0
    Jeff Gordon 40 6 18 28 2 965 11.4 10.2
    Denny Hamlin 14 4 8 9 2 663 5.6 10.7
    Mark Martin 52 0 20 34 3 448 9.3 11.1
    Tony Stewart 28 2 11 20 2 156 12.4 11.3
    Ryan Newman 22 1 7 10 2 163 9.8 12.4
    Carl Edwards 16 2 5 8 0 212 19.0 13.2
    Kevin Harvick 24 0 5 8 0 5 19.8 14.1
    Matt Kenseth 26 0 3 10 0 54 18.5 14.3
    Brad Keselowski 6 1 2 2 0 27 19.5 14.5

    Who To Watch: No surprise with who’s on top of the list this week. Five-time champion Jimmie Johnson heads up the list with the best stats at Pocono with two wins, nine top fives, 15 top tens, two poles, 562 laps led and an average finish of 9.0 in 22 starts.

    While Johnson has the best overall stats, the most wins goes to his Hendrick Motorsports teammate, Jeff Gordon, who has six wins, 18 top fives, 28 top tens, two poles, 965 laps led and an average finish of 10.2 in 40 starts. Two of Gordon’s six wins have come in the last four races at the track, and Gordon is the most recent Pocono winner with his win in the rain shortened event last August.

    Many drivers don’t get their first win at a tricky track like Pocono, but Denny Hamlin did just that, sweeping both Pocono races in his rookie season of 2006 and adding two more wins since then to give him a total of four wins, eight top fives, nine top tens, two poles, 663 laps led, and an average finish of 10.7 in 14 races.

    Others to keep an eye on include: Mark Martin, who nearly won this race one year ago before fading late, with 20 top fives, 34 top tens, three poles, 448 laps led, and an average finish of 11.1 in 52 starts; and Tony Stewart, winner of last week’s race at Dover, who has two wins, 11 top fives, 20 top tens, two poles, 156 laps led, and an average finish of 11.3 in 28 starts.

    Nationwide Series – DuPont Pioneer 250 at Iowa

    With only one Sprint Cup Series regular scheduled to make the trip to Iowa from Pocono this weekend, this race will truly be a showcase of the Nationwide Series regulars in what is sure to be great racing at the .875 mile short track in Iowa. Several of the Nationwide regulars have never turned a lap at this track and who comes out on top after 250 miles is anyone’s guess.

    Driver Races Win Top 5 Top 10 Pole Laps Led Avg. Start Avg. Finish
    Elliott Sadler 4 1 4 4 3 100 2.2 2.8
    Parker Kligerman 1 0 0 1 0 0 10.0 8.0
    Michael Annett 6 0 1 2 0 4 20.7 10.2
    Kenny Wallace 4 0 0 3 0 0 20.2 10.2
    Justin Allgaier 6 0 1 4 0 150 5.8 11.3
    Cole Whitt 2 0 0 1 0 4 12.0 13.0
    Sam Hornish, Jr. 3 0 1 1 0 69 4.0 13.0
    Austin Dillon 4 0 1 2 0 53 7.0 14.2
    Reed Sorenson 3 0 1 2 0 77 16.0 15.3
    Mike Bliss 6 0 0 0 0 3 19.2 17.0

    Who To Watch: As the only driver who will be racing on Saturday that has a win at Iowa, Elliott Sadler comes in far ahead of the other drivers in the field with his one win, four top fives, four top tens, three poles, 100 laps led, and an average finish of 2.8 in four starts.

    Others to keep an eye on that have raced at Iowa before include: Parker Kligerman, Michael Annett, Kenny Wallace, Justin Allgaier, Cole Whitt, Sam Hornish Jr., and Austin Dillon. All of these drivers have average finishes of 14.2 or better.

    While drivers like Joey Logano, Kyle Larson, and points leader Regan Smith have never raced at Iowa, look for these drivers to also be in the running for the win on Saturday night.

    Camping World Truck Series – Winstar World Casino 400 at Texas

    With the Camping World Truck Series race at Texas also being a standalone event, there will be no Sprint Cup regulars making the trip down for Friday night’s race. This means we will get to see a great battle between those that have been in the Truck Series for years and with the young guns that have infiltrated the series this year. Just as we saw a couple of weeks ago at Charlotte, this race should be more of the same with two and three wide racing throughout the field for the entirety of the event.

    Driver Races Win Top 5 Top 10 Pole Laps Led Avg. Start Avg. Finish
    Ty Dillon 3 0 2 3 0 23 6.7 5.0
    Joey Coulter 4 0 2 4 0 9 8.0 5.2
    Johnny Sauter 9 2 4 7 1 213 11.8 6.4
    Todd Bodine 17 6 10 11 1 329 11.3 9.7
    Matt Crafton 24 0 6 13 2 42 15.6 11.0
    James Buescher 8 0 0 3 2 129 7.8 12.6
    Ron Hornaday, Jr. 20 3 6 11 0 681 9.2 12.9
    Brendan Gaughan 17 4 7 7 0 163 17.4 13.6
    David Starr 29 0 7 11 0 20 14.1 14.3
    Timothy Peters 10 0 0 2 0 1 16.4 15.4

    Who To Watch: As Truck Series mainstays, drivers to watch at Texas include: Ty Dillon, with two top fives, three top tens, and an average finish of 5.0 in three starts; Joey Coulter, with two top fives, four top tens, and an average finish of 5.2 in four starts; Johnny Sauter, with two wins, four top fives, seven top tens, one pole, 213 laps led, and an average finish of 6.4 in nine starts; and Todd Bodine, with six wins, 10 top fives, 11 top tens, one pole, 329 laps led, and an average finish of 9.7 in 17 starts.

    While the mainstays will have a leg up in Texas, the young guns of the series can’t be overlooked. Drivers who have shown they have real potential in this sport that are making noise in the Truck Series including Darrell Wallace, Jr., Jeb Burton, and Ryan Blaney. One of these rookies have a real shot at the win, especially with no Cup regulars in the field.

  • Can Denny Hamlin Still Make the Chase After Dover Crash?

    Can Denny Hamlin Still Make the Chase After Dover Crash?

    No one in chase history has made up the kind of deficit Hamlin faces and made the playoffs at this point of the schedule so Denny’s chances seem slim to none. On the other hand, no driver the caliber of Denny Hamlin has ever found themselves in this kind of position 13 races into the season. Hamlin is very fast and will win this year but will it be enough to grab a wildcard spot?

    We all no reaching the top 10 is practically impossible so the target is a wildcard. People keep saying he has to get to 20th if he there’s any hope which is true but don’t fool yourself into thinking 20th with a win means he’s an automatic lock. Everyone in the top 20 right now is plenty capable of winning a race and could make Hamlin’s job that much tougher. In my mind, he will get to 20th but I believe he needs at least two wins if he wants to make the chase. In the three races since his return, Denny has won two poles, posted two top 5’s and led 47 laps. With the way he and Joe Gibbs Racing as a whole are running, I would be shocked if he doesn’t win before chase time.

    The only thing that might hinder his efforts is his back. He was complaining about back pain the morning of the race at Dover and I’m sure that hard impact with the wall late in the going didn’t help it any. He said he was fine when he crashed but I’m sure he felt the consequences of that wreck the following morning. After the race, Denny tweeted “Opportunity missed.. #!*+%!!!” Besides recurring back pain from his injury, the other thing that may kill Hamlin’s charge through the points involves what is under the hood. Toyota Racing Development (TRD) has had multiple engine failures this year costing Kyle Busch a chance at the Coke 600 victory, destroying Kenseth and Truex’s great days at Dover and took JGR and MWR completely out of contention in the Daytona 500. At one point in that race, cars with TRD engines were running 1-2-3-4-5-6 and it ended in a Chevy 1-2. At Dover, TRD powered cars held every spot in the top five early on but by the end of the day, there wasn’t even a Toyota in the top three.

    The issue from Dover appeared to be a valve spring issue and TRD gave a concerning answer when asked what they are going to do to fix the problem…they said it can’t be fixed. It’s the luck of the draw; sometimes you get a good engine while other times you may get a bad one. If I’m Joe Gibbs who gave up his own engine program to use TRD, I would not be very happy with that answer. An engine failure is the last thing Hamlin needs when he can’t afford any more mulligans. On top of that, president of TRD Lee White who made the push to get Toyota into NASCAR announced that he is stepping down immediately and will retire at season’s end. Denny needs to be perfect from this point on with no issues if he wants any shot at making it in. I believe he will make it to the top 20 tough and will win two races but that may not guarantee him a chase spot. He’s going to have to fight the likes of Jeff Gordon, Tony Stewart, Kurt Busch and others but it’s still very possible even after a rough day at the Monster Mile.

  • NASCAR Top-10 Power Rankings: Dover

    NASCAR Top-10 Power Rankings: Dover

    Note: The quotes in this article are fictional.

    1. Jimmie Johnson: Johnson was black-flagged for jumping the final restart at Dover, a mistake that most likely cost him his third win this season. After serving a drive-through penalty, Johnson finished 17th, one lap down.

    “Much like NASCAR did by allowing the NRA to sponsor a race,” Johnson said, “I jumped the gun. Needless to say, I won’t be exchanging pleasantries with NASCAR any time soon. We’re certainly not ‘BFF’s.’ After getting black flagged, it appears I got ‘BF-F’d.’

    “I don’t agree with the call. Obviously, it’s NASCAR’s last-ditch effort to add some color to the sport.”

    2. Matt Kenseth: Kenseth’s day ended abruptly in Dover, as his engine blew on lap 159 with the lead. He finished 40th, his worst finish of the year, and fell one spot in the point standings to fourth, 74 behind Jimmie Johnson.

    “That’s not the first engine to blow,” Kenseth said. “If it’s not our engine, it’s our ‘suspension’ holding us back. What do our engine and ‘suspension’ have in common? They both will ‘expire’ soon.”

    “But there’s one good thing about blowing an engine. The faulty parts get burned beyond recognition. Ha! Take that, NASCAR inspectors.”

    3. Carl Edwards: Edwards finished 14th at Dover, as Roush Fenway Racing cars all finished in the top 15. Edwards remained second in the point standings, 30 out of first.

    “Roush cars took the 13th, 14th, and 15th spots,” Edwards said. “All week long, Ricky Stenhouse has been singing Al Green’s ‘Let’s Stay Together.’ I guess Greg Biffle and I thought he was singing to us.

    “But it remains to be seen what lasts longer for Stenhouse—his relationship, or his manhood.”

    4. Kyle Busch: Busch led a race-high 150 laps and finished fourth in the Fed Ex 400 at Dover International Raceway, posting his sixth top 5 of the year. He is ninth in the Sprint Cup point standings, and trails Jimmie Johnson by 99.

    “NASCAR races will soon be covered on TNT,” Busch said. “Interestingly enough, that’s home to the series Falling Skies. Fox recently became the home to a new series—Falling Cables.”

    5. Clint Bowyer: Bowyer came home fourth at Dover, scoring the top finish for Michael Waltrip Racing. He moved up one spot to third in the point standings, and is 50 out of first.

    “We’re still searching for our first win of the year,” Bowyer said. “It’s not a matter of ‘if,’ it’s a matter of ‘when.’ That also applies to the matter of whether a Toyota engine will explode. In that respect, Toyota’s got a lot of ‘whens’ this year.”

    6. Kevin Harvick: After winning in Charlotte last week, Harvick finished eighth at Dover for his fifth top-10 result of the year. He is now fourth in the Sprint Cup point standings, 74 out of first.

    “The finish at Dover begs the question,” Harvick said. “Who’s faster? Jimmy John’s or Jimmie Johnson. All I know is that Jimmy John’s, unlike Jimmie Johnson, can’t get their too fast.”

    7. Kasey Kahne: Kahne led two laps early and was headed for a sure top-10 finish before a late incident left him with rear-end damage. He finished 23rd, four laps down, and fell two spots to seventh in the point standings, 81 out of first.

    “Have you heard?” Kahne said. “There’s a new swimsuit calendar coming out featuring 12 of NASCAR’s sexiest inspectors in bikinis. It’s called ‘Sanctioning Bodies.’”

    8. Brad Keselowski: Keselowski posted his first top-10 finish since Kansas with a fifth at Dover. The defending Sprint Cup champion is now eighth in the point standings, 98 behind Jimmie Johnson.

    “I’m well behind Johnson,” Keselowski said, “and my car failed post-race inspection at Dover. I’m the defending Cup champion, but I’m not driving like it. I don’t know who’s ‘come down’ harder this year—-NASCAR or me.

    “NASCAR said the front of our car was too low, and I was penalized for it. That’s odd, because as A.J. Allmendinger found out, Penske drivers are often penalized for being too high.”

    9. Tony Stewart: Stewart benefitted on Jimmie Johnson’s black flag and caught Juan Montoya with three laps to go to win the Fed Ex 400 at Dover. The win ended a four-month winless drought, and moved Stewart up to 16th in the point standings.

    “I like my wins like I like my food,” Stewart said. “Served on a silver platter. And apparently, I like my wins like I like my women—single. And, I like my wins like I like my engines—gift-wrapped from Hendrick Motorsports.”

    10. Dale Earnhardt, Jr.: Earnhardt posted a quiet 10th-place finish at Dover, collecting his eighth top 10 of the year. He remained sixth in the point standings, where he trails Jimmie Johnson by 75.

    “I still feel like we’re building on something here,” Earnhardt said. “Unfortunately, it’s another long winless streak.”