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  • My Official Way Too Early 2024 NASCAR Cup Series Playoff Predictions

    My Official Way Too Early 2024 NASCAR Cup Series Playoff Predictions

    As the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series season slowly approaches, it’s time for me and every other NASCAR fan with any type of platform to make our Playoff predictions for the 2024 season, going from drivers who seem to be locks to those who will squeak in. Let’s get started, shall we?

    Virtual Locks (These Guys Are Shoe Ins)

    Ryan Blaney, No. 12 Ford Mustang Dark Horse, Team Penske

    Yes, I’m legally obligated to place the defending Cup Series champion in this category, but I do think the newly engaged driver will pretty easily make the Playoffs. I’d be shocked if he doesn’t win multiple races in the regular season. We’ll see Blaney make a solid case for title defense in 2024. 

    Kyle Larson, No. 5 Chevrolet Camaro, Hendrick Motorsports 

    Perhaps the most obvious choice, Larson has been dynamite ever since joining HMS in 2021. Larson has 17 wins in his 3 years with the team, and he’s my pick to lead the league in wins next year. Yung Money won’t just make the Playoffs, he’ll be the #1 seed after Darlington. 

    William Byron, No. 24 Chevrolet Camaro, Hendrick Motorsports 

    Following a breakout year in which he won 6 times, Byron is looking to finish the job with his first Cup Series championship in 2024. All the pieces are there for Byron, and I think he’ll win at least 3 times in the regular season. He and teammate Kyle Larson will once more pace the field out of the gates. 

    Christopher Bell, No. 20 Toyota Camry XSE, Joe Gibbs Racing

    Bell’s championship hopes were dashed early at Phoenix due to a mechanical failure, but the Norman, Oklahoma native has made 2 consecutive Final 4 appearances. All signs point to him being able to do so again in 2024. Bell wins his way into the playoffs by the halfway mark of the regular season. 

    Denny Hamlin, No. 11 Toyota Camry XSE, Joe Gibbs Racing 

    Following shoulder surgery in the offseason, Hamlin’s status for the Busch Light Clash is in question. Hopefully, he won’t have to miss any points races, but even if he does, I have the driver of the #11 in Victory Lane before Atlanta kicks off the postseason. Hamlin will get another chance to chase down that elusive Cup Series title. 

    Kyle Busch, No. 8 Chevrolet Camaro, Richard Childress Racing 

    2023 was a campaign filled with inconsistency for the younger Busch brother, whose 3 wins all came in the first 15 races of the season. The 2nd half of the year was plagued with wrecks and slow race cars. Busch will easily make the Playoffs, but how far will he go? That’s impossible to predict. 

    I Feel Good, But…

    Chase Elliott, No. 9 Chevrolet Camaro, Hendrick Motorsports 

    Elliott’s 2023 season was marred by injury, poor decisions by both driver and crew chief in the heat of the moment (see Charlotte and Watkins Glen), and a lack of race-winning speed down the stretch. While the year was an anomaly and not at all normal, it was slightly jarring to see a driver who had made three consecutive Championship 4s miss the Playoffs entirely, no matter the circumstances. Elliott will get to Victory Lane before Atlanta, but the race-winning speed needs to be much more prevalent for me to consider them championship contenders again. 

    Martin Truex Jr, No. 19 Toyota Camry XSE, Joe Gibbs Racing

    Truex and company fell apart in the Playoffs last season, somehow making it to the Round of 8 and not putting up much of a fight in said round. Truex will win a race or two, but the team’s performance in the Playoffs will determine if Truex wants to retire or not at the end of the year. Regular-season Truex will be fine, but can the #19 crew find the same spark in the Playoffs?

    Joey Logano, No. 22 Ford Mustang Dark Horse, Team Penske

    2023 was a lackluster title defense from Logano, as he only turned in one victory and was eliminated in the Round of 16. However, 2024 should be a great year if the trends continue – Logano has never missed the Championship 4 in an even-numbered season since the knockout style format was introduced in 2014. I’m not one for superstition, but it seems Logano is reading the stars right in even-numbered years. Logano will win a couple in the regular season, but don’t be surprised if he comes out of Phoenix with his 3rd championship. 

    Tyler Reddick, No. 45 Toyota Camry XSE, 23XI Racing 

    In a year plagued with inconsistency, late race mistakes, and the #45 team giving away stage points like candy on Halloween, they unexpectedly turned up the wick in the Playoffs, even winning at Kansas. Reddick has lofty expectations on his shoulders entering 2024, and a Championship 4 appearance doesn’t at all seem out of the question. Reddick will win in the 2024 regular season, but the team needs to capitalize on all available opportunities for points to make a deep run. 

    Chris Buescher, No. 17 Ford Mustang Dark Horse, RFK Racing 

    Hailing from a town of just 30,000(if you know, you know), Chris Buescher had his breakout year in 2023, winning 3 races and advancing to the Round of 8 in the Playoffs. RFK has the potential to take the next step in 2024, and many consider Buescher to be a dark horse to make a run at the championship if he gathers enough Playoff points. 

    Brad Keselowski, No. 6 Ford Mustang Dark Horse, RFK Racing

    While he went winless, Keselowski looked the best he had since 2020 when he made the Championship 4. While he got bounced in the Round of 12, the speed in the #6 car was a very uplifting sight. The next item on Keselowski’s agenda? Breaking a nearly 3-year long winless streak dating back to the spring Talladega race in 2021. 

    By The Skin Of Their Teeth…

    Bubba Wallace, No. 23 Toyota Camry XSE, 23XI Racing 

    I think Bubba will be the best of the “Skin of Their Teeth” group, and he may even win a race to lock himself in. However, he (and the whole of 23XI) need to prove that they can start a season as quickly as they can finish it. If they can start fast (or even mitigate the slow start) this could be a special season for Bubba and the #23 group. 

    Ross Chastain, No. 1 Chevrolet Camaro, Trackhouse Racing 

    This may be a bit of an overreaction, but was Chastain’s Championship 4 run in 2022 a fluke? Not to take anything away from the very impressive 2-year resume they’ve put together, but 2023 seemed to detract from all the glitz and glamor that 2022 brought. 2023 only reaped 2 wins and an early Playoff exit. Chastain will either point or win his way into the postseason next year, but I don’t think he’s the easy lock as many declare him to be. 

    Alex Bowman, No. 48 Chevrolet Camaro, Hendrick Motorsports 

    Bowman recently announced that he will cut back on non-NASCAR sanctioned races (Big Bill France would be proud) in order to focus on his full-time Cup Series obligations. After an incredible start to 2023, a couple of penalties knocked Bowman and new crew chief Blake Harris down a couple of rungs on the proverbial ladder. After Bowman missed time with a back injury sustained in a sprint car accident, he never found his groove again. Slow cars, late race incidents, and uncharacteristic mistakes (see the Southern 500) plagued a horrific 2nd half of the season. While I don’t think he will win next year, Bowman is good enough to still point himself into the postseason. Here’s to hoping he can have his first fully healthy season since 2021 when he won 4 races. 

    And Finally…

    Ty Gibbs, No. 54 Toyota Camry XSE, Joe Gibbs Racing 

    While not the most popular pick, Gibbs caught fire in the summer during last season, producing several runs that show he’s more than just hype. Gibbs might just narrowly point his way into the 2024 Playoffs, but he’s determined to show he belongs, and I think he beats out several veterans for the final Playoff spot. 

    Just A Bit Outside…

    Michael McDowell, No. 34 Ford Mustang Dark Horse, Front Row Motorsports

    This one pains me to type, but McDowell isn’t quite consistent enough at intermediates and short tracks to lead me to believe he can point his way in. With the Indy Road Course and Watkins Glen removed from the regular season schedule, I don’t see enough legitimate winning opportunities for McDowell to place him in my early Playoff bracket. I hope he proves me wrong, but Father Time has to start catching up at some point. 

    Chase Briscoe, No. 14 Ford Mustang Dark Horse, Stewart Haas Racing 

    Call me crazy, but I don’t see any SHR cars in the postseason next year. I would place Berry, Preece & Gragson in my next category of “Next Four Out” (in NCAA Tournament terms). That being said, a young talent in Briscoe is their best chance. That win at Phoenix in 2022, nor his Cinderella run to the Round of 8, has escaped my brain. That being said, SHR’s cars aren’t quite good enough, and Briscoe still has a lot to learn. If he could go more than 3 or 4 races without being a lap down in Stage 1, I’ll amend my prediction. Until he consistently runs with the big dogs, I can’t place him in the postseason. 

    Ricky Stenhouse Jr, No. 47 Chevrolet Camaro, JTG Daugherty Racing 

    Coming off the best year for JTG since 2014, Stenhouse & Co. looked extremely competitive in the first half of the year before cooling off and being escorted from the Playoffs in the first round. A Daytona 500 win is huge for the team, but without a win, I don’t think the team is fast enough to make up a points gap. 

    Erik Jones, No. 43 Toyota Camry XSE, Legacy Motor Club

    I think That Jones Boy outperforms his teammate, but will still come up short of a Playoff spot. Jones will rebound from a terrible 2023 campaign, but without a victory, I don’t see LMC having fast enough cars to go point for point with the likes of Chastain, Gibbs, and Bowman.

    Next Four Out: 

    Berry, Suarez, Preece, Gragson

    25th-28th: 

    Cindric, Nemechek, Dillon, Lajoie

    Per usual, please don’t come back to this article after the Southern 500 to see how badly these takes have aged. They’ll all be incinerated by Memorial Day.

  • My official way too early 2024 NASCAR Xfinity Series Playoff predictions

    My official way too early 2024 NASCAR Xfinity Series Playoff predictions

    In what’s been an extremely entertaining, drama-filled offseason, it’s finally time for me to make Playoff predictions in December that everyone will be laughing at by June. So again, please don’t revisit this article after the regular season finale. 

    Virtual Locks (These Guys Are Shoe-ins)

    Cole Custer, No. 00 Ford Mustang, Stewart Haas Racing 

    After being relegated to the Xfinity Series, Cole Custer did what many fans thought he could do; he went out and proved that he still belongs in the upper echelons of NASCAR. Custer won thrice in 2023 en route to his first Xfinity Series championship and will try to repeat in 2024 to prove to the racing world that he deserves another chance in the Cup Series. I think he wins two or three in the regular season and is postseason-bound by week five or six. 

    AJ Allmendinger, No. 16 Chevrolet Camaro, Kaulig Racing 

    Kaulig may have the most exciting lineup of any multi-car team in any NASCAR series next year. AJ Allmendinger and Shane Van Gisbergen are all but guaranteed to be contenders at every road course, and Allmendinger is essentially a lock to be a part of the postseason field. While still looking for his first Xfinity Series championship, he’s a three-time regular season champ and is coming off a Cup Series win at the Charlotte Roval. As far as championship picks go, he’s a popular one. 

    Justin Allgaier, No. 7 Chevrolet Camaro, JR Motorsports 

    Similar to fellow veteran Matt Crafton, Allgaier is 8-8 in terms of making the Playoffs. Unlike Crafton, however, he has failed to bring home a championship in his six Championship 4 appearances, but he’s always advanced through at least one round. While nobody is guaranteed to ever win a championship, Allgaier is about the safest bet you could possibly have to make the postseason, simply because he’s never missed it.

    Sam Mayer, No. 1 Chevrolet Camaro, JR Motorsports 

    Would I have made this pick a year ago? Absolutely not. But a month after Mayer won four times, and twice in the clutch, it feels like I have to. Add in his first Final 4 appearance, and Mayer is riding on as much momentum as any non-champion in the sport right now. It’ll take 10 races at the most before Mayer is locked into the 2024 Playoffs. 

    Austin Hill, No. 21 Chevrolet Camaro, Richard Childress Racing

    Hill is another driver I’m not sure I would’ve considered a lock before the start of last season, but he proved myself and everyone else wrong. Despite missing the Championship 4 and the infamous RCR meltdown at Martinsville, Hill compiled four wins and 24 top 10s in 2023, not bad at all for a guy who was thought to only be a superspeedway specialist heading into the season. I would be shocked if he’s not locked in after the first 2 races of the year at Daytona and Atlanta. 

    Feeling Pretty Good…

    Sammy Smith, No. 8 Chevrolet Camaro, JR Motorsports 

    While he only won one race last season, Sammy Smith showed how much raw talent and potential he has by absolutely whipping the field in their first trip to Phoenix last March. Inconsistency was a problem at times, as he only compiled 15 top 10s, and that will be his biggest adversary en route to a Playoff spot. Despite this, I see him getting in with a victory around the halfway mark of the regular season, if not before. 

    Riley Herbst, No. 98 Ford Mustang, Stewart-Haas Racing

    Herbst broke out in a big way last season, but it was just a little too late for him to make a run at the championship. It figures that the first year he misses the Xfinity Series Playoffs, he heats up in crunch time. The win in Vegas and a subsequent second-place finish at Homestead laid the groundwork for what many expect to be his breakout season in 2024. If Herbst can’t get to Victory Lane, he’ll be consistent enough to point his way in. 

    Chandler Smith, No. 81 Toyota Supra, Joe Gibbs Racing 

    The first JGR car to appear on this list, Smith collected his first Xfinity Series win at Richmond last spring, and nearly won at Las Vegas in the third race of the season before a last-lap pass by Austin Hill thwarted his plans. Smith brings a boatload of talent to an organization primed to have its best year of Xfinity Series competition yet. Like Sammy Smith, inconsistency plagued him at times in 2023, (only 13 top 10s in 33 races) but when he showed up, he was likely to be the class of the field. He’ll be back in Victory Lane at least once, if not more, in 2024. 

    Sheldon Creed, No. 18 Toyota Supra, Joe Gibbs Racing

    Like Austin Hill, many will remember Sheldon Creed’s 2023 campaign for the Martinsville Meltdown, which he admittedly got the rougher side of. Now with a new team, Creed is looking for his first Xfinity Series win and a second consecutive Playoff berth. He’s seemingly lost in every way possible, so I don’t think he really cares where or how he breaks through into Victory Lane. 

    By The Skin Of Their Teeth…

    Parker Kligerman, No. 48 Chevrolet Camaro, Big Machine Racing

    Kligerman impressed a lot of fans last season by making the Playoffs, and I think he will do so again. He was relatively close to a win on a couple of occasions, but I think he and the No. 48 team will squeak by into the postseason for the second consecutive year. Don’t rule out a win though – Kligerman very nearly won at Atlanta last year before spinning backward across the line to finish third. 

    Brandon Jones, No. 9 Chevrolet Camaro, JR Motorsports 

    It’s completely understandable to doubt Brandon Jones after a poor showing in 2023. But in his second year with JRM, I expect Jones to take a big step forward. I don’t think he will win a race, but better speed at the end of 2023 serves as a preview of what Jones can do. Behind all the pay driver jokes is a young driver who still has a ton of talent. Lest we forget he straight-up beat Kyle Busch one-on-one at Phoenix in 2020. I think Jones will have to scrap for his Playoff spot in 2024, but his “big race” experience outweighs that of his bubble competitors, and its value can’t be understated. 

    And Finally…

     Shane Van Gisbergen, No. 97 Chevrolet Camaro, Kaulig Racing

    Accuse me of recency bias, buying into the hype, or whatever else you want to call it, but so long as Kaulig provides him with good race cars, SVG will be competitive. I put him in this category because it’ll be close on points unless he can win at a road course, which is a definite possibility. No disrespect intended towards Josh Williams, Hailie Deegan, Brett Moffitt, or any other bubble drivers, but the talent of SVG will be too much for them to overcome. 

    Just A Bit Outside…

    Josh Williams, No. 11 Chevrolet Camaro, Kaulig Racing

    Williams brings personality and a great work ethic to Kaulig, but is there top-level talent to match the top-level equipment? No disrespect to Williams, who has made do with sub-par equipment, but 11 top 10s in 186 career Xfinity Series races doesn’t scream Year 1 Playoff driver to me. Hopefully, Williams proves me wrong, but I’ll wait till 2025 to put NASCAR’s favorite valet in the postseason. 

    Jesse Love, No. 2 Chevrolet Camaro, Richard Childress Racing 

    The raw talent is there. The equipment is there. The team is there. But three Truck Series starts is Love’s only experience in the top three series of NASCAR. I understand why RCR went with him, as he has the potential to be NASCAR’s next superstar, but a lack of experience in big moments keeps him out of the Playoffs in 2024. Stay tuned for 2025, though, where I think he’ll be a championship contender. Don’t expect the 2023 ARCA champ (and 10-time race winner) to stay quiet for very long. 

    Hailie Deegan, No. 15 Ford Mustang, AM Racing

    I’ve been pretty critical of Deegan’s lack of results in good Truck Series equipment, but that 2022 Las Vegas Xfinity race, in which Deegan finished 13th in her NXS debut driving for SS Greenlight, can’t be ignored. It’s only one race, but if Deegan takes to the Xfinity Series quickly, she could prove me wrong and be a contender. Similar to Jesse Love, however, she doesn’t have much “big race” experience, which could prove costly once the bubble battle heats up in August and September. 

    Jeb Burton, No. 27 Chevrolet Camaro, Jordan Anderson Racing

    Jeb Burton was frustrating to watch last season. The win at Talladega was nice, but it’d be great if he could show that he can win at the non-superspeedways as well. That victory at Talladega was his only top-five and just six top 10s meant he was easily disposed of in the Round of 12. If Burton wants to point his way in, he’ll need to minimize DNFs and find creative ways (such as pit strategy) to jump ahead of the usual contenders on the racetrack. 

    Next Four Out: Jeremy Clements, Ryan Sieg, Ryan Ellis, Brennan Poole

    So, there you have it. Sixteen more predictions that will likely all be ruined by race six or seven. Again, I ask you to please not revisit this article after the Xfinity Series regular-season finale to see how incredibly wrong I was. 

    Here’s to another fantastic year of the NASCAR Xfinity Series!

  • Preview and Predictions: Food City 500

    Preview and Predictions: Food City 500

    After we nearly saw Dale Earnhardt Jr. clinch his first multi-win season since 2004, the series heads over to the first short track race of the season at Bristol Motor Speedway. With zero top-fives in the last 10 races there, Dale Jr. will have his work cut out for him if he wants to maintain his streak of top-two finishes. However, his rival Brad Keselowski could very easily maintain his streak of top-five finishes.

    Bristol Motor Speedway is a tough half-mile race track, with racing there being equated to flying jet fighters in a gymnasium. With the current surface, we’ve seen a lack of bump-and-runs that made Bristol so exciting. But with this new points system that puts a large incentive on winning, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a driver put the bumper to another guy in order to win. Almost every driver will tell you they wouldn’t wreck a guy to win a race, but they may consider “rattling their cage.” In any case, here’s a couple drivers to keep an eye on, and one of them might end up in victory lane.

    Kyle Busch 

    In recent memory, when you think of Bristol, you think of Kyle Busch. He’s scored a whopping 160 more points than any other driver in the last 10 races there, and he’s found victory lane in four of those races, the latest being the spring race of 2011. Add that to his impressive average finish of 7.8 over the last 10 starts at Bristol and it becomes easy to see why Rowdy Busch is always the man to beat at Bristol. 

    Brad Keselowski

    I’m not entirely sure what Team Penske has done to their race cars, but they have been extremely fast all year long. Joey Logano sits fourth in points with two top-fives in three races, but his teammate Brad Keselowski is even better. Keselowski is just one point behind points leader Dale Earnhardt Jr. and has three top-fives in three races. In very recent memory, Brad K. has made Bristol Motor Speedway one of his best tracks, winning two of the last five. His average finish of 13th may not sound so great, but with the success and speed Team Penske have had this year, it would be a surprise to not see the White Deuce run up front. 

    Jimmie Johnson

    When you think of Jimmie Johnson’s best tracks, Bristol usually doesn’t spring into mind, but after some research, I was surprised by how consistent Johnson has been at the half-mile race track. His five top-fives and seven top-10 finishes in the past 10 races there are equal to Kyle Busch, and he won a Bristol race in 2010. Also keep in mind that Johnson will be driving Chassis 728 this weekend. This chassis completely dominated at Pocono last year, won at Indy in 2012, and finished second at Indy last year. The success of Chassis 728 will continue on Sunday and Johnson will come home solidly inside the top-10. 

    Even though six-time has shown great consistency at Bristol over the past few years, I still believe the race will be between Brad Keselowski and Kyle Busch, and I actually will give the edge to Mr. Keselowski. With the speed Team Penske has had in 2014, it’s evident that he looks a little better than his Joe Gibbs Racing rival Kyle Busch. As a diehard race fan, I can’t wait to see who conquers Thunder Valley.

    All statistics retrieved from Racing-Reference.info.

  • Daytona 500: Three Important Questions Answered

    Daytona 500: Three Important Questions Answered

    With all the rule changes, driver swaps, and format modifications, this has been one of the most hectic off-seasons in recent memory. But, a fresh season of NASCAR awaits as the Daytona 500 draws nearer. Plenty of questions are still buzzing around the heads of many fans. Will Jimmie Johnson win back-to-back Daytona 500s? Will Austin Dillon be a legitimate contender? Will Dale Earnhardt Jr. be a bridesmaid once more? I can tell you without hesitation that the answer to one of those questions is no.

    The notion that Jimmie Johnson will win the Daytona 500 is just as preposterously outlandish as predicting Danica Patrick to bring home the Sprint Cup Championship. Regardless of the fact that it’s Jimmie Johnson we’re discussing, his recent record in the Great American Race is abysmal. Other than winning it twice, he crashed and finished 39th in 2007, came home a mediocre 27th in 2008, and finished a lowly 31st in 2009. The succeeding year was not much better as a broken rear axle led to a 35th place finish. Let’s also not forget that the last time a driver won back-to-back 500s was in the mid-90s, and the last time a driver won three in a row at Daytona was in the late 60s. I realize that Jimmie Johnson is one of the sport’s greatest drivers, but the evidence suggests that it’s unlikely he’ll win it again.

    One of the top storylines of the off-season was the re-emergence of the No. 3 Richard Childress Racing (RCR) Chevrolet. This historic number hasn’t been used in NASCAR’s premier series since Dale Earnhardt’s tragic death in 2001. Now, Childress’s grandson Austin Dillon will get behind the wheel and attempt to get the 3 car back in victory lane. The craziest part about it is that there is a very real possibility that he will end up there. If testing was any indication, all of the RCR cars showed tremendous speed around the 2.5-mile oval, and Dillon was the fastest of them all.  Couple that with the fact that RCR always has a strong restrictor plate package, and we could be reliving 1998 all over again.

    As much as fans would adore seeing the No. 3 car back in the winner’s circle at Daytona, they may even be more ecstatic to see Dale Earnhardt Jr. holding the Harley J. Earl trophy. Unlike his Hendrick stalemate Johnson, Junior’s record in the 500 has been pretty solid over the past few years. He’s established himself as a Daytona 500 bridesmaid after finishing second in 2010, 2012, and 2013, and fans are left to question whether or not he’ll win it again.

    Feel free to start the party early Dale Jr. fans, because not only will he run up front for the majority of the race, there’s an extremely strong chance he’ll wind up in victory lane. If the fall Talladega race is any indication, the 88 team can produce one heck of a restrictor plate package, and they will bring the best they have for race day. In the closing laps, Junior may methodically slice his way through the field and be the first driver to cross the start/finish line.

    Jimmie Johnson won’t win, the No. 3 will be a serious contender, and Dale Earnhardt Jr. won’t be a bridesmaid this year. Right about now, 90 percent of the NASCAR fan base is grinning ear-to-ear, and they should keep grinning, because this is going to be an outstanding opener to an exceptionally exciting NASCAR season.

  • SPRINT CUP: Early Predictions for Championship Weekend

    SPRINT CUP: Early Predictions for Championship Weekend

    This is it. The final showdown. Matt Kenseth and Jimmie Johnson have gone toe-to-toe all throughout the Chase, and it all gets settled on Sunday.

    Both drivers are separated by a mere 10 points, and … wait a second, I forgot the AdvoCare 500 happened. Back to reality, Johnson has a nearly insurmountable 28 point advantage going into the final race at Homestead-Miami Speedway. I did not expect Kenseth to lose many points on Johnson, but thanks to a couple 20 second pit stops and an ill-handling racecar, the driver of the 20 car had to settle for a mediocre 23rd place finish, while Johnson came home third.

    With that being said, Kenseth is more than likely going to have to win the race and rely on Johnson slipping out of the top 25. Is it possible? Absolutely. Is it going to happen? Definitely not. Johnson will nonchalantly hang around in a comfortable position inside the top 15 to easily secure his sixth championship.

    As much as I hate to admit it, as far as the championship battle is concerned, it might be a real yawn-fest on Sunday, with Johnson nearly guaranteed to become “Mr. 6 Pack.”

    However, the same can’t be said about the other drivers who will be looking for a win. Here a few drivers you should keep an eye on, and one of them might end up in Victory Lane.

    Carl Edwards

    Recent history at Homestead-Miami Speedway has shown that Edwards has been one of the drivers to beat at that track. Over the past five races at HMS, he’s scored two wins (2008 and 2010), three top fives and four top 10s. He’s also led over a third of the laps he’s completed during that time period, and he has an average finish of a stunning 4.6. Edwards also has a couple wins this year, but they both came on tracks 1-mile or smaller. Can Edwards bounce back from the fuel debacle last week and end the season on a high-note? It’s very likely.

    Kevin Harvick

    Kevin Harvick has been a formidable contender on the 1.5 mile tracks this year, posting victories at Charlotte and Kansas. He also won last week, thanks to Edwards’ misfortunes. As far as his recent history at Homestead-Miami is concerned, Harvick hasn’t won in his last seven starts there, but he’s been very solid, notching four top fives and six top 10s. He’s also scored the second most points of any other driver during that time period, and has an average finish of 6.9. Harvick had a solid eighth place finish at the 2012 event, and I expect him to better that performance on Sunday.

    Jeff Gordon

    Although Homestead-Miami Speedway has been mostly dominated by Roush Fenway Racing throughout the years, Jeff Gordon of Hendrick Motorsports went to victory lane last year, and he could repeat his performance. Over his past 10 starts, Gordon has posted one victory (2012), six top fives, eight top 10s, and an average finish of 9.8. He’s finished in the top five in his last two trips to HMS, so look for Big Daddy to replicate that kind of performance.

    Expectations for Matt Kenseth 

    The way I see it, Kenseth has two choices going into Sunday. First choice, he can put an aggressive set-up on the car that will maximize his opportunity to win the race, but could cause mechanical failure, which could drop him to third in the final standings behind Kevin Harvick. Second choice, he can shoot for a solid top five run and ultimately put up the white flag of surrender to Johnson and settle for second place.

    It doesn’t take a genius to realize that Kenseth will all but certainly choose the first choice. Kenseth still has a infinitesimally minuscule slimmer of hope left to win this championship, and the only way to stop Johnson from becoming six-time is to lead the most laps and win the race, and hope that Johnson somehow stays out of the top 25.

    When everything is said and done, I fully expect Johnson to be hoisting the championship trophy, with the final points margin being somewhere around 10-15.