Today, I’ll be taking a look at Matt Kenseth, Jimmie Johnson, Martin Truex Jr., and Carl Edwards, seeds 8-5 on the Sprint Cup Chase Grid.
Seeds 16-13
Seeds 12-9
- Matt Kenseth
With the retirements of Tony Stewart and Jeff Gordon, and the unknown status of Dale Earnhardt Jr., Matt Kenseth finds himself as the most experienced driver in the field.
When Kenseth left his home at Roush Fenway Racing to go over to Joe Gibbs Racing, it could be argued it was a short sighted move. Yes, Joey Logano hadn’t done a whole lot in the four seasons before that in the No. 20 Toyota. But Kenseth was almost double Logano’s age and had never driven full time for anybody but Roush in the Cup series. It was a bit of a gamble for Gibbs, who traditionally doesn’t sign big name Cup free agents; Coach Gibbs has always typically developed young talent like he did in football. With the exception of Bobby Labonte and Dale Jarrett, the organization’s first two drivers, Gibbs had never hired a driver with any Cup experience who hadn’t run for the team in a lower series.
Kenseth promptly went out in 2013, won seven races, and finished second in points. Neither Kenseth or Gibbs have ever looked back.
Although Logano, Kyle Busch, and Kevin Harvick have gotten the headlines the last few years, Kenseth has quietly put together a very successful run. Since 2013, Kenseth ranks third in most laps led, tied for second in most victories, and fifth in total top 10s.
Pros
Toyota, Toyota, Toyota. TRD has won 25 of the last 36 races, and Kenseth counts for six of those. The manufacturer is so good, they are actually leading the Manufacturer’s Championship point standings right now. Said championship has been won by Chevrolet every year since 2002. Jason Ratcliff has also made a name for himself as one of the best crew chiefs in the game, with the team having won three races in the last two seasons due partially to key strategy calls by Ratcliff.
Cons
Kenseth is actually having his worst season since 2009 as far as average finishes go. His four top fives this season are tied for third worst among Chase drivers. He has struggled in the past month, with only two top 10s since finishing second at Indianapolis. His ongoing feud with Team Penske has shown no signs of stopping. Finally, his two wins this season haven’t been that impressive. Kenseth won Dover after an 18 car accident took out a lot of good cars in the last 50 laps, and he held on by beating two drivers who, at the time, hadn’t won Cup races before. Loudon was won after passing Martin Truex Jr., who has a history of throwing away races, and only led a total of 76 of 700 total laps in the two victories.
Overall
Kenseth could very well make a comeback in the Chase- a great crew chief and great equipment could allow that. But will he make a comeback in the Chase? He just hasn’t shown signs of doing that just yet.
- Jimmie Johnson
This season Jimmie Johnson did something most figured he’d do, but that makes the accomplishment no less impressive.
Johnson started off early and won Atlanta, his 76th Sprint Cup win, tying with Dale Earnhardt Sr. on the all-time wins list. Just three weeks later, Johnson won at Auto Club to break the tie.
Not counting a technically retired Jeff Gordon or a soon-to-be retired Tony Stewart, Johnson’s 77 career wins are more than double any other active driver. No other driver in history has won six or more championships in 14 full-time seasons. Not counting either Gordon or Stewart, no other active driver even has multiple championships. In 12 of those 14 seasons, Johnson finished top five in points, something no other driver has done in history.
Suffice it to say, Jimmie Johnson is going to be first-ballot Hall of Famer. And just remember that Johnson runs marathons in his off time and is turning only 41 next week. There are probably 10-15 more years of Johnson in this sport if he can keep up the pace. Unlike with Gordon, where generally only hardcore fans thought he’d get to win 100 (He has 93), it’s very possible Johnson could break the triple digit mark before his 50th birthday. And remember, this is against some of the toughest competition, year-to-year, there has ever been in racing. He’s always going to be a threat for the championship.
Pros
It’s Jimmie Johnson. Do I really need to write anything here that hasn’t already been written a hundred times before by more talented writers? Best crew chief in the game, Johnson has won everywhere, has handled more pressure over his career than once thought humanly possible, blah blah blah.
Cons
If there is ever a season to bet against Johnson going into the Chase, it’s this one. Usually, the No. 48 team obviously spends late summer testing things out and can suffer from performance problems because of it right before the Chase. But unlike most seasons, this year all of Hendrick has struggled in the summer, losing ground to Team Penske and even more ground to the Toyota teams. Johnson himself has one top five and three top 10s since Charlotte in May, worse than pedestrian numbers for “Superman.”
Overall
If Jimmie Johnson wins the Sprint Cup championship this season, he will probably go down as the greatest driver of all time. Maybe this long summer lull has all been Chad Knaus’ plan for this season. But I doubt the plan involved all of Hendrick running poorly. It’s just not looking like 2016 will be the year “Six-time” turns into “Seven-time.”
- Martin Truex Jr.
I wrote an article last year after Furniture Row Racing announced they were switching to Toyota. While it was pretty obvious the switch from RCR customer to funded Toyota team would work, I thought year one would have the team take a step back before taking two steps forward in 2017.
Well, suffice it to say, that was wrong.
Martin Truex Jr.’s return to Toyota has been even more successful than when he left. He dominated and won the Coca-Cola 600, the most dominant win in the history of NASCAR, and beat Kevin Harvick in a late race duel in the Southern 500. Truex came a hair away from winning the Daytona 500 in February as well, which would have marked only the third time in the history of racing that a driver won all three in one year.
Now, “Big Time Truex” enters the Chase as a favorite to win the championship, just one year after making it to the final four and finishing the night fourth in points.
Pros
In 2014, Truex joined Furniture Row and struggled, leading only one lap. In 2015, Truex improved to 567 laps led. In 2016, Truex has been even better, leading 1,234 laps. That’s only 10 off of Kyle Busch’s series-best of 1,244. The No. 78 is at its best on 1.5 mile tracks, a track type common in the Chase; this season they have a worst finish of just 11th and a win at Charlotte. As outlined above, Truex is at his best when the lights are the brightest.
Cons
Using career stats, Truex had led 957 laps per win before Charlotte, far and away the lowest of any multiple win driver in history. Even now, his mark at 738.2 laps led per victory is still the worst of any other multiple win driver in history, by 100 laps. Truex has a reputation of having terrible luck, leading 100 or more laps at five races this season and he only won one of them. The team’s close alliance with Joe Gibbs Racing hasn’t been an issue at all yet, but they haven’t competed for a championship yet. The question of if JGR will be able to help provide Furniture Row the tools to win a championship that they are also competing for, should be asked.
Overall
Martin Truex Jr. enters the Chase as a favorite, and rightfully so. There’s no reason for the New Jersey driver not to be hoisting the championship at the end of the season. If they aren’t, it’s going to be either the usual case of bad luck at a bad time or it’s all going to be on this team. They might not even be able to recover from it for a year or two if there is a close championship loss, quite frankly.
- Carl Edwards
From a marketing standpoint, is there a more perfect driver than Carl Edwards?
The 37 year old Missourian driver has charisma that can appeal to the working man in the stands and, at the same time, to the board room full of Mercedes driving businessmen. He’s in prime athletic shape and can be pointed to by the sport as evidence that drivers are athletes. Most importantly, he can name drop sponsors in interviews without it sounding forced.
But don’t think Carl Edwards doesn’t care about racing.
If Edwards really wanted to, he could have stayed with Roush Fenway Racing for the next 10 years and never won a championship. He’d be the face of the Ford brand and live comfortably, if a little less successfully, for the rest of his life. Then he could have retired and become the next Jeff Burton, a great analyst who never got to hoist the Cup and may now be looking back and wondering “What If?” at points in his career.
But Edwards isn’t planning and wondering that in retirement. He came to Joe Gibbs Racing to win championships, not to guest host daytime TV shows. Edwards has shown a lot of promise in that regard, having won four races in the last two years and almost made the final four last year at Homestead. He enters the Chase in a position somewhat similar to Cam Newton in the Super Bowl last season. Both were and are marketer’s dreams and their abilities have hinted for a long time that they could be the next face of their respective sports. Now Edwards needs to do what Newton didn’t do and become the face of the sport by winning a championship.
Pros
Edwards enters the Chase with an average finish of 12.7, his best since tying for the championship in 2011. He and crew chief Dave Rogers seem to have clicked this year after being paired in the off-season, with Edwards already having the same amount of wins, top fives, and top 10s as he did all of last year. Finally, “Cousin Carl” has been stout on Fridays this year- his average start of seventh is second only to Denny Hamlin. Pit box selection is still a huge factor in how great pit stops will be on Sunday, so a good qualifier always has a good advantage.
Cons
Edwards hasn’t shown a lot of speed on 1.5 mile tracks, a track type that makes up half of the Chase schedule. He finished second at Kentucky, but that was with a lower downforce aero package that won’t be used during the Chase. Edwards has never really been a big winner either; he won the Coca-Cola 600 last year on fuel strategy and won the Southern 500 that year only after a fast pit stop. Before Bristol this spring, where he led over half the race and won, Edwards hadn’t led more than 100 laps in a race since 2013.
Overall
Edwards will be a threat to win the championship and will probably make it to Homestead. The question will be, can he survive the pressure? He did in 2011, finishing second in a race isn’t a meltdown, but he still lost the championship. The Chase is much more pressure filled since the switch in format a couple of years ago.
