Author: SM Staff

In Texas it was Kyle Busch who took on NASCAR and lost. Sunday in Homestead-Miami it was Kevin Harvick in the same position with the same result.

Coming off pit road lap 187 in the Ford 400, Harvick would have had the race lead and those five valuable championship points. But just moments later he was informed that NASCAR busted him for speeding when he was coming onto pit road.

Harvick began to melt on the radio, saying that NASCAR and their pit road timing and scoring made a mistake.

“That’s just them doing what they do best,” Harvick radioed in reference to NASCAR.

His No. 29 pleaded their case to NASCAR officials and lost, Harvick had restart at the rear of the field.

“I don’t think that penalty will ever settle in my stomach,” said Harvick.

“When you read me off of my pit road times of 49.6, 49.4 50.8 and then 49.6; and there’s only a handful people that get to see them, I won’t ever settle for that. I don’t know how you can be speeding when you’re on the bumper in front of you if the other guy is not speeding. So that’s about it.”

This was not just any speeding penalty.

It was a penalty that had huge implications on the Chase for the Championship and Harvick trying to win his first title. The fans immediately started screaming that NASCAR was attempting to help Jimmie Johnson win his fifth straight championship, which he went on to do.

Harvick had fans rooting him on to dethrone Johnson, they were sick of the same old story year after year. For a little bit on Sunday afternoon, it looked like he could actually do it. There were also the fans that wanted to see Richard Childress Racing win a championship for the first time since 1994. And of course, all the Dale Earnhardt Sr. fans just wanted to see his old car rise back to the top.

Other fans started to scream that NASCAR’s pit road timing and scoring malfunction, much like Carl Edwards claimed last year when he and many others were busted on pit road during a Nationwide Series race.

In the end the penalty didn’t matter because Johnson finished second to race winner Edwards as Harvick came home in third place. The final point standings list Harvick in third position and 41 markers behind Johnson.

That’s how close things were because even if Harvick had gone up and led the most laps and won the race, it wasn’t a guarantee that he was going to win the title. That didn’t stop the emotions from flowing though and feeling as though they had been done wrong.

Except, it wasn’t the only highlight of his day.

After the speeding penalty and having to work his way through the field, Harvick came across Kyle Busch and the two made contact on the frontstretch. Harvick sent the young driver spinning and out of his way.

Busch hit the wall hard and his No. 18 M&M’s Toyota then burst into flames. In his interview Busch called Harvick two-faced, saying that when they talked earlier in the day about how they were racing each other, everything was fine.

“We just got dumped by a dumb bonehead move,” Busch said. “It’s very unfortunate. I hate it for my guys. We don’t have next week to come back to. Now we have next year to come back to.

“I guess it’s that time in the race to put your bonehead cap [on] and do that. I talked to him this morning at the drivers meeting about last night [in Nationwide] and how we raced and everything was good. He’s such a two-faced guy that you can never trust that guy.”

According to Harvick however, things were a little different.

“As far as the 18 incident, he raced me like a clown all day,” he said a few times after the race. “Three-wide, on the back bumper, running into me, and I just had enough.”

When Denny Hamlin, Busch’s teammates at Joe Gibbs Racing, chimed in that Harvick’s teammates raced him the same way throughout the race Harvick simply replied, “I just parked yours.”

Take a good look at the first glimpse of a could-be rivalry in 2011.

Both Harvick and Busch are hard-nosed racers who speak their minds. Both love to win and they do it often, competing in all three series: Camping World Trucks, Nationwide and Sprint Cup Series and always coming out on top.

With NASCAR’s new “Boys, have at it” policy, which got a workout this season, time will tell if these two see each other again. Will Busch spend the nearly two and a half months leading up to the 2011 Daytona 500 thinking about how his 2010 season ended?

Harvick will, but for different reasons. He’ll be reflecting what could have been in the championship battle. As for Sunday, it just looked like Kevin Harvick couldn’t win no matter what he did.

In the beginning, there was Chad Knaus and his orchestration of the championships. His design took a young driver to 4 in a row. But then the pack began to catch up and catch on. Making the drive for 5 littered with miscalculations and miscues. A mid race crew change during the chase, lack luster finishes and the closest points battle in chase history would bring the 48 into Homestead. The Chad Knaus lead crew would stumble, not once, not twice, but three times. It would very quickly become evident the championship hopes of the 48 team rested with the man behind the wheel. Could Jimmie do it? Could he drive his way to his 5th championship despite the struggles? Jimmie Johnson answered that question with a very decisive YES I CAN! And he did.

[media-credit name=”CIA Stock Photo” align=”alignleft” width=”300″][/media-credit]But the race was not without questions and incidents that will raise eyebrows forever. The final race of the year began with inconsistencies, with Brian France stating on Friday that NASCAR was a full contact sport and then Robin Pemberton ending the driver’s meeting with the statement that, “‘Have it’ has it’s limits.” The final statement being made in an attempt to detour team mates of the top three competitors from playing a part in the out come of the championship. Something that it appeared did not apply to NASCAR themselves.

A speeding penalty coming on to pit road was handed out to Kevin Harvick who,as evidenced by the video replay, was clearly sandwiched between two cars coming on to pit road, though neither the car behind or in front was found to be speeding. Oddly, the penalty came after the 29 had taken the lead off pit road and would have garnered 5 bonus points that would have been permanent points not effected by positions on the track. “There is no way I was between two cars. You can’t go from 49.1, 49.4, to 50 something between two cars.” Ranted an angry Kevin Harvick. Harvick also commented, “That NASCAR was doing what they do best.” His statement did not go further than that. But the televised broadcast featured a ghost voice that when the penalty was announced, stated,”You are surprised?”

This is not the first time a speeding penalty has altered the out come of a race. But it is the first time that it has played a role in the championship. Part of the issue is that the speed on pit road is determined by gun time, not transponder time. Indy Car, F1 all use transponder time to determine speed. NASCAR continues to hold on the antique method of using a radar gun and the time for sections of pit road. This method increases the chance for human error. Errors that numerous drivers have sworn have cost them positions and races. Speeding penalties are not appeal-able, and NASCAR does not enter into discussion with teams over them. They are blanket penalties handed out immediately after the infraction. This one came two caution laps after the fact.

In fairness, to the champion, the 5 points would not have changed the out come for the championship. Harvick finished 3rd 41 points back. But he would have finished 2nd with those 5 points 37 points down to champion Johnson.

Denny Hamlin all year long has predicted his success with uncanny accuracy. At times it seemed that he was reading it from a script. His confidence took a blow in Phoenix when he had to pit for fuel late in the race and Johnson and Harvick did not. However, coming into Homestead his confidence was again high.

It’s ironic that it would be a poor qualifying spot that would ultimately cost him the championship. Hamlin known for being a strong qualifier and starting in the top half of the field most every race, qualified a deep 33. Coming up through the field he would tangle with Greg Biffle and spin down across the grass. Minimal damage would prove crucial to the performance of the car with the front splitter being bent up. Mike Ford and his crew would make minimum repairs never fully repairing the damage. The car, according to Hamlin “was never right after that.” Hamlin said the incident was no one’s fault just that there wasn’t room for 3 abreast at that time on the track.

At one point Hamlin was caught a lap down when a caution flew shortly after pit stops, forcing him to take the wave around and not pit. It would be a caution brought on by Kevin Harvick and Hamlin’s team mate Kyle Busch that would give Hamlin the chance to pit and regain lost track position. Hamlin would finish 14th without ever being a factor in the race.

The race was dominated by Carl Edwards. Edwards who lead the most laps and won the race never really struggled. The television audience saw little of the racing besides the three championship contenders so how hard fought that win was is only known by those who actually attended.

There is no question, however as to how hard fought Johnson’s 5th championship was. Johnson at one time in the flow of points was 3rd with Hamlin leading by 34. This year Johnson and his 48 team had to work for it. It came down to not the crack crew of HMS or the brilliance of Chad Knaus. Instead it came down to the skills and determination of the driver behind the wheel. Skills that many of his detractors had claimed were substandard and lacking over the last few years. But this year in his drive for 5 Jimmie Johnson showed the world that he is a 5 time champion for a reason. His desire, determination and heart and soul truly do drive the 48 team to the excellence they have displayed on the track over the last 5 years. His place in NASCAR history is sealed. The HMS dynasty of 10 championships is unequalled. And there is no sign that they are looking backwards.

Perhaps however, the most telling part of the celebration came when during the presentation of the cup and the check Jimmie Johnson took the microphone from Alan Bestwick and said, “I got the most important trophy of my life earlier this year when my daughter was born. This is just icing on the cake.” For the first time in his career perhaps, Jimmie Johnson peeled away his vanilla image and showed the world who he is as a man. It was a great view of a great and deserving champion who earned his seat at the head table with the same dignity and honor that he has represented the sport with for the last 4 years.

Many claim that by winning for the 5th time he has, “destroyed all interest in NASCAR.” If that is the case the individuals that will walk away from the sport had little interest in anything but the rock star images in the first place. Those who claim they will never again watch NASCAR because Jimmie Johnson won again and he is a cheater. We will miss you. But more importantly, you will miss the sport as it goes into what could be the most exciting next phase of it’s evolution. For those who claim the script was written before the year even started, I would say if that is so, Jimmie Johnson and HMS got a different one than the one Denny Hamlin quoted line and verse from every week.

To Jimmie and Chad and all the 48 team past and current, and of course Rick Hendrick, Congratulations on adding a new aspect to who you are by being the underdog and pulling it out anyway. You truly are representative of the classic phrase on Any Given Day.

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Congratulations to Todd Bodine and Germain Racing on the Camping World Truck Series Championship. To Kyle Busch Motorsports on it’s first Truck owners championship in it’s inaugural year. Congratulations to Brad Keselowski and Penske Racing on their first Nationwide Series Championship and to Joe Gibbs Racing on it’s first Car Owners Championship in the Nationwide Series. Congratulations to Jimmie Johnson and Hendrick Motorsports on it’s fifth Sprint Cup Series Championship and to Hendrick Motorsports on it’s record setting 10th championship.

That said, to all the competitors in all the series thanks for giving us everything you had to give every single week, you are our heroes. Most importantly, thanks to all the families who shared their loved ones with us so we could cheer our favorite driver and favorite teams. You are the true heroes of the sport and we are forever in your debt.

Jimmie Johnson won his fifth straight championship on Sunday. Just like I wrote last week, his main competition, Denny Hamlin, and Kevin Harvick, made mistakes and had back luck back in the pack. In the meantime, Johnson stayed up front and out of trouble. Qualifying was the key.

[media-credit name=”CIA Stock Photo” align=”alignleft” width=”300″][/media-credit]On Friday, Hamlin, at that time leading by 15 points going into the race, tried teammate Kyle Busch’s qualifying setup. The result was a 37th place starting position. Harvick started 28th, but unlike Hamlin, was able to work his way to the front, but that happened late in the race and wasn’t enough to overtake Johnson and Hamlin.

The question that now will be asked over and over is will anyone else be able to take the championship again. Although Hamlin and Harvick made it close, there was never any doubt in this writer’s mind that Johnson would come out on top from the first race of the season. Rick Hendrick has assembled a crew that has become a dynasty. It’s helped that the tracks chosen for the final ten-race chase are well suited for Johnson’s driving style, but one cannot deny that Johnson has been good almost everywhere. Those with a “glass half full” disposition continue to cry that the other teams just have to get better and beat him is a solution that is not holding water. All the resources of Ford Motor Company, Toyota Motorsports, Chrysler, and other Chevrolet teams had not been enough. Some of the greatest minds in this sport have tried and failed. The No. 48 team will have to make a mistake for anyone else to have a chance, and that’s something that is not likely.

In the seven years that NASCAR has used this Chase format, Johnson has won five times (only Kurt Busch with Roush-Fenway Racing and Tony Stewart with Joe Gibbs Racing have won the championship, and that was in the first two years). Many point to the introduction of the Car of Tomorrow as a leading factor. The much maligned spec car was introduced in 2007 and used full time in 2008. Johnson has won every championship since its introduction. Compounding that was a ban on testing instituted by NASCAR in 2009 which saw the performance of some teams suffer. Johnson’s team and the rest of the Hendrick Motorsports organization never missed a beat during that time, leaving the rest of the field behind. It wasn’t until this season that Roush-Fenway and Richard Childress Racing became competitive again. Could that have been a reason the championship was so close?

Regardless, the accomplishments of the Hendrick Motorsports racing team and Jimmie Johnson cannot be ignored. Congratulations to all involved. But for the good of the sport, let’s hope it’s someone else next year, but if not, you have to admire what has been done by that organization. To the victor go the spoils and that’s only fair.

When Matt Kenseth and his No. 17 Crown Royal Ford Fusion team made the Chase for the Sprint Cup Championship back in September, his fans didn’t hear the congratulations of being among the top 12 in the playoffs. They didn’t hear about how Kenseth was among the best in the business for this season who would be competing in the toughest 10 races of NASCAR.

[media-credit name=”CIA Stock Photo” align=”alignleft” width=”300″][/media-credit]No, what they heard was that Kenseth shouldn’t have been in the Chase at all.

It has been a rare season for a man that has built a career on consistency, although at the start of the 2010 season it looked like Kenseth was going to be in typical form. Through the first five races he had five top 10 finishes, the worst of those being an eighth place in the season opening Daytona 500.

Working with new crew chief Todd Parrott brought not only confidence and excitement, but also optimism. They finished second in Atlanta in March and then third at Dover in June after leading for 15 laps.

Now through the first 16 races run Kenseth led in nine of those events, but then things started to get rocky. By mid-June as the team sat seventh in points, Parrott was released from his crew chiefing duties.

Team owner Jack Roush felt the team wasn’t hitting on things during the race weekend or learning in the practice sessions.

In came Jimmy Fennig. Kenseth and Fennig already had a pre-established relationship and a good one. While things weren’t going to change overnight, the hopes were high that the crew chief search was over.

“You hate changing stuff around all the time because it’s hard to get any kind of consistency going … it’s hard to build on stuff,” said Kenseth.

Through the summer months the team continued to ride the roller coaster. The next six races resulted in finishes of 12th or worse before a fifth place at Michigan before the Chase started just weeks later.

To some they squeaked by and made it in. To others they were taking the place of more deserving teams such as Jamie McMurray who a strong case was made for. Kenseth and the entire Roush-Fenway organization never stopped working though and they knew that it was a only a matter of time before they became factors.

In the third race of the Chase, Kansas, he led 26 laps and finished seventh. The following week at California where he’s won at before he started third, led 29 laps and 40 laps remaining while he ran in the top 10 the engine started to go sour. He finished 30th and sat 11th in points, still facing the critics that said he would finished 12th in points.

Over the last few weekends though, those critics have gotten quieter.

Kenseth finished sixth at Charlotte, 15th at Martinsville, and 16th at Talladega after leading 12 laps. Now they quietly sat eighth in points as the focus and attention turned to the top three in the championship battle.

Entering Texas only twice this season had RFR been able to celebrate victories, both coming from Greg Biffle. None of their three drivers, Kenseth, Biffle or Carl Edwards was going to win the title as all three were enduring their own struggles in the Chase.

Texas though is one of Kenseth best racetrack and he came with one half a lap of winning his first race since February of 2009. Biffle dominated the race and Edwards had won the Nationwide Series race the day before.

Next came Phoenix where Edwards swept the weekend and Kenseth earned another top 10 finish. Entering the final weekend of the season the team that had fought all year long was sitting fifth in the championship standings.

Yes, fifth.

Winless and with a pole, they’re among the drivers that have been in the spotlight all season long. The 14 top 10s and six top fives they’ve complied is the worst of any driver in the Chase, but through the elimination of mistakes and wrecks it’s helped their points climb.

Before the Chase they led just 35 laps. In nine races of the 10 in the Chase, they’ve led 72 laps.

“All our cars [Roush-Fenway] seem to be faster the last few months, so lately it seems things have been going better,” said Kenseth at Homestead.

“Last week [Phoenix] I thought we had a shot at it without having that pit road penalty on our last pit stop,” he said. “It feels like we’re gaining momentum and things are smoother and cars are quicker and we’re understanding each other probably a little better.”

Sunday at Homestead will mark Kenseth’s 400th career start in the NSCS. He’s reflected only a little, just to think about former crew chief Robbie Reiser whom he once drove for and then won a Cup title with in 2003.

But there’s not time to reflect too much, because to Kenseth it’s just another race and the last race to get a win this season. He’s only ever gone winless in a season once before, that was 2008. He’s start from the lucky No. 13 spot at a track that has been dominated by the company he drives for and where he won in 2007. There’s nothing like ending the season on a high note, even though it’s in the back of his mind that if something does go wrong he could potentially finish 11th in points.

“It’s been a disappointing few years for me and probably for the team as well,” he said. “I feel like if we can get through Sunday without problems and run as good as I feel we’re capable of and finish fourth of fifth in the points, that’s a highlight of our year, something to hang on our hat on.”

It would be hard to question whether he deserved to be in the Chase then.

The past five races of the Sprint Cup Series Chase have been interesting to watch as the action has focused on Denny Hamlin, Jimmie Johnson, and Kevin Harvick.

[media-credit name=”Barry Albert” align=”alignleft” width=”300″][/media-credit]Back at Charlotte, it seemed that the picture for the final run to the champion was being set.

Following Charlotte, Harvick sat third in points, 77 points behind then leader Johnson, after finishing eighth.

Hamlin sat in second, 41 points behind, after finishing fourth. Hamlin started to show his determination there as the disappointment could be seen on his face as he knew he’d lost ground to Johnson.

Johnson, meanwhile, finished second, after making an incredible comeback.

At the beginning of the race, Johnson had a really loose car, which caused him to spin. Once he was stuck back in traffic, it was thought that he’d be done. However, like many times before, crew chief Chad Knaus pulled out the magic wand and got the car to where it was the quickest car on track. Johnson drove from the back to lead the race for awhile, and then eventually settled for second.

After the oval, the series headed to the Martinsville paperclip, where the Chase took another turn.

Harvick showed he wasn’t backing out of it yet as he finished third, now sitting 62 points behind.

“I just have to thank everybody on this Shell-Pennzoil Chevrolet,” Harvick said after that race. “Those guys on pit road were just awesome today and really kept us up front and in the race. That’s what we have to do. We kept the No. 48 (Johnson) behind us and the No. 11 (Hamlin) in sight. Everybody said this was going to be a two-horse race, and we were right there in the middle of it. So, today was a lot of fun. We came here and finished third at a track that we never had a top-five finish. Right now, we have four more weeks. I’m really looking forward to Talladega and just racing hard.”

Hamlin, meanwhile, made himself known as he won the race, closing the gap to just six points.

“We’re back, baby,” Hamlin said after the race. “Awesome job.”

Johnson, though, held his ground as he finished fifth.

“Good top-five finish today. We certainly wanted to finish higher. But it’s over and done with,” said Johnson afterwards. “It is what it is. Top five is something would have been a good goal coming in here this weekend. We’re rolling into Talladega. We all know what can happen there. Happy to still be leading. Wish the margin had gone the other way. Denny won the race, closed it up. We’ll buckle down, go to work the next four.”

Talladega was the next step on the line for the trio, in which it brought more drama to the Chase.

In a dramatic finish, Harvick barely missed the win by inches as the win went to teammate Clint Bowyer. Though he was still satisfied with how he did, considering he got damage in an earlier wreck.

‎”I didn’t know when the caution came out, but I know I beat him to the line,” Harvick said afterward. “I just got thank David Reutimann for the push….That’s what we came to Talladega to do. We came to win the race, came up a spot short on that, but beat the guys we needed to.”

The second-place finish allowed Harvick to gain points as he now sat 38 behind.

Hamlin, meanwhile, fought his own battles at Talladega as he got to ninth after coming back from being a lap down. This left him sitting 14 points back.

For Hamlin, that was enough as he was ready for the final stretch.

‎”I like that the championship will be decided on three race tracks where the drivers are in control,” Hamlin said afterwards. “Let the best man win.”

Johnson was looking for more, though a seventh place finish was all he could manage.

‎”It’s not the best finish, but we’ll take it,” he said after the race. “I thought we had this thing in control and we could’ve hung on till the end.”

From the Talladega highbanks, the series traveled to the lonestar state, where some of the biggest twists of the entire chase will be recalled from.

Harvick had a consistent day as he finished sixth.

Hamlin, though, made himself known as he took the lead with 29 to go and never looked back.

With the win, Hamlin took the lead in the championship standings by 33 points over Jimmie Johnson, who finished ninth.

“It was just a long day,” Johnson said. “We just gave away so much track position at the beginning and it was tough to get back to where we needed to.

“On the restart, it was the 16 spinning the tires on the restart and all those guys who took tires behind us.”

“It was pretty rough day for sure,” crew chief Chad Knaus said. “We lost the track

position and when you get back there, you don’t know how you should tune on the car.”

The race was an eventful one for the No. 48 team that even included a pit crew swap.

Out of the first seven stops of the day, the No. 48 team lost spots on four of them, costing their driver valuable time. Once teammate Jeff Gordon was wrecked out of the race, Hendrick officials decided to use Gordon’s pit crew.

“Ultimately, it was my decision to make the decision as we were getting beat,” Knaus said. “I hope we get back with the 48 guys and get things back on track.”

“I’m okay with it,” front tire changer Mike Lingerfelt said. “We’re all team players.”

Johnson said, though despite everything, don’t count them out.

“I’ve lost plenty of championships in the past,” he said. “You’re not going to get everything you want every weekend. I can promise you this – 33 back is not where we want to be, but we’re going to work hard on getting it back.”

The change was set to stay in place heading into Phoenix, which the final run to the finish led to the championship standings growing even closer.

Harvick had issues during the day, including hitting the wall and a loose lug nut on a lap 224 pit stop. Harvick used it to his advantage as he pitted under the lap 233 caution, while most of the leaders stayed out, to be able to make it to the end and finish sixth.

“I was pretty down and I thought, ‘There it went,’” Harvick said. “We dodged one, for sure.”

Harvick now sits third in points, 46 points behind Hamlin.

Johnson also used the fuel card as he stretched it the last 88 laps to come home fifth and bring the gap from first to second to just 15 points.

“I’m so happy to put pressure on the No. 11 team,” Johnson said.

Hamlin, meanwhile, led a series high 190 laps before having to pit late for fuel, resulting in a 12th place finish.

“Knowing that we had a very, very good points lead with 15 or 20 to go, that quickly diminishes, it hurts,” Hamlin said. “It hurts when you have a car that can possibly win.

“So for me, I wasn’t aware that anyone was going to try to stretch it [on fuel] and make it. [Crew chief] Mike [Ford] didn’t make me aware that anyone was going to stretch it and make it so I went out there and ran as hard as I could. Unfortunately, our car didn’t have as good of fuel mileage as everyone else’s.”

The Sprint Cup Series now heads to the final event of the season – the Ford 400 at Homestead-Miami Speedway.

Hamlin looks to lock up the championship while Johnson and Harvick look to steal the trophy away.

For Hamlin not to worry about where Johnson or Harvick finish and just purely lock up the championship, he has to win or finish second while leading the most laps. If he falls beyond those two positions, depending on where Johnson finishes, he could lose the championship.

In a sense, for Johnson to win the title, he has to gain 16 points on Hamlin as if he ties, he loses virtue of the tie breaker.

If Johnson wins and leads the most laps, Hamlin has to finish second and tie him in the most laps led category.

If Johnson wins, but doesn’t lead the most laps, Hamlin has to finish second or finish third while leading at least one lap.

If Johnson finishes second while leading the most laps, Hamlin has to finish third or better without leading a lap, fourth or better with leading at least a lap or finish fifth and tie him for most laps led.

If Johnson finishes second while leading at least one lap, Hamlin has to finish fourth or better without leading a lap, fifth or better with leading at least a lap or finish sixth and lead the most laps.

If Johnson finishes second yet doesn’t lead, Hamlin has to finish fifth or better without leading a lap, sixth with leading at least a lap, or seventh and lead the most laps.

The scenarios can continue way beyond that as they are pretty much endless till you get Hamlin finishing last and not leading a lap.

However, there is also a third party – Harvick. Harvick could play a definite factor, depending on how he finishes.

For Harvick to win the championship, he is going to need to gain 47 points on Hamlin and 32 points on Johnson.

Let’s take a look at a couple of scenarios.

If Harvick was to win the race and lead the most laps, he’d need Hamlin to finish seventh or worse, eighth or worse if he led a lap or ninth or worse if he tied Harvick in leading the most. Harvick would then also need Johnson to finish fourth or worse, third or worse if he led a lap, or second or worse if he tied Harvick in most laps led.

If Harvick wins the race without leading the most, Hamlin needs to finish eighth or worse, ninth or worse if he leads, or 11th or worse if he leads the most. He then would need Johnson to also finish fifth or worse, sixth or worse if he led, or seventh or worse if he led the most laps.

If Harvick was to finish second with leading the most laps, he’d need Hamlin to finish 11th or worse, 12th or worse if he led or 14th or worse if he led the most laps. He then would also need Johnson to finish seventh or worse, eighth or worse if he led, or ninth or worse if he led the most laps.

If Harvick was to finish second with leading at least a lap but not the most, he’d need Hamlin to finish 12th or worse, 14th or worse if he led, or 15th or worse if he led the most. He then would need Johnson to finish eighth or worse, ninth or worse if he led, or 11th or worse if he led the most laps.

If Harvick was to finish second without leading a lap, he’d need Hamlin to finish 14th or worse, 15th or worse if he led, or 17th or worse if he led the most laps. He then would need Johnson to finish ninth or worse, 11th or worse if he led, or 12th or worse if he led the most laps.

Their past performances at Homestead-Miami would believe you to think that Harvick would have an advantage.

In Harvick’s past nine starts at Homestead-Miami, he has no wins, four top fives, seven top 10s and an average finish of 8.4. Last year he finished third while in 2008, he finished second.

For Johnson, in his past nine starts at Homestead-Miami, he has no wins, three top fives, six top 10s and an average finish of 12.7. Last year, he finished fifth while the year before, he finished 15th. Though Johnson has taken the conservative approach the last four years due to just looking to lock up the championship so with the need to push it, he could step up it up to a win.

Hamlin, meanwhile, has already done the duty of stepping it up to a win. In his five past starts, he has one win, three top fives, three top 10s and an average finish of 10.6. He is last year’s winner as he won the race to close out the season, making his claim then that he was going after the title this year.

As a whole, this looks to be one of the best championship fights that NASCAR has seen in awhile and it definitely will go down to the wire. Depending on what driver pushes it to most, what teams performs the best on pit road and what crew chief makes the best adjustments will determine who your 2010 champion is.

[media-credit name=”CIA Stock Photo” align=”alignright” width=”300″][/media-credit]THE STORY BREAKDOWN

All eyes will be on Denny Hamlin, Jimmie Johnson and Kevin Harvick next Sunday afternoon. We will carefully monitor their progress lap after lap. Every time one member of the Chase trio has a change in track position you can expect to see a graphic from ESPN2 informing us how that change impacted the Chase numbers.

Denny Hamlin, and his #11 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota, is at the forefront of the Chase shootout with a 15 point lead over Johnson and a 46 point advantage over Harvick. Mathematically speaking, there are two possible ways for Hamlin to clinch the Chase. The first is rather obvious: win the race. The second clinch scenario is finish second after leading the most laps in the race.

Both scenarios are very doable for Hamlin this Sunday. Among the three championship contenders he’s the only one who has won a race at the Homestead-Miami Speedway. In fact, he’s the defending race winner from last year after starting 38th. In five starts at this speedway Hamlin also has three top five finishes, three top tens and a healthy average finish ratio of 10.6.

But the one thing that Hamlin really seems to have at this point in time is a sense of razor sharp focus. In recent weeks he has been viewed as being somewhat arrogant but we should not be buying into that. When the green flag falls on the Ford 400 next Sunday a highly focused Hamlin will be concentrating on the job at hand. That razor sharp attention factor could lead to the championship he’s always dreamed of.

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The Homestead-Miami Speedway is one of the few tracks on the Sprint Cup circuit where Jimmie Johnson hasn’t visited victory lane. In nine starts there he’s accumulated three top five finishes, six top tens, an average finish ratio of 12.7 and he’s won the pole position twice.

He of course holds the Sprint Cup Series record for winning four consecutive championships and there are many observers who truly believe that his drive for five campaign could happen this Sunday. It’s that experience he has in winning a championship that could be a major factor this weekend. Johnson fully understands the procedure and is an expert at dealing with the stress levels it presents.

The other outstanding quality this team has is the combination of Johnson and crew chief Chad Knaus along with their combined ability to display grace under fire. No matter what racing surprise develops, or the intensity level that it creates, this duo seems to calmly address the issue and work their way through it. That’s also the mark of champions.

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Kevin Harvick will also be seeking his first win at Homestead-Miami this Sunday. But in nine starts there he has the best set of numbers among the Chase contenders. That includes five top five finishes, seven top tens and a low average finish ratio of 8.4.

At 46 points out, Harvick will be the driver to watch on Sunday. Expect him to take a very aggressive approach to this race prepared to do whatever’s necessary to launch a charge to the front. Realistically, he has nothing to lose and everything to gain by this approach. He put it best himself in recent days when he said “the worst that can happen is we finish third in the Chase.”

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There are many other factors connected to the Ford 400 that could have an impact on the final resolution of the Chase. While the focal point may be on three drivers, we need to remember that there’s going to be 43 starting this race and many of them will have their own team agendas well outside of the Chase profile.

The Homestead-Miami Speedway is the only track on the Sprint Cup circuit that four time champion Jeff Gordon hasn’t won at. Then again, his last win dates back to the fall race in Texas last year. Look for Gordon to pull out all the stops to rectify this situation next Sunday.

After an extremely dismal 2009 season, Richard Childress Racing was thrilled to see all three of their cars in the Chase line up this year. However, despite some very strong efforts, Jeff Burton is the only Childress driver who has yet to find victory lane this season. Look for a very aggressive effort from the 31 team on Sunday.

Kurt Busch certainly has a personal agenda connected to the Ford 400. It’s his farewell race in Penske Racing’s #2 Miller Lite Dodge. Next year Busch will be moving to Penske’s #22 Shell/Penzoil Dodge. Considering the legacy of the blue deuce in NASCAR racing, it’s a safe bet that Busch would love to exit this ride in victory lane.

However Busch has yet another agenda he have to concentrate on this Sunday. He’s currently tenth in the Chase rankings but only five points ahead of Clint Bowyer. Remember, only the top ten gets the coveted stage, and live television, time during next month’s Sprint Cup awards banquet in Busch’s home town of Las Vegas.

No one should make the mistake of overlooking the Ford contingency this Sunday. Ford holds the Homestead-Miami Speedway’s manufacturer’s record with six wins. All six of those wins have been delivered by Roush Fenway Racing with driver Greg Biffle serving up a record high three of them. Carl Edwards has found his fire again and looked very strong en route to his win at Phoenix last weekend. Matt Kenseth has been showing some strength recently as well. Kenseth will be making his 400th Sprint Cup career start Sunday and would love to honor that occasion with his first win of the season.

Let’s also not forget that anytime a corporation is the official race sponsor as well as having ties to individual race teams then the drivers of those teams has a tendency to work even harder to get a win for their sponsor.

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Since the start of the 2010 season, last February 14th at Daytona, the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series has ran 10,244 laps, 13,777 miles featuring 1,505 starters. Now, during the championship weekend, it all comes down to three drivers, 267 laps and one trophy.

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THE VEGAS BREAKDOWN

Regarding the 2010 Sprint Cup Chase for the Championship, the Las Vegas based World Sports Exchange, (WSE), seems to believe that Denny Hamlin can accomplish his great American dream by winning his first NASCAR title. They’re backing that with 1 to 2 odds. The WSE has Jimmie Johnson ranked at 9 to 5 odds to take his fifth consecutive title. Kevin Harvick has been rated at 10 to 1. These WSE numbers are highly significant in the fact that it’s the first time since January that Johnson has not been on top of their list to win the championship.

Regarding their picks for the Ford 400, the WSE has Johnson and Hamlin dead even at 5 to 1 as favorites to win. Carl Edwards is behind them at 6 to 1 followed by Harvick at 7 to 1. At 8 to 1 you will find three time race winner Greg Biffle with Kyle Busch right behind him at 9 to 1. The top of the WSE list closes out this week with two time winner Tony Stewart and Jeff Gordon ranked at 15 to 1. Either one of those two drivers could turn out to be a lucrative long shot wager.

Now for the weekly disclaimer: NASCAR wants us to remind you that these numbers are for informational and entertainment purposes. They neither encourage nor condone the placing of wagers on their events.

This is normally where I offer some silly alternative regarding how to spend the left over coins from your weekly budget. I’m not doing that this week. This is Ford championship weekend and every NASCAR fan in the country has the right to get a little wild and crazy.

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THE RACE BREAKDOWN

The Ford 400 is 267 laps/400.5 miles around the Homestead-Miami Speedway’s 1.5 mile oval.

The race has 45 entries vying for the 43 starting berths. Nine of the entries are on the go or go home list meaning they don’t have a guaranteed starting berth because they are currently outside of NASCAR’s top 35 in owner’s points. These teams will have to rely on qualifying speeds to make the race.

Qualifying day is going to be important because it will establish pre race track position and, of equal importance, determine the order of pit stall selections. The track qualifying record, 181.111 MPH, was set by Jamie McMurray back in November of 2003.

The first NASCAR Sprint Cup race was held at the Homestead-Miami Speedway in November of 1999 and was won by Tony Stewart. Since that time there has been 11 Cup races at the speedway that has sent eight different winners to victory lane.

The Homestead-Miami Speedway has progressive banking in its turns measuring 18,19, and 20 degrees. The two straight-aways only has four degrees of banking.

The pit road speed is 45 MPH.

The weather forecast for race day Sunday calls for sunny skies and daytime highs around 76 degrees. Because this is solely a daytime race, track temperatures could be a concern for crew chiefs. Also of concern will be the opening phase of sunset, towards the end of the race, when drivers will have to endure a severe glare on their windshields while going down the front straightaway towards turn one.

The Ford 400 will be broadcast live by the ESPN2 Network with the pre race show beginning at 12 pm eastern time. The race re airs will be Monday morning, 330 am et, also on ESPN2 and again on Wednesday afternoon, 230 pm et, on SPEED.